Thrill a Minute Thursday

Vista release today may push MSFT past 30 today.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061130/microsoft_vista.html?.v=7

http://www.microsoft.com/windowsvista/

MSFT DEC 30′s @.25-.30

AAPL moved up last coupla days only to deceive. Hat trick today ? or will it break away?

Retail in play- WMT wars about flat xmas sales-puts anyone?

Hi Phils,
I think that you start to have a “Cramer” affect, MTU is up almost 2% already.

Phil- your thoughts on TOPT BIG selloff Jan 5′s?

wow the spy dropped hard. may pick up some 140′s here

gotta be mindful of end-of-month/beginning-of-month “window dressing.”

and end-of-year tax-loss selling. I would think some of the year’s biggest losers would be good candidates for puts, obviously. Phil, any ideas there?

DOW is under 12,200. Uh oh.

All these orders for Boeing explain the rise in TIE, RTI ATI. Phil do you think these guys have more room to rise? I would think so

U.S. natural gas supply down 32 bln cubic feet: Energy Dept.

Crude @ 63 — XOM up to $76.7 — wow!

jumped on the BTU Jan 50′s at $1.20…nat. gas supplies down…let’s see what happens…

oil sector looking strong

Hey Kustomz, if SHLD closes below 50MA you’ll owe me another double cheese! What a POS looking chart! Got to sit my hands again not to short the hell out of it. Wonder why the folks you mentioned were so bullish on that dog. G/L

Thanks, Tom.

VLO down turn. Time to short xom??

Tom blogging again is a good thing!

profs are u there?
Your thoughts on DHI BZH puts?
Am still holding mine and thinking of adding more
My issue I have DHI dec 25 puts (BZH in Jan) and afraid I’ll run out of time

i agree, blogging again is a good thing Tom.

2 thoughts as a long time follower. Maybe you up the intiial fee and go with a smaller audience. i’m game for anything up to $100 although i think anything over $50 will limit your future audience dramatically. when you grow the site you bring down your fee..you’ve struck me as a real honest type so shouldn’t be a problem. i know i’ll just bag my telechart subscription and donate the money to you and let you do the scans. just kidding

the other thought is that you continue on for free a bit longer. you might have jumped the gun on going pro because so many people in your reader base might have just dicovered your site a few months ago. might take a few more months to bring them along.

loving the RRC trade although i must confess that i’m short OIH right now on a weak opening price signal. will be covering before the crooks get their hands on it at noon.

Dan

Cramer sez that XOM is being bought up by large funds so they can show some oil exposure by year’s end. If that is true, can someone please tell this newbie why XOM and OIH track as if they were the same stock?

WHOA..TOM! how did we go from cheeseburger to DOUBLE cheeseburger? Nice try sneaking in that DOUBLE i see Phil’s been more of an influence than i had previously suspected.

TOM i suspect there are many that are thinking the same, another test of 172 without a breakout would probably confirm your short anything below 169 and its a long way down to 160.

TXN now what to do with that? Still holding a small position long had thoughts of adding on today’s drop but couldn’t find the courage to pull the trigger. Not much short interest in TXN thinking longs feel its too cheap here.

The market wants to run, you can see it on every pull back. Think smart money stopped buying long time ago.

SNDK good play for a dead cat bounce. WOULD NOT HOLD IT LONGER THAN A QUICK TRADE!

AQNT weird action today. There was a big purchase at 9:55 despite the daily being bearish for so long. Smelling a TA character change in progress here I had to get long in case it’s confirmed by EOD . Anyone knows something on it? Tx

shiv, maybe they have a tie-in to Surveillance (and await YOUR move), LOL. I feel that way once in a while.

Maybe you could lighten up a bit and join the TA people for a while… they’re not getting a double every day, but Tom2oc is certainly putting points on the board. You could be subscriber # 39 !

sold my oih and xle puts profitably. also was short BHI; covered. May look to reload.

AAPl – is hovering around without breaking out – The only thing I see is the option time value causing degradation in Calls & puts

Looks like Cramer’s oil pump failed.

Seeing that or debt has increased substantially i would say we are the main reason for China’s growth, whats our contribution to India’s GDP.

I would be out of SNDK 44.40-- 44.60.

Kustomz! LOL! You must have misread my reply to you yesterday when I upgraded it to a double cheese!

Phil, first I said $62 oil wouldn’t kill the Dow as per your premarket commentary of yesterday, not 63. Second, even 63 will not kill the Dow! And raise this 65 if you wish, no problem. Third, I thought you had a longer horizon than daytrade, sorry, but still 60 points down after yesterday’s run is not what I call killing the Dow.

Dow needs strong oil. Heck been making a killing for 3 years on strong oil.

Careful with those oil puts Phil, as long as the market goes up, people will continue to pour money into the energy sector because like said yesterday, they are addicted not to oil but to oil stocks. Oil patch IS the market so if you’re bullish on the market, you’re bullish on the energy sector (but if you’re bearish on the market then fine to be bearish on energy). Same bloody thing as the homebuilders sector that blew up in August of ’05. But we’re talking much more $$$ here with the energy. This will go on until the market finally corrects after this 3 1/2 years old oil induced bull market. And you’re aware that TA tells me that the best odds is for this to happen before July of next year. Whenever this happens, then it will be time to load up on oil puts but until then I remain bullish on oil and the market. I’m waiting for a normal FIB pullback after that big energy run up in November to add to oil plays. G/L

just shiv,

not as uncanny as you think – “they” KNOW what everybody has. they try to stop out as many people as possible, up or down.

What are your takes on SBUX?
I was hoping for a bounce back, but its still trending down, now trading at 35.29.
How low do you think it will go before it heads back up?

Phil/The Masses,
Any opinions on China Mobile’s (CHL) recent pullback, a buying opportuinity perhaps? I’ve looked at some of their figures and, frankly, they look incredible. To my eyes there’s still a lot of value in the price.
JoH.

Dan, just saw your note. Thanks for the offer but not going back to blogging. Money has been too good this week after all that free time I now have to research and find the hidden gems. Just enjoying the last few days on Phil’s site. Heck, I’ve been reading and commenting on his site almost since day 1. A little nostalgia before the site is shut down.

Careful on these OIH!! There was a big breakout for a large bullish falling wedge in October and this stock will be under the influence of it for many months to come. Been bullish on it for months and for me it’s a buy the dips affair. Unless proven otherwise by a TA reversal event, this OIH is going way way up, probably to all time high in coming months. Only thing to do is to see those TA character change when they happen but until proven otherwise, it’s Newton’s law! The stock will continue to trend until something stops resulting in a TA character change. Reason why the old mantra: the trend is your friend… G/L

Well this is a twofer but it feels like a threefer. Day in day out, reading every comment becoming a massive fan of the Philster and the Tomahawk and then boom crash bang wallop! Tom is gone, taken away from us from the same deadly and accurate missile we were hoping to ride for his own gains….and Philster goes private with the validation of the Wall Street Journal……and for the little guy…..well the hope is gone……this is Jerry signing off…..*thoroughly depressed* — will try to scout you out Tomahawk with my radar — until then fellow fantasticos….siyonara, over and out.

adios & ciao.

irrespective of a paid site or not, Phil should still run something here. His articles are interesting, insight good & we would all benefit from it.

Tom should continue to monitor & advise with his TA Logic

Everyone could vent, have fun (depending on how things are) and share stuff too

Phil,

I’m not as smart as you (or Tom, or any of the rest of you)(I’ve always had to work for a living) but could you explain to me why, if the government wants/needs the market to keep going up to keep foreigners interested, why the Big Boys would try to stop us little guys out every chance they get? even if we are long as well, going along with it?

seems counter-productive to me, turning off the “retail” investor which they say they need so much.

————————

going pro will make you more of a target for the Big Boys to go against you. your subscribers will suffer for it. you know “they” troll the blogs?

don’t get me wrong, I value your insights. I just think you are setting yourself up for failure (?). you say that you are an “amateur.” how many pros don’t do that well? look at Cramer’s track record.

SNDK was a nice quick trade.Would not risk it going into the afternoon. Sox has been taking it on the chin last 2 days.

Almost bought INTC story out RACK using more INTC chips. Doesn’t need much of a push to get back to 22.
At this point would rather have the strenght to buy into futher weakness.
NASDAQ has been a lager, think its a safe bet.

D,

The registration link was posted on 11/20. It’s http://www.jotform.com/form/63203852512

Phil, I pre registered a few weeks ago and wondering if you plan to ping me with confirmation/instructions ? Looking forward to your new site. Thanks.

TXN on fire anything over 29.80 and we are off to the races.

So, you are saying off to the races down?

Tom2oc,
I think you will get that triple cheeseburger.
Cheer,

so now there pumping the SOX while saying that inventory is a concern..

dumb question of the day: How do you grow an industry that still can’t work off it’s own inventory? Sounds alot like the housing market….

It has disconnected from reality. The SOX is the laggard…if that gets rallied with it cutting starts and generally having too much inventory(cough, oil, cough) then I truly am going away until this madness ceases.

M

This is setting up to be a real rally, if TXN gets over 29.80 we could finally see it up +1 today something i have not seen in TXN in a long time.

Oh boys….looks like we’re green…..

Shane, Too funny! Thanks, looks delicious!

Gee, folks, this site is shutting down soon and it was a real pleasure to chat with y’all and give my TA input for whatever it was worth but I just want to say this: this market turning green I saw it coming simply by following the GOAX rules. You’ve got them so up to you to use them or not but regardless what the PHDs down in Stockholm think of them, they WORK and kept me on the right side of the market intraday and daily for months and months.

Cheers and all the best in your trading!

Tom, I was on your blog there looking for the GOAX rules but I ended up at a “page-not-found” ..? I am looking in the wrong place?

Tom
I hope that by Phil’s blog going private, we would not lose people like u & zman,….. I’m sure Phil would not let u guys go either

Prof,

I feel your pain. That last up-surge hit my stop. I’m out. Now watch them fall. Best of luck to you!

Mort,
Agreed, I think many will not stay long unless Tom,Zman are on the new private site.

Now here’s something worth mentioning.
Louis Navellier, El Toro Permanente, has just sent out a letter to his subscribers with the following opening: “This could get ugly, my dear friend … Blue Chip darlings are barelling toward a massive crack-up.”
He says it’ll happen in the next few weeks and that the suckers are being brought in while the institutions sell.
This guy has been so up on the markets all year.
Comments?

TOM on technicals do you prefer GS to SHLD?

TOM on technicals do you prefer GS to SHLD?

All this talk of cheeseburgers has me salivating!

Just found your blog and I love it. Putting you on my blogrool. Nice job.

Whats happens to the dollar if the YUAN is to trade on the open market? Could this be a possibility as to the current weakness to the dollar?

Trying to keep from buying GS but the weakness is tempting ahead of earnings.

Tom2oc,
You are very good at TA.
1. Why don’t you keep your blog ongoing. Mostly for yourself.
2. Offer TA on you blog for small fee per stock. Have a maximum you will do per trading day. If more than your max, then do those after market closes and post later.
3. Allow comments from readers, so that we can see what others are doing and get their input.

I subscribe to other services, as I am sure that many others here do as well. Sometimes, I get a rec, or read something , but want some TA on a particular stock, or further confirmation before buying. This is where your TA comes in useful, and yes, I would pay you for it!

Email me at btravelling3@yahoo.com. I’d be interested in discussing further with you.

Mort,
Phil might already be doing that

Closing green would be perfect for the market to start its leg up.

Catching top is always bad, saying to myself! Never again.

Shane, i put my money where my mouth is i bought more at 28.73. I like the chart on TXN. We could be looking at TXN 30+.. I always wait for confirmation before buying more…and i got the confirmation. Theres money on the sidelines waiting for the same signals.

Tom2oc,

I understand what you said about being influenced by FA and perhaps you could even do better by just concentrating on TA. However, please consider that money isn’t eveything. I’d guess it’s more fun for you to trade when you’re part of a community and having fun on the job is, imho, just as important as money. Anyway, I wish you luck with whatever you choose.

does anyone on the blog have any thoughts about NMX as a long term play?

http://72.14.209.104/search?q=cache:7EL1Ty25PDAJ:tom2oc.blogspot.com/2006/10/tom2ocs-goax-rules.html+tom2ocs-goax-rules.html&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=1

Here is a recap of the basic GOAX rules:

—————————————-

Rule 1. GOOG AAPL BKX all trending (up or down more than 0.35%) in synch in the same direction and with increasing/decreasing percentages not too distant from each others: Expect a broad trending market from here.

Rule 2. GOOG AAPL trending up by more than +0.35% and BKX relatively weaker (less than half of the increase of GOOG/AAPL, flat or negative): don’t expect much from any tech rally from here and chances are it will reverse given enough time.

Rule 3. GOOG AAPL both trending down by more than 0.35% and BKX relatively stronger (less than half of the decrease of GOOG/AAPL, flat or positive): market will find bottom not too far below current level before possibly bouncing given enough time.

Rule 4. GOOG and AAPL mixed and generally trending in opposite direction: Expect a trading range mixed market with up and down bounces on support and resistance. If in addition BKX is flat (within a variance of 0.35%), expect a flat market from here.

Note: If GOOG AAPL and BKX are all flat (within of variance of 0.35%) the market is considered pausing and the latest GOAX rating remains in effect until the next GOAX character change.

——————————————-

And GM divested GMAC. Looks bleak.

MJ Says – That depends on if I short it again or not. If I short anywhere over 75, 80 is a sure bet!

Tom … is AQNT still a buy .. thx … Mark

Winners and Losers and the Need to Believe

Most option trades are losers. Very few option traders are winners in the long run. I have been a consistent loser during the time I have engaged in option trading (five years). Conversely, I have been successful in beating the market in managing my son’s retirement plan and my own stock investments over a much longer time.

I don’t know if Phil is a long term winner or loser. My impression is that he is very smart, and many of the readers of this blog are looking to follow his trades. The rush of playing a short term winner is gratifying and addicting. Following a winning trader on a blogsite is like playing the Masters with Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson without anyone watching your errant shots. No one came to watch you at either venue

Trading systems generally don’t work very long. Newsletter writers are better at selling newsletters than making money investing. So are option trading services. My best run of trades was going contra to the recommendations of a well known option advisory service--65% winners. If investing were a matter of distilling a nice neat algorithm and projecting it ahead, we could buy our investments and enjoy the ride. However, volatility has always folded the weaker hands in both investing and poker.

I intend to subscribe to Phil’s service and track my record. Perhaps I will do better than on my own, but then its only money.

Hey TOM i was just checking out your blog, first time!
I see its pretty up to date i thought your site was down?
I’m going to spend some time later reading your logs so far looks very interesting.

I how many stocks are you following that are in their cooking modes?

Chuck,
I am totally agreed with you, Phil FA is so great but to make money out of his FA is not so great,I don’t think his record is good either, I followed him for quite sometimes, he was so wrong on oil put and may other GRMN,CAT….

Just shiv, patience is all that is needed. AAPL will take off soon. AAPL is the most loved stock in wall street.

Had to short AEOS. Wonder how this bull market can keep going up if the consumers keep their wallets in their pockets. Be careful with this market, something smells bad. Might be end of month window dressing.

LOL. XOM gets bad news, so naturally, it frigging SOARS.

please provide the goax rules link someone

thanks!

crushed option trader

Headline on CNN: ” Americans drive less for first time in 25 years”

No doubt this means a 5 point gain for XOM tomorrow.

I don’t know about “RealMoney” but I subscribed to thestreet.com options advisory for one year. Lost big bucks.

Last day of the month and with retail sales below we will transition into semi’s banks etc…consumer rally may be over this is the scary part of the BULL Market …economy teetering on recession …some inflation from previous run and now need interest rate cuts to keep the Bull going …interest rates are doing there part for now but beware if there is a break in BONDS and mostly everyone has been a bond bull.
Optimism got way to high and we needed and need scares but hopefully can grind higher again after that unrealistic run ..just 2-5 % slowly will make me happy …can’t become a total BEAR until there is 0 chance of an interest rate cut. If we do see a better chance of a cut the Bull will continue and maybe accelerate but not with these optimistic conditions …need some really scary days…Vix popped on Monday but is now back down ..needed back to back down 130 days …now we will have to go back down again and you know how much fun that is !!!
Hedging again with QID and DOG but long NSM , ALL and XLK

Good luck. Tom …thanks for the recommendation of X got some dec calls yesterday

TTT

Thanx Chuck.

One thing to keep in mind with the goax rules is the % up or down is measured from different starting pts and you need to track these (I use an excel spreadsheet already set up so I just need to input current values). For example, the .35 increase can occur in all three indicators in a 1pm-2pm evaluation but will show a decrease overall for the day. By taking these snapshots throughout the trading day you could be ahead of the game in playing market moves.

This has been a bad year for me, down 13% of my net worth… today was the worst. I sold AAPL at it’s low and shorted it… then covered at its high… and by high and low I mean around 3 cents of the highs and lows. I don’t know of anyone that can do any worse than that.

When I saw the DOW go under 12200… I dumped AAPL and shorted and lo and behold it reversed direction completely…

I’d have to say I get entertainment value from following these nice discussions and great posts but I’ve been losing even more money now.

Has anyone ; even his excellence, been profitable over the last 5 years
consistently?

Please let me know what helped the most?

Anyone tried Dorsey Wright point and figure approach?

Thanks!

Jack

Regarding critism of Phil’s recommendations by various. YOU NEED to read his rules, that should be rule #1,2and 3, and practice w/o money. You are losing this week, but don’t pay attention that Phil is recommending CASH this week and playing a little with oil profits.
His blogs in comments are quick and to the point and critical to understand and follow, if you check in only infrequently you are going to get into trouble.

Lots of interesting posts and I’ve enjoyed reading them. The ONLY way that I have ever found to consistently make money in options is with credit spreads, and the best at that is Mike Parnos at Option investor.com. He is the Couch Potato Trader. It’s very boring investing, but if you do it correctly, you will make money consistently. That’s the main thing that I do ‘ although I enjoy Phil’s take on things and once in awhile I’ll even take his advice.
By the by, I was a Commodities Broker for several years and am very familiar with the shenanigans at the NYMEX. The only thing I would say is this: I would NEVER short Oil in this environment.—- All the best.

I agree with the bull put credit spread concept (sell out of the money puts and buy one strike lower). The position is hedged so the movement is slow but the declining time value works for you. It’s not as exciting as a naked call or naked put position but you can consistently make money even if you’re slightly wrong about the direction of the stock. If you’re right about the direction, it’s a no brainer of course.

Same goes with a bull call debit spread, of course.

I have spent most of the last 5 years trading options in an exercise to see how long I could get my capital to last before I frittered it all away. Only in the last year have I truly understood what it takes to make money in options. I believe there are only two ways for us true amateurs to win.

1) You are a great option trader. Not a good option trader. A GREAT option trader. And just because you are a great stock trader, doesn’t make you a great option trader. They are a different beast entirely. But, these people are probably less than 1% of us. So, screw them and their natural ability. The rest of us have to go with our strengths. John Stockton played how many years in the NBA? Anything can be done.

2) YOU HAVE PATIENCE AND INSIGHT. I have only recently turned immensely positive on my account. My option portfolio, which is sizable compared to my liquid net worth, is up 400% this year. And for only three reasons. AAPL, T, and GOOG. I called the AAPL bottom in March 2003, and had little to show for it until this year. I had consistently closed my option positions right when AAPL had started its 2-3 month climax runs. TWICE. So, I developed my own strategies. I buy options at staggered expirations and sell a few months before hand. That works for me. When it pulled back to 60 this year, I started grabbing it, when it hit 52, I put it all into Jan-08′s because you just don’t mess with the best consumer design, manufacturing, and marketing company the world has seen since the Model-T rolled off the line. Especially in an options trade. You will notice that their rallies end on or near expirations, consolidate and continue up. Or vice-versa on their downtrends.

I firmly believe that the only way for small fish who are not going to daytrade and protect profits and open and close positions many times a week is to only buy into a few stocks. And give yourself some leeway for being too early. And most importantly, only go with the grain. STOP SHORTING AAPL. Seriously! Stop trying to get cute with your timing. If a stock that you believe in is in a bulltrend, don’t short it. And vice versa. You cannot handle (financially or psychologically) the loss. I can tell you first hand how getting wiped out on an AAPL short on a breakout feels. Like shit.

Find a stock you believe in, roll in and out on a weekly basis, not a daily or hourly. Take profits when trends are broken, which is why I closed my Jan calls when AAPL hit $93 on Black Friday. When you get handed a 100% move in 4 days when everyone is on vacation, protect it, don’t try to parlay and go short. We are not that good, that is why we are reading this. When it pulled back to 90, buy some back, and pray that it goes to $87, then bet the farm. That is how we compete. DO NOT DIVERSIFY!!! It will force you into “cute” trades. Trades where you think you see something in a stock you can’t remember why you are even looking at it.

I happened to have similar results with T and GOOG. GOOG, I just watched and watched until it was pushing up against its downtrend line so hard that it had to pop, luckily it did. T I held (foolishly) from a very temporary profit to a 70% loss to a 400% gain over 18 months. Should I have protected my capital, absolutely, but should I stop watching for a better entry point (and greater profit percentage?) Hell no. All of my gains this year are due to those three stocks. Everything else I tried just reduced my taxes.

I hope this helps all you like Just Shiv who have been complaining about your trades. Make fewer trades, understand your stocks better, and pray to God you are sitting in front of the computer when AAPL gaps down 5% for any reason in the world. Until they determine that iPods are the biggest cause of cancer, autism, or global warming, this thing is going to the moon. And anytime it goes on sale, just say thank you and grab some near-term out of the money calls with money you DO NOT NEED. And giggle when it doubles in a week. Even if you only parlay that a few times a year, you will make out big.

In the interest of full disclosure, I own every frickin’ share of AAPL that I can beg, borrow, or steal. I will sell 10% 10 minutes before Jobs takes the stage at Macworld, and every 10 minutes after. This thing is going to $110 before then, and 150 by June.

CNN:

“Homeland Security warns al Qaeda plans to attack and destroy databases of U.S. stock market and banking Web sites, Reuters reports.”

Guess maybe my short positions will be profitable tomorrow after all. Er, either that or destroyed.

FilmFlam,

Thanx, good reading.

Survey- age and location

myself – 28 vancouver bc

Ok, let me jump the bandwagon…

Dont invest in options if you are not following options trading for atleast 18-24 months. Yep, it takes that long to figure out how things operate. dont just jump the gun if you are a stock trader.

Been trading options for 2 years losing more than winning. Ok. I admit I am a bad trader. So.. there it goes. When you win in small bets dont bet big thinking its a home run, you’ll infact have to run from your home!!

Is this a ” losers speakout week ” or what?

Hey.. its all in the education. Keep money in play and dont go bankrupt!

Also, YOU LIVE ONLY ONCE! DONT BURN OUT, NOT WORTH IT.

My names Ed and I’m an optionaholic…

47 Florida and anxious to learn (besides from my own mistakes) !!

32, Los Angeles

Another question… have any of you performed Monte Carlo simulations ?

Yes D…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_methods_in_finance

just curious

Ramana,

I use a 1 hour period for calculating GOAX movements. I believe Tom uses similar to confirm GOAX predictive results, allocating some time after calculating results to help assure results weren’t just an anomaly. Is that correct Tom?

At any rate, the ending values of the GOAX components in my first calculation become the beginning values for my second calculation and so on. I also look at the cumulative day movement of the three to give me additional comfort with the calculated results. Doing the calculation more often doesnt seem to be more conclusive and takes more time, but that is soley my theory. ( so since being a prior auditor, must qualify any conclusions as to their correctness or verifiability, lol)

Bullnotbear, what you’re doing is very similar to what I’ve been doing before I created the GOAX-V indicator which is a leading indicator of the GOAX rules. I now have a streaming indicator plotted on a special chart template and I just have to look at it and see immediately when there is a GOAX character change under way. This is how I got a signal just after lunch that the market was about to reverse green and posted it here. Note that a GOAX-V1L signal is not a GOAX rule 1 signal but it’s telling that the market is trending in one direction and given enough time, might eventually turn into a rule 1. I get about 2 or 3 V1 signals during a day while I get a rule 1 signal only once in 5 to 10 days. Monday was a rule 1 short day very early in the day and this is when only puts should be held.

I’ve been using this leading indicator since I created it on 10/17 and tested it live for a week on the blog with 100% success (see blog on that date for some discussion on it). And that success rate stayed the same ever since. GOAX-V has become my most useful tool in my trading chest. It’s like having a machine that reads the future as a partner. Contrary to GOAX-R, I definitely can’t say it’s a simple system though. It takes into account many technical variables and adjust for bogus runs too. For example, if AAPL turns after an intraday drop and starts trending up in a normal bear flag fashion on low volume (in other words, a bogus run), GOAX-V does not consider it as trend change and deem that it continues to trend down.

This year I sent the GOAX rules as my application for the Nobel prize and the PHDs said it was too simple to have a chance even if it works like clockwork. Next year I’m going with the GOAX-V rules and no doubt the PHDs will like them only because it’s more complex.

Nice post I really enjoyed it.

You can learn more about Monte Carlo on our website.
Black-Scholes Option pricing models use MC analysis.
Options Express has a theoretical option pricer on its website, and the theoretical price of any traded option is derived by using the implied volatility. Implied volatility is based on the statistical variation in prices over time. Until present generation computers, it was difficult to do the differential equations to make such analysis practical.

Like any analysis using math, statistics, and financial assumptions, be careful out there. GIGO applies.

We use MC simulations in helping clients determine insurance needs and retirement income needs. MC shows volatility inherent in any financial product, and why most folks don’t have enough money to fulfill their goals

Bid/ask spreads make it awfully difficult to make money on options. Personal risk tolerance adds another layer, since most option players don’t have the right psychological makeup to do the trades. That can be acquired, however by study and practice.