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Which Way Tuesday

What a refreshing day Monday was, after what happened last week!  On Sunday night, I said, "We’ll likely see more volatility in the beginning of the week."  Today, the market opened lower.  Financials, housing, oil refiners, oil services, and metals all got hit early on and quickly slid

to new lows.  But, at one point, the VIX jumped over 26!  On the members board, I commented, "The market was hitting all those that were still high (PCU/FCX/ACH/BIDU/FWLT/FFIV…etc). But, VIX is so high; not chasing puts right now either. " 

Soon after that, the market started to turn.  And, much to my pleasant surprise, SPX climbed all the way back to above the support levels that we’ve been talking about (1440-1460), closing at 1467.67!  The Dow added nearly 300 points!  Today’s actions pretty much cancelled out  Friday’s damage.   The market now stands in a nice neutral place, waiting for the Feds to make the call.

Asian markets seem to be picking up the same vibes and are waiting to see how the U.S. market will react on Tuesday.  Even though in China, they seem to think that their inflation will be contained.   Hong Kong, China, and Japan are all just slightly in the green after the morning session.  Maybe people are feeling a bit "sheepish" right now, and not sure if they want to be bulls or bears.  There’s certainly no need to act too fast, and there’s nothing wrong with being cautious and patient! 

Both Phil and Zman had been looking for the oil to come down.  Today’s stock market rally was nicely accompanied by a continuing fall in oil and gas prices.  September oil fell more than $3/barrel, and gas futures slid more than 10 cents to settle below $2 a gallon.  Also, on Zman’s site, he is keeping an eye on the companies that are reporting this week.

WYNN reported strong results after the market, sending its shares up more than +10%, to above 118, in AH! LVS also benefitted from the news, going up +3.76 points, to almost 103, in AH! Both LVS and WYNN were featured in my post on 7/30, LVS was trading around 86, and WYNN was trading around 100!  Many our members should be quite "happy" tomorrow morning, as one of our members posted this note:

 

 

 

 

 

So, we wait "cautiously and patiently" for the Feds to decide on the rates tomorrow.  Still holding mostly cash!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

 

 

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Comments


  1. ramana

    Asia Markets : Tuesday, August 07, 2007

    Japan*

    16921.77
    7.31
    0.04%

    Hong Kong*

    21907.99
    -28.74
    -0.13%

    DJ Shanghai*

    479.88
    1.38
    0.29%

    S.Korea*

    1859.82
    4.77
    0.26%

    India

    14992.26
    89.23
    0.6%

    * at close

    Sources: Dow Jones, Reuters

  2. ramana

    Asia and Euro Markets – European Stocks Make Strong Gains Ahead of Fed Rate Meeting

    The major European indexes rose across the board at the open Tuesday, due to solid corporate earnings and a late-session spike in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Monday. Investors were extremely wary of more bad news from the credit market, however, in the run-up to the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate-setting meeting.

    The Fed is expected to leave overnight lending rates unchanged at 5.25%, when it announces its decision at 2:15 pm New York time, but some market watchers are looking the FOMC’s statement to mention the tightening loan market.

    Asian Stocks Mixed

    Asian stocks held steady in the afternoon session Tuesday with markets pulling back from early gains, but managing to stay in positive territory despite lingering concerns about a global credit squeeze. Japan closed flat but both Australia and South Korea finished higher.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/20151110

  3. ramana

    Good morning all

    CTRP – down -$3.50 to $39.78

  4. KeyserSoze

    ONXX – up – $1.38 (4.5%) to $32.20. Earnings after the bell today.

  5. billbigd

    I am confused are there email alerts for Happy trades now. If so I am not getting them.

  6. KeyserSoze

    bbd –
    There are email alerts. The sign up instructions are at the top of Happy’s page and you’ll have to sign up for a free MSN .NET passport when you get to the msn sign up page. Signed up last night. Got the first one sometime around midnight my time. Seems to work well. Not sure how much trouble it is for Happy but it is a very cool technology to be using for this sort of stuff.

  7. happyTrading

    morning all! I just made a new post for today’s comments! Let’s all go over there! Thanks!

  8. jazzkool

    What did you think of the IBD Big Picture conclusion that the market was back in a confirmed rally? Jonah Keri said a lot of positive things, then he ends the article saying that losers outnumbered the up stocks by a wide margin on the NASDAQ, and the IBD 100 was flat–seemed liked he contradicted himself on the market status.

    Jazz

  9. Greg

    Where is everyone?

    Greg

  10. Greg

    Well this is getting annoying. HELLO, anyone home?

    Greg

  11. Mark

    Marco!

  12. Greg

    Polo

    Greg

  13. Mark

    Made a nice round 500% on the WYNN Aug 110′s… and 10 bagger on the Sep 120′s! Good things… mazel…

  14. Mark

    Greg, let’s start a discussion. I take great stock in the below gentlemen’s commentary, but this latest prediction seems extreme. I have a buddy who sends me stuff from ISI a lot, so read it all the time. What’s your take on the below story?

    ISI’s Trahan, No. 1 Strategist, Expects S&P 500 to Reach 1700
    2007-08-07 08:36 (New York)

    By Eric Martin and Matt Miller
    Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) — Francois Trahan, Wall Street’s top-
    ranked strategist and among the most pessimistic, is now the
    biggest bull on U.S. stocks.
    Trahan, head of portfolio strategy at New York-based
    research firm ISI Group Inc., predicted the S&P 500 will climb to
    1700 this year, 50 points higher than the most optimistic
    prediction of 12 other strategists tracked by Bloomberg. That
    represents a 16 percent increase from yesterday’s close and a 9.5
    percent gain from the record high set on July 19.
    After a lending crisis wiped out $1.61 trillion in U.S.
    stock market value in three weeks, the S&P 500 yesterday gained
    the most in four years.
    “I view the recent correction as a bump in the road,”
    Trahan said in an interview. Shares of technology, raw-material,
    industrial and energy companies, which are dependant on economic
    growth, have gained 16 percent or more in the past year. “My
    sense is that’s going to continue. This is still a very good
    backdrop for earnings.”
    Trahan, 38, was voted the No. 1 U.S. strategist in
    Institutional Investor magazine’s 2005 and 2006 surveys when he
    worked at Bear Stearns Cos. He left the securities firm in
    February.
    When 2006 began, Trahan forecast that the S&P 500 would
    finish the year at 1350. He later cut that to 1200. The measure
    closed at 1418.30 on Dec. 31. The prior two years, Trahan
    predicted the S&P 500 would be little changed. The index rose 9
    percent and 3 percent, respectively.

  15. Greg

    Mark: You must have ESP, as I have been lookng at long term charts of the SPx this morning trying to see patterns in the previous corrections. I also believe this is simply a correction in a long term bull market. Look at a 10 yr weekly chart of the SPX, you can draw a parrallel trend channel with the support line starting March ’03 and touching last Junes lows. the duplicate the line and you can find resistance at Jan ’04 and our recent highs. I would like to see the tape move back down to the support line this year, which is the fartherst I think we could correct, but we may not go that far down. You can also draw a shorter term support trendline starting at last June’s low and touching the Feb low. Our current lows have already violated that support line. These corrections seem to take weeks to months to work out and they appear to counter rally back before making a second test of the lows or even lower. So I think we have not seen the lows yet for this correction. I am new to trading options and am no expert on technical analysis, so take my comments here with a grain of salt.

    Greg

  16. Greg

    Mark, one more thing. One the chart I described above: You can creat a third parrallel line that starts at the lows of the correction on 8/04 and touches the lows of the correction last June and our current lows also touch it. This could be interpreted to mean that all three of these corrections have found their bottom at this trend line. That could give weight to the view that this correction has found it’s low and could the tape could start on it’s merry way back up. I think we at least need some basing or a counter rally and retest first. But the market does not usually do what I want or expect. I would hate to miss the next up leg, but am not buying yet.

    What do you think?

    Greg

  17. Greg

    Opps, I meant the Feb ’07 correction not the June ’06 correction touched the support line in my comment above. sorry, typing to fast.

    Greg

  18. Mark

    Sorry, just got back from a surprise meeting… reading your analysis now.

  19. Mark

    Dude, just noticed everyone’s on teh “Tuesday Member post”… let’s get outta here! :)

  20. Greg

    Thanks, I logged on here before that was up and never checked again.

    greg

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