Archive for
February, 2009
by Phil - February 27th, 2009 7:15 am
Boy am I mad!
It was brought to my attention last night that Jim Cramer has stolen my plan, which I called "The 3% Mortgage Solution" in my Feb 9th column, and simply added a point to it and claimed it as his own on national TV. I’m not sure how to feel about that – I’ll be glad if the plan is used of course, but seeing Cramer take credit for my work is a little irritating. In fact, "Cramer’s plan," as laid out, also lifts elements from my 2/16 article – the latest version of my year old plan for immediately ending the mortgage crisis by making the government an equity partner in the homes. So congratulations to Cramer for sinking to yet another new low in broadcasting – I suppose only writers from TSCM, where Jim has overseen the loss of 87.5% of shareholder equity in the past 5 quarters, are worthy of being given credit by the great Cramer while the ideas of us independent bloggers are just his for the poaching…
Other than being shocked last night by Cramer’s flagrant foul, yesterday was a pretty good day. We executed our plan of buying out our short DIA puts into the morning run-up as we rolled up our long puts and we grabbed some XLF puts as our first trade of the day, which worked out well as a day trade. We did a little bottom fishing with UNH and ISRG and caught the IBM rally for a quick momentum play all before lunch. In fact, at 11:20, we were done being bullish as I said to members: "I do expect a big temper tantrum this week. I know I threw one at Bush’s last budget (in fact it was BECAUSE it hid so many costs) and the GDP is going to back up the Doom and Gloom squad tomorrow so still balanced bearish off this level as we haven’t hit one of our goals yet: Dow 7,400, S&P 780, Nasdaq 1,450, NYSE 4,850, Russell 415. Keep that in mind."
We had added long QID puts as general virtual portfolio protection and those are working out so well we are becoming concerned with our April $64 covers – which seemed safely out of range at the time. We had a bit of a false bottom after lunch but I said to members at 1:33: "Not good on XLF – …
Tags: AMGN, APOL, Cramer, DIA, GDP, GMCR, QID, RAH, SKF, SPY, XLF
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by ilene - February 27th, 2009 3:08 am
Please. Remember the old saying, if you have nothing nice to say, say nothing at all. Here’s one reason why.
Courtesy of Joe, at UpsideTrader
Under the stewardship of famous R.I.N.O (Republican in name only) George W., I would constantly suggest that he and his entire administration just shut up, zip it, shut your pie hole. I called it the "pundit podium effect", meaning every time they pontificated rhetoric from the podium, the market would collapse.
Bush and Paulson were good for thousands of lost points on the DOW and now the new guy is doing it too-except faster. Lets’s recap shall we? Two Monday’s ago we were supposed to have Geithner save the world with his boyish good looks and Ivy League charm. What happened? The schmuckweeds on the Hill needed the glory that day for the porkulus plan, so Timbo was pushed back a day until Tuesday. 
Well Tuesday came and he layed a big fat egg, but let me be clear, we were blinded by fog. We were then promised more clarity-but nada. But on Wednesday the big guy grabbed the microphone to save the housing market-again nada, but a goodly amount of outrage. Yesterday, Ben Bernanke the newly anointed Tony Robbins of all things financial spoke, and the reviews were complimentary if not swooning. I was waiting for Variety magazine and TMZ to show up with their best paparazzi. Last night the big guy tried to close the deal with a happy recap of the last few abysmal weeks and bold fresh look forward. NADA again.
But wait—we have a stress test for the financials that we have to now wait a few weeks for. LOL. I’ll give them a f**king stress test. I probably missed a few high level media events in between, oh I forgot, Larry Summers fell asleep at Monday’s impromtu economic summit.
I believe we are down about 1300 points from that Monday. I was so looking forward to leadership I could count on.
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by ilene - February 27th, 2009 2:42 am
Tyler at Zero Hedge explains the crazy market action lately – day trade or die?
Explains why the market performs like a schizophrenic day trader, as investors try to game the greater fool in unison, running the market up and down especially in market leading sectors such as financials. As long as a fund is not the last man in, the first 50% in any wave are set to make profits. While this has long been the modus operandi for SAC and some other notable algo trading outfits (who love throwing around unmerited lawsuits for libel so we will just keep our mouth shut), the fact that it is spreading to most hedgies is shocking, as Buffett’s mantra of buy and hold is officially now dead.
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by ilene - February 27th, 2009 1:34 am
Adam Warner, at Daily Options Report, discusses Contango which is causing strange behavior in the USO.
Houston we have a Contango problem!
Pretty well documented that the USO is a mess as a tracking device for oil. The fund owns a mix of near month crude futures, and as such must roll them each month. Clearly Contango, when the next month trades at a premium to the nearer month, causes problems. If you have to keep taking the net dollar amount you get for the near month and using those proceeds to buy more expensive outer month, you will own fewer and fewer contracts.
USO has tried to solve the problem by first bumping up their roll date, and now apparently spreading it out over 4 days.
Of course they announce those dates. I mean if you are a market participant, would it not behoove you to bid up the next month ahead of the very large buyer you know is coming?
It appears it happened last expiration, and is in progress this go around. Here are some numbers from via FT Alphavile from Stephen Schork of the Shork Report (hat tip Abnormal Returns).
As we outlined at the time, this volatility was largely attributable to “the roll” by long-only commodity index funds, particularly the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO). Open interest in the March contract was 363,757 on February 05th. Per the fund’s website, the USO rolled 85,057 contracts the next day. In other words, the USO held sway over the market, i.e. these funds (USO, S&P GSCI et al) are artificially skewing the front of the NYMEX curve; putting downward pressure as they sell a massive percentage of open interest in the spot over the course of a few sessions.
The USO has since announced it will roll over the course of four sessions instead of one; the April/May roll will take place in between March 06th and 09th. The fund is holding length of 61,940 NYMEX futures, 4,000 NYMEX WTI financials and 30,583 ICE futures, 96,523 contracts in total with a market capitalization (as of last night’s close) of $3.86 billion.
All this length will have to get rolled in a couple of weeks’ time. What’s to prevent front running the roll? Nothing, that’s what. Over the last three sessions
…
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by ilene - February 26th, 2009 11:27 pm
Predictions — interview with author and historian Niall Ferguson, in Globe and Mail.
Harvard economic historian Niall Ferguson predicts prolonged financial hardship, even civil war, before the ‘Great Recession’ ends
Harvard author and financial crisis guru Niall Ferguson has landed with a thud in Ottawa, spreading messages that could make even the most confident policy makers squirm.
The global crisis is far from over, has only just begun, and Canada is no exception, Mr. Ferguson said in an interview before delivering a presentation to public-policy think tank, Canada 2020.
Policy makers and forecasters who see a recovery next year are probably lying to boost public confidence, he said. And the crisis will eventually provoke political conflict, albeit not on the scale of a world war, but violent all the same.
“There will be blood.”
The Buy America penchant pushed by the U.S. Congress in passing the recent stimulus bill was only the tip of the iceberg.
Abu Dhabi buying Nova Chemicals at bargain-basement prices on Monday is a sign of things to come, with financial power quickly being transferred over to the world’s creditors – namely sovereign wealth funds – and away from the world’s debtors.
And much of today’s mess is the fault of central bankers who targeted consumer-price inflation but purposefully turned a blind eye to asset inflation.
The Laurence A. Tisch professor of history at Harvard University, and author of The Ascent of Money, A Financial History of the World, sat down with The Globe and Mail’s economics reporter, Heather Scoffield.
Heather Scoffield: Canadian leaders frequently argue that Canada is in better financial shape than elsewhere in the world, and therefore should fare better during this crisis. Do you agree?
Niall Ferguson: Canada is [considered] a winner because its banks are less leveraged, bank regulation here has been tighter, because its housing market hasn’t been in a bubble quite the same way. It’s tempting to conclude from that … that Canada will be less hard hit in the crisis than the United States. But that is unfortunately wrong. Because
…
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by David Fry - February 26th, 2009 9:57 pm
Dave Fry at ETF Digest, February 26, 2009
Another bullish start turns south. Bulls just can’t sell their “stocks are cheap” canard to investors who aren’t interested. This can be especially true when the news media puts out misleading data on price/earnings ratios as we pointed out yesterday and the day before. Further, as I mentioned in the current Investor’s Business Daily article stocks are hardly cheap and this bear market may continue for some time. The typical length of these markets runs roughly 30 months according to dshort.com and we’re only 16 months into this one by their estimates.
Volume was heavy today especially in tech and breadth was negative.
That’s it for us blogging this week. Tomorrow it’s our podcast and there’s plenty for Greg Newton and I to chat about.
One thing that’s interesting is this populist and conspiratorial article from Paul Craig Roberts who suggests that governments are doing their best to squash gold by their leasing activities. Further, he posits a controversial view that how we’ve been taught to view free trade is all wrong.
Then there is this excellent and thoughtful article regarding Geithner posted in Bloomberg. It’s thorough and well worth reading.
We’re still in a bear market and it’s as simple as that. The proposals from the Obama Administration are not finding a lot of support in markets. Tax increases are outlined here and they’re stunning. It’s hard to get comfortable with increasing taxes during a recession. I wonder how they’ve calculated the increase in tax on those earning over $250K per year. How many people will still be making that kind of money? How many near that level will ask for an amount beneath that level to avoid the extra tax. People behave in a manner to always avoid taxes and this may not be baked in the numbers.
Let’s see how we close February tomorrow. It should be with a whimper I suspect.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: IEF, TLT, TBT, and GLD.
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by ilene - February 26th, 2009 4:09 pm
Corey at Afraid to Trade notes that the Nasdaq is holding up better than the S&P and the Dow. 
Courtesy of Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to Trade
I tend to focus mainly on the Dow Jones and S&P 500 Indexes, but what’s perhaps going unnoticed is that the NASDAQ Index has outperformed them both, having held above its November lows and is showing relative strength.
Let’s take a look at the Daily NASDAQ Chart:
Keep in mind, the S&P 500 tested its 741 November low and the Dow Jones broke it, hitting a 12-year low (the S&P missed a 12 year low by 2 index points). The NASDAQ held 100 points (about 7%) above its lows. Also, the NASDAQ is about 20% above its 2002 lows at 1,100 – that alone shows relative strength over the last few years.
Technology giants such as Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) are well-above their respective November lows which is adding strength to the Index. Other technology companies are holding their own throughout the upward correction in the market since November – some even have confirmed uptrends on their daily chart with prices trading above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.
If we look at the Relative Strength Line (Bottom of Chart), we see that the NASDAQ underperformed the S&P 500 until December when the ratio line broke a down-trend line (signaling the beginning of outperformance) and that trend has continued to this day.
Pairs traders can take advantage of such performance by buying the QQQQs and shorting the SPYs (or equivalents) to try to take advantage of over/underperformance, but that’s a whole other strategy that may not be appropriate for newer traders.
Generally, it’s a good sign for the market when small-caps and technology companies outperform the S&P 500, but we should take nothing for granted in the current environment.
Keep an eye on the NASDAQ and its Relative Strength Ratio for additional clues going forward.
Corey Rosenbloom
Afraid to Trade.com
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by Option Review - February 26th, 2009 4:04 pm
Today’s tickers: YHOO, SWY, ARNA, LCC, AMX, UNH, AET, CI, HD, BAC & XLF
YHOO – Yahoo!, Inc. – Shares of the global internet brand have rallied over 5% to $13.12, and options traders have added to the high by establishing bullish positions across multiple contracts. Perhaps today’s upward move is due to an announcement that Yahoo! may join forces with Microsoft despite the failure encountered with last year’s buyout attempt. A management change emerged also with CFO Blake Jorgensen announcing his departure. There have been several since Jerry Yang handed the reins over to CEO Carol Bartz. The sunny outlook on the stock today was further solidified by the sale of over 2,200 puts at the April 11 strike price for a premium of 64 cents apiece. Calls were purchased at the March 14 strike price where 2,300 were traded at 65 cents each, while at the March 15 strike, 1,300 calls were bought for 57 cents apiece. The highest strike sought by optimistic traders was the March 16 strike price, where 3,000 calls were scooped up at 18 cents per contract. Calls were also in demand in April with 2,200 purchased for 1.08 at the 14 strike price, whereas in July investors traded nearly 3,000 calls at the 15 strike for 1.35 apiece. The most bullish play was certainly at the March 16, as shares would need to rally by another 26% to the breakeven price of $16.57 to yield profits. Option implied volatility has risen from 70% this morning to the current value of 78.5%.
SWY – Safeway, Inc. – The food and drug retailer’s shares have fallen 12% today to stand at $18.59, after fourth quarter earnings failed to meet analyst expectations. The increase in profits in the fourth-quarter by 12% was not sufficient to deter the decline seen throughout today, but one options investor has found a way to take advantage of the downturn. At the April 20 strike price, a buy-write (or covered call) was initiated when one trader sold 7,500 calls for a premium of 88 cents, while simultaneously purchasing underlying shares on the stock when the price was at $19.14. It seems that this investor is doubling up on his gains by pocketing the 88 cents in premium and by betting that shares will rise by at least 86 cents to the 20 strike. If the underlying shares can reach or surpass…
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by ilene - February 26th, 2009 3:12 pm
Mish Shedlock and Paul Krugman are finally in complete agreement. What’s not clear is whether the frogs have any chance of surviving the heat.
Bernanke has fired yet another misguided missile to stabilize the banking system. His new program is called the Capital Assistance Program and supposedly it will restore confidence in banks and get them to lend. Here is a description of the program:
The purpose of the CAP is to restore confidence throughout the financial system that the nation’s largest banking institutions have a sufficient capital cushion against larger than expected future losses, should they occur due to a more severe economic environment, and to support lending to creditworthy borrowers.
Terms
- Capital provided under the CAP will be in the form of a preferred security that is convertible into common equity at a 10 percent discount to the price prevailing prior to February 9th.
- CAP securities will carry a 9 percent dividend yield and would be convertible at the issuer’s option (subject to the approval of their regulator).
- After 7 years, the security would automatically convert into common equity if not redeemed or converted before that date.
- The instrument is designed to give banks the incentive to replace USG-provided capital with private capital or to redeem the USG capital when conditions permit.
- With supervisory approval, banks will be able to request capital under the CAP in addition to their existing CPP preferred stock.
- With supervisory approval, banks will also be allowed to apply to exchange the existing CPP preferred stock for the new CAP instrument.
CAP Facts
1) Amazingly CAP fact sheet states the securities will yield a 9% dividend. However, any bank troubled enough to need the CAP is likewise too troubled to be able to pay a 9% dividend. Banks can’t get a 9% return on borrowed money and everyone knows it. Instead, expect preferred shares to be converted to common at inflated prices.
2) Digging a bit deeper into the fact sheet we see the "Conversion price is 90% of the average closing price for the common stock for the 20 trading day period ending February 9, 2009."
Think February 9 was selected at random? Think again. The first box in the charts below is
…
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by ilene - February 26th, 2009 12:37 pm
Can what’s good for GM now be bad for the country?
General Motors (GM) was founded in 1908 in Flint, Michigan, and grew to be the largest corporation in the world. Its market capitalization reached $50 billion in 2000. In the past week, its market capitalization dropped below $1 billion to levels last seen during the 1920s. The story of General Motors is the story of America. In 1953, at the peak of its dominance, its President, Charles Wilson, declared before Congress that what was good for the country was good for GM and vice versa. Its rise to power and decline towards insolvency parallel the rise and fall of the Great American Republic. Overconfidence, hubris, lack of courage, foolish decisions made, and crucial decisions deferred have been the hallmarks of GM and U.S. GM’s stock price reached $1.77 last week, a 71 year low. It peaked at $100 during the Dot Com boom in 2000 and was still at $50 in 2007. The market has voted and it says GM is bankrupt.
American carmakers have seen their market share drop from 85% in 1985 to 43% today. GM’s market share peaked at almost 50% in the 1960’s. It reached a historic low of 19.5% in January. Its sales plummeted 49% from a year ago. GM has too much debt, too much bureaucracy, too many plants, too many car lines, too many employees, and too many future healthcare and pension obligations. Of course, the only way a company can be in such a disastrous position is through decades of mismanagement. The only logical solution is for GM to enter a pre-packaged bankruptcy with financing provided by the U.S. government if bank financing is unavailable. Shareholders and bondholders will be wiped out. They made a bad investment. Plants will be closed, UAW contracts restructured, management replaced, employees fired, debt written off and future obligations reduced. A much smaller viable company that can compete in the 21st Century would exit bankruptcy in a year or two. A profitable, low market share is preferable to a high market share with billions in losses.
Source: Automotive Data Center
…
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February 23rd, 2012 12:07 am
Courtesy of www.econmatters.com.
By
EconMatters Oil futures spiked more than 2% in one day to their highest level in nine months on Tuesday Feb. 21. WTI front month contract closed at $105.84, while Brent ended at $121.66 on ICE, primarily on investors fear of potential conflict over the escalating tensions between the US, Europe, Israel, and Iran. A second Greek bailout deal of €130bn (£110bn; $170bn) also helped to inject some optimism into the market (which would seem totally mis-placed as we may need to
relive this Greek drama in two years). Nevertheless, the fact remains crude oil market supply and demand has not changed a bit to warrant a 2%+ price jump in one day.
...
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February 22nd, 2012 12:15 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Earlier today, we learned the first stunner of the Greek bailout package, which courtesy of some convoluted transmission mechanisms would result in some, potentially quite many, Greek workers actually paying to retain their jobs: i.e., negative salaries. Now, having looked at the Eurogroup's statement on the Greek bailout, we find another ...
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February 22nd, 2012 11:05 am
Courtesy of Benzinga.
In recent years, traders and investors have increasingly turned to social media to discuss their investments. Now, interested parties can get a scientific look at what is being discussed on a weekly, monthly, and even hourly basis.
Provided by Social Market Analytics, here is the morning social media outlook for Wednesday, February 22.
Most Bullish
Sentiment has been most bullish this morning on two tech companies.
Sourcefire (NASDAQ: FIRE) reported stellar earnings yesterday afternoon, which prompted several analysts to upgrade their price targets on the stock. The company hit a fresh 52-week high earlier this morning, as shares surged over 23%.
Procera Networks (NASDAQ: ...
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February 22nd, 2012 11:03 am
Courtesy of David Grandey.
In today’s market, it’s more important that ever to have a mindset to maintain a sane mental state and stay peaceful calm and centered.
Keep in mind with the markets as stretched as they are, we are in a high risk zone for pulling back as we have been in an accelerated uptrend with barely any pullback to speak of which as we all know can not continue forever — it never does. That said the music can stop at a moment’s notice and odds favor when it does it will be a gap down. So using that as a backdrop let’s look at SXCI. SXCI — SXC Health Let’s say that issue breaks above the pink line and triggers a long side trade. That’s all fine and dandy HOWEVER it’s what happens next that we have no control over. At that point it either follows through or it doesn’t. WE NOR YOU HAVE ANY CONTROL ...
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February 22nd, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
AGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a few weeks ago make AGCO a company to watch.
PCUBUYThe recent earnings history for Southern Copper shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.
PAGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a few weeks ago make Penske a company to watch.
FEICBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected va...
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February 21st, 2012 2:23 pm
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Other than that rally last Thursday that caught a lot of technicians flat footed (i.e. post the Apple reversal) the breadth in this market has been relatively poor the past 5 sessions or so. The Russell 2000 has been lagging the major indexes dominated by large caps, and my watch lists have contained far more red than green. Some people have been calling it the NBA market ("Nothing but Apple") but it's been a bit broader than that – i.e. Microsoft has acted well, and some groups are still working.
A bearish take on this is of course what I cited above – breadth is narrowing which usually happens near tops. Fewer and ...
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February 21st, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Click here for the full report.
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free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. -
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February 21st, 2012 1:39 pm
Today’s tickers: WYNN, CTRP, DTV & WMT
...
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February 21st, 2012 8:58 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
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February 20th, 2012 10:36 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Monday comes and goes with no agreement on Greece until late night settlement on Greece.
European finance ministers met in Brussels Monday and deep into the night and finally, in the wee hours, apparently have struck an agreement for the next round of bailout money for Greece.
In overnight trading, the European indexes were up with the DAX gaining 1.46%, the STOXX 50 adding 1.2% and the FTSE climbing 0.7%
In Asia, major indexes were down slightly as the world waited for an answer on Greece.
The U.S. Dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP) declined after announcement of the agreement while the Euro Dollar (NYSEARCA:FXE) jumped.
The issue remains the same as it always ha...
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February 19th, 2012 3:12 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the most recent Stock World Weekly, Balancing Act. Click on this link to sign in or sign up to read.
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January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position.
AA Money
No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position.
Last week P&L - 310.00
We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium!
FAS Money
Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though!
Last week P&L - $4277.00
IWM Money
A decent week in this virtual portfo...
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January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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Under the stewardship of famous R.I.N.O (Republican in name only) George W., I would constantly suggest that he and his entire administration just shut up, zip it, shut your pie hole. I called it the "pundit podium effect", meaning every time they pontificated rhetoric from the podium, the market would collapse.
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