Archive for
February, 2009
by Phil - February 25th, 2009 6:48 am
Well I’m uplifted!
We had a fantastic day in the markets yesterday as we went bottom fishing in earnest early in the morning, picking up entries on JPM, X, IP, VNO, HMY, M and IYR early in the day, ahead of my 12:48 observation to members: "BAC breaking up along with their preferred stock – that’s a good sign. SKF back at $192 test area, XLF at $7.45 so just a little push and maybe we can get somewhere!" Indeed watching our levels paid off and we went flying up after that. As I often say, you NEED to make these buy decisions at the bottom, it’s too late once the train starts moving. We did grab a momentum play on BAC as they crossed $4.40 but, other than adjusting our DIA cover play, we had no need to make adjustments during the run-up because it’s what we were playing for.
We went into the close fairly neutral (a very slight bearish bias on our DIA puts), having accomplished our mission and not being sure what kind of speech Obama would be giving. It turned out to be a great one and the Republican response by Gov. Bobby Jindal was so mind-blowingly awful that Rachel Maddow was stunned to the point where she was unable to speak and I will leave my own commentary at that! On this same clip, Cris Matthews had the comment of the week, saying that the Republicans were so mired in responsibility for this crisis that they had to outsource the response (Jindal is Indian). I found that very funny…
As we expected, there is no "quick fix" in Obama’s speech and we’ll see how well the markets hold yesterday’s gains. We would have been more bullish had we not had so much trouble with our two critical levels I said we should watch in yesterday’s morning post: Russell 411 and NYSE 4,790. As I said in the morning, these were just the levels we needed to break in order to consider the day’s action anything more than a weak bounce off the horrendous drop of the past two weeks. That’s why we do not jump on the bandwagon once the rally gets going – we do our bottom fishing at the bottom and we sell or cover into the rallies. If it’s a real rally, we have a long, long way to go and we…
Tags: BAC, DBC, DIA, FSLR, HMY, IP, IYR, M, SKF, USO, VNO, X, XLE, XLF, XOM
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by ilene - February 25th, 2009 5:21 am
Mish argues that Bernanke’s new hope-based plan will allow the Fed "to slowly bleed taxpayers to death by 100 tiny cuts."
Courtesy of Mish
The ever changing model of nationalization took another leap towards a resolution of sorts today. Bernanke’s new plan amounts to a game of hide and seek, hoping the mess resolves itself over time. Please consider U.S. Will Take Bank ‘Ownership’ Stakes Only as Losses Climb.
The Treasury will buy convertible preferred stock as needed in the 19 largest U.S. banks after stress tests to determine how much capital is needed to address losses in a “worse” case scenario, Bernanke told lawmakers at a Senate Banking Committee hearing today. The shares will be converted to common only as the extraordinary losses happen, he said.
“It doesn’t have an ownership implication until such time as those losses which are forecast in the bad scenario actually occur,” the Fed chief said. Bernanke also said that the so- called stress tests that regulators will run on the 19 banks will look at potential losses over a two-year horizon if the economy worsens.
Bernanke’s remarks come after some investors expressed concern that the Treasury’s capital-injection plan would hurt banks’ shareholders and lead to government ownership stakes. The chairman added that it will be up to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and the Obama administration to determine whether more bailout funds will be needed from Congress.
“How much more we’ll have to do depends on the state of the banks, it depends on how the economy evolves and it depends on the margin of safety we think we want to have,” Bernanke said today. He separately warned that “if we don’t stabilize the financial system, we’re going to flounder for some time.”
My Translation: "The banking system is going to flounder like a fish out of water for quite some time."
The stress tests “will look at the balance sheets and the capital needs of each of our 19 largest $100-billion-dollar-plus banks over the next two-year horizon,” Bernanke said in response to a question from Senator Robert Corker, a Tennessee Republican.
The assessment will use “both a consensus forecast — where we think the economy is likely to be based on private sector forecasts — and an alternative which is worse,” Bernanke said.
The purpose of the reviews isn’t
…
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by David Fry - February 24th, 2009 7:53 pm
Dave Fry at ETF Digest, February 24, 2009
So, you’re tellin’ me there’s a chance? Bulls jumped on Bernanke’s testimony because they had to. My goodness, yesterday’s selloff put markets in a position to add a new leg lower not to mention how oversold equity indexes had become. He only stated that “maybe” the recession would be over this year. But, that’s all bulls needed.
Stocks undid yesterday’s losses in percentage terms if not in points. But, you’ll remember the various posts put up here yesterday noting the precarious levels where indexes were and especially how oversold markets had become. The bottom line on this Turnaround Tuesday, everything in fact reversed course.
Volume was higher than yesterday’s particularly on the NYSE where financials popped and breadth was the opposite of yesterday.
Meanwhile, our man in Geneva gives us his calculations of market internals. He’s been missed as we’ve been out of sync recently.
There’s another important technical indicator at work which I seldom post for the public. DeMark Indicators are pointing to a “9” reading for month of February. This often means “trend exhaustion”, which in this case, may portend some sideways movement or even a reversal. You’ll spot a decent “9” before from July. This has kept us on the sidelines in combination with other indicators like the RSI.
…
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by ilene - February 24th, 2009 7:37 pm
Time for a real change? Jesse’s Café Américain offers some ideas of what can be done to reform our banking system.
Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves." William Pitt (1759-1806)
Quite the dire, almost inflammatory piece from Time Magazine. It certainly paints Bank of America, Citigroup, General Motors, and AIG in a bad, almost villainous light.
It is time to for a real change. It is time to stop allowing the country to be held hostage by a relatively small number of financiers who have gamed the system and corrupted the regulatory and legislative process. It is time to stop allowing those deeply involved with the problem to manage the investigation and the solutions.
Put the money center banks into a managed restructuring, and stop calling it nationalization, which wrongfully suggests the British socialism of the post World War II era. We did not have to use that sort of language or raise these emotional issues when the Savings and Loan scandal was cleared.
Let’s get this open sore cleaned, bound and stitched.
But one thing we might wish to keep in mind is that it may not be AIG, BAC, and C that are pulling the strings, that are at the center of this. They look more like patsies than prime motivators.
Transparency would be interesting in this case with regards to the CDS market and the derivatives markets.
Who has the most to gain and lose if Citi, Bank of America, and AIG are put into managed restructuring? Who has the most and biggest bets on their failure?
Let’s have transparency of positions now. And we cannot afford to take anyone’s word on this.
The real sticking point is not the shareholders or managers of these companies, although they may be making the most noise at this point.
We will be surprised, if transparency is actually provided, and new and independent regulators armed with the full array of investigative tools, dig into this mess to see where the strings lead, if we do not find many of them in the hands of the other major Wall Street banks, media giants, and corporate conglomerates, among others.
We will keep an
…
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by Option Review - February 24th, 2009 5:19 pm
Today’s tickers: HIG, ORCL, LDK, AXP, MS, JNPR, RIO & BWA
HIG – The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. – The roof is on fire at HIG after shares sky-rocketed up by over 23.5% to $8.25. But, one investor appears to have jumped the gun today by initiating the sale of over 17,000 calls at the January 2011 7.5 strike price for a premium of 3.90 at which point the tinder was aflame, but the roaring blaze was yet to come. We believe the sale was part of a covered call in which the underlying shares were purchased simultaneously. The investor appears to have been selling volatility which was 130.3% at the 7.5 strike when shares were at $6.65. It is likely that he was happy with the 3.90 in premium coupled with the hope inherent in this trade of a 13% rally in shares to $7.50. The investor was likely thinking that if shares rose to meet the strike price, the underlying stock would likely get called away from him at expiration. However, in hindsight it seems the timing of his trade was poor as premiums have since soared to 5.20 and shares have exited the building (so to speak).
ORCL – Oracle Corporation – Shares of the software and services company have increased by roughly 3% to stand at $16.35. ORCL caught our attention due to a number of noteworthy options trades that played out today. A sold strangle was initiated in April by selling 7,500 puts at the 14 strike price for a premium of 50 cents, and by selling 7,500 calls at the April 18 strike for a premium of 53 cents each. The gross premium pocketed by this investor amounts to 1.03 on the trade. Thus, it appears that this trader does not see much by way of recovery for Oracle in the next couple of months, rather seeks experience maximum retention of the 1.03 premium if shares remain within the borders set by the April strikes selected. If shares were to swing outside the strikes, this investor would experience losses beginning at $12.97 on the downside and at $19.03 on the upside. Looking past April showers, a number of bulls were observed scooping up calls in June. Purchases were made at a number of strikes and settled as far up as the June 22 strike price, where 6,000 calls were bought for 15 cents…
Tags: AXP, BWA, HIG, JNPR, LDK, MS, ORCL, RIO
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by ilene - February 24th, 2009 1:05 pm
John Carney provides a link to Bill Gross’s monthly letter in which Bill explains why nationalization is not a viable option for Citi and BofA.
Bill Gross, the bond king who runs the giant Pacific Investment Management Co, has just released his monthly letter. It’s provided in question and answer format. He says that our banks are too complex and too central to our economy to be successfully nationalized by the government.
I think Roubini, Dodd and Greenspan haven’t thought this one through. The U.S. isn’t Sweden, and not just because our blondes aren’t au naturel. Their successful approach revolved around a handful of banks but we have 7,500, as well as many S&Ls and credit unions, which would have to be flushed into government hands. Regulators are overwhelmed as it is, and if you thought Lehman Brothers was a mistake, just standby and see what nationalizing Citi or BofA would do. Our banks remain at the heart of domestic/global financial transactions and daily clearing, while those Scandinavian banks were not. PIMCO would not dispute the need to further capitalize systemically important banks via convertible bonds held by the government, which unfortunately dilute shareholders’ interests. To go further, however, and “haircut” senior debt or even existing preferred stock similar to that issued via the TARP would create an instability policymakers should not want to risk. In turn, forcing creditors to take haircuts would undermine other financial sectors such as insurance companies and credit unions. The goal of future policy should be to recapitalize lending institutions while maintaining the basic infrastructure of credit markets. Outright nationalization and haircutting of creditors will do just the opposite.
His investing advice is: “shake hands with Uncle Sam” – buying agency mortgages, and other developing areas of government policy support in the credit markets.
Full Q&A here>>
See Also:
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by ilene - February 24th, 2009 12:12 pm
Eric J. Fox warns about the media’s ability to manipulate investors by Catastrophizing and Magnifying bad news. So, be skeptical of everything you read and hear, including my posts. – Ilene 
Courtesy of Eric J. Fox, at The Market Prognosticator
I was listening to CNBC, and they just reported that the sky is falling. Oh my God!! Look out below.
The Financial Media is deepening and prolonging the recession by engaging in a series of what a professional would call cognitive distortions. The first of these is called Catastrophizing. This is defined as believing that a situation is much worse than it really is. 
Here’s an example of Catastrophizing. A large bank reports a huge loss due to a unrealized loss in its securities portfolio, and deteriorating loan asset quality leading to higher charge offs and loan loss reserves. Then a talking head, or one of the anchors on CNBC says something like this:
"The entire Banking System is insolvent."
Well actually, no it’s not. There are thousands of Banks in this country and just because Citigroup thought they could "ride the worm," if I may be allowed to quote from Dune, doesn’t mean that every other banker did.
This Catastrophizing is closely related to Magnification, or the tendency to put a stronger emphasis on negative events and ignoring the the positive events.
So what are the causes of these cognitive distortions? There are many possibilities:
1) The media is so immersed in the flow of information and the negative effect of the markets that all they can see are the problems. This "wall of bad news" leads to the distortions listed above. The media was guilty of this in reverse when the markets were heading up. Can anyone remember an anchor actually challenging the Energy Bulls with tough questions two years ago, or were you as annoyed as I was that they were treated as God like investors incapable of error?
2) They are easily manipulated by large institutional investors who have their own agendas to advocate. Have you considered that the commentators who are pushing Nationalization are short the Banks, and their souls are not as pure as they seem?
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by ilene - February 24th, 2009 10:32 am
Corey Rosenbloom comments on the market mayhem.
Courtesy of Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to Trade.com
You’ve read the headlines – turn away if you like – but the Dow Jones closed today at a level not seen since 1997, as price broke and closed beneath the 2002 index value low of 7,197. Let’s see the carnage on the charts.
Dow Jones Monthly Chart:
Today’s closing low of 7,114 – and the intraday low of 7,105 – breached the 2002 bear market low and sent the index down to a 12-year low. The same occurred on the S&P 500, though technically the S&P 500 missed making a fresh closing low by a mere 2 points. It also closed beneath the 2002 bear market low, but technically the 741 intraday level set in November 2008 still holds… by a fraction (the S&P closed today at 743, with an intraday low of 742).
Let’s not get caught up in technicalities, though. It means that investors have been devastated in the bear market plunge that began in October 2007. Investors who bought stocks or mutual funds beginning in 1998 are officially underwater in their long-term investments (though dividends have helped).
Should February 2009 end on a negative note (close), then that would mark the 6th month in a row the Dow Jones Index declined on a closing basis. We’re certainly due some sort of rally, but those buying into that belief have been hurt so far.
The old saying goes “In a bear market, you’re either short or out.”
Investor anxiety and panic may be setting in, and people have caught on now that odds favor lower prices. However, bear markets end when everyone is convinced that prices will keep going down forever, and they end when everyone is bearish and has sold out of most/all positions (leaving no one left to sell).
There’s not much support left if we can’t hold these levels. There is no more recent chart support (the last being the November lows which still are in tact for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000), but should all indexes break these levels, then we’ll have to go to Fibonacci Price Extensions off higher-level swings for forms of possible support.
The other saying…
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by ilene - February 24th, 2009 9:24 am
Arguments against nationalization, from one who’s been through the process before.
Courtesy of StockJockey at 1440 Wall Street
While I personally favor wiping out the common shareholders and cleaning up a few problem institutions and then flipping them quickly in a "pre-privatization", not everyone is on board with that. Indeed some influential people who have been there, done that, are weighing in on the topic du jour.
Chew on this:
People who should know better have been speculating publicly that the government might need to nationalize our largest banks. This irresponsible chatter is causing tremendous turmoil in financial markets. The Obama administration needs to make clear immediately that nationalization — government seizing control of ownership and operations of a company — is not a viable option.
Unlike the talking heads, I have actually nationalized a large bank. When I headed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) during the banking crisis of the 1980s, the FDIC recapitalized and took control of Continental Illinois Bank, which was then the country’s seventh largest bank.
The FDIC purchased Continental’s problem loans at a big discount and hired the bank to manage and collect the loans under an incentive arrangement. We received 80% ownership of the company, which increased to 100% based on the losses suffered by the FDIC on the bad loans.
The takeover occurred in 1984, the FDIC completed the sale of its ownership stake seven years later, and Continental was purchased by Bank of America in 1994. The old shareholders ultimately received nothing, all creditors and preferred shareholders came out whole, and the FDIC suffered what we considered a reasonable loss: $1.6 billion. WSJ
Isaac’s experience should not be discounted -the story of Penn Square Bank in Oklahoma, which ultimately brought down Continental Illinois and nicked Chase pretty hard, is an interesting one. And an episode I hoped we would not have to repeat – it was big news at the time.
Perhaps a bit boring by today’s standards, but riveting enough reading when for those of you who are killing time waiting for the job market to turn around.
Read Bill’s Op-Ed in the Journal, and the book detailing it all if you can. It will certainly seem quaint compared to what…
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by ilene - February 24th, 2009 8:42 am
Tim Duy argues that encouraging lending will not solve our financial woes. American Express clearly agrees.
Courtesy of Tim Duy at Economist’s View
Billions of dollars later, and consumer credit continues to contract…and now at least one firm is paying paying cardholders to drop their accounts. From Bloomberg:
American Express Co., the largest U.S. credit-card company by purchases, is paying some cardholders $300 each to close accounts so the lender can reduce the risk of defaults as the recession deepens.
People who got the offer to “simplify” their finances must pay off their entire credit-card balance by April 30, according to New York-based American Express. Enrolling in the program cancels a customer’s account and may lead to forfeiture of reward points or rebates, the company said on its Web site.
“What AmEx is trying to do is move to the front of the line in terms of getting paid back” by customers who owe debts to multiple lenders, said Michael Taiano, an analyst at Sandler O’Neill & Partners with a “hold” rating on the company. “They clearly grew loans faster than their competitors in the years leading up to this financial crisis.”
American Express was a recipient of TARP funding, albeit a "nominal" $3.39 billion. What makes this interesting is that not only is American Express not expanding lending – the selling point of the original TARP proposal – they are using the funds (money is fungible) to explicitly contract lending. Such a vivid illustration of the industry’s challenges. And those challenges are only building. As the US government is goading investors with a line in the sand, consumer defaults are swelling:
Consumers are falling behind on credit-card payments as U.S. unemployment reached 7.6 percent last month, the highest rate since 1992.
This is just consumer debt; commerical debt pressures, including real estate, are building as well. With the situation rapidly deteriorating, the anticipated stress tests look like a smoke screen to buy time in yet another emphemeral effort to restore the elusive confidence that policymakers hope will magically restore the system. 
Whatever news comes out of Washington…
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January 27th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
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January 27th, 2012 12:55 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
In an effort to reach the angry mob, CNBC's Rick Santelli goes all Sesame Street on the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).
...
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January 27th, 2012 12:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).
Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...
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January 27th, 2012 11:15 am
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high. Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...
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January 27th, 2012 10:05 am
Courtesy of Benzinga.
Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.
Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.
Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.
Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.
...
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January 27th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.
CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.
STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...
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January 26th, 2012 6:16 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party. The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.
The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...
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January 26th, 2012 1:38 pm
Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI
...
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January 23rd, 2012 8:56 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
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January 22nd, 2012 10:09 pm
Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general!
AA Money
Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance.
Previous week P&L - $400.00
We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium!
FAS Money
We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope.
Previous week P&L - $4372.00...
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January 22nd, 2012 2:52 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating. Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)
Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.
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January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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