Archive for
March, 2009
by ilene - March 28th, 2009 3:05 pm
Note: the wordpress backup site is back, with apologies, so now there are two more Favorites sites. The original one has the blogroll, which can’t be exported/imported.
Below, Tim Iacono reports on the cat and mouse game in the auto sales industry… fraud and arson, meet the "Disabler." – Ilene
Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made
Two reports in the Wall Street Journal tell the tale of how automobile ownership is hitting the skids in the U.S. in an eerie parallel to home ownership – people are walking away from what they promised to pay for and lenders are taking steps to assure they are repaid.
In Signs of Stress, Fraud on Roadside, Las Vegans are abandoning their cars in record numbers to get out from under the monthly payment – if you don’t want to take it out to the desert and torch it yourself, the going rate is only $500 for someone else to do it.
Police detective Mark Menzie drove 55 miles into the desert Sunday to inspect the charred remains of a formerly silver Ford Expedition.
Later, he sat in a kitchen on the city’s south side where a 19-year-old man confessed to torching his girlfriend’s Chrysler PT Cruiser.
At noon Monday, Mr. Menzie was picking through the smashed windshield of a 2008 Land Rover in a desert canyon. His police radio crackled as he worked; another car was spotted burning southwest of the city.
Years of no-money-down car loans followed by sinking home values and rising unemployment has made many people desperate over car payments they can no longer afford. For some, the answer is to ditch the car, report it stolen and collect the insurance money to pay it off without hurting their credit.
Well, at least their intentions are good – to preserve their credit in order to borrow another day. The fact that they are committing a crime is apparently less important.
On the bright side, this is one more growth area for our new economy – more jobs in insurance fraud investigation and vehicle storage.
Tow yards in Las Vegas are filled with the blackened hulls of Mercedes sedans and Cadillac Escalades. The wrecks were
…
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by Phil - March 28th, 2009 10:50 am
Where do we go from here?
Dylan Ratigan is going somewhere, off CNBC because THEY didn’t like the direction he’s been taking lately – going after the mechanism of Wall Street that led to this crisis and may well lead to the next one. Dylan wants to do more investigative reporting and thinks CNBC should take on a watchdog role – as he says in this clip re. Wall Street bonuses "it’s not capitalism, it’s stealing." CNBC, on the other hand, wants Dylan to look pretty and lob softball questions at CEOs while parent GE et al feed at the government trough while Dylan wants to tell people "capitalism is broken" and needs to be fixed and regulated. I don’t know where he’s going to find a job pushing that agenda but he can certainly find a forum here!
The official G20 kicks off in earnest on Wednesday (the underlings have been going at it for 2 weeks already) and our President is going to make a real World Tour out of it: Stopping by to see th Queen for tea ahead of the G20, at the meeting all day Thursday, having a Town Hall meeting in Strasboug on Thursday ahead of Friday’s Nato Summit. Saturday it’s off to Prague for a speech at the EU-US summit, Sunday he negotiates with Turkey on troops and trade and Monday he’ll be in Istanbul before heading home. So what will you be accomplishing next week? "President Obama has been talking for many months, if not a year or more, about the need to restore U.S. leadership around the globe," said Reginald Dale, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Europe program. "This trip is the first chance, actually, to start doing something about that."
While Obama’s away, the bears may play next week and we have tons of data coming: Tuesday we have Consumer Confidence, which has been below 30 since the Fall, The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, down about 18% since last year and the Chicago PMI, which should give us a small upside surprise from 36 expected. Wednesday we have the dreaded ADP report, which showed just under 700,000 Jobs lost in February and better be under 650K for March. We also have Construction Spending and the ISM and Pending Home Sales – all at 10am, so a crazy day ahead there (Crude Inventories…
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by ilene - March 27th, 2009 3:17 pm
Andrew Cuomo is asking good questions, and as Karl Denninger points out here, at least someone is. – Ilene 
(Note: wordpress disabled the previous backup site for unknown reasons, so please use the above "Ilene" and subsequent "Ilene’s" for a new backup site. I may need to redo the blogroll if wordpress doesn’t restore the previous site.)
at The Market Ticker
My God, there is a cop:
March 26 (Bloomberg) — New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo subpoened American International Group Inc.’s credit- default swap data to see whether its customers including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Societe Generale SA and Deutsche Bank AG were improperly compensated with taxpayer dollars.
“Our investigation into corporate bonuses has led us to an investigation of the credit-default swap contracts at AIG,” Cuomo said in a statement. “CDS contracts were at the heart of AIG’s meltdown. The question is whether the contracts are being wound down properly and efficiently or whether they have become a vehicle for funneling billions in taxpayer dollars to capitalize banks all over the world.”
It’s about damn time.
I have some questions, specifically:
-
Why isn’t the FBI performing this investigation.
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Why isn’t US Attorney General spearheading this investigation?
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Why isn’t our President, Barack Obama, demanding this investigation?
From the information available in public reports I believe that AIG’s "rescue" is nothing more or less than a thinly-disguised looting operation for certain preferred banks both here and abroad, intended to improperly obtain the full value of credit default swaps when the underlying instrument has not (yet) defaulted. Since AIG does not have the money (nor will they if and when the instruments do default) the company is being used as a conduit to funnel taxpayer money to these creditors who would otherwise be forced to seek their redress for bets that went bad through the bankruptcy court, and in the process would almost certainly take a very singificant loss.
What’s even worse is that AIG’s "installed" CEO, Liddy, was a director at Goldman Sachs before he took the helm of AIG, and Hank Paulson picked him for both roles!
Since Mr. Liddy is allegedly working for a salary of $1, let’s ask the obvious question that immediately…
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by ilene - March 27th, 2009 12:44 pm
Stock Jockey refers to 2008′s oil price manipulation swindle as the "other crime of the century," but it was also business as usual on Wall Street. The information in this article and those linked within might make you sick. – Ilene
Courtesy of StockJockey at 1440 Wall Street
There have been some remarkable swindles over the past year – Madoff, AIG etc etc. But the one that ravaged everyone’s pocketbook directly hit last summer.
The spike in oil to nearly $150 last July was breathtaking. And it was a killer blow to consumers around the world – the straw that broke the camel’s back as we moved deeper into a recession, and teetered on the brink disaster. At the time I was going apeshit over the price of crude, smelling a rat while peak oil types wore smug looks on their faces and shadowy industry analysts called for even higher crude prices:
May 21st
An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another….Mr. Murti, 39, argues that the world’s seemingly unquenchable thirst for oil means prices will keep rising from here and stay above $100 into 2011. NYT
Yes, last summer Arjun Murti of Goldman Sachs was the Belle of the Ball, a regular Nostradamus living in New Jersey with two hybrid automobiles and an aversion to the media. As Barron’s said in early June of 2008, just as we headed into perhaps the biggest short squeeze in modern Wall Street history:
The 39-year-old analyst doesn’t give many interviews and keeps a low profile, preferring not to be photographed. But his strong views on energy have resonated across the financial markets.
Curious timing (he gave two high profile media interviews in three weeks) given what was going on at the time with SemGroup Holdings:
When oil prices spiked last summer to $147 a barrel, the biggest corporate casualty was oil pipeline giant Semgroup Holdings, a $14 billion (sales) private firm in Tulsa, Okla. It had racked up $2.4 billion in trading losses betting that oil prices would go down, including $290 million in accounts personally managed by then chief executive Thomas Kivisto. Its short positions amounted to the equivalent of 20%…
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by ilene - March 27th, 2009 11:08 am
Recall a post by Stock Jockey earlier this month called "Kass Digs In While Bears Continue to Feast"? It started off "Doug Kass is not afraid of the spotlight, and that is what he has at the moment thanks to his high profile calls that it is time to get more constructive on this market… but can the market be really be bought here?" Well now after the March run up, Doug is saying it’s time to exit. Read on. 
- Ilene
Courtesy of Henry Blodget at ClusterStock
Doug Kass is sticking with his call about the generational market low a few weeks ago. But now that everyone else is finally realizing that this may just be the start of a huge new bull market, he’s also running for the hills.
(We love Doug’s instincts. We thank goodness we don’t have to worry about getting all these little short-term bulls and bears right, though. And we’d still put at least 50% odds on the fact that we have not yet seen that generational low.)
Too Many Booyahs Now?
I am going to stay true to what brought me here… and suggest that it is now an appropriate time to raise some cash.
Within the context of the greatest political circus ever televised, stocks have not improved because of the government; they are improving despite the government. And in the face of an unprecedented five up 90% days in March, the current rally is clearly different this time and more durable than others that preceded it.
Even though market internals have been steadily improving, the Nouriel Roubini Stock Market Bottom is in and a generational low has likely been reached (and will not be breached), so the move now seems stretched as the fear of being out has been replaced the early March fear of being in.
The gloom and doom that permeated the investment scene in early March is now disappearing. My sense is that, not unexpectedly, investor optimism is now on the rise and that sentiment indicators will exhibit that heightened optimism as they are released in the days ahead. This coupled with overbought technical indicators lead me to a more cautious view now.
More
…
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by Phil - March 27th, 2009 7:54 am
What an exciting week this has been.
A nice 10% up move in the markets and yesterday the Nasdaq closed green for the year but we’ll have to see if it lasts today. We went short into the close, 60% bearish as two days in a row of pumped-up closes was just too much to…. bare. After a near 25% run off the bottom, a 5% correction would be good and healthy and we’ll be looking to hold the same levels we set on the way up on this pullback – those would be: Dow 7,636, S&P 805, Nas 1,525, NYSE 5,075 and Russell 420, roughly 15% off the bottoms with 5% rule adjustments.
Our dollar adjusted breakout levels remain Dow 8,000, S&P 847, Nas 1,585, NYSE 5,321 and Russell 456 but be aware that the dollar swings wildly almost every day and I am far too lazy to keep adjusting those levels so roughly there is what we’re looking for. I already sent out an alert to members this morning pointing out that the dollar was being forced up at the EU open and it seems to be more manipulation aimed at supporting US equity charts for another day as the declining dollar boosts the relative value of the stocks – I’m not sure it will last as it’s very expensive to keep the dollar down.
They have literally thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the markets this week to get a 10% gain into the end of quarter (IF they can hold it together that long) but, what next? For the first time in a very long time I’ve called for raising cash as we’re heading into some very volatile earnings and I’m really not expecting us to break our upper levels, now just 2% away, without considerable effort. Balance is usually fine but sometimes the flexibility of cash is a big help!
I’m not bearish per se - I still think the market should settle down back around our old 8,650 range after earnings but it will probably be a wild ride getting there. While the economy is better than you may think (see very cool chart) - charts do still rule. If we can’t break our top levels by next Wednesday, we’re much more likely to see AT LEAST a 50% retrace of our gains off the bottom. That’s why I like a little more cash here, huge drops can blow our your hedges so better to have cash…
Tags: AMZN, CHK, DIA, EOG, GOOG, QID, QQQQ, SPY
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by David Fry - March 26th, 2009 9:07 pm
Dave Fry at ETF Digest, March 26, 2009
Steamrolled, that’s one way to describe recent action. The bullish beat goes on as does the rally. We’re much overbought but that doesn’t seem to be slowing bulls down and you just have to stay out of the way.
One thing’s for sure, the DeMark Sequential 9 count on many monthly charts (SPY shown below) foretold that a change in direction was entirely possible. Given the oversold level of that indicator plus the extreme low RSI (Relative Strength Index) an epic bounce was in the cards.
Volume today was high especially on the NASDAQ while breadth remains quite positive.
Let’s look a further inside tech-land.
…
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by ilene - March 26th, 2009 9:00 pm
Here’s an introduction to and excerpt from The Quiet Coup, courtesy of Simon Johnson and James Kwak, at The Baseline Scenario. – Ilene
From 1945 until around 1980, the financial sector was one industry among many in the United States. Then something happened.
People in finance started making more money, jobs in finance became more desirable, financial institutions became more influential, and the linkages between the financial sector and the political establishment became stronger. At the same time that our financial sector became more leveraged and more risky, it also became more powerful. The result was a confluence of interests between Wall Street and Washington – one more normally found behind the scenes of emerging market crises, the kind the IMF is called on to resolve.
Simon and I tell this story – and the story of what happened next – in “The Quiet Coup,” an article in the May issue of The Atlantic. (Many thanks to The Atlantic for putting the online copy up as early as they did.) The working title of the article was, “What the IMF Would Tell the United States, If It Could.” Enjoy. – By James Kwak. 
Excerpt from The Quiet Coup:
In my view, the U.S. faces two plausible scenarios. The first involves complicated bank-by-bank deals and a continual drumbeat of (repeated) bailouts, like the ones we saw in February with Citigroup and AIG. The administration will try to muddle through, and confusion will reign.
Boris Fyodorov, the late finance minister of Russia, struggled for much of the past 20 years against oligarchs, corruption, and abuse of authority in all its forms. He liked to say that confusion and chaos were very much in the interests of the powerful—letting them take things, legally and illegally, with impunity. When inflation is high, who can say what a piece of property is really worth? When the credit system is supported by byzantine government arrangements and backroom deals, how do you know that you aren’t being fleeced?
Our future could be one in which continued tumult feeds the looting of the financial system, and we talk more and more about exactly how our oligarchs became bandits and how the economy just can’t…
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by Option Review - March 26th, 2009 7:02 pm
Today’s tickers: XRT, EXPD, RIMM, EWJ, GM, STP, MU, WFC, XLF, JPM & ASH
XRT Retail ETF SPDR – Shares of the retail ETF were on the rise today, gaining more than 3.5% to arrive at $23.58. Some traders established bearish bets using options, while one bullish trade stood out like a sore thumb in the June contract. At the June 22 strike price one investor purchased 17,200 in-the-money calls for a sizeable premium of 3.12 apiece. The rest of the notable trades were decidedly looking for downside movement in shares. At the near-term April contract a credit spread was initiated by purchasing 3,000 calls at the 24 strike price for 85 cents and selling 3,000 calls at the 22 strike for 2.00 apiece. The net credit enjoyed on the trade amounts to 1.15 and will be retained in full if shares fall below $22.00 by expiration. Another pessimistic investor crafted a put spread in the June contract by purchasing 5,000 puts at the 24 strike price for 2.40 each and selling 5,000 puts at the 20 strike for 90 cents. The net cost of the trade amounts to 1.50 and yields a maximum potential profit of 2.50 if shares can fall to $20.00 by expiration. Profits will begin to amass on the downside if shares fall below the breakeven on the trade at $22.50. Finally, some 5,000 puts were traded at the May 22 strike where there had previously been no open interest. The bulk of the smoke-signals from traders today suggest that the rally XRT experienced today will be short-lived.
EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. – The global logistics services company has experienced a share price rally of 6% to $29.64. EXPD appeared on our ‘high option volume put/call ratio’ market scanner with a put-to-call ratio of 190. One investor looks to be taking profit today from the short sale of 20,000 puts at the May 20 strike price, which may have originally been sold for a premium of between 0.88 cents and 1.18 per contract. The purchase of those 20,000 puts for 30 cents closes out the short position and leaves the investor with a profit of between 0.58 cents and 0.88 cents. Further along in the August contract it looks like this same investor is reestablishing a short put position. With no existing open interest at the May 22.5 strike price, 15,000 puts were…
Tags: ASH, EWJ, EXPD, GM, JPM, MU, RIMM, STP, WFC, XLF, XRT
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by ilene - March 26th, 2009 3:31 pm
Condor Options discusses LEAPs, calls, and options in buying options.
- Ilene
Courtesy of Condor Options
Long-term Equity Anticipation Securities (LEAPS) are a class of options with expiration dates longer than a year. Their purpose is to allow investors who would otherwise hold shares of an underlying equity to buy an option instead, and thereby participate in expected price movement without tying up as much capital. However, we caution investors against using LEAPS as stock substitutes without first taking volatility considerations into account.
Let’s say you want to buy 1000 shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO). At $15.91, you’ll tie up $15,910 to hold those shares. If you were comfortable trading LEAPS, you could instead buy 10 January 2010 CSCO 12.50 calls for $4.85, tying up just $4,850 to own those options. You’ll participate in most of the upside should the stock rally over the next year: if CSCO is at $23 by January 2010 expiration, you will have gained $7,020 on the stock position, or about $6,000 on your LEAPS (at .77 delta, the calls will mimic about three fourths the movement of the stock). And as with any long call, your losses are limited to the premium paid – in this case, owning the LEAPS would reduce your exposure by $11,060 should the stock collapse. Of course, if you wanted the option position to track stock movement more closely, you could choose a contract further in the money with higher delta, though the usefulness of the LEAPS as a capital-freeing stock replacement would decrease accordingly.
But delta isn’t the only greek worth attending to when it comes to LEAPS. Those January 2010 calls also carry a vega of .04, which means the option will lose four cents in value for every 1% decline in implied volatility. The current implied volatility in this series is about 53%, which, like most stocks these days, is well below the recent highs but is still historically quite rich. That means anyone buying LEAP calls today may be setting themselves up to lose either way on the volatility front: if the stock rallies, the consequent decline in implied volatility will punish call holders, and at these levels a steady decline will have already been priced into the options, such that a gradual selloff will also be…
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January 27th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
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January 27th, 2012 12:55 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
In an effort to reach the angry mob, CNBC's Rick Santelli goes all Sesame Street on the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).
...
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January 27th, 2012 12:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).
Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...
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January 27th, 2012 11:15 am
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high. Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...
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January 27th, 2012 10:05 am
Courtesy of Benzinga.
Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.
Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.
Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.
Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.
...
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January 27th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.
CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.
STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...
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January 26th, 2012 6:16 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party. The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.
The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...
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January 26th, 2012 1:38 pm
Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI
...
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January 23rd, 2012 8:56 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
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January 22nd, 2012 10:09 pm
Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general!
AA Money
Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance.
Previous week P&L - $400.00
We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium!
FAS Money
We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope.
Previous week P&L - $4372.00...
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January 22nd, 2012 2:52 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating. Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)
Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.
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January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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