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Archive for March, 2009

Elliott Wave Update – Possible Count for March 26

Here’s Corey’s latest Elliott Wave Count Update. – Ilene

Elliott Wave Update – Possible Count for March 26

Courtesy of Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid To Trade

Here’s an update and comments to the possible Elliott Wave Scenario playing out on the S&P 500 – this is just one possible count – a very bullish interpretation – which hints that we’ve bottomed and are now in a corrective or perhaps even impulse phase.


(You’ll need to click for a larger chart)

Let me first state that price breaking above 805 in the S&P ‘messed up’ the obvious count, which is that the current rally was a fractal Wave 4 of the final Wave (5) … or alternately of final 5 of Wave (3), but we’ll side-step that discussion for the moment.

According to one of only 3 basic Elliott Wave Rules (that’s right – as complicated as Elliott Theory is, it only has three hard rules)…

“Wave 4 Can Not Enter the Price Territory of Wave 1″

That’s why so many traders were watching the 800/805 level so intently on the S&P, and why it had so much trouble breaking above it, and that when it finally did break, we got a surge off that level because so many stop-losses (from the short sellers) were being covered.

Because this happened, it forced Elliotticians to defer to their alternate counts.  The count I have posted above is one of those alternate counts which implies that we achieved a full, five-wave count in the prior downswing from 950 to 665 on the S&P 500 Index.

IF this count is correct, it implies one of two things:

1)  If we accept the count at face value, it would imply we have bottomed out here and that we are perhaps beginning a primary new impulse up – that is extremely hard to believe given the current negative economic environment, and that’s not necessarily an implication I’m willing to make right here.

2)  If we assume that Primary Wave 3 has not yet completed, and that the down-move here just officially completed Wave 3, then we will be launching into a strong ABC (perhaps even Zig-Zag) Primary Wave 4 that could take us as high as 1,200 (but more realistically, 1,000/1,100).  This ABC pattern could last months.

Let’s look at Scenario 2, which implies that we just completed


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WSJ: Have We Seen the Last of the Bear Raids?

Andy Kessler explains the "bear-raid extraordinaire."  Read this article, maybe twice. 

WSJ: Have We Seen the Last of the Bear Raids?

Courtesy of Andy Kessler

Wsj_logo
So is that it? Is the downturn over? After bouncing off of 6500, or more than half its peak value, and with Citigroup briefly breaking $1, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied back more than 1200 points. So, is it safe to go back in the water? Best to figure out what went wrong first — what I like to call a bear-raid extraordinaire.

The Dow clearly got a boost from Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s new and improved plan, announced on Monday, to rid our banks of those nasty toxic assets. The idea is to form a "Public-Private Investment Fund" to buy up $500 billion to $1 trillion worth of bad assets — mostly mortgage backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs).

While it’s true that private interests can conceptually help establish the right market price for these assets, the reality is Mr. Geithner’s public-private scheme won’t work. Why? Because the pricing paradox remains — private parties won’t overpay, yet banks believe these assets are extremely undervalued by the market. As Edward Yingling, president of the American Bankers Association, said recently on CNBC, "You have to go into the securities, examine the securities, examine the cash flow. I’ve seen it done, and the market is so far below what they’re really worth."

The Treasury can’t just keep throwing money at the problem, but needs instead to figure out what’s really been going on — the aforementioned bear-raid extraordinaire that’s crushed Citigroup and Bank of America and General Electric, among others. Only then can Mr. Geithner craft a real plan to fight back.

In a typical bear raid, traders short a target stock — i.e., borrow shares and then sell them, hoping to cover or replace them at a cheaper price. Once short, traders then spread bad news, amplify it, even make it up if they have to, to get a stock to drop so they can cover their short.

Bear raid image This bear raid was different. Wall Street is short-term financed, mostly through overnight and repurchasing agreements, which was fine when banks were just doing IPOs and trading stocks. But as they began to own things


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GDPhursday – Big Chart Review

Same as it ever was.

It’s a very sad day in the market when I can send out an Alert at 9:48 that pretty much lays out the whole day’s action (move up to 2.5%, pullback to 2%, failure there leading to 1.25% finish).  In fact, my comment to members was: "the closer we get to yesterday’s highs, the more nervous I am that we get about a 2% pullback on profit taking so don’t be the last person to take gains off the table!"  We had one mother of stick save into the close but all it did was get us back to my levels so now we’ll see if part tow of my prediction pans out and we fall all the way back to test yesterday’s lows again on the GDP and Jobs data.

We are still overbought and the VIX certainly isn’t complacent at 42.25 but the buyers still are as Da Boyz sell the hell out of the markets from noon until 2 then start buying again for an hour and then have CNBC tell the retail investors that the sell-off was all because Tim Geithner "accidentally" said that a global currency wasn’t a terrible idea.  Good comedy is all about timing and teamwork.  Geithner floated his one-liner during a Foreign Relations Council meeting and the dollar went into free-fall – that was the set-up.  Then, after the damage was done, his long-time comedy partner (they both worked in Clinton’s Treasury) and now Fund manager, Roger Altman, pretended to be a regular member of the audience so they could close the conference with this zinger:

"I’d like to ask one final question, in effect on behalf of the market," said Altman, "Let me ask the question this way. Do you see any change over the foreseeable future in the basic role of the dollar as the world’s key reserve currency?"  Geithner responded: "I think the dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency."  See, all better!  Not since the great comedy team of Rice and Bush have we had a policy duo that could keep the audience turning in circles like this trying to figure out what the hell they are saying. 

If you thought the markets were jacked up at the end of the day, you should see the pump job they did on the futures once the markets closed.  The Dow was driven all the way up
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Is the worst behind us?

James Hamilton is watching the housing market — as long as prices are falling, concerns about the value of mortgage backed securities and financial instruments constructed from them will persist.

Is the worst behind us?

Courtesy of James Hamilton at Econbrowser

A couple of weeks ago we received the encouraging news that retail sales for both January and February were 1.8% above December. On Monday the National Association of Realtors reported that February sales of existing homes were 5.1% above January levels on a seasonally adjusted basis. Today the Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods rose 3.4% in February, with new orders for nondefense capital goods up 7.4%. And also today the Census Bureau reported that new home sales in February were up 4.7% (on a seasonally adjusted basis) relative to January. Is the tide starting to turn?



Note: graph does not include today’s new home sales data. Source: Calculated Risk.
nhs_vs_ehs_mar_09.jpg


The new home sales figure is particularly relevant. Calculated Risk has been emphasizing the discrepancy between the possible turnaround in sales of existing homes and what had up until today been an ongoing slide in new home sales. Much of the strength in existing home sales has come from foreclosure resales. Large numbers of foreclosures coupled with falling sales of new homes do not paint a picture of a healthy housing market. Although the February bump in seasonally adjusted new home sales is encouraging, on a seasonally unadjusted basis, we’d usually expect February sales to be 25% above the seasonal low in December. But the seasonally unadjusted February 2009 number was about the same as was reported for a very weak December and 44% below February 2008.



Seasonally unadjusted new home sales. Source: Calculated Risk.
nhs_mar_09.jpg


Despite the increase in sales of existing homes, the inventory of unsold existing homes unfortunately also increased in February. But the good news is that this inventory remains below the levels seen for most of 2008.



Source: Calculated Risk.

Here is Calculated Risk’s take on the


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry at ETF Digest, March 25, 2009

Reports of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. They tango and tangle with trading desks to rule when it comes to driving markets and making money. Check out these numbers from Institutional Investor Alpha magazine:

“You’re just jealous, Dave!” Oh yeah, no doubt about it! But, these guys in the top 10 (with the top 25 announced tomorrow) control billions in assets while trading the snot out of markets. They and the WS trading desks are Da Boyz Club. Many day-trade futures and stocks driving prices any which way they want. Most don’t give a rip about fundamentals or tiresome punditry since it’s just about making money and winning baby! And, “Holy performance fees Batman!” many of them have done just that.

So, let’s give them a hand as they giggle all the way to the bank or the Cayman Islands while naïve innocents like the rest of us toil in thoughtful, or even meaningless, BS.

I press-on in this altruistic quest (silly boy!) to provide you dear reader with thoughts on the day’s action. And, action there was with investors buoyed early by an increase in durable goods, retail sales, housing starts and inflation data to keep the March Madness Rally moving along. A poor Treasury auction result led to selling until Da Boyz launched their “stick save” into the close as markets fell beneath clear support. They have the fire power to protect their positions and prevent any breakdown no matter the cost.

Volume was steady and breadth positive meaning we’re still overbought.


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Full Commanding Denial

Jim Kunstler eloquently presents his views on how we will gradually be forced to shift from denial to recognizing real change in our lives. – Ilene

Full Commanding Denial

Courtesy of Clusterfuck Nation by Jim Kunstler

       If central casting called for a poised, straight-talking, and capable-seeming president, it would be hard to come up with someone better than the Barack Obama who walked and talked around the White House grounds with Steve Croft on "60-Minutes" Sunday night. He may perfectly represent the majority who elected him, though, because he also appears to be in full commanding denial of the realities overtaking our American experience.

      Those realities include the fact that we can’t possibly return to the easy credit and no money down "consumer" economy no matter how many nominal dollars get shoveled into the fiery furnaces of banks too-big-to-fail. As Treasury Secretary Geithner’s underling, Stephanie Cutter, said last week, "Our singular focus is on increasing lending to support economic recovery. Everything we do to stabilize the financial system is done with that goal in mind." 

      Lending on the scale that became normal over the last decade is for sure the one thing that we will not recover. We turn around in 2009 to find ourselves a much poorer nation than we thought we were a year ago, especially among that broad range of formerly middle-class wage-earners who lived so luxuriously until yesterday. The public can’t process this reality and the president, for all his relaxed charm, is either not ready to articulate it, or can’t process it himself.

     Everything that we’re doing right now is engineered to avoid reality, to sustain the unsustainable, to recover the unrecoverable, when the mandate of reality compels us to face our losses in order to move on to the next chapter of a collective American life. The next chapter would be a society that runs on a much more local and modest scale, centered on essential activities like growing food, requiring harder physical work, and focused attention — in other words, the opposite of a society lost in abstractions, long-range daisy chains of off-loaded responsibility, and incessant pleasure-seeking.

     In retreat from this reality, we’ve set in motion two forces that are pretty certain to


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Investors dispute Monsanto “Hold” assessment

www.interactivebrokers.com

Today’s tickers: MON, HPQ, WFC, MYGN, QCOM, XLI, C, WFR, DRYS, FXI, AMD & RMBS

MON Monsanto Company – The St. Louis-based provider of herbicides, seeds, and related biotechnology trait products used to improve farming productivity, experienced a 1.5% decrease in shares to $82.13. Despite the slight decline, a report from Standard & Poor’s this morning noted that the agriculture sector experienced its strongest year in 2008, and further, that “seed and agriculture technology companies stand to benefit” from the health of the farm economy. Monsanto was highlighted for its solid research and development efforts and its promising estimates for earnings through 2012. However, one analyst did report that shares are “fairly valued” at $84.00, prompting a ‘hold’ recommendation. MON popped onto our market scanners after one investor initiated a bull call spread in the May contract. The purchase of 7,500 calls at the 95 strike price for 2.30 was spread against the sale of 7,500 calls at the 105 strike for 55 cents apiece. The net cost of this strategy amounts to 1.75 and yields a maximum potential profit of 8.25 if shares can rally upwards to $105 by expiration. Shares would need to grow by 28% in the next 2 months in order for this optimist to succeed in capturing the maximum profit of 8.25 by expiration day.

HPQ Hewlett-Packard Co. – In contrast to the call-selling witnessed yesterday in the options world, today investors were keen on purchasing calls in the November contract as shares of HPQ rally 1% to $30.95. The world’s largest personal-computer maker received an “outperform” rating by RBC Capital Markets due to the company’s, “diverse revenue portfolio, recurring book of business, stronger margin profile and solid management team,” according to one report released today. While most of the activity occurred in the November contract, one investor was seen banking profits on the sale of 3,000 calls at the in-the-money April 27.5 strike price for a premium of 4.00. Moving ahead 7 months, investors splurged on 2,000 November 32.5 calls for 4.40 apiece. Meanwhile, 5,500 calls were purchased at the 35 strike price for 3.40 at the same time that 6,500 calls were picked up for 2.50 at the 37.5 strike price. Finally, the most optimistic traders looked to the November 40 strike where some 2,400 calls were coveted for a premium of 1.80 per contract. Investors are clearly hoping for HPQ to…
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It Looks Like Citi And Bank Of America Are Already Gaming The System

Why are BofA and C buying up Alt-A and ARM MBS?

It Looks Like Citi And Bank Of America Are Already Gaming The System (C, BAC)

Courtesy of John Carney at ClusterStock

The huge subsidy to banks hidden inside of Tim Geithner’s public-private partnership program may already be leading banks to load up on securities they plan to sell at inflated prices.

According to the New York Post, Citi and Bank of America have been aggressively buying up Alt-A and ARM mortgage backed securities, sometimes paying more than the going rate of around 30 cents on the dollar.

Mark DeCambre reports:

One Wall Street trader told The Post that what’s been most puzzling about the purchases is how aggressive both banks have been in their buying, sometimes paying higher prices than competing bidders are willing to pay.

Recently, securities rated AAA have changed hands for roughly 30 cents on the dollar, and most of the buyers have been hedge funds acting opportunistically on a bet that prices will rise over time. However, sources said Citi and BofA have trumped those bids.

This raises serious questions about how the banks are using TARP funds. Instead of stimulating the economy by making new loans, B of A and Citi seem to be spending money to buy up old loans. That’s probably a bet  that the Geithner plan will create renewed demand for MBS.

Source:  DOUBLE-DIPPERS CITI, BOFA BUYING BACK LAUNDERED LOANS AT LOWER RATES, NY Post, by MARK DeCAMBRE 

 




Geithner’s Arrogance Knows No Bounds

Wondering if there’s a Plan B?  There isn’t and, in Geithner’s mind, there’s no need for one. - Ilene   

Geithner’s Arrogance Knows No Bounds

Courtesy of Mish

Inquiring minds are listening to Geithner explain to Congress how his plan works. Here is a transcript of a conversation between Rep Gresham Barrett and Treasury Secretary Geithner.

Rep Gresham Barrett: "The last question I have guys, which is the $64 million question or I guess I should say $64 trillion question is: What’s the backup plan? If everything fails what do we do? Where do we go from here?"

Treasury Secretary Geithner: "Congressman this plan will work. This plan because of the authority provided not just by Congress but the treasury and the Fed gives us broad ability to do what you need to do to get through a financial crisis like this. It just requires will; It’s not about ability. We just need to keep at it. We just need to work with Congress to make sure we do this on a scale that will make it work."

Someone needs to get this Jon Stewart on the Daily show. I think he will have a field day with "It [The Plan] just requires will; It’s not about ability." Unfortunately, Geithner’s attitude is more scary than it is funny.

Geithner Seeks Expanded Power

It would be hard for Geithner to screw up more badly or to say dumber things. Yet, his counterattack is to seek still more power. Please consider Geithner Seeks Expanded Power to Seize Firms

The Obama administration is considering asking Congress to give the Treasury secretary unprecedented powers to initiate the seizure of non-bank financial companies, such as large insurers, investment firms and hedge funds, whose collapse would damage the broader economy, according to an administration document.

The government at present has the authority to seize only banks.

Giving the Treasury secretary authority over a broader range of companies would mark a significant shift from the existing model of financial regulation, which relies on independent agencies that are shielded from the political process. The Treasury secretary, a member of the president’s Cabinet, would exercise the new powers in consultation with the White House, the Federal Reserve and other regulators, according to the document.

Besides seizing a company outright, the document states, the Treasury Secretary could use a range of


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The Stupid Exuberance Over New Homes Sales

Home sales numbers always go up this time of year, like clockwork.  Compared to this time last year, home sales are down. – Ilene

The Stupid Exuberance Over New Homes Sales

Courtesy of John Carney at ClusterStockhouse_for_sale.jpg

OMG! You guys! The housing market is finally bottoming! Let’s party!

Every year around this time, we expect to get a phony rush from the housing market. It”s like clockwork. If it’s March, it’s time to get excited about home sales numbers. And it’s only going to get worse for the next five or six months. Then September will come around and everyone will realize that our enthusiasm was built on sand.

Why does this happen every year? Because home sales are highly seasonal.

"Anyone with kids tries to avoid disrupting their school year when possible," Barry Rithotlz explains. "And so, the ideal time to move into a new town (and school district) is prior to the start of the new school year in September. That factor, along with other annual holiday activity, explains the annual rhythm of the existing home sales."

He continues:

January is the worst month of the year for sales. From that low point, sales improve gradually for each of the next 6 months. They plateau over July and August, and then began heading down until December. This occurs year after year.

For those people who actually want to understand the state of the Housing market, you have two options that avoid the cyclical seasonality: 1) You use year over year data. This removes the seasonal patterns by  comparing January to January, June to June, etc. And 2) Compare non seasonably adjusted monthly data over the course of multiple years.

So how did the new home sales do year over year? Horrible. Sales of new homes fell 41 percent from February 2008. In other words, new home sales aren’t up. They are down. A lot.There was one bright spot in today’s data: the supply of homes at the current sales rate fell to 12.2 months’ worth from 12.9 months. 

See Also:

 




 

Phil's Favorites

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner  

I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc.  The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in p...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Zero Hedge

Debt Ceiling 101, Santelli Sounds Off

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In an effort to reach the angry mob, CNBC's Rick Santelli goes all Sesame Street on the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).

...

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Chart School

ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).

Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...



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Market Montage

Average Age of U.S. Vehicles Hits Record 10.8 Years

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high.  Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...



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Insider Scoop

Research in Motion Surging after Prem Watsa Stake

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.

Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.

Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.

Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.

...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 1/27/2012

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...

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ETF Selector

Wall Street Party Hangover (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday

Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party.  The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.

The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...



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Option Review

Big Prints In Deutsche Bank Put Options

 

Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general! AA Money Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance. Previous week P&L - $400.00 We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium! FAS Money We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope. Previous week P&L - $4372.00...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: QE-cating

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating.  Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)

Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game.  More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline.  In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up.  I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect.  I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...



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