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Archive for June, 2009

House Price Crash Rate Finally Beginning To Ease

Good news! and bad news!

House Price Crash Rate Finally Beginning To Ease 

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at ClusterStock

Good news! The rate of the price decline in the housing crash has finally begun to ease.

Bad news! Prices are still falling 18% year over year.

Specifically, in April, according to the Case Shiller index, the rate of decline in nationwide house prices eased slightly in April--to 18% from 19% in March. The rate of decline has hovered around 19%-20% for the last several months.  And prices have now declined a staggering 33%-34% from the peak.

As we’ve noted over this period, before house prices can start recovering, they have to stop falling.  And the first step toward prices stopping falling is a decline in the RATE at which they are falling.  And we are finally beginning to see that.

But we’re still talking about an astonishing rate of collapse.  And we’re still looking at a peak-to-trough decline of at least 40% and probably closer to 50% nationwide, which would be unprecedented.  And even today, with prices down 33%-34% from the peak, prices are still above fair value.

So the folks who use this slight moderation in the rate of decline to spin tales of a "bottom" or, worse, a "recovery" are smoking something.  Prices have at least another 10%-15% to fall, and they’ll likely be falling for at least another year or two.

Here’s the small uptick in the rate of decline:

caseshillerrateapril.jpg

Prices have now rolled back to mid-2003 levels.  They’ll likely be back to 2000 levels before we’re through.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 

And here’s the positive spin from the S&P press release (always look on the bright side!):

The 10-City and 20-City Composites declined 18.0% and 18.1%, respectively, in April compared to the same month in 2008. These are improvements over their returns reported for March, down 18.7% for both indices. For the past three months, the 10-City and 20-City Composites have recorded an improvement in annual returns.  Record annual declines were reported for both indices with their respective January data, -19.4% for the 10-City Composite and 19.0% for the 20-City Composite.

“The pace of decline in residential real estate slowed in April,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “In addition to the 10-City and 20-City Composites, 13


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Confidence-Market Divergence Accelerates

Confidence-Market Divergence Accelerates

The last time we got a -2.42 standard deviation between confidence and the market, things got real ugly, real fast.




Annotating Ben’s Helicopteresque Mug

Annotating Ben’s Helicopteresque Mug

Zero Hedge’s favorite artist Geoffrey Raymond hits the streets and captures the creative process in action. Also, for all who want to share their thoughts first hand (and thus become a part of history) on the “giant vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money“, the annotation of the “Big Lloyd 3 (The Root)” will occur this Friday behind ground zero (85 Broad) – not to be confused with “Big Lloyd 1 (,6 Billion)”. Pens will be provided.




Biggest Loan Movers: Week Of June 22

Biggest Loan Movers: Week Of June 22

Last week’s best performers were the companies that either filed for bankruptcy or were on the verge of doing so. Last week’s worst performers were the companies that either filed for bankruptcy or were on the verge of doing so.




Daily Highlights: 6.30.09

Daily Highlights: 6.30.09

  • Asian stocks rose, with benchmark index set for a record gain.
  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch named Erh Fei Liu as its China head of corporate and investment banking.
  • Bernie Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison for bilking investors ranging from hedge funds to charities to retirees of $60B.
  • Broadcom Corp. strengthened its unsolicited offer for Emulex Corp. by 19% to $912M
  • Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., Air China Ltd. and Singapore Airlines Ltd. can take some solace from the 43% surge in the price of jet fuel this year.
  • China raised fuel prices by as much as 11% to prevent making losses as crude oil costs rise.
  • Dollar weakens as improving risk appetite spurs yield demand.
  • Elpida Memory Inc. will receive 50 billion yen ($521 million) from the Japanese government
  • Facebook Inc. announced David Ebersman, former CFO of Genentech Inc., as its new CEO.
  • General Motors Corp. will pull out of auto-assembly venture with Toyota Motor Corp.
  • Insurgents in Nigeria drive up oil prices by striking one of Royal Dutch Shell’s units.
  • Japan’s unemployment rate rose to a five-year high in May; 5.2% from 5%in April.
  • Johnson & Johnson ordered Abbott to pay its rival $1.67B for patent infringements.
  • Justice objected to a plan by UAL Corp. and Continental to cooperate on routes world-wide.

Recent Egan-Jones Rating Actions

ASHLAND INC (ASH)
TRW AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS CORP (TRW)
KB HOME (KBH)
SEARS HOLDINGS CORP (SHLD)
BE AEROSPACE INC (BEAV)
ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS LP (EPD)
KIMBERLY-CLARK CORP (KMB)
HJ HEINZ CO (HNZ)
MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC (MU)
MCCORMICK & CO INC/MD (MKC)
LENNAR CORP (LEN)
CONAGRA FOODS INC (CAG)
LEAR CORP (LEA)

Data provided by: Egan-Jones Ratings and Analytics




Frontrunning: June 30

Frontrunning: June 30

  • Case-Shiller: home prices drop 18.1% (Bloomberg)
  • China to postpone filtering software mandate (AP)
  • How a loophole benefits GE in bank rescue (WaPo, h/t Tom) [and how CNBC's future depends on unicorns and rainbows]
  • Bernanke’s “green shoots” take over the lexicon, if not economy (Bloomberg)
  • TRW shares, debt get boost from JP Morgan (TheStreet)
  • Mauldin: a 20 year bear market (Investor Insight)
  • Malcolm Gladwell: is free the future (New Yorker)
  • Roger Altman: We’ll need to raise taxes soon (WSJ)
  • Porsche says won’t apply for new loan from KfW bank (Bloomberg)
  • BoNY takes stake in Nasdaq derivatives unit (WSJ)
  • Last call for monetizations (FX Solutions)
  • Starbucks swaps berries for artificial flavors to boost quality (Bloomberg)
  • Madoff is “evil,” but hardly unique (Barron‘s)
  • Fed exit strategy: Review and preview (Morgan Stanley)



Q2 Tuesday – Ending With A Whimper, Not A Bang

What happened to our great rally?

We started the quarter off well enough, with the Dow at 7,522 and S&P at 787 on April 1st, we flew right up to 8,000 on the Dow and 840 on the S&P the next day but then it took us the rest of the month to gain 200 more points and the last day of May we finished at 8,500 Dow, S&P 920 - nothing to write home about on the whole.  June 1st was very exciting as we made all our gains for the month that day, flying up to Dow 8,800, S&P 944 but that’s where we called a top and cashed out and it’s been pretty dull ever since as we’ve bounced up and down between 8,800 and 8,300 on the Dow and 940 and 900 on the S&P, waiting for a breakout one way or the other.

It’s dull to stay in cash, it’s like going to the track and not betting on any races.  We really thought we’d get a proper indicator by now and we had fun betting the downturn from the middle of June but even that fizzled and left us back in cash as we head into the holiday weekend.  On the bright side, the VIX has come down substantially and we are now able to pick up long options again at reasonable prices.  This will be fantastic and give us some great leverage but we still need the market to pick an actual direction. 

At least now we have earnings coming so we can evaluate various sectors and place some bets for Q3 but index buying has ruled Q2 and the performance of individual stocks has been washed away as a factor as machine trading has yanked the broader market up and down on a daily basis.  It used to matter how IBM or INTC was doing as an individual company, now the entire Nasdaq can fly to the moon and take PALM, AAPL and RIMM with it, even though it’s not very likely that all can do well in the same space for very long (remember MOT?).  We are no longer deluding ourselves that 2Bn people in Asia and Africa will be sporting the newest smart phones on the beach next summer yet the pie in the sky valuations persist, as if there is infinite room for all competitors to sell in the global marketplace.  In fact, emerging…
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Buy Pick: Jackson Hewitt (JTX)

Buy Pick: Jackson Hewitt (JTX)

jtx chartCourtesy of David at The Oxen Group

On Tuesday, The Oxen Group likes the prospects for Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc. (JTX). The company will benefit from the extremely bullish news that came from H&R Block in after hours as they beat earnings estimates with a positive earnings report. H&R Block reported better than expected profits, earnings over $700 million while last year the company only reported earnings of $543 million. The company beat Wall St.’s estimates, as well, earnings an EPS of 2.09, with The Oxen Group estimating an EPS of 2.06. The company saw better earnings with higher prices and more online processings. They did see less overall reports, but it appears that the tax services companies may fair better than expected. The company was not as optimistic as investors were as they sent the company up over 5% in after hours. The earnings rising 20% and Wall St. expectations will help JTX, tomorrow, as the company has a very similar business to H&R Block.

The market may make a move again, tomorrow. The futures are bullish currently, reflecting bullish news from Ford in after hours, as well as, expectations that consumer spending may reveal more positive results about the economy. If the market is bullish along with the HRB news, JTX will have a great day. The technicals, further, help the case for this stock. It is currently in an uptrend on stochastics, meaning more buyers are entering the stock than sellers. Further, the stock has lots of upper room on bollinger bands.

Watch for a pop and buy in on a pullback.

Entry: Recommend buying with first 10-25 minutes.
Exit: Exit on 2-4% increase
Resistance: Upper 7.00

 

 


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PPT Hiring Mortgage Quant

PPT Hiring Mortgage Quant

After throwing $1 trillion at the mortgage problem, the president’s working group realized that it needed someone who actually knew what the problem was, so it hired TREPP a few weeks ago. Now that they actually have a cash flow modeling system, the gentle souls with the invisible hands have expanded their hiring efforts, and the latest talent sought by the New York Fed is that of an MBS Quant.

In addition to the job responsibilities listed below, a successful candidate will need to be able to covertly purchase billions of toxic MBS securities with taxpayer capital with minor but encouraged spillover effect into equities and other security classes, to indicate interest in $1,000 blocks of MBS securities while in fact purchasing trillions, and to have minimal restraint when it comes to lifting a bid, especially one which should exhibit constantly rising characteristics in a no volume market. The candidate’s annual bonus will depend on the general level of the S&P at the end of the year and will be inversely proportional to the number of enforcement cases brought on by the SEC and other so-called market regulators.

Oh, Michael Moore, Oliver Stone as well as foreigners who want nothing less than stealing all of the Fed’s trading secrets – you are out of luck: “This position requires access to FOMC information, which is limited to “Protected Individuals” as defined in the U.S. federal immigration law.”

hat tip IMA5U




Watch Niall Ferguson’s “The Ascent Of Money”

Sign up here for a free trial to Phil’s Stock World.  And here’s an interesting and educational video for your evening enjoyment. Thank you John. – Ilene

Watch Niall Ferguson’s "The Ascent Of Money"

niallferguson tbi

Courtesy of John Carney at ClusterStock

The first episode of Niall Ferguson’s The Ascent of Money won’t air on PBS until July 8. But you can watch it right here right now. The four-part series traces the rise of the modern financial system, providing a historical perspective for our current crisis. One of the lessons that is very clear is that financial crises are nothing new. In fact, they’ve been a feature of financial history since earliest times. And here’s the good news: despite the trauma, things get better.

The first episode is particularly relevant today, given the news of Madoff’s 150-year sentence; it includes the story of John Law, a Scotsman who in the late seventeenth century devised a scheme not unlike Madoff’s that created the first stock market bubble and nearly destroyed France. 

The rest of the series will air all through July on PBS, with new episodes on July 8, 15, 22 and 29 at 9 p.m. (ET)

 

 

See Also:

 


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Zero Hedge

Pimco Vs Shilling: The Housing Bull Vs Bear Debate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In what was one of the most entertaining and informative live debates on Bloomberg TV since Paul vs Paul, yesterday the news station hosted Pimco's Mark Kiesel in his role as house bull (who supposedly sold his home in 2006 which according to some media makes him a swing-trade expert and top, and thus, bottom-caller) against perpetual skeptic Gary Shilling, who obviously does not share the optimism of PIMCO. His biggest concern? ...



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Chart School

The Deflation Trend

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

Deflation simply means falling prices. The 4-pack below reflects that the bond players believe in the deflation theme as the yield on the 10-year note breaks below the 2009 and 2011 lows.

Speaking of deflation and falling prices, the CRB has now broken below last summer's lows, the CRX is at last summer's lows, and Crude Oil finds itself on key rising support.


 


Cl...

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Insider Scoop

China Automotive Systems Announces Sale of Zhejiang Steering Pump Business

Courtesy of Benzinga.

China Automotive Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CAAS) oday announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Great Genesis Holdings Limited, has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its equity interest in Zhejiang Henglong & Vie Pump-Manu Co., Ltd, to the Zhejiang Vie Group Great Genesis's joint venture partner in Zhejiang. This transaction is subject to local regulatory authority approval.

Founded in 2002, Zhejiang, which designs, manufactures and markets power steering pumps, is located in Zhuji City, Zhejiang Province. According to the Agreement, Great Genesis will sell its 51% stake in Zhejiang to Vie Group for RMB52 million, which represents a 24% premium as compared to the May 20, 2012 estimated net book value of approximately RMB42 million. According to unaudited accounting information, Zh...



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Phil's Favorites

Graduation Day, Yea!

Graduation Day, Yea!

With graduates entering a new phase of their lives, I present.....Exhibit A. 
(more posts at www.littlewhitelion.com)

Check out this image and more, at Little White Lion!

...

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ETF Selector

What Will Happen Today In Europe? (VGK, FXE, EWI, EWQ, EWP, EWG)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Greece’s Exit More Symbolically Dangerous

Written by Christophe Adrien, Wall Street Sector Selector Associate Writer

The small Mediterranean country of Greece has been more than a thorn in Europe’s (NYSEARCA:VGK) back for the past eighteen months; it has been the focal point of foreign press on Europe, and in this case all press is not necessarily good press.  To truly understand the scope of the Greek debt crisis, one must analyze the Greek economy and its overall importance to the Euro.  As ever more countries bid to enter the Euro, now Greece appears to bid for an exit, the first ever in the Euro’s history.  A Greek exit from the Euro has been likened to a w...



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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 5/23/2012

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisWDCSTRONGBUYWestern Digital is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide is gaining higher expectations and its recent history of its earnings increases is significant.URIBUYProjected value continues to rise for United Rentals while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.SWHCBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valu...

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Market Montage

Market Reverses on (wait for it) Greek Headline

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

The market remains a mess right now as we are back to the environment of latter 2011 and middle 2010 where random comments from officials across the Atlantic move everything en masse.   Today the market was hit by word that preparations for Greece's exit from the EU are being considered.

Of course a denial by another official would send the market up 1% immediately.  Rinse, wash, repeat – year #3.

The bigger picture right now is all stocks are moving as one asset class as our massive correlations return.  Until that changes it is very difficult to bother to be a stock picker.

Di...

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Option Review

Options Activity Pops As Express Shares Tumble

 

Today’s tickers: EXPR, DV & SA

EXPR - Express, Inc. – Shares in apparel retailer, Express, Inc., dropped nearly 30.0% today to a new 52-week low of $16.38 after the company projected full-year earnings below those expected by analysts. Options on EXPR are far more active than usual today, with overall volume on the stock currently at 4,460 lots, up nearly 2,000% over the stock&rsq...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 21st, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: Test Issue

NEW: Ilene is available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here is this week's test version of the latest newsletter. We apologize for some formatting issues that need to be worked out. Please tell us what you think. 

Click on Stock World Weekly here, and sign in/sign up.

...

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Pharmboy

Big Pharma - Where Are We Now?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

In this article, please revisit an article written two years ago titled, "The Calm Before the Storm."  This article focused on the patent cliff that was looming in the pharmaceutical industry, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers!  Subsequent articles were written about big pharma company's revenue streams, and the pros and cons of of their later stage pipelines.  Other articles have also attempted to identify smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big reward...



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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 2/26/2012

My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin. FAS Money We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update. Last update P&L - $5499.00 IWM Money Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update. Last update P&L - $1998.00 $5KP Portfolio This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K. AAPL $50K P...

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