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Archive for July 1st, 2009

If Dick Bove Prognosticates In A Forrest And Nobody Cares, Did Dick Bove Prognosticate

If Dick Bove Prognosticates In A Forrest And Nobody Cares, Did Dick Bove Prognosticate

-Bove revises Citigroup shr view to USD 0.14 from USD 0.13 for 2010, to USD 0.34 from USD 0.32 in 2011
-Bove sees USD 11bln Q2 gain from Smith Barney venture with Morgan Stanley
-Bove rates Citigroup buy

But again, when CNBC makes fun of you, have fun supergluing the few micro pieces of credibility you may find shattered on the floor.




June Car Sales Update

June Car Sales Update

  • GM June US total vehicle sales down 33.6% vs. Exp. down 30%
  • BMW (BMW GY) US June sales down 20.3%
  • Volkswagen (VOW GY) of America June sales down 18%
  • Ford (F) June US total sales down 10.9% vs. Exp. down 17%
  • Chrysler Group US June sales -42% vs. Exp. -36%
  • Toyota June sales down 34.6%



IOU and State of Emergency

Joe Weisenthal at ClusterStock updating on California’s budget crisis drama.

IOU

schwarzenegger tbiYou know, all this time we’ve been saying that the difference between California and the Federal Government was that California couldn’t print currency to get out of a pinch.

But really, isn’t printing currency exactly what issuing IOUs is? Granted, it’s not the most solid currency given with the state you’re dealing with, but it’s something.

Anyway, we’ll get to find out, because California has missed (surprise!) its deadline for closing its budget gap and is now set to hand out IOUs instead of actual money.

Reuters: The notes will mark the first time in 17 years the most populous U.S. state’s government will have to resort to the unusual and dramatic measure.

Democrats who control the legislature could not convince Republicans late on Tuesday night to back their plans to tackle a $24.3 billion budget shortfall or a stopgap effort to ward off the IOUs. The two sides agree on the need for spending cuts but are split over whether to raise taxes.

The state still has some cash, but that will be reserved strictly for its bondholders and education spending (the kids!). But vendors, college students, state agencies will get some paper.

Please, please, please let there be an after-market in these IOUs. We’d love to see how they’re valued and how businesses will conduct exchange using them.

STATE OF EMERGENCY

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has now declared a State of Emergency for the sunny state of California.

Meanwhile, former Gov. Grey Davis was on CNBC saying he wouldn’t expect most banks to take California IOUs.

Oh, if only the constitution Article 1 Section 10 didn’t prevent the state from declaring IOUs a legal tender.

See Also:

California, killing dogs

Bail Out California, Or They’re Going To Kill Dogs

***** 

Hotel California – Eagles

 


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NY Fed On Negative Equity Estimates Among Non-Prime Borrowers

NY Fed On Negative Equity Estimates Among Non-Prime Borrowers

The New York Fed on a roll today. This time discussing the nebulous question of how many subprime borrowers have any equity at all in their house. Seeing how the GSEs are going batshit over providing 125% LTV refi options, the Fed could have probably saved $100k in taxpayer money for very unnecessary research and concluded that the answer is “Lots.” However, as your money is at work here, it makes sense to at least share the work product.

And, if one were inclined to read the whole paper, the answer is indeed “Lots.”




Chicken Farmers Have Hearts Plucked Out

Did Pilgram’s Pride’s Don Jackson have his brain plucked out too?  Read it and weep.

Chicken Farmers Have Hearts Plucked Out

Courtesy of Mish

Last December, Pilgrim’s Pride Went Bankrupt. The repercussions on chicken farmers are still being felt.

Please consider At Chicken Plant, a Recession Battle

DOUGLAS, Ga. — This small town was devastated in February when its largest employer, Pilgrim’s Pride Corp., said it would close a chicken-processing plant as part of the company’s bankruptcy filing.

Since then, city and county officials have been working to find a buyer who could save the plant’s nearly 1,000 jobs and $300,000 in annual county tax revenues. But there’s a problem: Pilgrim’s Pride isn’t eager to sell.

Pilgrim’s has so far rejected a $32 million bid for the plant from Amick Farms LLC of Batesburg, S.C., company and city officials say. Another chicken company took a look and decided Pilgrim’s asking price was too high, say people familiar with the matter. City officials say the company kept a prospective bidder from touring the plant, making it a challenge to market.

Pilgrim’s says it hasn’t been offered a fair price for the plant and is cautious about letting rivals see its manufacturing processes. In an email to the city of Douglas, Pilgrim’s President and Chief Executive Don Jackson said, "With declining demand for chicken in this terrible economy we need to remove chicken from the market. This would not be accomplished with a sale." While he said he recognized the "devastating impact" a closing would have on Douglas, "the actions do strengthen the company and help protect the jobs" of the company’s 40,000 U.S. employees and farmers.

Many businesses in the U.S. are struggling with excess capacity. From autos to airlines to houses, "there’s a landscape of industries and sectors that are recognizing that they’re going to need to scale down," says Nancy L. Rose, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics in Cambridge.

With no plant to process the birds they raise, local chicken farmers have no income to pay off debts. Months ago, the hundreds of cavernous, metal-and-wood chicken houses in the county were worth at least $200,000 each when filled with chickens, farmers say. Now, except for flies and old feathers, the structures sit empty and are virtually worthless.

Mr. Jackson, Pilgrim’s CEO, appears to have struggled


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Lending To Emerging Markets In Crisis

Lending To Emerging Markets In Crisis

The New York Fed is out with a paper on Emerging Market capital flows. In a nutshell: not much. Probably an opportune time to come out with this piece, as even blind orangutangs can see that the European currency crisis is days if not hours away, and someone, somewhere at the Federal Reserve will be taken to task if they did not have at least a theoretical contingency. Of course, the practical reality with EMs, once the commodity euphoria crashes, will be so ugly that a $1 quadrillion IMF bond raise won’t help anyone.




Cash4Gold to buy the U.S. gold reserves?

In case you missed it, here’s The Onion video that sparked the confusion.

 

Cash4Gold to buy the U.S. gold reserves?

Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made

Last week, after seeing it pop up in a number of other places, this video from The Onion about Cash4Gold wanting to buy all of the 8,000+ tonnes of U.S. gold reserves was shared here because, well, it was pretty darn funny.

You’d think that would the end of this story but, yesterday, Commodity Online (originating from India and, perhaps, not all that familiar with American-style satire) ran this story about the video, apparently not realizing that The Onion is not really "American’s Finest News Source" but a satire website offering only fake news.

IMAGE Cash4Gold, America’s leading buyer of precious metals direct from the general public, announced an offer to purchase the U.S. national gold reserve for $240 billion.

Cash4Gold stated in a press release that it learned of the federal government’s plan to turn the nation’s gold into cash after the Onion News Network broke the story at the Radio and Television Correspondents’ Association Dinner in Washington last week. President Obama and scores of other political and media leaders were on-hand as the Onion aired a video news segment announcing the emergency economic plan aimed at helping the United States pay off its debts.

Now, these Onion videos are good, but they’re not that good…

The funniest part about this whole thing is that it brings a bit more attention to the absurdity of the numbers. The U.S. government has already made some $13 trillion worth of guarantees as a result of the financial crisis, it has a debt of over $11 trillion, and a 2010 budget deficit of almost $2 trillion, but their entire gold reserves are only worth a little over $200 billion.

Appearing on The Onion to explain the government’s plan to work with Cash4Gold, Deputy Treasury Secretary Edward Kuehnel estimated the value of the pure gold bars that comprise the U.S. federal gold reserve at $200 billion. Cash4Gold’s unprecedented $240 billion offer reflects the full melt value of the U.S. stockpile, plus an added 20 percent. Melt value refers to


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Dollar Intraday Collapse

Dollar Intraday Collapse

Somewhere, Ben Bernanke is cheering the collapse of the dollar: after all it bought the market another 1%. Of course, forget his sworn duty of protecting the US currency: who cares about hyperinflation when there is a great ponzi stock bubble to reflate.




Conspiracy To Hide Bubble-Formation

Conspiracy To Hide Bubble-Formation

bubblesCourtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker


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June P&L Update From Stony Brook

June P&L Update From Stony Brook

The East Setauket mega-cores must be doing something shockingly right for a change.

June performance:

  • RIEF: up 3.93%
  • RIFF: down 5.62%… well not so right here.

Reference: S&P up 0.20%

One hopes RIFF can commingle porn server revenues and disburse proceeds to LPs.




 

Zero Hedge

Pimco Vs Shilling: The Housing Bull Vs Bear Debate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In what was one of the most entertaining and informative live debates on Bloomberg TV since Paul vs Paul, yesterday the news station hosted Pimco's Mark Kiesel in his role as house bull (who supposedly sold his home in 2006 which according to some media makes him a swing-trade expert and top, and thus, bottom-caller) against perpetual skeptic Gary Shilling, who obviously does not share the optimism of PIMCO. His biggest concern? ...



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Chart School

The Deflation Trend

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

Deflation simply means falling prices. The 4-pack below reflects that the bond players believe in the deflation theme as the yield on the 10-year note breaks below the 2009 and 2011 lows.

Speaking of deflation and falling prices, the CRB has now broken below last summer's lows, the CRX is at last summer's lows, and Crude Oil finds itself on key rising support.


 


Cl...

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Insider Scoop

China Automotive Systems Announces Sale of Zhejiang Steering Pump Business

Courtesy of Benzinga.

China Automotive Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CAAS) oday announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Great Genesis Holdings Limited, has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its equity interest in Zhejiang Henglong & Vie Pump-Manu Co., Ltd, to the Zhejiang Vie Group Great Genesis's joint venture partner in Zhejiang. This transaction is subject to local regulatory authority approval.

Founded in 2002, Zhejiang, which designs, manufactures and markets power steering pumps, is located in Zhuji City, Zhejiang Province. According to the Agreement, Great Genesis will sell its 51% stake in Zhejiang to Vie Group for RMB52 million, which represents a 24% premium as compared to the May 20, 2012 estimated net book value of approximately RMB42 million. According to unaudited accounting information, Zh...



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Phil's Favorites

Graduation Day, Yea!

Graduation Day, Yea!

With graduates entering a new phase of their lives, I present.....Exhibit A. 
(more posts at www.littlewhitelion.com)

Check out this image and more, at Little White Lion!

...

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ETF Selector

What Will Happen Today In Europe? (VGK, FXE, EWI, EWQ, EWP, EWG)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Greece’s Exit More Symbolically Dangerous

Written by Christophe Adrien, Wall Street Sector Selector Associate Writer

The small Mediterranean country of Greece has been more than a thorn in Europe’s (NYSEARCA:VGK) back for the past eighteen months; it has been the focal point of foreign press on Europe, and in this case all press is not necessarily good press.  To truly understand the scope of the Greek debt crisis, one must analyze the Greek economy and its overall importance to the Euro.  As ever more countries bid to enter the Euro, now Greece appears to bid for an exit, the first ever in the Euro’s history.  A Greek exit from the Euro has been likened to a w...



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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 5/23/2012

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisWDCSTRONGBUYWestern Digital is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide is gaining higher expectations and its recent history of its earnings increases is significant.URIBUYProjected value continues to rise for United Rentals while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.SWHCBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valu...

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Market Montage

Market Reverses on (wait for it) Greek Headline

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

The market remains a mess right now as we are back to the environment of latter 2011 and middle 2010 where random comments from officials across the Atlantic move everything en masse.   Today the market was hit by word that preparations for Greece's exit from the EU are being considered.

Of course a denial by another official would send the market up 1% immediately.  Rinse, wash, repeat – year #3.

The bigger picture right now is all stocks are moving as one asset class as our massive correlations return.  Until that changes it is very difficult to bother to be a stock picker.

Di...

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Option Review

Options Activity Pops As Express Shares Tumble

 

Today’s tickers: EXPR, DV & SA

EXPR - Express, Inc. – Shares in apparel retailer, Express, Inc., dropped nearly 30.0% today to a new 52-week low of $16.38 after the company projected full-year earnings below those expected by analysts. Options on EXPR are far more active than usual today, with overall volume on the stock currently at 4,460 lots, up nearly 2,000% over the stock&rsq...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 21st, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: Test Issue

NEW: Ilene is available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here is this week's test version of the latest newsletter. We apologize for some formatting issues that need to be worked out. Please tell us what you think. 

Click on Stock World Weekly here, and sign in/sign up.

...

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Pharmboy

Big Pharma - Where Are We Now?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

In this article, please revisit an article written two years ago titled, "The Calm Before the Storm."  This article focused on the patent cliff that was looming in the pharmaceutical industry, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers!  Subsequent articles were written about big pharma company's revenue streams, and the pros and cons of of their later stage pipelines.  Other articles have also attempted to identify smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big reward...



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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 2/26/2012

My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin. FAS Money We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update. Last update P&L - $5499.00 IWM Money Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update. Last update P&L - $1998.00 $5KP Portfolio This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K. AAPL $50K P...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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