For several weeks now in our Volatility Tracker we’ve noted the persistence of a premium in longer-dated VIX futures versus the front-month contract and especially the spot VIX. Historically, divergences like these have resolved in favor of the futures price rather than the spot VIX price, which has tended to correlate with a decline in the S&P 500.
Clearly, those tendencies haven’t held up in this case. The market has rallied relentlessly, VIX has continued its steady decline, and the relative premium in long-dated implied volatility has persisted even as it also declines in absolute terms. In other words, one might think of the spot VIX acting like a magnet, pulling down on the higher futures.
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This somewhat unusual inversion of the relationship between spot VIX and the VIX futures helps explain the downward slope of the term structure, and seems to confirm the strength of the recent rally. Even so, notice that the expectation remains for an increase in implied volatility this fall: October futures, currently just shy of 30, are still above even the long-term consensus “floor” around 28. As Larry McMillan remarks in a recent note:
Obviously, the S&P 500 Index option traders are seemingly reluctant to sell volatility for what they perceive could be a highly volatile market in the fall of this year. Conversely S&P 500 Index option buyers of those expiration months are seemingly willing to pay up for the options. This is what may be holding VIX futures prices up, even though VIX is low, and historical volatility of the S&P 500 Index is low. Are these option traders going to be correct? We do not know for sure, but it seems to be a consensus being placed by a lot of option traders.
Now, even if you think the options market will be proven right later this year, this doesn’t present a tradeable edge in itself. After all, the reason those VIX futures remain higher is that traders are willing to pay for November and December SPX options at a higher implied volatility – so any portfolio insurance purchased now will already have this information priced in. It’s also worth mentioning that, all things considered, even a five point increase in implied index volatility isn’t necessarily a…
Remember the fairy tale about AIG being an otherwise healthy insurance company that just got a little crazy selling credit default swaps? Well, it’s time to put that one to rest.
The New York Times has reviewed state regulatory filings and discovered that "AIG’s individual insurance companies have been doing an unusual volume of business with each other for many years — investing in each other’s stocks; borrowing from each other’s investment portfolios; and guaranteeing each other’s insurance policies, even when they have lacked the means to make good. Insurance examiners working for the states have occasionally flagged these activities, to little effect."
"More ominously, many of A.I.G.’s insurance companies have reduced their own exposure by sending their risks to other companies, often under the same A.I.G. umbrella," the NYT reports.
Regulators have been turning a blind eye to this sort of thing because they are worried about putting the taxpayer investment in AIG at risk.
Read that again: we invested billions in AIG and now we can’t properly regulate it without putting that investment at risk. It’s a brand new type of regulatory capture. Great work, team.
From David’s Market and Data Musings this morning:
“It is amazing that anyone would go long an equity market with a reported P/E multiple of 700x but that is indeed what we have on our hands. The end of the recession and the onset of a sustainable recovery, as we saw in 2002, are not the same thing. So this could still end badly but we will await confirmation signs that this is more than a very flashy bear market rally before shifting gears. As we said in our Tea session yesterday, the cost of missing out on the first leg of a bull market, between the lows in the major averages and the lows in employment, is 20% — the price to pay to sleep at night. If we are late, and we do not intend on being too late or staying excessively bearish, we will know once the most important component of the business cycle, the engine that keeps the motor turned on, otherwise known as employment, begins to turn around on a discernible basis. We shall wait for that event, then make up our minds, and if this is the real deal, which at this time seems unlikely in the context of an ongoing credit contraction, then we will at least have 80% of the bull market to participate in … that is, if historical experience can be used as a guide.
Show me the dividend!
The dividend yield on the S&P 500 has declined nearly 100 basis points since March, to 2¾%. At one time, the yield was at a premium to the 10-year Treasury note, but no longer. Not only that, but what is depressing the dividend yield isn’t just due to the market price appreciation but also owing to the fact that S&P 500 dividend payments have plunged 32% from a year ago (according to Howard Silverblatt at S&P) — the worst July since 2002. So far this year S&P 500 dividend payouts have declined $29.5 billion and on track to drop $61.5 billion for the year.”
And speaking of the Fed’s balance sheet (and not the public side but the $9 trillion in off-balance sheet voodoo), here is some good reading, especially with certain politicians hell bent to prevent HR1207 from occurring despite the 280 or so congressmen in support of the proposal (a very self-destructive apathy that Zero Hedge will speak more on in a few days).
David Ristau is the founder and head writer for the Oxen Group, a wildly successful web site dedicated to Trade Ideas and Education that was founded in 2008. After growing the site to over 2,500 members in 2009, David merged the Oxen Group with Phil’s Stock World in August of 2009. David studied Philosophy, Economics, and International Relations at Lake Forest College and is a disciple of Warren Buffett’s theories of value investing – it’s just the holding times they tend to disagree on!
Currently, David’s favorite stock to hold is Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF).
Oxen picks are based on a system worked out by David and his group over years of trial (and many errors) before they were ready to commit their practices to a member-supported service. Our investment style is a mixture of fundamental value short term trading based fundamental indicators, accompanying technical and entry/exit analysis and fundamental, speculation long term trades. In 2009, on the Oxen group site, we had a 60% return on 90 published day trades {whatever the actual numbers are) with 78 winners and just 12 misses.
Our philosophy with the Oxen Picks is to make a series of small-capital rapid turnover investments looking to build a consistent series of 2-5% wins rather than swinging for the fences. We are more of singles hitters than home run sluggers but keeping to realistic amounts of capital at risk and using our Virtual Portfolio Rotation System(tm) to allow even small accounts to allow for cash settlements while still being able to move on to the next opportunity allows us to keep swinging away and our very high "batting average" not only keeps us in the game, but keeps us WINNING the game, day after day as we build our accounts.
Since coming over to Philstockworld, where there are many traders who pay our entire virtual portfolio in commissions on a single trade, we’ve added the Oxen Gamble of the Day, which is our new high-risk, overnight trade that we send out via the PSW Alert system at about 3 PM each day. These are very exciting trades that are generally event-driven trades and much higher risk than our bread and butter trades but it’s a nice change of pace and also allows us to get…
It is no secret that China’s economic numbers are so cooked and unreliable, that they make the constantly changing and optimistically biased economic data out of the U.S. (especially lately) have the credibility equivalent of a Harvard Ph.D. thesis. University of Texas professor James Galbraith discusses one aspect of China’s “booming” economy, specifically the question of China’s Trade Surplus, which as he notes has been drastically inflated since 2002 due to Chinese companies over-reporting profits on exports in order to disguise various investments by foreigners into China, so as to beat capital control restrictions.
Galbraith argues the “fake profits” are so large that China may have actually ran a trade deficit in some years, and these figures casts serious doubt on the reported P&L of Chinese companies.
Focal points in the attached presentation:
Slide 5: 2003-2006, 25% to over 100% overstatement of reported exports if you use constant unit values.
Slide 10-13: increase in reported export value is not due to price increases of exports to US, Japan, or EU.
Slide 17: increase in reported export value is not due to wage increases.
Slide 19: increase in reported export value is not due to quality improvements.
Slide 21: capital inflow suggested by drop in spread of 3-mo RMB repo’s from 1.59% to (2.41%), and drop in spread of 3-mo CHIBOR vs LIBOR from 1.66% to (2.57%).
Slide 28: capital inflow seems to have gone into investments in PP&E. Slide 29: capital inflow seems to have gone into real estate investment
Total Federal Reserve balance sheet assets for the week of July 29 of $2,011 billion consisting of:
Securities held outright: $1,343 billion (an increase of $125 billion MoM, resulting from $47.5 billion in new Treasury purchases and a $77.4 billion decrease in Fed Agency Debt – this is the most rapid increase in monthly MBS purchases since March)
Net borrowings: $347 billion (a decline of $57 billion month over month)
Float, liquidity swaps, Maiden Lane and other assets: $320 billion (decrease of $49 billion month over month due to a continued reduction in Central Bank Liquidity Swaps ($28 billion) and $25 billion in CPFF outstandings).
Foreign central bank liquidity swaps are notable as they are at the lowest level since the Lehman bankruptcy ($88 billion), and presumably a good indicator on future dollar value manipulation capacity by the Fed. The rate of decline over the past week was the lowest since the metric commenced declining, and has been correlating closely with a declining dollar: this implies the Federal Reserve’s toolkit to implicitly weaken the dollar is running out of options as the Liquidity Swap gets closer to zero.
Foreign holdings of USTs and Agencies increased by a meager $27.4 billion monthly to $2,793 billion from $2,766 billion in the prior month. This is roughly 20% of the comparable increase in Securities Held Outright by the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Base was at $1,663 billion, indicating the flat/declining trend YTD
Sources: H.4.1 and H.3
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I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc. The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in p...
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In an effort to reach the angry mob, CNBC's Rick Santelli goes all Sesame Street on the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).
Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...
Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high. Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...
Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.
Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.
Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.
Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...
Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday
Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party. The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.
The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...
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Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general!
AA Money
Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance.
Previous week P&L - $400.00
We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium!
FAS Money
We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope.
Previous week P&L - $4372.00...
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Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating. Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)
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Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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