Daily UK and Europe Highlights – 11 August 2009
Courtesy of Raymond Shaw
Good morning fellow Zero Hedgers. Tuesday is packed with data out from Asia and more from UK and Eurozone. Lots of interesting news and news and informational articles covered today. Data out of Eastern Europe is not offering much in terms of green herbs, mostly pointing at huge deficits and declines in CPI measurements, trade data (both import and exports) is also showing huge declines. Earnings reports from Danke Bank and Aareal bank are showing significant stresses in their primary lending markets of Scandinavia, Ireland and the Baltic states; that information comes above all the horse manure being offered by policymakers on smokable recovery green herbs.
Quick update on Asia – Asian indices are mostly higher. Lots of data out from China – Industrial Production 10.8% y/y vs. 11.5%, CPI y/y -1.8% vs. -1.7%, Fixed Asset Investment 32.9% y/y vs. 34.2%, PPI y/y -8.2% vs. -8.3%, Retail Sales y/y 15.2% vs. 15.1%, Trade Balance 10.6B vs 10.1B. Japanese Monetary Policy Statement is out (cautious assessment held), overnight call rate left unchanged at 0.10%. Japanese Household Confidence ticked higher to 39.4 vs. previously reported 37.6, BOJ notes that price falls are accelerating as opposed to its previous policy wording of just falling, however Shirakawa doesn’t see a deflationary spiral ahead (yeah mate, keep smoking the herb); RAN Squawk has a nice list of key points on this matter. The typhoons and earthquakes are wreaking havoc across the Asian region.
An article out yesterday from Edmund Conway of the Telegraph analyses the UK house price crash and why it may not be over. It is full of charts and interesting facts from previous crashes and recoveries of the UK housing market. On that note, I will provide a mini-analysisof the Land Registry’s July house price and sales data which will provide an interesting light on the actual number of sales registered with the UK government.
- Must read: UK Conservatives Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne says taxes will have to rise (Telegraph)
- Must read: Baltic states downgraded by S&P, Latvia lowered to BB (junk), outlook negative (Telegraph, Bloomberg)
- Typhoon Morakot sparks exodus: up to 1,000 missing in Taiwan landslide (Telegraph)
- Friends Provident agrees to £1.86bn Resolution takeover (Telegraph)
- Pound falls ahead of inflation report (Telegraph)
- SFO to rule on MG Rover investigation (Telegraph, Guardian)
- Must read: Morgan Stanley’s lessons from bear market history books (Guardian)
- Doubts over Lloyds lending commitment (Guardian)
- Britain to sign Liechtenstein tax deal (Telegraph, Bloomberg)
- Lloyds shares lose ground as institutions spurn talk of fund-raising (Telegraph, FT)
- BAE on target with 370 mln Stg to maintain and develop torpedoes for next 10 years (Telegraph)
- U.K. Housing Market Improves as Most Surveyors in Two Years See Price Gain, RICS says (Bloomberg)
- Lehman Contract Is Test Case in U.K for Billions of Dollars in Other Swaps (Bloomberg)
- InterContinental Hotels Posts Loss After Writing Down Value of Some Hotels (Bloomberg)
- International Power First-Half Profit Rises 50-Fold on Rising Asian Demand (Bloomberg)
- Polish Government May Agree Asset Sales Are Best Option to Finance Deficit (Bloomberg)
- Hungarian Inflation Accelerates as Tax Increase Outweighs Recession Effect (Bloomberg)
- Pound Sentiment to Turn `Bearish’ on Decline Below $1.635 Level, RBS Says (Bloomberg)
- U.K. Trade Gap Unexpectedly Widened in June as Global Recession Persist (Bloomberg)
- Romania’s Inflation Rate Fell in July as Recession Saps Consumer Demand (Bloomberg)
- Russia’s Economy Contracted Record 10.9% Last Quarter as Decline Deepens (Bloomberg)
- Must read: Danske Reports Loss, Sees Loan Losses Remaining High (Bloomberg)
- BAA to pay £1bn to upgrade Terminal 2 at Heathrow (The Independent)
- Must read: Dublin office vacancy rate may jump to 27pc (The Independent IE)
- Must read: Mazars study shows 25pc of SME business loans in trouble (The Independent IE)
- Closures exceed new firms for first time in six years (The Independent IE)
- Norges Bank May Leave Benchmark Interest Rate on Hold as Recession Abates (Bloomberg)
- Euro to Weaken to 130 Yen (EUR/JPY) as Rally Dies Out Near 140: Technical Analysis (Bloomberg)
- Corporate Bond Risk Increases in Europe, Credit-Default Swap Prices Show (Bloomberg)
- Steinmeier Says Mass Unemployment Threatens to Damage Germany’s Democracy (Bloomberg)
- Consumer Prices Show First Annual Drop in 22 Years as Crisis Hits Spending (Bloomberg)
- OPEC won’t cut at September meeting, Merrill’s head of Global Commodities said
- ECB says banks deposited EUR 228.344bln with it overnight, borrowed EUR 772mln at marginal rate
- ECB Eurosystem bought EUR 5.7bln of covered bonds as of August 10
- Fitch Solutions says Q2 earnings ease liquidity stress for European financials
- China July Fuel Oil output -29.5% at 1.4mln tons; YTD output -20.8% – Stats Bureau
Economic Calendar:
- Russia Annual GDP Real (Q2 P) Y/Y -10.9% vs. Prev. -9.8%
- German Wholesale Price Index (Jul) M/M -0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.9%); Y/Y -10.6% vs. Exp. -9.7% (Prev. -8.8%)
- German CPI (Jul F) M/M 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%); Y/Y -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -0.6%)
- French Central Govt. Balance (EUR) (Jul) M/M -86.6B vs. Prev. -88.7B
- Swedish CPI – Headline Rate (Jul) M/M -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 0.2%); Y/Y -0.9% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. -0.6%)
- UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/mln (Jun) M/M -GBP 6451 vs. Exp. -GBP 6200 (Prev. -GBP 6263, Rev. to -GBP 6174)
- UK CML loans for house purchase rose 23% in June from May
- UK DCLG House Prices (Jun) Y/Y -10.7% vs. Exp. -12.0% (Prev. -12.5%)
- UK Conventional Tap Auction for GBP 3.5bln (Act) 3.75% 2019, Bid/Cover 1.89 vs. Prev. 2.00
- Czech Industrial Output fall decelarates to 12.2% y/y in June
- Hungarian headline inflation rises to 5.1% y/y in July, below expectations
- Lithuania July HICP up 7.8% y/y vs. 8.6% in June, down 0.8% on monthly basis
- Slovak Trade Balance Shows Deficit In June (EUR -6.3 mln vs. revised surplus of EUR 128 mln in May), annual decline of 25.7%, imports slipped 26.7% in June
- Dutch Industrial Output dropped 13% y/y in June
- Romania CPI rose 5.06% y/y, slower than 5.86% y/y in June, 0.7% monthly decline
Interesting articles from other Blogs, this morning:
- Gamblers and statisticians share a common interest – mentioning traders would be redundant (Steve Jones, Telegraph)
- Punishing Anonymity – by Andrew Keen – verbal claptrap, naturally, he has not heard of ZH captchas ! (Andrew Keen, Telegraph)
- Are these the corporate loans that got RBS in trouble? – full list of deals compiled (Guardian Data Blog)
- Betting on Brent – analysing the disparities between the WTI and Brent contracts (FT Alphaville)
- Where the Nuclear Reactors are – charting the nuclear reactors across various countries (FT Energy Source)
- Natural Gas fighting difficult battle in Washington – its place in future policy making (FT Energy Source)
- Greek journalist sued for writings on Bosnia (Fistful of Euros)
- Not such a Jobs Economy – exploring the employment/population ratio (European Tribune)
Make sure you to watch the RAN Squawk ‘EU Morning Briefing’ video and visit the RAN Squawk News page.
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