Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

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Thanks Phil, I have adjusted my position by getting rid of the IYF puts, and selling the FAZ puts. You have so many of these awesome little tricks in your playbook that it really amazes me. I toally love your analogy by the way: Do you want insurance that you have to pay for, or do you want insurance that pays you?

- Craigzooka

Phil, I was so impressed with the personal note in the comments that I went ahead and paid for a months trial of premium that I have been on the fence for awhile about. Just reading the comments makes me already glad for the purchase.

- Smasher

I would like to thank Phil and PSW crew for the insight and assistance (even the liberals). In December I initiated long stock positions buying stock, writing calls and puts in AAPL, WFR and CHK (scaling in and out). Over the last week I have been trimming back my positions selling stock and taking out my callers and putters. I am now back to my initial 25% position that I started with in December. However this time, my cost basis on shares AAPL, WFR, and CHK is $0! With money to spare from those positions.

- Texasmotion

The strategy you have laid out pretty much mirrors much of my trading activity. I also mix in some momentum plays and "drop dead" bargains that come across my radar. My YTD trading profit is 63%. Back in March when Phil said "unless you think the world is coming to an end, then NOW is the time to start taking positions in Buy/Writes with the VIX so high." I jumped in with both feet - ( thanks, again Phil)

- Chaps

Oil – thanks Phil, got in late at 0.53 on the 38p today, set a sell for 0.75 and took the dog for a walk – 70% gain and more than enough $$ to buy dog food. TZA Aug 35/40 BCS – closed out for a 100% gain in under a month – thanks again for introducing me to these trades.

- CanuckBob

BTW Phil, I wanted to relate a conversation I had with my business partner yesterday. I told him that I have been much more relaxed about my investments ever since I joined your site. It's funny how a 15-20% cushion does to your nerves. My returns have increased dramatically and my risk diminished. Many thanks for the guidance and patience. Good thing I am doing better financially as you might have increased my life expectancy as well!

- StJeanluc

Just closed out my V put for 50% in 24 hours thanks Phil!

- Humvee

I have been here a year, and made most of my money back from the 14K fall. The people here are more than willing to help whe Phil cannot get to it. FWIW - This site is my brokerage firm, I was with Wells Fargo Portfolio and it was costing a fortune to trade, the costs here are more than offset with the data, trade ideas and profits you should make.. and I get a chuckle out of Cap and Phil's rantings on healtcare, guns, oh, yeah, and government….

- Pharmboy

Phil - Wow…wow. The vision and inate grasp of the options world you posess is rather staggering. It's this type of experience that I really hope to develop. I'm afraid I still can't see the moves, but I WILL learn. I cannot thank you enough for the patience, knowledge and effort you put into this place. Please keep it going!

- Where

Personally I admire and respect you disciplined approach to investing. My style is at the extreme side of aggressive and I have to learn how to be less that way. If I yell " Let it Ride" at my house, no one says a word so I can't use that to temper my behavior. Phil has done a pretty good job of knocking some of my potential moves and as a result, I have increased my portfolio value by almost 25% since late July.

- DoubleD

Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!

- Neverworkagain

Brilliant covering of the arcane, the profane , but never the mundane! Easy to understand the reason for your huge following, Phil, and why you have become a must read on my daily agenda. Please accept my complete appreciation.

- Seeking Truth

Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!

- Josiah

Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!

- JWick1981

I doubled down on our USO June $35 puts on Tuesday afternoon and listened to your posting yesterday and sold 1/2 midday and the rest I sold (luckily) at the top of the market yesterday with the last 1/4 of my contracts at 100% return in less than one day!

- Samlawyer

Nice intraday trading calls this week Phil. You have me hooked on trading SPY options analogously to your DIA moves. I paid some tuition the last few weeks but I think I have the hang of it. Don't be greedy and be happy with 0.05 to 0.10 and sometimes you're lucky with much bigger moves. Thanks for the training!

- TmDecay

Fed days are fun! Just for grins I decided to see how much money I could make in two clicks. I bought DIA calls right when the surge started and then sold them the minute they hit my account. Net gain of 20% in 20 seconds. Can't do that very often…

- MrMocha

Peter D: great write-up for Short Strangles, Part 1, looking forward to Part 2, particularly the adjustment part.

- RMM

Took profit on QQQ 57 Puts, bot 40 at $0.07, sold 20 for $0.15 and 20 for $0.32. Thank, Phil

- Bobhu

Thanks Phil, your note at the close was responsible for making those silly GOOG sellers pay for my NYC sojourn, nice!!

- zeroxzero

Thanks for the oil tip Phil: Bot & sold the USO May 29 calls for net $125. Not bad for few minutes work.

- JWick1981

As a fellow "low-end" investor I like Phil's Buy/Write strategy on solid stocks. Before I came here I loved to try to "figure things out" with very little success "TRYING TO FIGURE THINGS OUT"! I traded too much and fell in love with stocks that "should have done" what they didn't do. Now a majority of my accounts are in Buy/Writes suggested here or cash (waiting for a better time for more Buy/Writes). I use 15-20% of my total holding to short term trade and hedge. This is manageable with my full time job as a business owner. I have found Phil's system a more discipline way to achieve the returns I want without relying on my ability (more like inability to "figure things out").

- DCalrk41

Phil is a master at keeping you laughing, as well as making you money. - It is like " laughing all the way to the bank!"

- Gel1

On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

- Iflantheman

Phil — gotta thank you for your advice this week, and especially today. I took many aspects of your advice this morning, with all of my shorts -- being prepared on the short side, selling into intial excitement, taking the money and running, not being greedy. I also made money on the your /QM and /YM calls. It used to be I would be terrified of weeks like this one. Now, it feels somewhat comfortable, for want of a better word.

- Escohen5

WOW, glad I went bearish… Phil, thanks for the help on the QID calls yesterday, I turned it into a partial cover rolling down to the Feb 52s selling the 55s 1/2 covered. Sold 1/2 and now lowered my cost basis to $4.38 on the $52s (fully covered).

- Texasmotion

Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.

- Oknoman

Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!

- Gel1

I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays. The educational material alone is worth several times the price of admission. I have had an expensive education on what not to do- what is past is past- I am looking forward to profitable/fun future.

- Pstas

hil, I hit my targets for the year in my 401K (thanks in no small part to your site), so I cashed out of all positions a couple of weeks ago. Feels good... I'm conservative with this money –looking for 2% per month, which i've been able to do… thx.

- Lunar

Archive for August, 2009

Chris Flowers: One Hit Wonder?

by ilene - August 31st, 2009 11:10 am

On the bright side, maybe there’s a high level government job waiting for him.

Chris Flowers: One Hit Wonder?

Water lillies, flowers - the business insider Courtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock

These days it is a pretty sure bet that Chris Flowers regrets telling investors in his private equity funds that "every single investment" would make money. His largest fund is said to be down between 60% and 70%, and some secondary market buyers assign shares in it no value at all.

William Cohan has an extraordinary piece in Fortune on the rise and fall of Flowers, the former Goldman Sachs wonderboy (once the youngest partner ever) who became one of the biggest names in banking by buying Japan’s Shinsei bank for $1 billion in 2000 and IPOing it four years later for $10 billion. But these days his reputation is under fire as the banking system tries to recover from the ruinous 2008.

"He did one great assisted transaction in Japan," one unnamed banker tells Cohan, "and off that he raised $7 billion. The great failing in private equity is to assume that you can repeat the past. I think he just assumed, for instance, he could repeat Shinsei over in Germany. Big mistake."

That person is referring to the $1.5 billion tender offer Flowers big fund made to acquire 24.9% of Hypo Real Estate Holding, a Munich-based commercial real estate lender. Flowers paid a 25% premium to where the shares were trading before the deal was announced. Just four months later Hypo had to turn to the German government for assistance. The German government ended up owning 90% of Hypo, drastically diluting Flowers’ stake. These days his investment in the bank has probably dropped in value by 87%.

But what may have hurt Flowers’s reputation even more than his investment losses is the role he played in Bank of America’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch. Flowers, while at Goldman Sachs, had helped put together the merger of NationsBank and Bank of America. In early 2008, when Merrill looked to raise capital, Flowers poured through its books but concluded the asking price was too high. But when the crisis hit on September 11, Flowers found himself back at Merrill as an adviser to Bank of America.

Flowers issued a "fairness opinion" on the deal, endorsing the 70% premium Bank of America paid for the shares of Merrill Lynch. He was repeatedly invoked in the press…

Tags: Bank of America, Banks, Chris Flowers, Financial Crisis, Financial Services, Merrill Lynch, Wall Street

Posted in Phil's Favorites | No Comments »

Bond Market To Stock Investors: You People Are A Bunch Of Morons

by ilene - August 31st, 2009 10:59 am

Bond Market To Stock Investors: You People Are A Bunch Of Morons

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

Tags: Economy, Housing, Housing Crisis, Investing, Markets, Recession, S&P 500, Stock Market, stocks

Posted in Phil's Favorites | No Comments »

Loans Versus Bonds Relative Value: Week of August 27

by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2009 10:58 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The secured-unsecured divergence continues, with leveraged universe loans tighter in the last week by 5 bps, back to unchanged with two weeks ago, while bonds continue drifting gradually wider, 11 bps wider over the last week and over 70 bps over the past two weeks.

The biggest underperformers in the unsecured world were the uber-beta, dramamine pushing companies such as TRW and West Corp, both of which exploded over 150 bps. If history is any indication, next week it will be Select Medical’s turn to turn the rollercoaster on turbo in either direction. In the meantime, credit investors curse that the equity bubble has made its way into the otherwise more normal and rational credit market.

Source: LPC LoanConnector

Posted in Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Citadel Terminates E-Trade 120 Million Share Sale Plan

by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2009 10:16 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Readers may have been curious what some of the things the OTS told Citadel to do, while it suspended the firm’s application to dominate 97.5% of E-Trade’s order flow. Well, one of them apparently was to stop the proposed 120 million share sale that Citadel was hoping to do and offload some of its toxic holdings in exchange for front-running a substantial portion of retail traffic flow.

From Reuters:

Citadel Affiliate Terminates 10b5-1 Stock Trading Plan in Connection with E*TRADE Investment

Citadel Investment Group, L.L.C., a leading global financial institution, announced today that its affiliate, Citadel Equity Fund, Ltd., has terminated the Rule 10b5-1 trading plan it entered into on August 11, 2009 in connection with its holdings of E*TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) common stock.

No sale of E*TRADE common stock had been made under the Plan, which was to commence on August 31, 2009.

The Plan provided for the sale of up to 120,000,000 shares of E*TRADE common stock, representing slightly over 10% of Citadel`s holdings of E*TRADE common stock on an “if and as converted” basis. Citadel owns in excess of 1.1 billion shares of E*TRADE Common Stock on such basis, in addition to its existing debt holdings.

Citadel believes that the termination of the Plan at this time is in the best interests of E*TRADE and all of its stakeholders. Ken Griffin, Citadel Founder and CEO, has consulted with E*TRADE`s Board of Directors and they have been fully apprised of Citadel`s decision.

One always loves when Ken Griffin is so concerned about the interest of the stakeholders of the companies he provides rescue financing to only to obtain unprecedented visibility into their business model, core products and order flow. One however wonders what the true motive was for this action, and just what other requirements the OTS likely listed before they allow this retail investor “trade facilitation” to proceed as scheduled. Btw, one wonders what the update on the Citadel-Malyshev litigation is these days… Also, just who is it that runs Citadel’s High Frequency Trading desk these days?

Posted in Immediately available to public | No Comments »

This Should End The Semantic Debate Over Whether The Fed Is Monetizing

by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2009 9:48 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Steve Liesman with Tim Geithner on June 2: “The Fed is absolutely not monetizing debt” (9 mins, 9 seconds into the clip)

Steve Liesman with Bill Dudley of the New York Fed, “I don’t think [the Fed] is monetizing debt to any meaningful degree.” (2 mins, 16 seconds into the clip)

At least Steve could could have had the courtesy of telling Bill what the Treasury Secretary said on the topic 3 months prior so the two could have kept the story straight. Either way, this will finally put the semantic debate over monetization to rest.

Bonus material: Dudley admits that the Fed is using excess reserves to buy Treasuries. Bill, duration mismatch is the last thing you will have to worry about come “unwind” time.

“Excess reserves are funding the purchases of Treasuries and Agencies” (3 mins, 10 seconds into the clip)

And there you have it folks. The Fed’s pyramid scheme is now confirmed.

Posted in Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed By Creation Of More Bubbles

by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2009 9:15 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

In a phenomenal demonstration of frankness and true economic assessment, the head of the China Investment Council, Lou Jiwei, who controls China’s $298 billion sovereign wealth fund, admits the ponzi nature of today’s markets:

Both China and America are addressing bubbles by creating more bubbles and we’re just taking advantage of that. So we can’t lose.

Indeed, they can’t lose thanks to the criminal silence on behalf of Mr. Jiwei’s US financial counterparties. It doesn’t get any simpler than that folks. Keep in mind Madoff was thrown in jail for a few hundred years for much less: what’s $55 billion when you are dealing with a $20 trillion+ global equity market Ponzi scheme. And yet both China and the US continue their struggle to perpetuate a Ponzi, with the full implicit backing of all financial, regulatory and legal authorities. The system is now officially broken, even ignoring the conspiratorial ramblings of fringe bloggers.

And as for who, aside from TradeBot and HAL9000 are speculating in equity markets, look no further than China, which is dead set on exporting its tulip mania to US stock markets:

Asked whether CIC would be a keen buyer in the United States, Lou said CIC can buy anywhere in the world, but it cannot avoid buying U.S. assets because the American economy and capital markets are so large.

Lou said CIC was building a broad investment portfolio that includes products designed to generate both alpha and beta; to hedge against both inflation and deflation; and to provide guaranteed returns in the event of a new crisis.

He said the risk of a decline in the dollar risks was more of a national issue for China than for CIC because its capital is in dollars.

So, dear investors, now you know that you are officially playing in the world greatest Ponzi scheme. One wonders at what point the US authorities will have the guts to at least admit what China is now openly saying is one big pyramid scheme. And as for the Fed’s prudent approach to fighting bubbles – well, that is now completely discredited, as the only goal for the US Federal Reserve is to make sure that Wall Street’s “VIP club” manages to cash…

Posted in Immediately available to public | 2 Comments »

Swing trading virtual portfolio – week of August 31st, 2009

by Optrader - August 31st, 2009 9:03 am

This post is for live trades and daily comments.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here

- Optrader

Posted in OpTrader | 466 Comments »

Frontrunning: August 31

by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2009 8:52 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Bernanke, Printing and Press LLC makes $14 billion profit on $X trillion in AUM: we have still not seen the investor letter (Reuters)
Time to get tough with AIG (Reuters)
Wall Street stealth lobby defends $35 billion derivatives haul (Bloomberg)
The FDIC is so generous with our money – Raft of deals for failed banks puts U.S. on hook for billions (WSJ)
Shipping rates seen falling 50% on China, fleet size (Bloomberg)
Evans-Pritchard: Our quarter-century penance is just starting (Telegraph)
Fed’s Dudley: early to mull curbing security purchases (Reuters, this should be a 2099 headline)
Baker Hughes to buy BJ Services for $5.5 billion (Bloomberg)
Chris Flowers down 60-70%: time to throw in the towel (CNNMoney)
Fekete: Gold is pale because it has so many thieves plotting against it (Financial Sense)
Quayle to the rescue after all: Cerberus to raise new funds after $4.8 billion in redemptions (Bloomberg)
The message from Jackson Hole (Morgan Stanley)
Hudson Institute: Weekly economic report (HI)

Posted in Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Daily Highlights: 8.31.09

by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2009 8:27 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Asian stocks decline on lower China earnings, strengthening yen.
China’s stock markets fell sharply as upcoming share offering spurred concerns over increased supply.
Chinese govt to cut frequency of fuel price adjustments to support the economy.
Democratic Party of Japan sweeps to power, ending LDP’s half-century reign.
Economists split over whether Fed’s infusion of credit will spur inflation.
Germany to offer businesses addln €10B in govt-backed loans to ease credit crunch.
India’s first-quarter GDP grows 6.1%, accelerating for first time since 2007.
Japan’s industrial prodn index rose seasonally adjusted 1.9% on month in July.
Jimena develops into a dangerous Category 4 storm off Mexico’s Pacific coast.
Oil prices fell to near $72 as investors question US economic recovery.
UK economy shrank 0.7% in Q2, slightly less than initially reported.
US August auto-sales rate may be highest since April 2008 on ‘Clunkers’.
ANZ sees bad debt cycle peaking in Australia.
Apple Inc. may sell more than 3M iPhones in China during the next year.
AstraZeneca’s Brilinta cuts heart attack, death more than Sanofi’s Plavix: study.
Baker Hughes buys BJ Services for $5.2B in cash and stock.
Bertelsmann AG posted H1 loss of €368M on restructuring, impairments charges.
Carrefour SA posted H1 loss of €58M on a 1.8% drop in sales at €2.7B.
China Merchants Bank’s H1 net falls 38%, to raise $3.22B via rights issue.
GM announces a new joint venture in China to make light-duty trucks.
Huntsman Corp. has agreed to purchase Tronox Inc. for $415M.
Intel ups Q3 revenue f’casts to $8.8-9.2B, cites stronger-than-expected PC demand.
Intesa Sanpaolo’s Q2 net falls 62% to $736.6M amid higher provisions.
Metallurgical Corp. of China to raise about $2.3B via an IPO.
Pacer International enters into amended and restated credit agreement.
PetroChina plans to boost capacity by acquiring $3.22B worth of assets from CNPC.
Tiffany & Co. said sales trends in August are meeting its expectations.

Economic Calendar: Data on Chicago PMI to be released today.

Earnings Calendar: ALOY, BNHNA, CFI, CMM, SINA.

Companies to watch: Apple, AstraZeneca, Culp, GM, Pacer Intl.

Recent Egan-Jones Rating Actions:

AMERICAN TOWER CORP (AMT)
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS)
PNM RESOURCES INC (PNM)
OWENS-ILLINOIS INC (OI)
WHIRLPOOL CORP (WHR)
TRANSOCEAN LTD (RIG)
CROWN HOLDINGS INC (CCK)
STANLEY WORKS/THE (SWK)
SNAP-ON INC (SNA)
GREAT ATLANTIC & PACIFIC TEA CO (GAP)
SAFEWAY INC (SWY)
JC PENNEY CO INC (JCP)
TOLL BROTHERS INC (TOL)

Data provided by Egan-Jones Ratings and Analytics

Posted in Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Monday Mandarin Market Meltdown

by Phil - August 31st, 2009 8:17 am

The Shanghai Composite fell 6.7% this morning!

I mentioned our love of FXP (ultra-short China) in our August Market Review and the short sale of FXP puts (a bullish play) was our primary cover in the last $100KP since early August for exactly the reason we are seeing play out today. Of course China’s problems were my theme on Friday and on 8/16 we warned that China’s GDP wasn’t real and on 8/7 we pointed out that China’s 2009 growth was nothing more than an accounting trick after my August 6th article in which I pointed out that GS was desperately working to pump China up at the top (likely while they were dumping their own shares on unsuspecting suckers). Do fundamentals matter? Sure they do — evenutally. But we had to roll and DD our August FXP short puts (big winners now) as it always pays to remember the words of John Keynes: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

We nailed the move in the Shanghai, which is now down 25% since we turned negative on it but the Hang Seng, which is much easier to manipulate as it’s controlled by foreign IBanks (our beloved gang of 12), has mysteriously flatlined near their August highs, maintaining the myth of the Chinese recovery so Uncle Rupert could run his almost daily articles telling you how great the global economy is on the other side of the world, where you can’t see it. Interestingly, in China he’s running stories telling them how the US economy is leading the way back and in Europe he has total control of the media so whatever he wants to tell them is the truth anyway.

By the way, this is your LAST week to get Stock Market Truth with a FREE Trial Subscription to the PSW Report

China stocks Ler’s see how rational the markets get as mainland China falls to it’s lowest level since May and let’s keep in mind that "limit down" on the Shanghai is 10% so a 6.7% drop in one day indicates that scores of companies were likely halted at 10% down. It’s going to take some really big plate spinning by GS et al (already attempred by GS last night with this idiotic release calling China a "bright spot" and raising outlook 50%) to get this one back on track. As I keep saying – the one thing "THEY" can’t fight is a…

Tags: BHI, BJS, CHINA, DIS, FXI, FXP, GS, MVL, Shanghai Composite

Join Member's Chat - 166 Comments Here »

Phil's Favorites

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

January 27th, 2012 1:52 pm

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner

I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc. The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in p...

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

January 27th, 2012 1:40 pm

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Zero Hedge

Fitch Gives Europe Not So High Five, Downgrades 5 Countries... But Not France

January 27th, 2012 1:01 pm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Festive Friday fun:

FITCH TAKES RATING ACTIONS ON SIX EUROZONE SOVEREIGNS
ITALY LT IDR CUT TO A- FROM A+ BY FITCH
SPAIN ST IDR DOWNGRADED TO F1 FROM F1+ BY FITCH
IRELAND L-T IDR AFFIRMED BY FITCH; OUTLOOK NEGATIVE
BELGIUM LT IDR CUT TO AA FROM AA+ BY FITCH
SLOVENIA LT IDR CUT TO A FROM AA- BY FITCH
CYPRUS LT IDR CUT TO BBB- FROM BBB BY FITCH, OUTLOOK NEGATIVE

And some sheer brilliance from Fitch:

In Fitch's opinion, the eurozone crisis will on...

Chart School

ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further

January 27th, 2012 12:35 pm

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).

Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...

Market Montage

Average Age of U.S. Vehicles Hits Record 10.8 Years

January 27th, 2012 11:15 am

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high. Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...

Insider Scoop

Research in Motion Surging after Prem Watsa Stake

January 27th, 2012 10:05 am

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.

Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.

Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.

Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.

...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 1/27/2012

January 27th, 2012 12:00 am

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...

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ETF Selector

Wall Street Party Hangover (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GLD)

January 26th, 2012 6:16 pm

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday

Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party. The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.

The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...

Option Review

Big Prints In Deutsche Bank Put Options

January 26th, 2012 1:38 pm

Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI

...

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2012

January 23rd, 2012 8:56 am

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

January 22nd, 2012 10:09 pm

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general! AA Money Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance. Previous week P&L - $400.00 We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium! FAS Money We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope. Previous week P&L - $4372.00...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: QE-cating

January 22nd, 2012 2:52 am

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating. Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

January 18th, 2012 1:09 am

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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