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Archive for October, 2009

White House LIES: CFC

White House LIES: CFC

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

Cash For Clunkers Program To End In 3 Days

This is ridiculous and anyone who believes it deserves to eat The White House Dog’s used food:

The administration’s blog post argued that Clunkers helped to lower auto prices on the rest of the vehicle market as well, a fact the administration said Edmunds ignored.

What a total load of crap.

First, I personally walked into dealerships during the "CFC" program time, and every single one of those dealers was literally screwing everyone who walked into the door.

Normally, you can buy an American car for $100 or so over invoice price.  I have, in fact, not purchased one vehicle for more since I started buying cars!  My last "new" American vehicle, a 2002 Suburban, was bought during the 0% "craze" following 9/11 and even with the 0% financing I bought it for $1,000 UNDER factory invoice.  I saw no dealer willing to sell at anything approaching that number this time – they were all selling at full sticker, and two had their own "supplemental rip-off stickers" on the windows that they refused to negotiate on yet were full of junk (the usual "undercoating" and "fabric protection" for $250 garbage.)  People literally got robbed to the tune of $2,000, $3,000 and sometimes more than the rebate was worth on these so-called "deals."

Second, this "program" destroyed the low end resale market.  It literally took all those cars and crushed them!  If you were in the market for such a clunker as the only car you could afford they all disappeared for the duration of that program.  This did severe damage to sections of the used-car market and the consumers dependent on it.

This program was nothing other than a royal screwing of the American Consumer and a sop to the UAW, and that’s a fact.  Edmunds got this exactly right and the White House is pissed off that they got called on their incessant lies by a very influential auto industry publication.

Well, boo-freaking-hoo Barry.

 


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Is David Tice the John the Baptist of Wall Street?

Is David Tice the John the Baptist of Wall Street?

John-the-Baptist

Courtesy of Damien Hoffman at Wall St. Cheat Sheet

John the Baptist is responsible for the Apocalyptic stories in our cultural consciousness. He envisioned a world in which a total hell would descend on earth more wild than Marylin Manson’s most drug induced hallucinations. Similarly, as Liz Claman correctly notes in the following video, David Tice sees the world from a different prism: a completely hellish one.

David manages a bearish fund. So, like anyone who knows how the Wall St. machine works, he makes the rounds to talk his book. However, like all evangelists before him, David’s repetition has not done much in the way of changing reality.

Permabulls and permabears share the same common flaw: they take one extreme view and carry it to its logical (although improbable) conclusion. As a result, they fail to account for the ever-changing nature of societies and the complexity of the unknown.

Humor yourself and decide whether David is a consistent investment adviser — his fund’s performance (Nasdaq: BEARX) is not — or one step away from the loony bin:
 

 

Click here to watch the video.

Note: Wall St. Cheat Sheet is offering a FREE 14-day, no risk trial of the Premium Newsletter - just click here.   

 


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Icahn Discloses Plans For CIT

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

CIT is now certain to file for bankruptcy over the weekend, after it was unable to obtain the requsite number of consents for its exchange offer. The only question is whether or not the bankruptcy will be a pre-packaged, in which bondholders will accept specific haircuts or if it will be a free fall Chapter 11, which would likely promptly devolve into a Chapter 7 liquidation, if creditors are unable to come to a non-blocking agreement. In an odd development today the firm announced that it had chosen Icahn to provide an incremental $1 billion DIP for when the company does file. By doing so, the BOD and the executive committee basically kissed their jobs goodbye: Icahn has been vocal and extremely critical of everyone at the fancy-lobbied firm at 505 Fifth.

With the new priming financing, Icahn will further lower his cost basis, and raise his weighted average holdings in the firm’s capital structure. Icahn has already stated that he is the largest holder of company bonds, which has as of yet been unconfirmed. We expect one of the affidavits to be filed promptly at Bowling Green on Sunday to confirm or deny this claim.

In the meantime, the below interview by Fox Business News with Icahn should bring some clarity for the plans that the corporate raider has for this most recent conquest. One only hopes that this most recent venture will be more successful than Federal Mogul which likely cost Icahn several years of his life, and not to mention a few hundred million.

 




Ayn Rand Eviscerated in GQ

Ayn Rand Eviscerated in GQ

Postal Stamp Art On Display At National Postal Museum

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

I’ve not read anything by Andrew Corsello before, but his evisceration of Ayn Rand in GQ magazine is a thing of caustic, vicious and snark-filled beauty.

I did my share of battle with the Rand Cult earlier this fall when I interviewed her Ghost to discuss capitalism’s share of blame for the credit crisis.  Corsello never meets her ghost, but speaks to quite a few of her acolytes in his piece.

I’m adding Andrew Corsello to my list of writers to keep up with.

Here’s why:

goddamn, the experience of being 19 years old and reading Ayn Rand! The crystal-shivering-at-the-breaking-pitch intensity of it! Not just for that 19-year-old, but for everybody unfortunate enough to be caught in his psychic blast radius. Is “experience” even the right word for The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged? Ayn Rand’s idolization of Mickey Spillane and cigarettes and capitalism—an experience? Her tentacular contempt for Shakespeare and Beethoven and Karl Marx and facial hair and government and “subnormal” children and the poor and the Baby Jesus and the U.N. and homosexuals and “simpering” social workers and French Impressionism and a thousand other things the flesh is heir to: experience?

Read the rest:

The Bitch is Back (GQ)

Read Also:

Interview With The Ghost Of Ayn Rand (TRB)

 


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Charts, Charts, Charts

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

and then some more. Courtesy of saltwater powerpoint for 8 keyboards.


GS Kickstart

Attachment Size
GS Kickstart.pdf 373.35 KB

 


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A Brilliant Warning On Robert Rubin’s Proposal to Deregulate Banks, circa 1995

A Brilliant Warning On Robert Rubin’s Proposal to Deregulate Banks, circa 1995

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain (posted Oct. 29)

Out all day on university visits with my son, returned to see the miracle GDP recovery number bull the market higher, after Goldman Sachs had cast a pall of gloom the prior day. Le Proprietaire had investments that leaned towards smelling bear trap, and was gratified to see the gains, especially after a day reviewing prospective tuition and fees.

There is little doubt in this mind that the number will be revised lower, and the chain deflator lowball will prove to be transitory, and the recovery will be ephemeral, at least based on real numbers. The Clunkers programs pulled sales forward, which is a useful thing only if there is the follow up of systemic reform. The consumer is flat on their back, and median wages and employment are going nowhere. One can stoke monetary inflation with enough Fed expansion, but without the vitality that bestows permanence and self-sufficiency.

A reader sent in this prescient warning from 1995, when then Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, late of Goldman Sachs, mentor to Larry and Timmy of the current US ship of state, wanted to unleash the power of the big money center banks to ensure their "efficiency and international competitiveness."

If only the US had rejected the Rubin – Greenspan doctrine then, and firmly said no to freewheeling finance, and not succumbed to the hundreds of millions of dollars in lobbying and donations spread about Washington in that 1990′s campaign by Wall Street that culminated in Fed preemptive action, followed by a massive lobbying campaign led by Sandy Weill.  

In December 1996, with the support of Chairman Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve Board issues a precedent-shattering decision permitting bank holding companies to own investment bank affiliates with up to 25 percent of their business in securities underwriting (up from 10 percent).

This expansion of the loophole created by the Fed’s 1987 reinterpretation of Section 20 of Glass-Steagall effectively renders Glass-Steagall obsolete. Virtually any bank holding company wanting to engage in securities business would be able to stay under the 25 percent limit on revenue. However, the law remains on the books, and along with the Bank Holding Company Act, does impose other restrictions on banks, such as prohibiting them from owning insurance-underwriting companies.

In August 1997, the Fed


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Hampton Georgia (Pop. 5,300) Attacked by FDIC, FHA, Fannie and Freddie

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

The FDIC held a big auction this week of properties they own outside of Atlanta Ga. JP King conducted the auction. The FDIC put up 187 properties for sale. The results have not been released yet. I suspect that it might be an interesting story when the numbers do come out. I reviewed some of the available information and came up with some observations.

-Of the 187 properties listed by the FDIC 18 were located in Hampton, Ga. Zip 30228.

-FHA (Federal Housing Administration/HUD) is currently listing 32 properties in zip 30228.

-Freddie Mac has only 2 listings in 30228.

-Fannie Mae has 25 properties for sale in 30228.

-The total number of homes that the government has foreclosed and has for sale in Hampton Ga. is 78.

-The FDIC is auctioning off the following home at 148 Makenna Drive; while at the same time FHA is trying to off-load the same model at 202 Makenna. Note that the FHA notice suggests a Sale Pending at $84,000. I will bet that the auction price for the FDIC is far less than the price FHA got for its house. Therefore the FHA deal is going to crater.

 


-It is fairly clear from this that one part of the government, FDIC, is killing the REO owned by other parts of the government. That is insane. No one appears to be looking at the Federal REO problem and attempting to make sense of it.

-The For Sale signs by the Feds are all over the poor town of Hampton, Ga. What does this do to the people who live there and own homes? For them Uncle Sam is driving down local RE prices. What are those folks going to do when the price of their home drops as a result of the liquidations by the Washington crowd? They are going to default on their mortgages too. We know that the biggest source of default in the current cycle is that borrowers are so far underwater they have no economic incentive to pay. So they don’t.

-Hampton Ga. is a troubled community. It was overbuilt with fast money. What is particularly troubling for me is that FHA has a 40% share of the government owned properties in this community. That is a very big number. At…
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Fannie Mae Seriously Delinquent Rate Hockeysticks to 4.45% From 1.57% In Prior Year

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The FNM “seriously delinquent” rate has gone parabolic, increasing by roughly 5% sequentially and just under 300% YoY. As mere text will simply not do this metric justice, please enjoy this chart of the dataset from Blytic. It tells you all you need to know about the Fed’s containment of the housing problem.

The August seriously delinquent single-family number comprised of a 2.87% non-credit enhanced delinquencies and a very bothersome 11.52%, consisting of credit enhanced loans.

The deterioration of FNM’s book however did not stop it from increasing the size of its book. In September Fannie’s total book of business hit $3.242 trillion, up from $3.229 trillion in August and $3.079 trillion in the prior year.

This trend should bother you, dear taxpayer, because it is your money on the hook here, which is not only massively mismanaged by Bernanke & Co., LLC, but which sees another $80 billion of free funding every month courtesy of the dollar printing press to onboard even more toxic garbage onto your balance sheet.




Radio Zero: Anti-Halloween Week

Courtesy of Marla Singer

The market has been in anti-Halloween mode the last two quarters, cleverly hiding its true nature under a placid costume before exposing its real hockey mask clad self on Halloween weekend.  How perfectly contrarian!

Join us, again, for a contrarian night at Studio Zero, where Radio Zero will bring you all the musicial highlights of our annual Halloween blow out party in real time as it happens.  Early morning (East Coast time) linger for our traditional (invited) anonymous A-List DJ of the night- an exceptional treat with the most gob-smacking hard beats, no tricks (we promise).

Our test broadcast begins, well, now.  Live stuff from yours truly? Think 6:30 – 7:00ish ET.  The heat of the party?  You’ll know it when you hear it. 

Listen here: http://cdo.zerohedge.com:8000/listen.pls

Or pick up our West Coast Mirror (with 1000 slots) here: http://72.13.86.66:8000/listen.pls thanks to the mind-blowing generosity of EGI Hosting.

Chat up the DJ (send your .mp3 files) here: radiozh.

Or… join our IRC server at chat.zerohedge.com #radiozh.  If you just can’t be bothered with an IRC client, we’ve provided one for you here. Otherwise, consider getting mIRC.  You might find it useful in connection with new features Zero Hedge before too long… but if I tell you more about that I will have to buy your puts in size.




Daily Credit Summary: October 30 – Vermicious Knids

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Spreads were broadly wider in the US as all the indices deteriorated (as IG and HY closed at their wides with the former making its largest jump wider since 10/01). IG trades 7.8bps wide (cheap) to its 50d moving average, which is a Z-Score of 1.3s.d.. At 109bps, IG has closed tighter on 63 days so far this year (217 trading days) and we note that the distance to the average is getting close to its largest since this rally began (a critical break over 9-10bps above the average would suggest we are in a new era. Yesterday’s crack of IG not being able to break the 50-day average (while technical nonsense) is notable in that we have not seen an upside break and unsuccessful test of the average since the March rally began in credit.

Indices typically underperformed single-names with skews widening in general but were really just playing catchup from yesterday’s moves as from Wednesday’s close single-names are actually underperforming suggesting some more weakness is due in the indices. The names having the largest impact on IG are Constellation Energy Group Inc. (-22bps) pushing IG 0.17bps tighter, and International Lease Finance Corp. (+39.58bps) adding 0.25bps to IG. HVOL is more sensitive with American International Group, Inc. pushing it 0.42bps tighter, and International Lease Finance Corp. contributing 1.07bps to HVOL’s change today. The less volatile ExHVOL’s move today is driven by both Constellation Energy Group Inc. (-22bps) pushing the index 0.22bps tighter, and Wells Fargo & Company (+11.25bps) adding 0.12bps to ExHVOL.

Selling was broad-based today but we do note the lowest quality names saw the most selling pressure with CCC and below relatively crushed. There was also some notable selling in the crossover space as BBB-/BB+ names underperformed either side. Utilities (Eletric more than others) saw a safety bid today while Leisure (Gaming, Lodging, and Sports/Rec) were all weaker along with Autos and Builders. Capital Goods were mixed but Transports were very weak. Healthcare also saw a bid and was benefiting from the safety trade (particularly Hospitals & Health Services). Interestingly, Airlines saw some buying today also with UAL and AMR both tighter

The price of investment grade credit fell 0.27% to around 99.6% of par, while the price of high yield credits fell 1.315% to around 92.13% of par. ABX market prices are lower by 0.29% of par or in…
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Phil's Favorites

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner  

I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc.  The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in p...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Zero Hedge

Fitch Gives Europe Not So High Five, Downgrades 5 Countries... But Not France

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Festive Friday fun:

  • FITCH TAKES RATING ACTIONS ON SIX EUROZONE SOVEREIGNS
  • ITALY LT IDR CUT TO A- FROM A+ BY FITCH
  • SPAIN ST IDR DOWNGRADED TO F1 FROM F1+ BY FITCH
  • IRELAND L-T IDR AFFIRMED BY FITCH; OUTLOOK NEGATIVE
  • BELGIUM LT IDR CUT TO AA FROM AA+ BY FITCH
  • SLOVENIA LT IDR CUT TO A FROM AA- BY FITCH
  • CYPRUS LT IDR CUT TO BBB- FROM BBB BY FITCH, OUTLOOK NEGATIVE

And some sheer brilliance from Fitch:

  • In Fitch's opinion, the eurozone crisis will on...


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Chart School

ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).

Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...



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Market Montage

Average Age of U.S. Vehicles Hits Record 10.8 Years

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high.  Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...



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Insider Scoop

Research in Motion Surging after Prem Watsa Stake

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.

Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.

Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.

Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.

...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 1/27/2012

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...

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ETF Selector

Wall Street Party Hangover (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday

Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party.  The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.

The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...



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Option Review

Big Prints In Deutsche Bank Put Options

 

Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general! AA Money Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance. Previous week P&L - $400.00 We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium! FAS Money We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope. Previous week P&L - $4372.00...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: QE-cating

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating.  Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)

Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game.  More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline.  In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up.  I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect.  I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...



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