Holiday Shoppers Shun Credit Cards Use Cash; Self-Serving Fed Infomercials

by ilene - November 30th, 2009 3:59 pm

Holiday Shoppers Shun Credit Cards Use Cash; Self-Serving Fed Infomercials

Courtesy of Mish

Inquiring minds note a huge shift in consumer attitudes towards credit cards. Please consider Cash is king for holiday shoppers.

Cash was king for consumers who shopped over the Thanksgiving weekend, according to survey results released on Sunday, and that factor could have cost retailers additional sales.

Only 26 percent of people who shopped over the weekend said they used credit cards for their purchases, according to a poll conducted for Reuters by America’s Research Group.

"That’s an amazing shift in consumers’ habits," said Britt Beemer, founder of America’s Research Group.

A total of 39 percent said they used cash, while the remaining shoppers used debit cards, the survey showed.

Consumers shunning credit cards is a bad sign for retailers, since people who buy gifts with a credit card tend to spend anywhere from 20 to 40 percent more on the gift, Beemer said.

Every Retailer Wants To Be A Discounter

The National Retail Federation has this Black Friday Verdict: Number of Shoppers Up, Average Spending Down.

As the closely-watched Black Friday weekend winds down, a National Retail Federation survey conducted over the weekend confirms the expected: more people spent less. According to NRF’s Black Friday shopping survey, conducted by BIGresearch, 195 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend*, up from 172 million last year. However, the average spending over the weekend dropped to $343.31 per person from $372.57 a year ago. Total spending reached an estimated $41.2 billion.

Shoppers’ destination of choice over the past weekend seemed to be department stores, with nearly half (49.4%) of holiday shoppers visiting at least one, a 12.9 percent increase from last year. Discount retailers took an uncharacteristic back seat, with 43.2 percent of holiday shoppers heading to discount stores over the weekend and another 7.8 percent heading to outlet stores.** Shoppers also visited electronics stores (29.0%), clothing stores (22.9%), and grocery stores (19.6%). As millions of shoppers gear up for Cyber Monday, one-fourth of Americans shopping over the weekend (28.5%) were shopping online.

“In an economy like this one, every retailer wants to be a discounter,” said Tracy Mullin, NRF President and CEO. “Department stores have done an admirable job touting both low prices and good quality, which are important requirements for holiday shoppers on a

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Tags: Ben Bernanke, Cash, Credit Cards, holiday shoppers

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Ben Bernanke Pleads For His Job; My Response to Bernanke

by ilene - November 30th, 2009 3:55 pm

Ben Bernanke Pleads For His Job; My Response to Bernanke

ben bernanke Courtesy of Mish

Ben Bernanke is on yet another self-serving mission to save his job. Please consider The right reform for the Fed an op-ed by Ben Bernanke in the Washington Post.

Here is Bernanke’s entire article (in italics) with my comments interspersed in plain type. Most of my comments are made straight to Ben Bernanke, but they apply in general to all central bankers.

Bernanke: For many Americans, the financial crisis, and the recession it spawned, have been devastating — jobs, homes, savings lost. Understandably, many people are calling for change.

Mish: Ben, the reason people are calling for a change is that you and the Fed wrecked the economy. You did not see a housing bubble, nor did you foresee a recession. I would also like to point out your selective memory loss about your role in bailouts. To refresh your memory, please refer to Bernanke Suffers From Selective Memory Loss; Paulson Calls Bank of America "Turd in the Punchbowl" for details.

Bernanke: Yet change needs to be about creating a system that works better, not just differently. As a nation, our challenge is to design a system of financial oversight that will embody the lessons of the past two years and provide a robust framework for preventing future crises and the economic damage they cause.

Mish: No Ben, we need a system that works differently. You have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that you and the Fed are incompetent and cannot be trusted.

Ben here is a compilation of your own statements made from 2005-2007 proving you have no idea what you are talking about.

Bernanke: These matters are complex, and Congress is still in the midst of considering how best to reform financial regulation. I am concerned, however, that a number of the legislative proposals being circulated would significantly reduce the capacity of the Federal Reserve to perform its core functions.

Mish: Hello Ben, exactly what is that core function? Is it a dual mandate of price stability and full employment by any chance? Pray tell exactly how badly did you blow that? Did you succeed at either? Is it mission impossible in the first place?

Bernanke: Notably, some leading proposals in the Senate would strip the

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Tags: Bernanke, Financial Crisis, The right reform for the Fed

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Dear God, please confirm what I already believe

by ilene - November 30th, 2009 3:34 pm

None of this is a bit surprising, but in case you thought otherwise, the part of your brain you use to infer what God thinks is the same part of your brain you use to figure out what you think. – Ilene

Dear God, please confirm what I already believe

God Rocks' in graffiti on the side of a truck

By Andy Coghlan, New Scientist

God may have created man in his image, but it seems we return the favour. Believers subconsciously endow God with their own beliefs on controversial issues.

"Intuiting God’s beliefs on important issues may not produce an independent guide, but may instead serve as an echo chamber to validate and justify one’s own beliefs," writes a team led by Nicholas Epley of the University of Chicago in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences…

"People may use religious agents as a moral compass, forming impressions and making decisions based on what they presume God as the ultimate moral authority would believe or want," the team write. "The central feature of a compass, however, is that it points north no matter what direction a person is facing. This research suggests that, unlike an actual compass, inferences about God’s beliefs may instead point people further in whatever direction they are already facing."

Full article here.

Tags: God, inferences about God, moral compass, Nicholas Epley, religion

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Black Friday activity in heat map graphical form

by ilene - November 30th, 2009 3:16 pm

Black Friday activity in heat map graphical form

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

If you want to get a leading indicator of how retailers are doing, going online is definitely the best way to get up-to-the-minute data. Not only is the data coming out of online retailers much more real-time, there has also been a huge shift to the online retail channel. For instance, Amazon has knocked the ball out of the park. Its shares hit an all-time high today. This is not a U.S.-only phenomenon; shoppers in the UK are getting online for the Holiday season as well.

That’s why I think the heat map from eBay below is so cool. It shows in all of the sales activity on Black Friday by colour – that’s 1 million transactions in total. The areas in yellow are where the transaction volume was lowest relative to last year. Red areas are hot’ that’s where the action was – and where volumes increased.

Tags: Black Friday activity heat map

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Dick Bove's "Unique Research Product" No Longer To Be Used As Bathroom Reading Following Crack Down On Illicit Distribution

by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2009 2:29 pm

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Apparently someone in the world cares about Dick Bove’s prophetic effluvium. Either that, or the worst contraindicator in the stock market (buy Lehman, ‘nuf said) believes that nowadays, (following in the footsteps of other financial pundits), it is much better to be famous for being famous, than for being right, or in Dick Bove’s case, wrong. Either way, for those who actually seem to derive stock trading advice out of intellectual titans like Bove et al, your lives are above to get much more difficult, as Bove is about to go RIAA on your ass. Whatever happened to Bove’s threat that he would be providing instanalysis much less (and many hoped, not at all) after his disastrous read of Wells results earlier got him in hot water following a CNBC appearance. For an even playing field, it only makes sense that Dick Bove no longer publishes or “analyzes” anything anymore, period.

Dow Jones reports “Research by prolific banking analyst Dick Bove won’t be as widely available for at least the rest of the year and possibly longer, as his employer aims to preserve its value. ” More on this loss of “value” to mankind:

Selected reports will be available to the media on a case-by-case basis. But the full research reports will no longer be readily available to reporters and other non-clients, Bove said Monday.

“The information is getting to [people] who are not paying,” Bove, of Rochdale Securities, told Dow Jones Newswires by phone Monday. “It’s weakening our whole approach to how we want to price the product.”

Broad distribution is being ended for at least the rest of 2009 and is under review for afterward, so that “paying customers will recognize they are getting a unique product,” Bove said.

Very unique indeed. Which is why the man seems to send out a constant stream of tweets on an almost daily basis.

We fell sad for not only CNBC viewers who no longer see Mr. Bove’s bullish expression on TV (we obviously meant that he tends to be bullish, not that he looks like a bull), but for Mr. Bove’s throng of almost 330 followers on Tweeter who will likely also be denied any pearls of financial wisdom going forward. Presumably these are…

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Dick Bove’s “Unique Research Product” No Longer To Be Used As Bathroom Reading Following Crack Down On Illicit Distribution

by ilene - November 30th, 2009 2:29 pm

Dick Bove’s "Unique Research Product" No Longer To Be Used As Bathroom Reading Following Crack Down On Illicit Distribution

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Apparently someone in the world cares about Dick Bove’s prophetic effluvium. Either that, or the worst contraindicator in the stock market (buy Lehman, ‘nuf said) believes that nowadays, (following in the footsteps of other financial pundits), it is much better to be famous for being famous, than for being right, or in Dick Bove’s case, wrong. Either way, for those who actually seem to derive stock trading advice out of intellectual titans like Bove et al, your lives are above to get much more difficult, as Bove is about to go RIAA on your ass. Whatever happened to Bove’s threat that he would be providing instanalysis much less (and many hoped, not at all) after his disastrous read of Wells results earlier got him in hot water following a CNBC appearance. For an even playing field, it only makes sense that Dick Bove no longer publishes or "analyzes" anything anymore, period.

Dow Jones reports "Research by prolific banking analyst Dick Bove won’t be as widely available for at least the rest of the year and possibly longer, as his employer aims to preserve its value. " More on this loss of "value" to mankind:

Selected reports will be available to the media on a case-by-case basis. But the full research reports will no longer be readily available to reporters and other non-clients, Bove said Monday.

"The information is getting to [people] who are not paying," Bove, of Rochdale Securities, told Dow Jones Newswires by phone Monday. "It’s weakening our whole approach to how we want to price the product."

Broad distribution is being ended for at least the rest of 2009 and is under review for afterward, so that "paying customers will recognize they are getting a unique product," Bove said.

Very unique indeed. Which is why the man seems to send out a constant stream of tweets on an almost daily basis.

We fell sad for not only CNBC viewers who no longer see Mr. Bove’s bullish expression on TV (we obviously meant that he tends to be bullish, not that he looks like a bull), but for Mr. Bove’s throng of almost 330 followers on Tweeter who will likely also be denied any pearls of financial…

Tags: Bove, Zero Hedge

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Signs of the Sensitivity of the Iranian Powderkeg

by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2009 2:27 pm

Courtesy of Marla Singer

It doesn’t take much to panic markets when it comes to Iran. Case in point: Crude futures just about 45 minutes ago:

13:39 ET: 5 UK Nationals Held In Iran After Yacht Seized In Gulf (Dow Jones) (YOWSERS!)

13:55 ET: UPDATE Five U.K. nationals are being held in Iran after the Iranian navy seized their yacht, which may have strayed into Iranian waters in the Gulf en route from Bahrain to Dubai, the Foreign Office said Monday. The incident happened Nov. 25, when “a racing yacht owned by Sail Bahrain and crewed by five British nationals, was stopped by Iranian naval vessels,” the office said in a statement. (Dow Jones) (Oh.)

Can you imagine what this will look like if anyone actually shoots at something over there?

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Is Gold The New DXY Levered Intraday Speculative Bet?

by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2009 1:55 pm

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

With the recent development of stocks no longer following every tick of the DXY, it appears the algos have been now reprogrammed to speculate much more aggressively in gold. As Zero Hedge first speculated over a month ago, the Fed’s excess liquidity is no longer making its way into the broken stock market, and instead is reorienting toward smaller speculative markets such as gold. As the chart attached demonstrates, the inverse correlation from any dollar weakness is magnified in gold, while stocks continue drifting aimlessly. Then again this is merely an intraday observation. Look for the algos to be tweaked promptly as traditional correlations seek to get reestablished.

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$/Euro at 4PM

by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2009 1:43 pm

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

A lot of currency positions were liquidated prior to the Holiday. More got shaken out with the Dubai story. So now it is 1:40.

If someone wants to re-establish a big position, this would be a nice time to do it. If the Euro makes a break for 1.51 in the next few hours we will be back to the races.

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The Truth! The Truth? Bankers Can't Handle the Truth!!!

by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2009 1:27 pm

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

I have finally updated my Alt-A and Subprime delinquency, charge-off and loss data using FDIC, NY Fed, Corelogic, First American, and Bloomberg (among others) as sources. If you thought things looked bad last year or this spring, they are getting worse – with no reprieve for the 3rd quarter despite the extreme amounts of liquidity and capital thrown at the situation by central bankers and the US government. As soon as I started writing this piece, CNBC comes out with “US to Push Mortgage Lenders To Modify More Home Loans: The US Treasury announced plans to push lenders to modify more loans after the administration’s $75 billion housing rescue plan, called Making Home Affordable, fell short and foreclosures continued rising.“

Hmmm… $75 billion is a lot of money. Mayhap the problem is that the banks know how useless pushing on a string is, or mayhap $75 billion is not enough to stem $304 billion (and counting) in Alt A and subprime losses that are still in the pipeline (see graphic below).

It gets worse though. Let’s glance at the non-conforming loan losses that have already occurred in comparison to the SCAP projections that justified the return of TARP in many cases. Recovery rates had the illusion of increasing ever so slightly due to an increase in prices as illustrated by the Case Shiller index. I have expressed my doubts about this housing price recovery for several reasons, the least of which is the construction flaws in the index itself which fail to capture the nature of the transient price increases, namely the activity of short term investors and flippers (see On the Latest Housing Numbers). There are some areas that have witnessed some firming of pricing though, but that firmness is the result of the Fed and Treasury trying to blow another bubble within a bursting bubble and is more than outdone by the rampant deterioration in credit quality of loans that result in the dumping of foreclosures -> REOs -> short investor turnaround sales/flips (via investors, which are not captured by Case Shiller, hence the illusion of a firming market in the lower end of housing prices) all over the place.

Subprime delinquency, charge-off and foreclosure rates are still flying through the…

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