A Detailed Technical Update of the S&P cash, S&P futures, DJIA cash, Gold futures, the VIX and the US Dollar Index … as well as a look into the “Crown Jewel” of Dubai
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2009 8:50 am
Courtesy of Fibozachi
Technical Update: S&P cash, S&P futures, DJIA cash, Gold futures, the VIX and the US Dollar Index
The ES (S&P 500 futures, current basis December, ESZ09) has four resistance levels at previous support on the daily (marked above by white horizontal lines) and recently gapped from above the upper FIB to below the lower FIB click on any chart to see a larger in crystal clear detail). Until the 11/06/09 closing level of 1066.25 is decisively broken, this weakening uptrend of narrowing breadth and its multi-week topping process will continue. For Fox-like anal-ytic balance for the bulls, short-term upside targets would be 1121 (the 50% retracement of Primary wave 1 (circle)) and 1127 (where the downward sloping monthly 34 EMA currently lays).
When charted on the weekly with semi-log scaling, the ES has met ‘key trendline’ resistance that connects the October 2007 all-time high with the May 2008 high (Intermediate wave (2) of Primary wave 1 (circle). The S&P 500 has reached a multiple confluence of inflection points, not only in terms of price but also in terms of both time and sentiment.
Since the March lows (and especially since April) several technicians have pointed toward DJIA price targets of either 10K (round number) or 10,356, which is the 50% price retracement of the entirety of Primary wave 1 (circle). And in terms of a time retracement, many of those same technicians have steadfastly pointed toward Nov. 17th, 18th (trading days) & 23rd (calendar days) as possible terminal inflection points for this strong upward correction, which, in the parlance of Elliott Wave is termed “Primary wave 2 (circle).”
Since the Bullish Marubozu weekly candle that closed 7/17/09, 10470 became the updated price target, as measured from the 7/10/09 closing low of 8146.52. As an aside, March 6th itself provided several clues that the 17-month downtrend was abating (after a Bull Harami candlestick pattern plotted on the $INDU alongside a High Wave on the $INX). The real star of 3/6/09 was the $BKX (KBW Bank Index); where a Doji candle plotted on the hourly , closed 15:00, while the next hourly bar (closed 16:00) plotted a…
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DiggTechnical Update: S&P cash, S&P futures, DJIA cash, Gold futures, the VIX and the US Dollar Index
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2009 8:50 am
Courtesy of Fibozachi
Technical Update: S&P cash, S&P futures, DJIA cash, Gold futures, the VIX and the US Dollar Index
The ES (S&P 500 futures, current basis December, ESZ09) has four resistance levels at previous support on the daily (marked above by white horizontal lines) and recently gapped from above the upper FIB to below the lower FIB click on any chart to see a larger in crystal clear detail). Until the 11/06/09 closing level of 1066.25 is decisively broken, this weakening uptrend of narrowing breadth and its multi-week topping process will continue. For Fox-like anal-ytic balance for the bulls, short-term upside targets would be 1121 (the 50% retracement of Primary wave 1 (circle)) and 1127 (where the downward sloping monthly 34 EMA currently lays).
When charted on the weekly with semi-log scaling, the ES has met ‘key trendline’ resistance that connects the October 2007 all-time high with the May 2008 high (Intermediate wave (2) of Primary wave 1 (circle). The S&P 500 has reached a multiple confluence of inflection points, not only in terms of price but also in terms of both time and sentiment.
Since the March lows (and especially since April) several technicians have pointed toward DJIA price targets of either 10K (round number) or 10,356, which is the 50% price retracement of the entirety of Primary wave 1 (circle). And in terms of a time retracement, many of those same technicians have steadfastly pointed toward Nov. 17th, 18th (trading days) & 23rd (calendar days) as possible terminal inflection points for this strong upward correction, which, in the parlance of Elliott Wave is termed “Primary wave 2 (circle).”
Since the Bullish Marubozu weekly candle that closed 7/17/09, 10470 became the updated price target, as measured from the 7/10/09 closing low of 8146.52. As an aside, March 6th itself provided several clues that the 17-month downtrend was abating (after a Bull Harami candlestick pattern plotted on the $INDU alongside a High Wave on the $INX). The real star of 3/6/09 was the $BKX (KBW Bank Index); where a Doji candle plotted on the hourly , closed 15:00, while the next hourly bar (closed 16:00) plotted a…
Swing trading virtual portfolio – Week of November 30th, 2009
by Optrader - November 30th, 2009 8:37 am
This post is for live trades and daily comments.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here
- Optrader
The Oxen Report: Dubai Looks to Weigh on Open But Can Holiday Buzz Take Us Higher?
by David Ristau - November 30th, 2009 8:32 am
I feel a slight buzz in the air about the holidays lurking right now. The malls were busy to start the holiday shopping season and sales are up from one year ago. On recap, last week was definitely a tough week due to my illness, but I am back with full powers this week. Friday, we had one great pick and one horrible pick. On QLTI, we lost 3%. The stock did pretty much the exact opposite of what I expected and ended up, even with a almost 2% down day. We did, however, have good success with Fifth Third Bancorp’s short sale. We got in at 9.80, and we were able to sell it at 9.61 for a solid 2% gain right before the close of the day.
1/2 not too bad for having the flu. Let’s get into a 2/2 day.
Buy Pick of the Day: Aeropostale Inc. (ARO)
Analysis:
Retailers got some good news this morning on a number of fronts that I believe should help the market challenge the overhand on the Dubai market issues we saw Friday. ShopperTrak, which is a research firm on retail, said that they saw the after Thanksgiving season up 0.5% in sale totals from one year ago, according to initial data. The total was $10.66 billion. Online sales were up 11% from one year ago. Even with the encouraging news, the National Retail Federation is still expecting a 1% decline from one year ago in total sales.
Not all analysts were excited, as John Long from Kurt Salmon Associates commented, "Forget Black Friday for bricks and Cyber Monday for clicks — this year it’s all about making it easy for customers to satisfy their shopping fix … we’re still seeing cautious spending. The pie isn’t increasing whether you decide to buy in the stores or online."
Yet, some analysts this morning, including myself, are excited about these stocks. American Eagle received an upgrade from Lazard Capital Markets, and Abercrombie received an upgrade from FBR Capital. These two upgrades have helped to lift these stocks in the morning. Further, in after hours, we are getting an earnings report from Guess?. I think all of this is reason for retail to look towards a positive day, and it could even be the market leader.
Aeropostale is my pick of the day because it has gone under the radar and is undervalued, but…
Daily Highlights: 11.30.09
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2009 8:17 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
- Asian stocks, currencies rise on optimism Dubai World losses won’t spread.
- Bernanke says legislation limiting Fed independence Would ‘impair’ economy.
- China’s stocks rose after government pledged to maintain stimulus policies next year.
- India’s GDP accelerates to 7.9%, may spur stimulus withdrawal.
- Japan’s Fuji denies ruling out intervention in foreign exchange markets.
- Stocks in Dubai fall the most in a year on concern Dubai World may default.
- Thanksgiving Sales attract more shoppers, less average spending: Natl Retail Asso.
- Two-Year Treasuries extend rally fifth week on view Fed rates stay on hold.
- UAE. Central Bank says it ‘stands behind’ lenders, offers loan facility.
- UK House Prices rose 0.2% in November as home supply shortage persists.
- American Capital entered into agreement with lenders holding 95% of its credit line to support a plan to avert bankruptcy.
- Coal glut rocks mining companies, output cuts likely as reduced utility, factory demand weighs on prices.
- Geely reaches deal with Ford on IPR in its bid for it’s Volvo unit.
- GM’s Saab has received serious expressions of interest from potential buyers.
- ING priced its $11.2B rights issue at a hefty discount, proceeds to repay half the state aid.
- Sands China shares drop on Hong Kong trading debut after $2.5B IPO.
- ShopperTrak: Black Friday Retail Sales Up 0.5% Vs. 2008
- Sina Corp. said 3 invt firms are joining its management to invest $180M into the firm.
- Sweden unlikely to relax loan rules to finance Saab rescue, Official says.
Economic Calendar: Data on Chicago PMI to be released.
Earnings Calendar: ALOY, NRGP, OVTI, TLVT, UNFY.
Companies to watch: Alloy, Inergy Holdings, Omnivision Technologies, Telvent, Unify Corporation.
Recent Egan-Jones Rating Actions
ARCH COAL INC (ACI)
ORBITAL SCIENCES CORP (ORB)
ROCKWELL COLLINS INC (COL)
BARNES & NOBLE INC (BKS)
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP (CHK)
CLEARWIRE CORP (CLWR)
HJ HEINZ CO (HNZ)
FMC CORP (FMC)
WENDY’S/ARBY’S GROUP INC (WEN)
TYSON FOODS INC (TSN)
HORMEL FOODS CORP (HRL)
NCR CORP (NCR)
ANIXTER INTERNATIONAL INC (AXE)
Data provided by Egan-Jones Ratings and Analytics
Monday – Mixed Market Signals Ahead of Data
by Phil - November 30th, 2009 7:16 am
Welcome back!
I hope everyone had a fine holiday weekend. Friday was uneventful for us and we went into the weekend still 55% bearish, expecting the usual pre-market shenanigans into Monday’s open. We did a full cover on our bearish DIA puts at 9:55 am and did very well on that play so we felt good about flipping back to slightly bearish into the close, which seemed a bit pumped-up to us anyway. As you can see from Corey’s chart, it was the weak Nasdaq performance that kept us cautious, as it just doesn’t seem likely that we’re going to get a strong reversal off that dip.
This is going to be a heavy data week with only Chicago PMI this morning but the intensity level quickly notches up as we start December (already!) with Construction Spending, ISM, Pending Home Sales and Auto Sales tomorrow. Wednesday we get the Challenger Job Cuts Report, ADP’s Employment Report, Oil Inventories and the always fun Fed Beige Book. Thursday we’ll see the usual Jobless Claims, Revised Productivity for Q3, the Employment Cost Index and ISM Services and we finish on Friday with Nonfarm Payrolls and Factory Orders.
Also during the week we’ll get everyone’s opinion on the retail sales numbers but the NRF Report yesterday seemed to nail it showing that more people (195M) went shopping than last year (172M) but they spent an average of just $343, down from $373 (8%) last year. "Shoppers proved this weekend that they were willing to open their wallets for a bargain," NRF says, noting the surge in numbers was likely due to cash-strapped shoppers visiting stores early to get the best deals. You will also hear today that Comscore shows 11% more online shopping than last year with $595M spent on Black Friday, while this $60M bump may sound very impressive – try to keep in mind that 195M people spending $343 in the stores on Friday is $66.9Bn or 66 THOUSAND Million. On-line shopping is not going to save Christmas if the live purchases aren’t there….
Despite the demand for shopping dollars, the dollar stopped going up and has been jammed back down to $1.505 to the Euro and $1.65 to the Pound and went as low at 86 Yen again this morning. That didn’t stop the Nikkei from jumping back up 3%, the 9,435 as word spread through Asia that the UAE once again stands ready to bail out Dubai. China popped up 600…
RANsquawk 30th November Morning Briefing – Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2009 5:47 am
Courtesy of RANSquawk Video
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Good morning, worker drones: This Week In Mayhem
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2009 4:47 am
Courtesy of Project Mayhem
Good morning, worker drones: This Week In Mayhem
by Project Mayhem
Global warming scam exposed as scientific fraud; Copenhagen summit approaches, Abu Dubai goes bust; financing problems spread to governments, Washington insists on Columbia “full spectrum” base, new H1N1 bypasses adaptive immunity and is Tamiflu-resistant, US mint suspends sales of Eagles.
LAST WEEK IN MAYHEM
1) Global warming scam exposed as scientific fraud; Copenhagen summit approaches, banks and governments wring hands in glee at prospect of global carbon taxes.
Well well well. In case you’ve been living under a rock or else, like me, drinking all Thanksgiving weekend, you might be aware of the leaked emails and source code — which pretty much show what a corrupt farce UN-funded ‘climate science’ science has become. UN scientists are on-record conspiring to delete data under FOIA request, to deliberately hide the decline in global temperatures, and so forth, which basically means they were working together to commit crimes. Furthermore, they now admit they deleted temperature records — but these same scientists now assure the public they will “reconstruct” them for us. Forgive my skepticism, but, hahahahah! Regardless, so these idiot scientists and their well-funded banker policy backers are more or less stalling for time (*cough Copenhagen cough*) , which starts December 6th, while the MSM is pretty much silent. Unfortunately Copenhagen carbon-tax treaty is a done deal — despite the scandal which has been censored from the major networks! Oh well… Just another day in the matrix !
Global warming exposed as UN-funded fraud
Russian computer hackers have published emails and source code from the UN-affiliated Climate Research Unit showing profound corruption, fraud, and criminal activity. What’s really behind the Copenhagen treaty?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/global-warming-exposed-un-funded-fraud
Bonus Round: Unhinged Begley loses his marbles on the air, hillarity ensues.
And who says global warming isn’t a religion!
2) Abu Dubai goes bust; financing problems spread to governments
downtown Dubai
There are several things worth pointing out. First, the idea that somehow governments will be immune to this debt crisis should be dead. We have seen Iceland go bust, we have seen Eastern Europe go bust, and now we see Dubai go bust. The financing trouble will spread — it will continue to spread at the pace deemed suitable by those behind the…
Global Trade Indicating V-Recovery?
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2009 12:25 am
Courtesy of Leo Kolivakis
Submitted by Leo Kolivakis, publisher of Pension Pulse.
Jonathan Lynn of Thompson Reuters reports that global trade volumes rise sharply in third quarter:
World trade volumes grew sharply in the third quarter of this year, data from the Dutch CPB research institute showed on Friday, in a further sign that the global economy is pulling out of crisis.
CPB said trade volumes in the third quarter were 4.3 percent higher than in the second — the second biggest quarter-on-quarter increase since it started tracking trade flows in 1991, and contrasting with a record 12.3 percent drop in the three months ended February.
The turning point appears to have been this summer, when trade in the three months ended July turned positive on a quarter-on-quarter basis for the first time since May last year, the institute said in its latest World Trade Monitor.
Looking at volatile monthly figures, trade in September grew by a record 5.3 percent after falling 1.5 percent in August, reflecting higher exports and imports in all regions, said the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and Analysis, whose data are used by the European Commission and World Bank.
But the long-term trend remains negative, with average volumes in the 12 months ended August showing a record 14.4 percent drop compared with the previous 12 months.
The World Trade Organisation has forecast that trade will contract by more than 10 percent this year — the biggest drop since the Great Depression.
The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and Analysis publishes its World Trade Monitor every month. You can read it by clicking here.
Yanick Desnoyers, Assistant Chief Economist at the National Bank of Canada wrote a Hot Chart, Global Trade Flows Surge in September that was used in the New$ to (Us)e blog:
A key concern in recent months has been that the run-up in markets and commodities was speculative in nature. Fortunately, it is accompanied by a strong resumption in global trade flows. According to data just released by the CPB Bureau of Economic Policy, global volume trade surged 5.3% in September, the biggest increase on record. Interestingly, the resumption in global trade flows was widespread across regions covered by
…
What Happens to Citibank’s $8 Billion Loan to Dubai?
by Zero Hedge - November 29th, 2009 11:49 pm
Courtesy of George Washington
On Friday, I provided some specifics about who had loaned Dubai money, and the potential fallout from Dubai’s debt crisis.
But I just found another interesting tidbit.
Specifically, 7 Days – one of the largest papers in Dubai – wrote in March:
The US public will be “outraged” by Citibank’s $8 billion loan to Dubai just six weeks after the bank was bailed out, US House of Representatives domestic policy subcommittee chair-man has said. Dennis Kucinich commented on the Dubai loan and other US banking investments as a congressional panel released a report that strongly questioned Citibank’s actions. The report, shown to 7DAYS, cites the Dubai loan as the largest of the “questionable transactions” by banks after the US government bailed them out. It notes that the loan to Dubai’s public sector came on December 14, just six weeks after the US government gave Citibank a $25 billion bail-out.
The report quotes Win Bischoof, then chairman of Citi, as saying the bank agreed to the Dubai loan because “we continue to place the Gulf region among our globally most significant markets”. The report also questions JP Morgan’s $1 billion investment in India and Bank of America’s $7 billion investment in China. “When the American people find that their tax dollars, which were supposed to be used to get us out of this financial crisis, are instead being used to ship jobs and investments overseas, there will be outrage,” Kucinich said. The report notes the loans were not illegal and that it is not known if they were directly funded by bail-out funds. A Citibank official was quoted at the time as saying the $8 billion came from the bank’s own funds and third party sources. The report was released as the committee prepares to question banking chiefs about their use of bail-out funds.
Will Citi be repaid in full on its $8 Billion loan, which apparently came out taxpayer bailout money?
Big hat tip to the anon who has posted this info all over.
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