Archive for
December, 2009
by ilene - December 30th, 2009 7:00 pm
Very interesting discussion on high frequency trading. – Ilene
Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain
I am a ‘fan’ of very few people in the money business. One of my favorite pundits is a frequent guest on Bloomberg Television, which I tend to watch off and on during the day on my computer screen: Joe Saluzzi. Another person for whom I always turn up the volume is Howard Davidowitz, the savvy and no-nonsense retail analyst.
Here is Joe Saluzzi’s excellent explanation for the ‘odd’ market behaviour which many traders have noted to me in the past few weeks.
But it was not until today that it ‘clicked’ in my mind that this is setting up like the market crash of 1987, for purely technical reasons. The volumes are so hugely dominated by ‘high frequency systems trading’ that if and when a dislocation occurs, and it may only take something trivial to set it off when the time comes, the market will gain a momentum to the downside that the government may not view so favorably and dismissively.
And in response to such a meltdown, one of the first things the Poseur-in-Chief might consider doing is replacing the current head of the SEC, Mary Schapiro, who has managed to become almost as useless as Christopher Cox, the SEC head under Bush. Granted, the SEC is an awful place to work, hob-nobbing with the wealthy while every swinging Congressman cuts your funding when not making personal calls to protect their campaign contributors. But really, the people of the US deserve much better from their government than franchised looting and organized mispricing of risk. It really is becoming that blatant.
Tags: 'high frequency systems trading', 'odd' market behaviour, Howard Davidowitz, Joe Saluzzi, market crash of 1987
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by ilene - December 30th, 2009 6:52 pm
Courtesy of Mish
Price of steel is going up. Is that a good thing? For who? Please consider U.S. Trade Panel Rules for Domestic Steelmakers Against Chinese Imports.
The U.S. International Trade Commission sided with U.S. steelmakers in a case over Chinese steel Wednesday, voting that U.S. industry has been damaged by a flood of imports of subsidized steel from China.
In the ITC’s largest-ever steel case, all six commissioners voted in the affirmative that imports of so-called oil country tubular goods from China have injured U.S. manufacturers. The commission will provide details of its decision later Wednesday.
The ruling, which will likely result in duties on future imports of Chinese steel pipes, adds more tension to the U.S.-China trade relationship. Ties between Washington and Beijing are already frayed by the Obama administration’s imposition of duties on Chinese tire imports and China’s criticism of U.S. moves as protectionist.
Last month, the Commerce Department imposed countervailing duties on the steel pipes ranging from 10.4% to 15.8%. The ITC’s decision Wednesday allows the government to finalize those duties. The commission will make a separate decision on antidumping duties next spring.
In the case, brought by U.S. steel manufacturers and the United Steelworkers union, the domestic industry has framed its case in terms of potential job losses — thousands of steel workers have been laid off or had their mills closed. In China, job losses have been few, as Chinese mills continue to operate despite weakened world demand.
The case was filed by Maverick Tube Corp.; United States Steel Corp.; TMK IPSCO; V&M Star LP; Wheatland Tube Corp.; Evraz Rocky Mountain Steel; and the United Steel, Paper and Forestry, Rubber, Manufacturing, Energy, Allied Industrial and Service Workers International Union.
Steel Grating Tariffs
It’s not just steel pipe under review. Please consider US imposes duties on China steel grating.
The US Commerce Department said on Tuesday that it has set preliminary anti-dumping duties (AD) on imports of steel grating from China, a move that might escalate trade disputes between the two countries.
The department said it "preliminarily determined that Chinese producers/exporters have sold steel grating in the United States at 14.36 to 145.18 percent less than normal value."
As a result of this preliminary determination, Commerce will instruct US Customs and Border Protection
…
Tags: CHINA, protectionism, Steel, tariffs
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by ilene - December 30th, 2009 4:47 pm
Jesse’s thoughts on secrets to successful trading. (And if you missed my interview with my favorite restauranteur, it’s here.) – Ilene
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Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain
"A reporter once asked me what were my most important attributes as a speculator. I replied, ‘Nerve…it takes nerve to speculate in futures…and being stubborn, refusing to be satisfied with small profits. But it does not matter if they are paper profits when you lose them..when you lose you sweat blood. Confidence in yourself is something you must have if you are going to be a successful speculator.
To be able to stick in a risky position without shattering your nerves, you must have a continuing confidence in the judgment that caused you to take that position in the first place.’ I knew that I would never get rich by scalping the markets for small swings, so I was constantly striving to sense the broad swings of the markets and to understand the reasons for them.
The way to make money is to be slow in taking profits. Let your profits pile up as high as they would go. This is the way to reduce the odds against you — by consistently holding on when a market is running favorably for you.
My main strength was in my ability to take a position and stick with it.
I was never an in-and-out trader. (A friend said, ‘He got in at the beginning of a long bull market, and he stuck, and stuck, and stuck.’) I have overstayed markets at times, but this is not, for me, really a failing. Because most of my success has been due to my hanging on while my profits mounted. There is the big secret. Do with it what you will."
Arthur W. Cutten, the commodities trader from the 1920′s.
Of course all great traders will tell you the same thing essentially. Find your bull market and then hang on to it, never losing your positions completely. If you have a mind to it you can buy weakness and sell some on strength to improve your cost basis and for tax purposes, but only if you hold the position while the bull market is intact.
Jesse Livermore said the same thing. "The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they…
Tags: Arthur W. Cutten, Jesse Livermore, Jim Sinclair, secret to success, Stock Market, successful trading, trading
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by Zero Hedge - December 30th, 2009 4:46 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
From WaPo
The federal government said Wednesday it will take majority control of the troubled auto lender GMAC, providing another $3.8 billion in aid to the company, which has been unable to raise from private investors the money it needs to staunch its losses.
GMAC, which already has taken $12.5 billion in direct federal aid along with other forms of government support, is the largest lender to General Motors and Chrysler dealerships and to their auto-buying customers.
Prepare for “no cash until 2099″ offers at a GM dealer near you. Free rear spoiler stickers of Marx, Engels and Lenin included with every purchase of a CTS-V.
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by ilene - December 30th, 2009 4:23 pm
Missed this the first time around…
Courtesy of The Reformed Broker, Joshua M Brown
this post originally appeared on November 20th 2009
Every passing year gives rise to any number of mind-bogglingly annoying terms and phrases. 2009 was no exception.
I submit the following terms as ready-for-obsolescence as the year draws to a close, let’s leave these behind as we head into 2010:
Shovel-Ready
Let me help you out with this: there is no such thing as a shovel-ready project. Nowhere in the nation can one break ground on anything without a minimum of 3 to 6 months worth of angry town hall meetings, eminent domain battles and political posturing. This is why federal money is still brimming in the states’ coffers rather than being spent on stimulus to this day.
Too Big To Fail
If I hear this term again, I’m gonna experiment with how far down my throat I can jam a pair of newly-sharpened gardening shears. Big things fail all the time, just look at Kirstie Alley‘s comeback attempt.
There’s An App For That
In my day (1998 to be precise, a year that I absolutely OWNED) "apps" were short for appetizers. Neighborhood bars could always class up the joint by adding an apps menu of potato skins, mozzarella sticks and chicken fingers. The whole app-phone thing is cool, but the incessant discussion of the fact that your phone can now pinpoint the exact location of any girl you dated back in college is pointless and annoying in the extreme. Nobody cares about your phone or what it can do, you didn’t invent it, you merely selected the wallpaper.
The Fed’s Printing Press
Not since Gutenberg invented his book machine has so much attention been lavished on any one printing press. The notion that the Federal Reserve is "running the printing presses night and day" has become so oft-repeated that non-business people now actually believe that Geithner is stained with actual green ink.
Going Rogue
Neither Sarah Palin or any of the journalists that play into her nonsense truly know the meaning of the word "Rogue". Should either the walking curiosity we call Ms Palin or her equally absurd media tormentors ever truly encounter a real "rogue" of any sort, they would promptly be in…
Tags: Terms and Phrases We Should Bury With 2009
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by Option Review - December 30th, 2009 4:12 pm
Today’s tickers: OSIS, SEED, AMZN, KONG & TER
OSIS – OSI Systems Inc. – Investors were keen to put a name on the company that might benefit from a boost to security spending, which is behind the 12.5% rally in shares of OSI Systems today to $28.22. The previous 52-week high stood at $25.64 in the California-based company that makes critical electronic gadgetry to include complex security and inspection systems. The fallout from the Christmas Day arrest of a young Nigerian who apparently attempted to set off an explosive device on a Detroit-bound airplane is fast trickling through to who might win orders from the office of homeland security. Option volume in OSI Systems is a rare thing as indicated by the scant vale of open interest at 4,341 lots. Call option buyers at the January expiration saw to it that the company remains on investors’ radar after they likely doubled the prevailing number of option positions on Wednesday. Some 4,700 calls at the $30 strike were bought starting at 25 cents per contract and rising to as much as $1.00 each as the shares rose in value. The delta reading of 33% implies a one-in-three chance that the share price will rise by a further 6.3% within the next 18 days.
SEED – Origin Agritech – There was a wave of call option activity at Origin Agritech following the technology-focused seed development company’s announcement that it had bought back the remainder of its outstanding notes. The move will probably strengthen its balance sheet and helped spur its share price 25% higher to $12.15. Last month the stock rose to about $15 after the Chinese government said it would work with the company to grow modified corn and rice. Heaviest call volume was seen at the January $12.5 strike where 4,400 lots have traded from Tuesday’s close of 10 cents to 90 cents. The $15 strike calls have traded 1,600 times at an unchanged 30 cents. Option implied volatility spiked from 80% to 103% as uncertainty grew as investors demanded higher premiums to sell options. At the January 10 strike investors appeared swift to sell more than 4,000 put options as low as 40 cents, down from Tuesday’s closing price of $1.10 in the expectation that Origin will remain firm.
AMZN – Amazon Inc. – One investor appeared to take out some protection against a possible decline in shares of…
Tags: AMZN, KONG, OSIS, SEED, TER
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by Zero Hedge - December 30th, 2009 3:39 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge has been a little quiet on the topic of HFT lately, not because we have come to peace with the threat that HFT presents to equity markets (we have not), and if HFT lobbyists are successful, CDS is next, or because we have realized that no matter what, Mary Schapiro will never, ever do the right thing and take a preemptive action instead of always doing damage control after the fact, until such time as the broader population finally realizes just how worthless the organization of the ex-Finra multi-millionairess is and forces its closure (please Judge Rakoff, do anything you can to accelerate this), but because we have been fascinated by the parallel farce that is the financial reform legislation which is nothing but yet another massive form of bailout for the big banks. We recommend our readers read David Reilly’s terrific overview of HR 4173: poor David is likely one of the 2 people in the entire world who read the entire 1,279 pages of mostly useless drivel. Some of its key points highlighted by Reilly are the following:
-- For all its heft, the bill doesn’t once mention the words “too-big-to-fail,” the main issue confronting the financial system. Admitting you have a problem, as any 12- stepper knows, is the crucial first step toward recovery.
-- Instead, it supports the biggest banks. It authorizes Federal Reserve banks to provide as much as $4 trillion in emergency funding the next time Wall Street crashes. So much for “no-more-bailouts” talk. That is more than twice what the Fed pumped into markets this time around. The size of the fund makes the bribes in the Senate’s health-care bill look minuscule.
-- Oh, hold on, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Secretary can’t authorize these funds unless “there is at least a 99 percent likelihood that all funds and interest will be paid back.” Too bad the same models used to foresee the housing meltdown probably will be used to predict this likelihood as well.
More Bailouts
-- The bill also allows the government, in a crisis, to back financial firms’ debts. Bondholders can sleep easy — there are more bailouts to
…
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by Zero Hedge - December 30th, 2009 3:39 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge has been a little quiet on the topic of HFT lately, not because we have come to peace with the threat that HFT presents to equity markets (we have not), and if HFT lobbyists are successful, CDS is next, or because we have realized that no matter what, Mary Schapiro will never, ever do the right thing and take a preemptive action instead of always doing damage control after the fact, until such time as the broader population finally realizes just how worthless the organization of the ex-Finra multi-millionairess is and forces its closure (please Judge Rakoff, do anything you can to accelerate this), but because we have been fascinated by the parallel farce that is the financial reform legislation which is nothing but yet another massive form of bailout for the big banks. We recommend our readers read David Reilly’s terrific overview of HR 4173: poor David is likely one of the 2 people in the entire world who read the entire 1,279 pages of mostly useless drivel. Some of its key points highlighted by Reilly are the following:
-- For all its heft, the bill doesn’t once mention the words “too-big-to-fail,” the main issue confronting the financial system. Admitting you have a problem, as any 12- stepper knows, is the crucial first step toward recovery.
-- Instead, it supports the biggest banks. It authorizes Federal Reserve banks to provide as much as $4 trillion in emergency funding the next time Wall Street crashes. So much for “no-more-bailouts” talk. That is more than twice what the Fed pumped into markets this time around. The size of the fund makes the bribes in the Senate’s health-care bill look minuscule.
-- Oh, hold on, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Secretary can’t authorize these funds unless “there is at least a 99 percent likelihood that all funds and interest will be paid back.” Too bad the same models used to foresee the housing meltdown probably will be used to predict this likelihood as well.
More Bailouts
-- The bill also allows the government, in a crisis, to back financial firms’ debts. Bondholders can sleep easy — there
…
Tags: HFT, Joe Saluzzi, Zero Hedge
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by Zero Hedge - December 30th, 2009 2:38 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
It is only fitting that one of the most schizophrenic years in recent capital markets history should close with a $5 million CMB auction pricing at 0.000%. And so the circle of chasing risky and risk-free assets with equal passion is now complete. Even as high yield bonds have returned over 50% YTD, investors can’t get enough of parking cash in yield free US government-backed pieces of paper. Many have claimed this phenomenon is indicative merely of capital allocation ahead of January 1. Well, that is in a few hours. And with the next 4-week Bill/CMB auction likely to take place within a week, we will promptly see if this is indeed the case. If we end up with another 0.000% soon, then the structural problems at the near-end of the curve will end up being much worse than most have expected. That, and negative 1 month rates coming a-plenty.
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by Zero Hedge - December 30th, 2009 2:16 pm
Courtesy of George Washington
It is obvious that many republicans oppose the proposed health care bill. But many liberals and progressives oppose it as well.
For example, economist L. Randall Wray writes:
Here’s the opportunity, Wall Street’s newest and bestest gamble: there is a huge untapped market of some 50 million people who are not paying insurance premiums—and the number grows every year because employers drop coverage and people can’t afford premiums. Solution? Health insurance “reform” that requires everyone to turn over their pay to Wall Street. Can’t afford the premiums? That is OK—Uncle Sam will kick in a few hundred billion to help out the insurers. Of course, do not expect more health care or better health outcomes because that has nothing to do with “reform” … Wall Street’s insurers… see a missed opportunity. They’ll collect the extra premiums and deny the claims. This is just another bailout of the financial system, because the tens of trillions of dollars already committed are not nearly enough.
Wray points out that – with the repeal of Glass Steagall – the financial sector and the insurance businesses (the “f” and “i” in the “fire” sector) are somewhat merged.
Wray is no conservative. He is Ph.D. is Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, Research Director with the Center for Full Employment and Price Stability and Senior Research Scholar at The Levy Economics Institute – which focuses on inequality in the distribution of earnings, income, and wealth.
Dr. Andrew Coates describes the bill as “a guarantee of insurance industry dominance and the continued privatization of health care in every arena.”
Dr. Coates is no conservative. He is a medical doctor, a member of the Public Employees Federation, AFL-CIO, secretary of the Capital District chapter of Physicians for a National Health Program, and teaches at Albany Medical College.
And – as I have previously pointed out – progressives such as law school professor Sheldon Laskin, anti-war activist David Swanson, and Miles Mogulescu are calling the bill authoritarian and unconstitutional because the government cannot legally force people to buy private health insurance.
Indeed, given Wray’s point that this is just another bailout in disguise, the bill should more properly be called a “wealth reform” bill than health reform legislation.
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January 27th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
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January 27th, 2012 1:01 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Festive Friday fun:
- FITCH TAKES RATING ACTIONS ON SIX EUROZONE SOVEREIGNS
- ITALY LT IDR CUT TO A- FROM A+ BY FITCH
- SPAIN ST IDR DOWNGRADED TO F1 FROM F1+ BY FITCH
- IRELAND L-T IDR AFFIRMED BY FITCH; OUTLOOK NEGATIVE
- BELGIUM LT IDR CUT TO AA FROM AA+ BY FITCH
- SLOVENIA LT IDR CUT TO A FROM AA- BY FITCH
- CYPRUS LT IDR CUT TO BBB- FROM BBB BY FITCH, OUTLOOK NEGATIVE
And some sheer brilliance from Fitch:
- In Fitch's opinion, the eurozone crisis will on...
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January 27th, 2012 12:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).
Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...
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January 27th, 2012 11:15 am
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high. Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...
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January 27th, 2012 10:05 am
Courtesy of Benzinga.
Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.
Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.
Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.
Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.
...
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January 27th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.
CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.
STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...
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January 26th, 2012 6:16 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party. The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.
The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...
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January 26th, 2012 1:38 pm
Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI
...
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January 23rd, 2012 8:56 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
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January 22nd, 2012 10:09 pm
Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general!
AA Money
Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance.
Previous week P&L - $400.00
We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium!
FAS Money
We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope.
Previous week P&L - $4372.00...
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January 22nd, 2012 2:52 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating. Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)
Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.
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January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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