Archive for 2009

Is Goldman's Selective Trading Disclosure A Legal Way For Preferred Clients To Front Run The Market?

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Zero Hedge has long been discussing the impact of selective informational disclosure, be it in the context of trading or research asymmetries, which promote a two-tiered market, where privileged accounts of major broker dealers receive “tips” ahead of “everyone else.” The quid’s pro quo is that these “privileged” few end up executing the bulk of their trades with the broker-dealer, thus ramping up riskless agency revenues. In essence the clients’ capital risk is mitigated, while the return to the “perpetrator” is augmented by collecting a disproportionate share of the bid/offer spread in the given security. Whether this tiering mechanism occurs via Flash orders, SLP provisioning, actionable IOIs, advance selective notice of a large flow order, a phone call, a limited Bloomberg blast, or an Instant Message, the ethics of the practice are undoubtedly shady, and potentially borderline criminal. But no one is the wiser, as both sender and receiver of information know to keep their mouth shut. Until today, when the WSJ blows one aspect of this practice out of the water, by focusing on Goldman’s selective informational disclosure to preferred clients, and is likely to create much more headache for Goldman’s PR department and its staunchest CNBC-based supporter.

In a long-overdue article titled “Goldman’s Trading Tips Reward Its Biggest Clients” author Susanne Craig brings much of the firm’s dirty laundry to the front page. While a must read for anyone interested in how Goldman Sachs “cultivates” its key client relationships, the summary is as follows:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. research analyst Marc Irizarry’s published rating on mutual-fund manager Janus Capital Group Inc. was a lackluster “neutral” in early April 2008. But at an internal meeting that month, the analyst told dozens of Goldman’s traders the stock was likely to head higher, company documents show.

The next day, research-department employees at Goldman called about 50 favored clients of the big securities firm with the same tip, including hedge-fund companies Citadel Investment Group and SAC Capital Advisors, the documents indicate. Readers of Mr. Irizarry’s research didn’t find out he was bullish until his written report was issued six days later, after Janus shares had jumped 5.8%.

This pretty much summarizes the “magical” performance that many hedge funds generated in Wall Street’s golden age: Goldman (and other firms, many of which however now…
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Boston Fed On The Panic Of 1907 ( Or Is That 2008?)

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Spot the 10 differences (if any) between this text and the one historians (hopefully not Fed bankers)  will write about our time period in 2109.

Some interesting comparisons, demonstrating that even as one hundred years pass, nothing really changes (except for the Fed Chairman’s printing press, which luckily, did not exist in 1907). Then and now:

  • New York Clearing House Committee -  FDIC
  • New York City’s clergy – CNBC
  • Knickerbocker Trust Company – Lehman Brothers
  • New York bankers – New York bankers
  • J.P. Morgan – J.P. Morgan (of course)
  • Cold – Swine Flu [TBD?]

MONDAY OCTOBER 14: The stock of United Copper Company soars past $62 a share.

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 16: United Copper closes at $15 a share after bank owner/speculator F.A. Heinze fails in his attempt to corner the company’s shares.

THURSDAY OCTOBER 17: Shortly after midnight, Heinze resigns as president of Mercantile National Bank. Later that morning, prompted by the fear that Heinze’s stock market losses might affect the bank, Mercantile National’s depositors scramble to withdraw their money.

During the day, Heinze’s Butte (Montana) Savings Bank fails as does the brokerage firm of Otto Heinze & Co., which is owned by the brother of F.A. Heinze.

That night, the New York Clearing House Committee declares that Mercantile National is “perfectly solvent and able to meet all its indebtedness.” The Committee’s acting chairman also announces that
the Clearing House will stand by the bank in the event of a run by depositors.

FRIDAY OCTOBER 18: Nine banks form an emergency pool of funds to aid Mercantile National. But depositors at Knickerbocker Trust Company begin to withdraw their money. They are concerned because
Knickerbocker’s president, Charles T. Barney, is an associate of F.A. Heinze.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 19: Charles W. Morse, a banker and speculator who was involved with Heinze in the disastrous copper corner, announces he will resign official positions at nine banks and trust companies.

MONDAY OCTOBER 21: Charles T. Barney resigns as president of Knickerbocker Trust Company. Depositors withdraw $8 million in less than four hours before Knickerbocker suspends operations.

TUESDAY OCTOBER 22: J.P. Morgan refuses to aid Knickerbocker Trust, wtiich does not reopen for business. A headline in the Neap York Times announces that Morgan will organize support for Trust Company of America, which is deemed to be in much better condition than Knickerbocker.

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER…
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THE CONTAINER CRISIS

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MUST READ: THE CONTAINER CRISIS

shipping - Salem, Mass shipping in the 1770sCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Excellent article here on the shipping industry and the problems that the recession has caused and continues to cause:

The global economic crisis is wreaking havoc on shipping: Demand and prices have collapsed and ports are filling up with fleets of empty freighters. The crisis has fueled cut-throat competition and not all companies will survive. Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd alone needs 1.75 billion euros to stay afloat.

the global financial and economic crisis has stifled the boom in container shipping, and it has happened almost overnight. For the first time in its history, the industry has stopped growing and, in fact, is shrinking. In the first six months of this year alone, the shipping industry declined by close to 16 percent.

ships MUST READ: THE CONTAINER CRISIS

The new giant ships are now much too big for the cargos they transport by sea, and often they sail half-empty — if at all. Billions are being spent to expand ports to handle a boom that no longer exists. Leading shipping line operators are on the verge of bankruptcy, as are shipping banks and charter shipping companies. The industry, once one of the biggest beneficiaries of globalization, now threatens to turn into one of its chief casualties.”There has never been a crisis like this before,” says Reinhard Lange, the CEO of Kühne + Nagel, the world’s largest sea-freight forwarder. Shipping line operators alone are expected to suffer combined losses of $20 billion in 2009.

Drewry Shipping Consultants, the world’s top consultant to the industry, warns: “The industry is looking at the edge of a deep abyss.” And industry publication Lloyds List writes: “Container shipping was thrown into a full-scale panic.”

This sense of panic is more palpable in Hamburg than almost anywhere else in the world.

Read the fully story here

 


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Larry Flynt: Obama Can’t Stand Up To The Bankers

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Larry Flynt: Obama Can’t Stand Up To The Bankers 

Courtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock


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Joe Saluzzi On The Stock Market And The Broader Economy

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

And no, no discussion of HFT, predatory algos or flash orders. Tune in for a broader, comprehensive market analysis.





Guest Post: The Spirits Are About To Speak. Are They Friendly?

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Submitted by Contrary Investor. A highly recommended read.

The Spirits Are About To Speak. Are They Friendly?...And of course we are referring to “animal spirits” as you might have guessed. Time for a little compare and contrast with current cycle margin debt trends relative to past meaningful cycle equity lift off periods. You may remember that in the past we have looked at margin debt at stock cycle inflection points very much being a corroborative indicator at the birth of many a historical equity bull market. History tells us that margin debt balances bottom literally within a month or so of past major market low points. And sure enough, we saw margin debt bottom for the current cycle (so far) in February of this year – right on schedule! So, yes, at least at this point, a bottom in margin debt balances confirmed the bottom in equities. The chart below will give you a feel for exactly what we are talking about in terms of this directional synchronicity between equity market and margin debt rhythm.

Ok, trying to corroborate equity market bottoms by watching the rhythm of margin debt is fine. But what happens next? By that we mean what has been the character of margin debt growth as equity markets have continued on their historical bull market journeys? We’ve put a table of numbers together below to help give us some perspective. You know the financial media simply cannot stop trumpeting the fact that equities in general are up 40%+ from the March lows of this year. Just the kind of media taunting to make folks feel as if they are idiots for having potentially missed it. Of course the headline financial media has absolutely no recollection at all that they had been screaming buy all the way down while the equity markets dropped over 50% in the first place. Selective memory works every time, right? Anyway, to compare and contrast current circumstances to prior cycles, we went back and looked at the first 40% move of each major post recession equity bull market since the early 1970’s. We looked at just how much margin debt had already increased by the time the S&P had risen 40% from cycle lows. Have a look.

Notice anything funny? Of course you do. The current…
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The Statistical Recovery, Part Three

The Statistical Recovery, Part Three

green shoots, statistical recoveryCourtesy of John Mauldin at Thoughts from the Frontline

The Statistical Recovery, Part Three
Capacity Utilization Set to Rise
A Real Estate Green Shoot?
The Deleveraging Society
Some Thoughts on Secular Bear Markets
Weddings and Ten Years of Thoughts From the Frontline

This week we further explore why this recovery will be a Statistical Recovery, or one that, as someone said, is a recovery only a statistician could love. We look at capacity utilization, more on housing, some thoughts on debt and deflation, and some intriguing charts on volatility in the last secular bear-market cycle. This letter will print a little longer, but there are lots of charts. I have written this during the week, and I finish it here in Tulsa, where Amanda gets married tomorrow. (There is no deflation in weddings costs!)

Thanks to so many of you for your enthusiastic feedback about my latest Accredited Investor Newsletter, in which I undertook to examine the impact of last year’s dramatic increase in volatility on the performance of hedge funds and to ascertain those elements that led to success in the industry, such as select Global Macro and Managed Futures strategies, as well as the challenges. If you are an accredited investor (basically anywhere in the world, as I have partners in Europe, Canada, Africa, and Latin America) and haven’t yet read my analysis, I invite you to sign up here: www.accreditedinvestor.ws

For those of you who seek to take advantage of these themes and the developments I write about each week, let me again mention my good friend Jon Sundt at Altegris Investments, who is my US partner. Jon and his team have recently added some of the more successful names in the industry to their dedicated platform of alternative investments, including commodity pools, hedge funds, and managed futures accounts. Certain products that Altegris makes available on its platform access award-winning managers, and are designed to facilitate access for qualified and suitable readers at sometimes lower investment minimums than is normally required (though the net-worth requirements are still the same).

If you haven’t spoken with them in a while, it’s worth checking out their new lineup of world-class managers. Jon also tells me they just added yet more brilliant minds to their research team, making it,…
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Sprott On Beyond The Stimulus

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Beyond the Stimulus by Sprott Asset Management

 

h/t Joel

Attachment Size
Sprott comment August 2009.pdf 44.74 KB




On Blogging Brawls and Bragging Rights

Courtesy of Leo Kolivakis


A couple of days ago Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism posted a comment, Who Is Tyler Durden? The post generated over 187 comments (and still counting), most of which were infantile swipes from morons claiming that one blog is better than the other one.

I got carried away too and used language that I shouldn’t have, but after sleeping on it, I want to offer you some of my thoughts on these blogging brawls and bragging rights.

First, while I defended Yves from the vitriolic attacks in the comments, her post was stupid and probably done to stir up shit in the blogosphere. As I stated in the comments, who cares who Tyler Durden is? Whether it is one person or a group of people posting anonymously, is irrelevant. As long as Zero Hedge keeps delivering interesting comments, people will read it and make up their own minds as to accuracy of what they are reporting.

That brings up my second point. Everyone has an agenda, including yours truly, and so does Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism. Everyone has their “schtick” and they want to be heard. The thing that gets me is that some people are a lot more transparent than others in their agenda. I use my real name, you can read all about me on my profile, I tell you my agenda right at the top of my blog. I say this because I just found out yesterday that Yves Smith is Susan Webber of Aurora Advisors.

[Note: Admittedly, I am an idiot because when I first started reading Naked Capitalism, I thought Yves was a guy. She then sent me an outline of her new book and I still couldn't figure out who she is. She even emailed me once or twice as Susan Webber and I never put two and two together because at that time, I thought it was someone else. You have to scroll all the way down to the bottom of her blog to see Aurora Advisors. No problem, I wish she told me right off the bat in clear English or posted it on her blog clearly so I can add her company to my list of advisors on my blog, which I gladly did last night.]

Third, your credibility is only as good as what you…
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Beating a Dead Horse

Beating a Dead Horse

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson’s ContrarianEdge and Active Value Investing 

“'Beauty Samba' is by my father Naum Katsenelson" - VitaliyI know, I may sound like I’m beating a dead horse – how much printer cartridge can one spill over China?  – but I have a very high burden of proof to overcome.  Let me demonstrate it by this analogy:  Let’s rewind 20 years.  It is 1989 and I am writing that the Japanese economy is on the verge of severe decline.  I’m facing a lot of skepticism.  Most people are calling me crazy and throwing heavy objects at me.  After all, the Japanese are on top of the world.  Their economy has been a consistent grower for decades, with a rate of growth that trumps that of the US and Europe.  Japan has the manufacturing thing nailed – they are simply better and more efficient at it than us. 

Magazines and newspapers swarm with stories about Japan, how hard working they are, how unique their culture is (we of course, feel inferior, as lazy Americans).  Japanese exports significantly exceed their imports, generating huge capital-account surpluses – they are swimming in dollars and buying up America. Every other restaurant in Hawaii serves sushi and menus are in English and Japanese (not Spanish).  I may be exaggerating with the last part, a little, but not much.
 
So, in 1989, who am I to poke holes in Japanese grandness and predict their malaise.  Japan could do no wrong.  Of course, we know how that story played out: a bust of a major banking/real estate bubble, a contracting economy for almost two decades, accompanied by deflation, ballooning debt, etc. 
 
Fast-forward, and China today is where Japan was in the late ’80s, except with the greater political instability that comes with a semi-controlled economy and the lack of a social safety net (read: jobless, hungry people don’t write angry letters, they riot). 
 
china olympics opening ceremonySince China can do nothing wrong, everything I write about it is met with skepticism.  Today China projects to the world a similar image as Japan did in the 1980s.  My personal favorite is the incredible spectacle of the Chinese Summer Olympics opening ceremony: the elegant, wonderfully choreographed performance by fifteen thousand people, the marvels of modern technology (the 500-foot LCD screen comes to mind here), the…
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Phil's Favorites

What Jeff Bezos gets wrong (and right) with his populist philanthropy

 

What Jeff Bezos gets wrong (and right) with his populist philanthropy

Courtesy of Ted Lechterman, Stanford University McCoy Family Center for Ethics in Society

Jeff Bezos, the world’s second-richest person, trails his peers when it comes to generosity. His family’s donations to hospitals, museums and universities rarely make headlines, and he hasn’t signed the ...



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ValueWalk

Rapid rise of Chinese debt

By Dan Steinbock. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Despite seemingly mixed messages, China’s great shift from easing to tightening has begun. While growth will continue to decelerate, it can still remain on the deceleration track, even as deleveraging has begun.
In May, Moody’s Investor Service downgraded China’s credit rating. But it took less than a day for Chinese financial markets to recover from the downgrade. Recently, index giant MSCI announced the partial inclusion of China-traded A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Market Index. After all, China is currently under-represented in global equity indices relative to its economic influence. The inclusion is predicated on a long and gradual move.
In brief, Moody’s believes that the rapid rise of Chinese deb...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 26th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Insider Scoop

Mid-Day Market Update: Crude Oil Up Over 2%; Xenon Pharmaceuticals Shares Slide

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Midway through trading Tuesday, the Dow traded up 0.10 percent to 21,430.46 while the NASDAQ declined 0.29 percent to 6,228.91. The S&P also rose, gaining 0.03 percent to 2,439.75.

Leading and Lagging Sectors

Energy shares rose by 0.67 percent in the US market on Tuesday. Top gainers in the sector included Zion Oil & Gas, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZN), Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. (NYSE: TOO), and SunCoke Energy Inc (NYSE: SXC).

In trading on Tuesday, technol...



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Zero Hedge

Seattle Min Wage Hikes Crushing The Poor: 6,700 Jobs Lost, Annual Wages Down $1,500 - UofW Study

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just last week we noted that McDonalds launched plans to replace 2,500 human cashiers with digital kiosks like the ones below (see: McDonalds Is Replacing 2,500 Human Cashiers With Digital Kiosks: Here Is Its Math):

Of course, no matt...



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Chart School

Kelly Heros Sgt. OddBall philosophy to read stock charts

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Sgt OddBall said these famous words "Don’t hit me with them negative waves so early in the morning!".



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readtheticker.com PnF charts allows the chart reader the judge price waves of both positive and negative.

Waves are judged 3 (power), 2 (significant), 1 (above average). Blue is up, Red is down.

For each PnF wave you should judge: breaking into new ground or not, thrust, volume, net volume, strength (3, 2 or 1).

In an uptrend (mark up): You wish to see blue positive 3s and 2s controlling the trend, breaking into n...

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Biotech

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Courtesy of Electra D. Paskett, The Ohio State University

Early in our careers, few of us imagined a vaccine could one day prevent cancer. Now there is a vaccine that keeps the risk of developing six Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers at bay, but adoption of it has been slow and surprising low.

Although it’s been available for more than a decade, as of 2014 only 40 percent of girls had received the full three doses of the vaccine, while only ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Buyer Beware

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Entrepreneurs have a new trick to raise money quickly, and it all takes place online, free from the constraints of banks and regulators. As Axios reports, since the beginning of 2017, 65 startups have raised $522 million using initial coin offerings — trading a digital coin (essentially an investment in their company) for a digital currency, like Bitcoin or Ether.

One recent example, as NYT reports, saw Bay Area coders earn $35 million in less than 30 seconds during an online fund-raising event...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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