Archive for 2009

Is Goldman's Selective Trading Disclosure A Legal Way For Preferred Clients To Front Run The Market?

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Zero Hedge has long been discussing the impact of selective informational disclosure, be it in the context of trading or research asymmetries, which promote a two-tiered market, where privileged accounts of major broker dealers receive “tips” ahead of “everyone else.” The quid’s pro quo is that these “privileged” few end up executing the bulk of their trades with the broker-dealer, thus ramping up riskless agency revenues. In essence the clients’ capital risk is mitigated, while the return to the “perpetrator” is augmented by collecting a disproportionate share of the bid/offer spread in the given security. Whether this tiering mechanism occurs via Flash orders, SLP provisioning, actionable IOIs, advance selective notice of a large flow order, a phone call, a limited Bloomberg blast, or an Instant Message, the ethics of the practice are undoubtedly shady, and potentially borderline criminal. But no one is the wiser, as both sender and receiver of information know to keep their mouth shut. Until today, when the WSJ blows one aspect of this practice out of the water, by focusing on Goldman’s selective informational disclosure to preferred clients, and is likely to create much more headache for Goldman’s PR department and its staunchest CNBC-based supporter.

In a long-overdue article titled “Goldman’s Trading Tips Reward Its Biggest Clients” author Susanne Craig brings much of the firm’s dirty laundry to the front page. While a must read for anyone interested in how Goldman Sachs “cultivates” its key client relationships, the summary is as follows:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. research analyst Marc Irizarry’s published rating on mutual-fund manager Janus Capital Group Inc. was a lackluster “neutral” in early April 2008. But at an internal meeting that month, the analyst told dozens of Goldman’s traders the stock was likely to head higher, company documents show.

The next day, research-department employees at Goldman called about 50 favored clients of the big securities firm with the same tip, including hedge-fund companies Citadel Investment Group and SAC Capital Advisors, the documents indicate. Readers of Mr. Irizarry’s research didn’t find out he was bullish until his written report was issued six days later, after Janus shares had jumped 5.8%.

This pretty much summarizes the “magical” performance that many hedge funds generated in Wall Street’s golden age: Goldman (and other firms, many of which however now…
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Boston Fed On The Panic Of 1907 ( Or Is That 2008?)

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Spot the 10 differences (if any) between this text and the one historians (hopefully not Fed bankers)  will write about our time period in 2109.

Some interesting comparisons, demonstrating that even as one hundred years pass, nothing really changes (except for the Fed Chairman’s printing press, which luckily, did not exist in 1907). Then and now:

  • New York Clearing House Committee -  FDIC
  • New York City’s clergy – CNBC
  • Knickerbocker Trust Company – Lehman Brothers
  • New York bankers – New York bankers
  • J.P. Morgan – J.P. Morgan (of course)
  • Cold – Swine Flu [TBD?]

MONDAY OCTOBER 14: The stock of United Copper Company soars past $62 a share.

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 16: United Copper closes at $15 a share after bank owner/speculator F.A. Heinze fails in his attempt to corner the company’s shares.

THURSDAY OCTOBER 17: Shortly after midnight, Heinze resigns as president of Mercantile National Bank. Later that morning, prompted by the fear that Heinze’s stock market losses might affect the bank, Mercantile National’s depositors scramble to withdraw their money.

During the day, Heinze’s Butte (Montana) Savings Bank fails as does the brokerage firm of Otto Heinze & Co., which is owned by the brother of F.A. Heinze.

That night, the New York Clearing House Committee declares that Mercantile National is “perfectly solvent and able to meet all its indebtedness.” The Committee’s acting chairman also announces that
the Clearing House will stand by the bank in the event of a run by depositors.

FRIDAY OCTOBER 18: Nine banks form an emergency pool of funds to aid Mercantile National. But depositors at Knickerbocker Trust Company begin to withdraw their money. They are concerned because
Knickerbocker’s president, Charles T. Barney, is an associate of F.A. Heinze.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 19: Charles W. Morse, a banker and speculator who was involved with Heinze in the disastrous copper corner, announces he will resign official positions at nine banks and trust companies.

MONDAY OCTOBER 21: Charles T. Barney resigns as president of Knickerbocker Trust Company. Depositors withdraw $8 million in less than four hours before Knickerbocker suspends operations.

TUESDAY OCTOBER 22: J.P. Morgan refuses to aid Knickerbocker Trust, wtiich does not reopen for business. A headline in the Neap York Times announces that Morgan will organize support for Trust Company of America, which is deemed to be in much better condition than Knickerbocker.

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER…
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THE CONTAINER CRISIS

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MUST READ: THE CONTAINER CRISIS

shipping - Salem, Mass shipping in the 1770sCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Excellent article here on the shipping industry and the problems that the recession has caused and continues to cause:

The global economic crisis is wreaking havoc on shipping: Demand and prices have collapsed and ports are filling up with fleets of empty freighters. The crisis has fueled cut-throat competition and not all companies will survive. Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd alone needs 1.75 billion euros to stay afloat.

the global financial and economic crisis has stifled the boom in container shipping, and it has happened almost overnight. For the first time in its history, the industry has stopped growing and, in fact, is shrinking. In the first six months of this year alone, the shipping industry declined by close to 16 percent.

ships MUST READ: THE CONTAINER CRISIS

The new giant ships are now much too big for the cargos they transport by sea, and often they sail half-empty — if at all. Billions are being spent to expand ports to handle a boom that no longer exists. Leading shipping line operators are on the verge of bankruptcy, as are shipping banks and charter shipping companies. The industry, once one of the biggest beneficiaries of globalization, now threatens to turn into one of its chief casualties.”There has never been a crisis like this before,” says Reinhard Lange, the CEO of Kühne + Nagel, the world’s largest sea-freight forwarder. Shipping line operators alone are expected to suffer combined losses of $20 billion in 2009.

Drewry Shipping Consultants, the world’s top consultant to the industry, warns: “The industry is looking at the edge of a deep abyss.” And industry publication Lloyds List writes: “Container shipping was thrown into a full-scale panic.”

This sense of panic is more palpable in Hamburg than almost anywhere else in the world.

Read the fully story here

 


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Larry Flynt: Obama Can’t Stand Up To The Bankers

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Larry Flynt: Obama Can’t Stand Up To The Bankers 

Courtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock


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Joe Saluzzi On The Stock Market And The Broader Economy

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

And no, no discussion of HFT, predatory algos or flash orders. Tune in for a broader, comprehensive market analysis.





Guest Post: The Spirits Are About To Speak. Are They Friendly?

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Submitted by Contrary Investor. A highly recommended read.

The Spirits Are About To Speak. Are They Friendly?...And of course we are referring to “animal spirits” as you might have guessed. Time for a little compare and contrast with current cycle margin debt trends relative to past meaningful cycle equity lift off periods. You may remember that in the past we have looked at margin debt at stock cycle inflection points very much being a corroborative indicator at the birth of many a historical equity bull market. History tells us that margin debt balances bottom literally within a month or so of past major market low points. And sure enough, we saw margin debt bottom for the current cycle (so far) in February of this year – right on schedule! So, yes, at least at this point, a bottom in margin debt balances confirmed the bottom in equities. The chart below will give you a feel for exactly what we are talking about in terms of this directional synchronicity between equity market and margin debt rhythm.

Ok, trying to corroborate equity market bottoms by watching the rhythm of margin debt is fine. But what happens next? By that we mean what has been the character of margin debt growth as equity markets have continued on their historical bull market journeys? We’ve put a table of numbers together below to help give us some perspective. You know the financial media simply cannot stop trumpeting the fact that equities in general are up 40%+ from the March lows of this year. Just the kind of media taunting to make folks feel as if they are idiots for having potentially missed it. Of course the headline financial media has absolutely no recollection at all that they had been screaming buy all the way down while the equity markets dropped over 50% in the first place. Selective memory works every time, right? Anyway, to compare and contrast current circumstances to prior cycles, we went back and looked at the first 40% move of each major post recession equity bull market since the early 1970’s. We looked at just how much margin debt had already increased by the time the S&P had risen 40% from cycle lows. Have a look.

Notice anything funny? Of course you do. The current…
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The Statistical Recovery, Part Three

The Statistical Recovery, Part Three

green shoots, statistical recoveryCourtesy of John Mauldin at Thoughts from the Frontline

The Statistical Recovery, Part Three
Capacity Utilization Set to Rise
A Real Estate Green Shoot?
The Deleveraging Society
Some Thoughts on Secular Bear Markets
Weddings and Ten Years of Thoughts From the Frontline

This week we further explore why this recovery will be a Statistical Recovery, or one that, as someone said, is a recovery only a statistician could love. We look at capacity utilization, more on housing, some thoughts on debt and deflation, and some intriguing charts on volatility in the last secular bear-market cycle. This letter will print a little longer, but there are lots of charts. I have written this during the week, and I finish it here in Tulsa, where Amanda gets married tomorrow. (There is no deflation in weddings costs!)

Thanks to so many of you for your enthusiastic feedback about my latest Accredited Investor Newsletter, in which I undertook to examine the impact of last year’s dramatic increase in volatility on the performance of hedge funds and to ascertain those elements that led to success in the industry, such as select Global Macro and Managed Futures strategies, as well as the challenges. If you are an accredited investor (basically anywhere in the world, as I have partners in Europe, Canada, Africa, and Latin America) and haven’t yet read my analysis, I invite you to sign up here: www.accreditedinvestor.ws

For those of you who seek to take advantage of these themes and the developments I write about each week, let me again mention my good friend Jon Sundt at Altegris Investments, who is my US partner. Jon and his team have recently added some of the more successful names in the industry to their dedicated platform of alternative investments, including commodity pools, hedge funds, and managed futures accounts. Certain products that Altegris makes available on its platform access award-winning managers, and are designed to facilitate access for qualified and suitable readers at sometimes lower investment minimums than is normally required (though the net-worth requirements are still the same).

If you haven’t spoken with them in a while, it’s worth checking out their new lineup of world-class managers. Jon also tells me they just added yet more brilliant minds to their research team, making it,…
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Sprott On Beyond The Stimulus

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Beyond the Stimulus by Sprott Asset Management

 

h/t Joel

Attachment Size
Sprott comment August 2009.pdf 44.74 KB




On Blogging Brawls and Bragging Rights

Courtesy of Leo Kolivakis


A couple of days ago Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism posted a comment, Who Is Tyler Durden? The post generated over 187 comments (and still counting), most of which were infantile swipes from morons claiming that one blog is better than the other one.

I got carried away too and used language that I shouldn’t have, but after sleeping on it, I want to offer you some of my thoughts on these blogging brawls and bragging rights.

First, while I defended Yves from the vitriolic attacks in the comments, her post was stupid and probably done to stir up shit in the blogosphere. As I stated in the comments, who cares who Tyler Durden is? Whether it is one person or a group of people posting anonymously, is irrelevant. As long as Zero Hedge keeps delivering interesting comments, people will read it and make up their own minds as to accuracy of what they are reporting.

That brings up my second point. Everyone has an agenda, including yours truly, and so does Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism. Everyone has their “schtick” and they want to be heard. The thing that gets me is that some people are a lot more transparent than others in their agenda. I use my real name, you can read all about me on my profile, I tell you my agenda right at the top of my blog. I say this because I just found out yesterday that Yves Smith is Susan Webber of Aurora Advisors.

[Note: Admittedly, I am an idiot because when I first started reading Naked Capitalism, I thought Yves was a guy. She then sent me an outline of her new book and I still couldn't figure out who she is. She even emailed me once or twice as Susan Webber and I never put two and two together because at that time, I thought it was someone else. You have to scroll all the way down to the bottom of her blog to see Aurora Advisors. No problem, I wish she told me right off the bat in clear English or posted it on her blog clearly so I can add her company to my list of advisors on my blog, which I gladly did last night.]

Third, your credibility is only as good as what you…
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Beating a Dead Horse

Beating a Dead Horse

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson’s ContrarianEdge and Active Value Investing 

“'Beauty Samba' is by my father Naum Katsenelson" - VitaliyI know, I may sound like I’m beating a dead horse – how much printer cartridge can one spill over China?  – but I have a very high burden of proof to overcome.  Let me demonstrate it by this analogy:  Let’s rewind 20 years.  It is 1989 and I am writing that the Japanese economy is on the verge of severe decline.  I’m facing a lot of skepticism.  Most people are calling me crazy and throwing heavy objects at me.  After all, the Japanese are on top of the world.  Their economy has been a consistent grower for decades, with a rate of growth that trumps that of the US and Europe.  Japan has the manufacturing thing nailed – they are simply better and more efficient at it than us. 

Magazines and newspapers swarm with stories about Japan, how hard working they are, how unique their culture is (we of course, feel inferior, as lazy Americans).  Japanese exports significantly exceed their imports, generating huge capital-account surpluses – they are swimming in dollars and buying up America. Every other restaurant in Hawaii serves sushi and menus are in English and Japanese (not Spanish).  I may be exaggerating with the last part, a little, but not much.
 
So, in 1989, who am I to poke holes in Japanese grandness and predict their malaise.  Japan could do no wrong.  Of course, we know how that story played out: a bust of a major banking/real estate bubble, a contracting economy for almost two decades, accompanied by deflation, ballooning debt, etc. 
 
Fast-forward, and China today is where Japan was in the late ’80s, except with the greater political instability that comes with a semi-controlled economy and the lack of a social safety net (read: jobless, hungry people don’t write angry letters, they riot). 
 
china olympics opening ceremonySince China can do nothing wrong, everything I write about it is met with skepticism.  Today China projects to the world a similar image as Japan did in the 1980s.  My personal favorite is the incredible spectacle of the Chinese Summer Olympics opening ceremony: the elegant, wonderfully choreographed performance by fifteen thousand people, the marvels of modern technology (the 500-foot LCD screen comes to mind here), the…
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Zero Hedge

Trumphoria Fades - Dollar Down, Stocks Down, Bonds Down, Banks Down, Oil Down, Gold Up

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Herd mentality?

Gold remains 2017's big winner, Crude the big loser and The Dow in the red...

In fact The Dow and Small Caps are now red YTD...

Intraday saw a notable spike in VIX and dump in stocks...

...



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ValueWalk

This Emerging Global Trend Just Hit The World's #2 Lithium Producer

By PiercePoints. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The “value added” craze has been sweeping the mining world. With governments from Zimbabwe to Indonesia calling for miners to upgrade copper, nickel, aluminum and platinum in-country — rather than exporting lower-value mineral concentrates.

And this week, the world’s second-largest lithium nation jumped on the bandwagon. Calling for increased processing of lithium in the country, and offering financial incentives for those who help.

By Dnn87 (Self-photographed) [GFDL or CC BY 3.0], ...

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Phil's Favorites

Investment Bank Analysts Are Clueless and Incompetent (Video)

Courtesy of EconMatters

We discuss why Investment Bank Analysts should never be listened to regarding any stock recommendations from the buy or sell side perspective, they join the long list of incompetency that is anybody still working at an I-Bank these days. The XOM Stock Downgrade is just a little late, about a month behind the market!

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil, Snow and Saudi Billions: Secret Davos Gets Down to Business (Bloomberg)

Nothing sharpens the mind of Davos delegates more than the prospect of striking big deals -- and after a day of debating globalization and its discontents it was time to go for the biggest one of all.

Oil Gains as U.S. Stockpiles Fall While IEA Sees OPEC Cutting (Bloomberg)

Oil recovered after the biggest drop in more than a week as industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles declined, while OPEC and other producing nations trim output to ease a ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will it be different this time for stocks and bonds?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

My mentor Sir John Templeton (founder of the Templeton Funds) used to share that the four most dangerous words in investing are; “It’s Different This Time!” 

Below looks at long term charts on the S&P 500 and the yield on the 10-year note (inverted to look like bond prices).

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

...

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Members' Corner

NFL 2016 Playoffs Championship Sunday

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Following up on our Divisional Playoff projections, all match up stats in Yards Per Attempt, provided by Pro Football Reference.  All times Eastern.

From our Wildcard Weekend projections...
As they are both hotter than a squirrel putting suntan oil on his nuts, keep your eyes on these dark horses...In the NFC, watch the GB Sausage Packers, the potential of facing Mr. Rodgers and his O-line has the DAL Pokes (aka Jerry's Kids) defensive coordinator sweatin like a priest at a preschool.In the AFC, watch the Three Ri...

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Chart School

Russell 2000 Breaks Lower

Courtesy of Declan.

In the end, it was Theresa May and not Trump which saw the Russell 2000 cut through support and confirm the earlier 'bull trap'.  This change coincided with a 'sell' trigger in +DI/-DI. Only stochastics are hanging on to its 'buy' signal.


The S&P experienced heavier volume distribution, but there wasn't a big percentage loss, nor was there a break from the consolidation range

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

China's Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Margin Trading

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China's bitcoin traders who use the most popular bitcoin exchange not only in China, but also the entire world, BTCChina, were met with an unexpected warning on Friday:

Starting from January 12th, 2017, BTCChina has suspended margin loan service. If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service: support@btcc.com.

BTCChina, which commands over 37% of global bitcoin trading...

... wasn't alone.

Fo...



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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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