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Erik Nielsen’s Afternoon Greece Update

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Yawn.

I am running between meetings here in NY so I apologises but I cannot respond to all the emails I get from clients and sales people today.  So let me address a few of the latest rumours that I get lots of questions on:

  1. IMF is likely to reach agreement this coming weekend.  It’ll then go to the Board for formal approval, which is a formality.
  2. The program will NOT be 100-150bn.  Not realistic.  But it will probably include a year of full funding (55bn), and indications of a long term commitment to help Greece.
  3. The program will not include a “private sector contribution”, ie a demand for debt restructuring.
  4. the first European money, including in Spain, will be approved on Friday; others including Germany will followed very shortly after.  It looks as if the European money will be disbursed in parallel with the IMF, with the first money going out before mid-May, safely in time for the May 19 “deadline”.
  5. The ECB is extremely unlikely to intervene in Greek sovereign debt (what would they want to achieve by doing so?).

 

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