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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Goldman’s +/- 0.0001% NFP Estimate: 175,000 (125,000 Census), 9.7% Unemployment

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Jan Hatzius, who along with Erik Nielsen, knows what the DOL and the IMF will announce and do about two weeks before the respective agencies do, has come out with his most recent preliminary NFP number. The verdict: +175,000, consisting of 125,000 from the Census. The unemployment rate will remain at 9.7%, unchanged from March’s hilarious 9.749% (the gov’t just like goldman rounds down the nearest trillion). Still, a bit off from VP Biden’s prophecy of half a million jobs created each month “very soon.”

From Jan:

Claims Down Modestly But Still at High Levels; Preliminary Payroll Forecast is +175,000
BOTTOM LINE: A mixed report as initial and continuing claims fall modestly but from upward-revised levels, particularly for continuing claims. We expect nonfarm payroll hiring of +175k for April, consisting of underlying hiring of 50k and a census contribution of 125k.

KEY NUMBERS:
Initial claims -11k to 448k in week ended Apr 24 vs. median forecast 445k.
Continuing claims -18k to 4.645 million in week ended Apr 17 vs. median forecast 4.618 million.

MAIN POINTS:
1. Initial claims fall by 11k to 448k in the week ended April 24. (There was a negligible revision of +3k to 459k in the prior week). The 4-week average of initial claims remains high at 463k.

2. While continuing claims fell by 18k to 4.645m in the week ended April 17, they were revised up in the previous week by 17k to 4.663m. Continued claims were therefore essentially flat between the March and April payroll survey weeks. Extended benefits, which are available only through April 10, fell by 91k after falling by 480k the week before. The significant reduction of the number of extended benefits claims since the beginning of April is consistent with the expiration of the extended benefits programs during this time.

3. We expect nonfarm payroll hiring of +175k for April, released next Friday. Our estimate consists of underlying hiring of +50k and a census hiring contribution of 125k. We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 9.7%. While the strong census hiring might be expected to push down the unemployment rate, the starting point in March is a high 9.7% (at 9.749%). As usual, these forecasts are preliminary and subject to ongoing review over the next week as new information comes to light.

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