Bigotgate
by ilene - April 30th, 2010 12:58 pm
Jon Stewart discusses Gordon Brown’s “bigoted” comment last night on the Daily Show. (Gordon Brown forgot to turn off his mic in the car, after speaking with the "sweetest old lady in England.") Opps. – Ilene
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| Clustershag to 10 Downing | ||||
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DiggRANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing – Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 30/04/10
by Zero Hedge - April 30th, 2010 12:56 pm
Courtesy of RANSquawk Video
The Fab Fab Self Eval For Dummies
by Zero Hedge - April 30th, 2010 12:47 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge
Just in case all those long, multisyllabic words like "integrity, honesty, ethicality, and client-focus" confuse you…From William Banzai
UPDATING OUR OUTLOOK ON HOUSING
by ilene - April 30th, 2010 12:38 pm
UPDATING OUR OUTLOOK ON HOUSING
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
In 2006 when housing
“The credit driven housing bubble remains the greatest risk to the equity markets at this time.”
Since the government stimulus programs kicked in around late 2008 I turned mildly bullish on U.S. housing. With the understanding that government backstops would likely bolster the market I said:
“Housing [will remain] in a steep decline, though the rate of decline slows substantially by the middle of 2009. The
market does not rebound, but false hope of a sharp turnaround appears possible by the end of 2009.”
Earlier this year I wrote:
“While we believe housing markets could show signs of life this Spring we continue to think the recovery in housing is almost entirely stimulus based and the long-term bear market in housing is still very much alive. The laws of supply and demand have been temporarily lifted as the government attempts to price-fix a broken market. In the long-run, however, the market is likely to return to its negative trends as the second round of mortgage resets and inventory overhang impose their will on a still very fragile U.S. consumer. All of this adds up to a potentially bullish H1 in housing followed by a potentially treacherous 2011.”
In our 2010 outlook I said the government’s stimulus programs would continue to bolster asset prices (including equities). But with the housing tax credit coming to a close in the next few days it’s finally time to take a look at these markets for what they really are and not what the government has been making them out to be. In other words, the laws of supply and demand will come back to some semblance of reality.
As I’ve maintained, the price stability in housing has been primarily government induced. The “false dawn” we have been seeing has been primarily due to in incentives bolstered market and government spending that papered over the weakness in the private sector. Housing is notoriously seasonal and in my opinion the government couldn’t be stepping aside at a much worse time.
Although we’ve seen some certain signs of stability in recent months we’re also beginning to see some signals that could be forecasting the next leg down in the housing market. The following chart shows the housing loan performance index compared to the Case…
Fed Posts Official Guidelines On Reverse Repos…From Money Markets
by Zero Hedge - April 30th, 2010 12:23 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
Ah, ye old “have your ZIRP cake and eat it too.” First the Fed’s overlord single-handedly destroys money market holdings courtesy of negative real rates in his scramble to get 120 year olds to buy Baidu, and now after the same MMs are down well more than 10% in AUM in 2010 alone, he is formalizing the way to bleed them even further. From Reuters: “The New York Fed on Friday posted on its website a master agreement it will use with money market funds to engage in reverse repos. The contract details the steps the New York Fed and money market fund counterparties will have to take to enter into a reverse repo agreement. Such an agreement would lock up cash at the Fed for a predetermined amount of time.” The actual press release from the Goldman branch of the Currency Printing Institute is below:
The Federal Reserve Board has approved amendments to Regulation D (Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions) authorizing the Reserve Banks to offer term deposits to institutions that are eligible to receive earnings on their balances at Reserve Banks. These amendments incorporate public comments on the proposed amendments to Regulation D that were announced on December 28, 2009.
Term deposits, which are deposits with specified maturity dates that are held by eligible institutions at Reserve Banks, will be offered through a Term Deposit Facility (TDF). Term deposits will be one of several tools that the Federal Reserve could employ to drain reserves when policymakers judge that it is appropriate to begin moving to a less accommodative stance of monetary policy. The development of the TDF is a matter of prudent planning and has no implication for the near-term conduct of monetary policy.
The amendments approved by the Board are a necessary step in the implementation of the TDF. As noted in the attached Federal Register notice, the Federal Reserve anticipates that it will conduct small-value offerings of term deposits under the TDF in coming months to ensure the effective operation of the TDF and to help eligible institutions to become familiar with the term-deposit program. More detailed information about the structure and operation of the TDF, including information on the steps necessary for eligible institutions to participate in the program, will be provided later.
Becauae you know it’s the…
Rumor Of Fed Activation Of ECB Swap Lines
by Zero Hedge - April 30th, 2010 11:47 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
Developing, but not surprising. Shit happens when your central bank drinking buddies are all broke. Issue is per Grayson amendment Bernanke needs to get Geithner’s public approval to do this. Has Bernanke broken the law to bail out Europe? Or does the Fed have perpetual immunity from law compliance? There is nothing in the most recent week’s H.4.1 on liquidity swaps. We will see if this changes next Tuesday.
Euro Plunges, Apparently Entire Continent’s Currency Now Correlates With Goldman Regulatory Actions
by Zero Hedge - April 30th, 2010 11:38 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
Oh isn’t it ironic that Goldman’s Correlation desk is the one calling the shots on the entire market?
And for all those who were kicking themselves for missing the Goldman “bottom”, here is your chance to catch a falling chainsaw for the second time.
Gold Chart (GLD)
by Chart School - April 30th, 2010 11:35 am
GLD
Courtesy of Allan
I wrote to my subscribers last night about GLD; that it is on a fresh Buy on the Daily chart and is in Buy Pending mode on the Weekly chart. That longer-term Weekly Buy should be confirmed by today’s close. Below is a GLD 240 minute chart:
The most recent Buy on the chart came on April 20th at 111.93. With GLD up above 115 today, that is about a 3% rise from inception of the trade. Taking a look at the option tables, a 3% rise in near-term at the money calls translates into a pro-forma rise in the option of well over 100%, i.e. from about $2.07 to between $4.00 and $4.85:
That’s a healthy return for a ten-day period. But it has to be, as the trade has to make up for the previous whipsaw, where I suspect a loss on the option would be about 30%. Adding it all up, assuming that for any given two trades there is a 30% loss followed by a 100% gain, at the end of the year you are addicted to the trend models.
A lot of assumptions here, including pro-forma and/or hypothetical analysis. But the underlying trading paradigm is not assumed, it is real and based on this rear-view mirror option analysis, is a viable strategy going forward. Daily and Weekly models offer similar opportunity and I’ll eventually get around to posting this same kind of analysis for those time frames.
Allan’s newly launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with the trend-following trading system he’s been working on for years. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here. For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article. – Ilene
The Economist FTW
by Zero Hedge - April 30th, 2010 10:04 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
All you need to know in two easy words.
BofA Downgrades Goldman On Federal Probe
by Zero Hedge - April 30th, 2010 9:45 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
Not to worry though, other blogs are allegedly saying the criminal case against Goldman is a total “non-event.” We’ll go with them over a major bank ripping into a major constituent of its own ponzi kabal any day.
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
| Bofa Goldman.pdf | 140.5 KB |
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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