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Second Tropical Depression, With 60% Chance Of Becoming A Cyclone, Forming Over Macondo Zone

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

According to the NHC, a weather formation, centered about 50 miles south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana, is packing sustained winds near tropical storm force. As the map below indicates, this is above the Macondo blowout. According to Reuters, “there was a “high chance” it will become the second named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season before it makes landfall in the Terrebonne Parish area near Caillou Bay early Monday evening, the Miami-based hurricane center said.” Tomorrow, the news of yet another 60% probability cyclone ramming the cleanup effort will be digested alongside the WSJ report that Libya is allegedly looking to make a staple British company part-owned by the Khadafi regime. And just in case one was not enough, it appears a second Hurricane is forming further south: “Forecasters at the hurricane center were also keeping close watch over an area of disturbed weather in the southeastern Gulf that could strengthen into a tropical depression later this week, potentially hampering oil spill clean-up efforts.”

From the National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH…ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE BAY…LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…60 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT… LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN


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