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The Oxen Report: August Leaves $10000 Buy Virtual Portfolio Up 62% on Year and 5% Month-over-Month, Short Sale Virtual Portfolio Up Nearly 22% on Year

August was yet another terrific month for the Oxen Report. Our Buy/Overnight/Week Trade Virtual Portfolio for 2010 is up 65% so far this year with 113 trades. We have gotten 85 of these 113 actionable trades correct, giving the virtual portfolio a 75% success rate thus far for the year. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio is up over 21% thus far this year on 53 trades, and it has over a 79% success rate as well with 42 correct trades. Finally, we have a new virtual portfolio that just started in May for Long Term Investments. The virtual portfolio is not one that needs to be updated on a daily basis, but we will continue to watch for developments that would change my thoughts on our fair value estimates for them. Our 2009 virtual portfolios ended with Buy Picks up 108% in 9 months. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio ended up 10% in 6 months.

 
The way that my virtual portfolio works is that for Buy/Overnight/Week, I have started with $10000 in 2010. This amount is divided between four mini-accounts that each have $2500 in them. These mini-accounts A-D are rotated through each other so that I can account for multiple positions being open at one time and having time to let money settle after selling a position. Below the account virtual portfolio for August of 2010 is available. The virtual portfolio shows entry, exit, amount gained/lost, changes in account and total money, and the date of action. If you would like to view January – June, click here.
 
The Buy/Overnight/Weekly Virtual Portfolio
 
07/30/2010 – 08/02/10 WATG 8.1 8.2 1.25% 31.6 3240.16       15480.85
07/30/2010 – 08/02/2010 KLIC 6.65 6.95 4.75% 194.5   4685.86     15675.35
08/02/10 HNT 23.7 24.31 3.00% 99.36     4292.49   15774.71
08/03/10 SKF 19.26 19.43 0.85% 22.43       3480.52 15797.14
08/03/2010 – 08/04/10 XEC 70.6 70.1 -0.75% -30.5 3209.66       15766.64
08/04/10 ONNN 6.85 6.87 0.33% 5.68   4691.54     15772.32
08/05/10 CROX 12.02 12.5 4.00% 163.36     4455.85   15935.68
08/05/10 – 08/06/10 BRKS 7.95 8.04 1.25% 31.33       3511.85 15967.01
08/06/10 SPWRA 12.8 13.42 4.00% 147 3356.66       16114.01
08/09/10 NVDA 9.48 8.99 -5.50% -250.06   4441.48     15863.95
08/10/10 LDK 7.28 7.42 2.00% 77.68     4533.53   15941.63
08/10/10 – 08/11/10 SPWRA 12.9 13.4 4.00% 128       3639.85 16069.63
08/11/10 – 08/12/10 ENS 23.7 22.4 -5.50% -191.3 3165.36       15878.33
08/12/2010 – 08/13/10 JWN 31.95 30.35 -5.00% -230.4   4211.08     15647.93
08/13/2010 – 08/18/10 STP 8.95 9.12 2.00% 78.02     4611.55   15725.95
08/16/10 URBN 30.7 31.6 3.00% 98.2       3738.05 15824.15
08/17/10 TER 9.64 9.76 1.25% 31.36 3196.72       15855.51
8/18/10 – 08/19/10 TECD 38.2 39.11 2.50% 92.1   4203.18     15947.61
08/19/10 – 08/20/10 VRGY 8.6 8.8 2.50% 99.2     4710.75   16046.81
08/23/10 TSL 22.6 23.45 3.75% 132.25       3870.3 16179.06
08/23/10 IRF 19 19.57 3.00% 87.76 3284.48       16266.82
08/24/10 BWS 12.5 12.86 3.00% 112.96   4316.14     16379.78
08/26/10 CAAS 14.2 14.62 3.25% 131.02     4841.77   16510.8
08/26/10 JCG 33.88 31.95 -6.00% -228.02       3642.28 16282.78
08/30/10 – 08/31/10 DCI 43.2 42.64 -1.25% -50.56 3233.92       16232.22
08/31/2010 – 09/01/10 LTXC 2.2 2.2 0.00% -8   4308.14     16224.22



Short Sale Virtual Portfolio
 
The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio, which is up 21% this year, is done in the same way as the Buy Virtual Portfolio. The only difference is that the Virtual Portfolio has three rotating accounts rather than four.
 
08/02/10 MNKD 7.33 7.12 3.00% 68.23 2733.43     8358.36
08/03/10 CTSH 63.4 61.55 3.00% 77.1   3007.07   8435.46
08/05/10 CRZO 22.70(DD, 22.50 and 22.90) 22.02 3.25% 53.12, 92.72 2826.15   2749.85 8581.3
08/10/10 FOSL 45.5 44.2 2.85% 77.8   3084.87   8659.1
08/11/10 CFN 22.90 (DD) 22.46 2.00% 90.92 2875.61   2799.31 8750.2
08/17/10 COT 6.63 6.5 2.00% 52.45   3137.32   8802.47
08/19/10 PETM 33.30(DD) 32 4.00% 205 2978.11   2901.81 9007.47
08/30/10 CSGS 18.52 18.16 2.00% 52.84   3190.16   9060.31
08/31/10 ENER 4.25 4.16 2.25% 53.38     2955.19 9113.69
 
Long Term Virtual Portfolio
 
 
Date of Entry Stock Entry Price Current Price % Change Fair Value Estimate
05/27/10 TSL 17.65 27.06 54% $30.00
06/04/10 GMCR 24.05 31.13 -29.45% $15.63
06/14/10 CAAS 18.3

14.85

-18.85%

$28.78
06/18/10 JWN 38.65 29.75

-23%

$52.00
06/25/10 JCI 27.5 27.75

0.9%

$46.25
07/16/10 PAYX 26 25.48 -2% $40.30
07/23/10 SPWRA 12.5 11.05 -12% $16.50
08/06/10 JACK 19.4 20.97 8%

$32.00

08/13/10 SBS 40 39.87 -0.3% $60.00
08/20/10 F 11.7 11.86 1.25% $20.00
 
 
Good Investing,
 
David Ristau 

 

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Comments


  1. David Ristau

    Oxen Alert – Portfolio Update, Upcoming Schedule 

    Hello all,

    I have just got done posting a new story about my portfolio that tracks our picks through August. We ended the month up 62% on the year from the beginning with our portfolio. We had a 5% increase month-over-month. Our Short Sale Portfolio was lights out with a 10% growth to make it 21% growth on the year. 

    Additionally, I have no new positions today. We have been having a bit of a struggle as of late with some picks. Taking the day to work on this and some other projects but definitely around.

    Tomorrow, we are going to have a pick bevy with some intraday trades, overnight, and midterm positions. It is going to be stellar.

    I will be out of the office on Friday for travel for Labor Day Weekend. 

    Good Investing,

    David Ristau

  2. amatta

    David, 
    What is the story with LCTX? It seems it beat and guided in-line, and its selling off 10% from our entry at 2.22! Are you holding for a bounce back?

  3. foolishtrader

    Some help decoding for the new guy please:
    For WATG  what do the 31.6 and 3240.16 values represent (I read what I think they are but I can not reconcile with other values)?
    If no close date like HNT is that position still open?
    No close dates on any of the short positions?

  4. David Ristau

    Amatta -

    I just exited it this morning when it was even.

    Foolish -

    Sorry about that. 31.60 was amound gained or lost. 3240.16 is the Account A’s value after the given trae.

    If you only see one day. Then, it means that I opened and closed the position in one day. The shorts are all the same. We do a lot of intraday trading with The Oxen Report.

  5. jthoma

    LTXC    out with a small loss hoped as day wore on it would rally but with the volume what it was did not appear likely- I smell fish- either somthing is wrong we don’t know or there are lots of people who cannot understand a cheap stock- still liked the play david!

  6. David Ristau

    Jthoma -

    Thanks. A lot of stocks not doing what I want as of late. We still went up 5% in August. Should have been more, but green is green. September hopefully will be much better.

  7. foolishtrader

    I am trying to see what is the best way to get real time trade recommendations.
    Is there a way to get an RSS feed just for Oxen Group posts that I can not find (though I admit to never using an RSS feed before)?
    Are email updates real time?

  8. David Ristau

    Foolish -

    Alerts are pretty much real time. I am not sure about RSS. I don’t even know how to use that. If you follow the wall, I post pretty much everything you would need to know.

    Let me know what questions I can answer or how to help.

  9. foolishtrader

    Hard to follow the wall during the work day but will try.   Is there one URL for the trade posts or is there a new one you start each day?
    Would be nice if the posts were most recent on top so to not have to scroll down after every refresh, or if written to remember your location on a refresh but that is a job for your techies.   PSW should consider different chat rooms for different areas.  Those are continuous feed so you can watch messages streaming in and insert your own comments.  Sort of like this comment page but continuously updated.  And they can sit on the side to not interfere with the rest of your screen.

  10. foolishtrader

    Also, you do send an email for each trade do you not?

  11. lflantheman

     David….posting your portfolio results is a very effective way to attract readers and commentary.  I like the way yours is set up.  In this regard you are a model for our other leaders.    

  12. David Ristau

    Foolish -

    Chat is hopefully coming. If I were in charge, we would have it. I do send an alert for each trade. Are you a premium member?

    Lflan -

    Thank you. Honesty and credibility are key to me.

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