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Archive for September, 2010

War Has Broken Out And Your Savings Are At Stake

Courtesy of Phoenix Capital Research

The first and most immediate item we need to note is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) currency intervention.

 

Prior to this, all currency interventions were generally indirect (the Fed’s QE program) or not generally promoted (the Swiss banks numerous attempts to buy Euros and suppress the Franc).

 

In contrast, the BoJ’s move was not only sudden, it was promoted.

 

Japan Finance Minister Noda: MOF Intervened In FX Markets

 

Japan’s government sold yen Wednesday, pushing the dollar up sharply. It was Japan’s first foreign exchange market intervention in more than six years, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said.

 

Noda said the ministry would take decisive steps, including intervention if needed. He said the intervention was aimed at curbing excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.

 

 

Moreover, Japan stated it would:

 

1)   Intervene more in the future if needed

2)   Use the funds from the intervention to provide liquidity to the stock markets

 

The move, while hinted at previously, was a bit “out of left field” (the BoJ had not intervened since 2004). The Japanese Yen is one of the primary carry trade currencies to borrow in (the US Dollar being the other). So Japan’s move was largely seen to be “pro-risk” resulting in the Nikkei spiking.

 

However, it marks a major turning point in the financial crisis. Going forward, the key issue for the financial markets will be currency interventions. Japan’s move can, in a sense, be seen as an open declaration of war between the BoJ, the Federal Reserve, and other Central Bankers.

 

Indeed, we can’t leave the European Central Banks out…
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Rahm Emanuel To Resign Today, To Begin Chicago Mayoral Bid

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

How many rats are left?

We will get you more, but it is pretty self-explanatory what is going on here.





Guest Post: The FED Cannot Keep Stocks Up

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

From Mike Krieger of KAM LP

What the future will hold is such a dramatic sharp burst to astonishing new price levels of several thousands of dollars.  This does not even require hyperinflation.  It is not likely that the United States would enter a hyperinflation mode.  The system would collapse long before that takes place.  The much more likely result will be a complete currency default with a replacement of a new currency.  This is one way government defaults by using a shell game so that the average person does not understand he was just taken to the cleaners.

- Martin A. Armstrong on Gold

The FED Cannot Keep Stocks Up

What a difference a month makes.  As I prepared to begin my Labor Day weekend in late August the financial media was abuzz with predictions of stock market doom.  You could barely read anything without being confronted with several references to the dreaded Hindenberg Omen and how the appearance of several of these had all but guaranteed an imminent stock market collapse.  There were plenty of reasons to be bearish.  The market performed horribly in August and the economy was clearly still in the dumps despite a continued endless propaganda to the contrary.  Nevertheless, the constant predictions of doom was indeed a great contrary indicator and barring some monster reversal today we are about to finished the month of September +10% in what is typically the worst month for stocks.  It is set to be the best September in 70 years. 

The truth of the matter is while the relentlessness and strength of the rally did surprise me a bit the fact that we bounced hard did not.  Ironically, the reason I thought this could happen is because I am SO bearish.  At the end of the day, if you are coming from the angle that I am you need to assume the stock market is a political tool for those in charge.  I have said this time and time again.  The manipulators cannot stop the cycles of markets any more than they can the cycles of nature in the end, but in the interim they can create a lot of problems and seriously damage your P&L if you do not know who you are up against.  When it is the system itself that is fighting for survival as it…
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POMO Ramp Concludes As Fed Buys Back A Disappointing $2.2 Billion, As Just $11.5 Billion Are Submitted

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Well, so much for that ramp: after spiking by well over 100 points, the DJIA is now down notably for the day. A big reason for this was that today’s POMO was a big disappointment: only $11.5 billion in higher yielding bonds were submitted to the Fed for repurchase, as it appears Primary Dealers would rather hold on to the best yielding paper currently available than hand it back to Brian Sack. This may have rather unpleasant implications for the Fed which will soon monetize across the curve, as it demonstrates that there is very little monetization interest in the long, and thus higher yielding, end, which in turn will force the Fed to monetize ever more short maturity debt. As a result, the Fed ended up purchasing a paltry $2.2 billion, and Apple Netflix, Amazon are already suffering as a result of the EOM profit taking starting to hit the quants, many of whom have been in unwind mode all September. With the next POMO now scheduled for an eternity from today, on October 5, today’s market action could be very volatile.




The Oxen Report: Midterm Trade in Agricultural Giant

Good morning to everyone. So sorry I am just getting to posting now. I had a slight issue with my power last night. The good news is that Worthington Industries was a gem at the open. I was out at 16.00 this morning. After an entry of 15.35, that gave me a gain of 4.30%. The Overnight Trade decision worked out very well for us. In addition to Worthington, we had a 2% gain on a Short Sale of Thor Industries (THO) yesterday.

The market is looking a bit bleak this morning, but I am working to find a new play for us today. In the meantime, feel free to ask me any questions as we get caught up.

 

Midterm Trade: Mosaic Co. (MOS)

Analysis: Starting next week, earnings of significance really start to pick up again for the end of the June – August Q2 earnings season. The week starts out with a Monday after close earnings report from Mosaic Co. (MOS). The company produces phosphate and potash fertilizers and is slated to have their best quarter in years – perhaps ever. Average EPS estimates come in at 0.72 vs. one year ago at 0.23, a gain of over 200%. The company has seen a large rise in their product as agricultural exports and farming has picked up this spring/summer season. 

The company additionally has a small nitrogen-based crop nutrient sector that is directly related to the price of natural gas. Natural gas is at an all-time low right now, and it is making the process of producing a nitrogen-based fertilizer very cheap. Natural gas in the June-August timeframe was at around $4.00 compared to $14.00 in the year prior. This price cut is huge for that portion of the Mosaic business.

In the last three months, the company has received an upgrade from Susquehanna, which is always a positive side. The company argues similar ideas to what I am saying and comments that the long-term sustainability and takeover possibilities for fertilizer companies makes them very attractive. Another nice commentary is that an independent research found that there is enough phosphate to make fertilizer for another 300-400 years. The USDA also commented that the average income of a farm has risen 24% in 2010. This is due to heavy demand overseas and rising demand in our own country.

With all…
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Prechter On Market Rally

Video (Part 1): Prechter On Market Rally

(Note: This interview was originally recorded on September 20, 2010)

In the two videos below, Robert Prechter talks to Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task and Henry Blodget about extreme readings in various indicators that support his bear-market forecast.

 

Video (Part 2): Prechter: Ominous Pattern in the DJIA

Get Up to Speed on Robert Prechter’s Latest Perspective — Download this Special FREE Report Now.


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Senator Franken Sends Letter To Bernanke, Bair And Holder Demanding Criminal Charges For All Responsible For Biggest Alleged Mortgage Fraud In History

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The biggest financial story which continues to get absolutely no mention on CNBC just got its latest multi-step escalation: Senator Al Franken has just blasted a letter to Tim Geithner, Shaun Donovan, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Eric Holder, John Walsh, Controller of the Currency, Sheila Bair, and, drumroll, Ben Bernanke, telling the recipients that “each of your agencies has an important role to play in addressing this egregious situation and holding all appropriate actors fully accountable. As such, I respectfully request that you collaborate to conduct a thorough investigation into the alleged misconduct. As part of this investigation, it is crucial that Ally and its employees are held fully accountable for any criminal misconduct.” Since if this pervasive mortgage fraud is more than just alleged, the stink will reach to the very top of places like JP Morgan, Ally, and possibly every single bank that has been in the mortgage origination business, something tells us that Ben Bernanke, whose job is precisely to protect the banks’ interests will not rush into any investigation for the duration of FASB’s existence. It gets better: “Additionally, all homeowners who may have experienced illegitimate foreclosure sales, those who have been forced to defend against illegitimate foreclosure actions, and those who have been harmed must be identified. These individuals must receive proper restitution and compensation, as provided for under the law.” And the punchline: “It is critical to confirm that no loans provided through the FHA or in conjunction with the HAMP program were associated with Ally’s misconduct.” Yes, oddly enough the government is about to lose even more credibility once it is discovered that it worked in collaboration with the biggest mortgage fraud scheme in history.

The letter concludes:

“Concerns have been rasied that Ally’s practices are not an anomaly in this industry, and that these bad practices are used by numerous other companies as well. Therefore, I request that you report on the actions your agencies are taking (and plan to take) to improve oversight of mortgage servicers overall. In particular please inform me of steps that you will take to ensure that similar misconduct is not currently occurring within other mortgage service companies and how future improper activity can best be prevented.”

We will spare you the Donkey Kong graphic today.

Full letter:

 




Brian Sack Is In The House: Today’s POMO Begins

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Today’s POMO of bonds maturing between 2021 and 2040, pretty much everything that still has any yield, has begun. Brian Sack is about to hand out around $4 billion to the Primary Dealers, as the Fed is hell bent on taking over as the second largest holder of US Treasuries within two weeks – Japan held $821 billion as of July, the Fed hold just over $800 billion and is buying about $10 billion a week. Which means that in about a month the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States will be the single biggest holder of debt issued by the United States of America! If that means that Netflix, BIDU and AMZN will need a billion to one stock split within the same time frame, so be it. For full results – same time, same place.




Next Steps: Visualizing Where Wall Street Went Next; Surprise – It Was Wall Street

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Dealbook has compiled one of the best visualizations of the tangled web of where Wall Street’s brass ends up after leaving their existing company a bailout burden to US taxpayers. Instead of facing perp walks, all the same players have merely engaged in the next round in the game of Wall Street musical chairs, and simply switched their corner offices: after all who is quite as qualified to lead the US economy into the abyss one more time? Is it any wonder then that as all the same people who got us in this mess are still busy collecting billions in bonuses, that the US economy and stock market will be led to yet another historic crash?

h/t Chris Whalen




 

Phil's Favorites

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner  

I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc.  The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in p...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Zero Hedge

Debt Ceiling 101, Santelli Sounds Off

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In an effort to reach the angry mob, CNBC's Rick Santelli goes all Sesame Street on the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).

...

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Chart School

ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).

Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...



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Market Montage

Average Age of U.S. Vehicles Hits Record 10.8 Years

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high.  Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...



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Insider Scoop

Research in Motion Surging after Prem Watsa Stake

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.

Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.

Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.

Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.

...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 1/27/2012

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...

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ETF Selector

Wall Street Party Hangover (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday

Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party.  The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.

The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...



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Option Review

Big Prints In Deutsche Bank Put Options

 

Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general! AA Money Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance. Previous week P&L - $400.00 We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium! FAS Money We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope. Previous week P&L - $4372.00...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: QE-cating

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating.  Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)

Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game.  More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline.  In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up.  I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect.  I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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