S&P CASE SHILLER: THE HOUSING DOUBLE DIP IS HERE
by ilene - November 30th, 2010 10:10 am
The Pragmatic Capitalist reports on the S&P CASE SHILLER: THE HOUSING DOUBLE DIP IS HERE. – Ilene
This morning’s Case Shiller data shows more of what we’ve been seeing in other housing data despite being a lagging indicator. Clearly, the weakness in the housing market is back:
“New York, November 30, 2010 – Data through September 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index declined 2.0% in the third quarter of 2010, after having risen 4.7% in the second quarter. Nationally, home prices are 1.5% below their year-earlier levels. In September, 18 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down; and only the two composites and five MSAs showed year-over-year gains. While housing prices are still above their spring 2009 lows, the end of the tax incentives and still active foreclosures appear to be weighing down the market.”
“The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home
Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 1.5% decline in the third quarter of 2010 over the third quarter of 2009. In September, the 10-City and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of +1.6% and +0.6%, respectively. These two indices are reported at a monthly frequency and September was the fourth consecutive month where the annual growth rates moderated from their prior month’s pace, confirming a clear deceleration in home price returns.”
Source: S&P
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Digg20 Statistics That Prove That Global Wealth Is Being Funneled Into The Hands Of The Elite – Leaving Most Of The Rest Of The World Wretchedly Poor
by ilene - November 30th, 2010 10:07 am
Michael Snyder provides "20 Statistics That Prove That Global Wealth Is Being Funneled Into The Hands Of The Elite – Leaving Most Of The Rest Of The World Wretchedly Poor." He argues that what we have now is a world dominated by a small group of ultra-wealthy elitists. The larger group of "middle managers" do their bidding and are paid well for it. Then we have workers, a larger group, but by far the largest group is the several billions of "useless eaters." - Ilene
Courtesy of Michael Snyder at Economic Collapse
Today global wealth is more highly concentrated in the hands of the elite than it ever has been at any other point in modern history. Once upon a time, the vast majority of the people in the world knew how to grow their own food, raise their own animals and take care of themselves. There weren’t many that were fabulously wealthy, but there was a quiet dignity in having land you could call your own or in having a skill that you could turn into a business. Sadly, over the past several decades an increasingly growing percentage of agricultural land has been gobbled up by big corporations and by corrupt governments. Hundreds of millions of people have been pushed off their land and into highly concentrated urban areas.
Meanwhile, it has become increasingly difficult to start a business of your own as monolithic global corporations have come to dominate nearly every sector of the world economy. So more people than ever around the world are forced to work for "the system" just to make a living. At the same time, those at the very top of the food chain (the elite) have spent decades rigging the system to ensure that increasing amounts of wealth will continue to flow into their pockets. So now in 2010 we have a global system where a few elitists at the top are insanely wealthy while about half the people living on earth are wretchedly poor.
There are very few nations around the world that have not been almost entirely plundered by the global elite. When the elite speak of "investing" in poor countries, what they really mean is taking control of the land, water, oil and other natural resources. In dozens of nations around the world today, big global corporations are stripping fabulous amounts of wealth out of the…
Consumer Confidence At 54.1 On Expectations Of 53.0, Prior Revised Lower To 49.9
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 10:02 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
The propaganda crew is out in full force today.We expect a presidential address on how Americans are delighted that Europe is disintegrating, that Ireland is on the verge of civil disobedience, that jobless benefits are expiring and that one can barter a roll of toiler paper for a house.
Some more irrelevant numbers:
- Jobs Plentiful: 4 vs. Prev. 3.5
- Jobs Hard to Get: 46.5 vs. Prev. 46.1
- Inflation: 5.1% vs. (Prev. 5.0%)
Chicago PMI At 62.5 Vs Expectations Of 59.9, And Previous Print Of 60.6
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 9:50 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
The Chicago PMI came at 304,955. Not really, but the index whose New Orders came at the highest since May 2007 has about as much credibility as anything out of the BLS these days. US Chicago PMI (Nov) M/M 62.5 vs. Exp. 59.9 (Prev. 60.6), highest since April 2010
PMI Components
- Employment: 56.3 vs. Prev. 54.6
- New Orders: 67.2 vs. Prev. 65.0, highest since May 2007
- Prices Paid: 70.7 vs. Prev. 68.9, highest since April 2010
- Production: 71.3 vs. Prev. 69.8, highest since April 2005
Yes, the prices paid surging means margings are taking, but who cares. After all, there are headlines to fudge R2D2′s fuzzy logic with.
After The Flash Crash, The Slow Motion Crash: The Disappearance Of Term Markets As Unsecured Lending Freezes
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 9:39 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
From Nic Lenoir
After sitting all day on supports yesterday, we were graced by an afternoon rally courtesy of a double P.O.M.O. by the Fed. These liquidity injections have so far maintained us above the 1,170/1,172 neckline of a potential H&S pattern as well as the 50-dma. As I have long highlighted, following my friend Julian Brigden’s lead, financial asset prices since the dotcom bust have pretty much been a function of the global liquidity expressed in USD in the system worldwide. One could wonder why we are not through the roof in equity markets with the Fed now actively expanding the monetary base again. Well… the problem is the USD rally. Even in the face of Europe announcing it is joining the monetization frenzy allowing Irish bondholders to still be promised face values and socializing the haircut via currency devaluation, financial assets are struggling to catch a bid as the USD rally is eroding non-USD liquidity when expressed in USD. In a sense if the USD rallies it basically negates all the effect of QE 2.0 on asset prices… sorry Ben!
Technically I have been calling for a bottoming in fixed income over the past couple weeks, and the more constructive price action is definitely starting to shape up. We had initially recommended starting to get long in Schatz as the longer end was under pressure, but it now seems that even longer durations are catching a bid. The 10Y future chart attached shows that if TYH1 bypasses the 124-30 resistance the market will accelerate dramatically. Until then we remain bullish yet cautious.
Gold is back up challenging the 1,388/1,390 area which corresponds to the second shoulder of a H&S pattern. If that level is bypassed new highs are in the cards, but so far it is being held back by USD strength despite fundamentals being very favorable. We need precious metals to de-correlate from the USD or the USD to trade a bit weaker to see this materialize. On the flip size if we traded below the 50-dma currently at 1347 then we risk to go trigger that H&S breaking through 1,327.
In similar fashion to equities, copper which is an excellent indicator of the risk on / risk off trade is sitting right above the support of the bullish trend. A break is most likely to coincide with…
THE BALANCE SHEET RECESSION IN PERSPECTIVE
by ilene - November 30th, 2010 9:24 am
Pragcap, via Northern Trust, puts "THE BALANCE SHEET RECESSION IN PERSPECTIVE." Problems: decreased private sector spending leading to more joblessness, in a vicious circle — less spending, less jobs, less spending, and so on. - Ilene
The following note from Northern Trust helps put the balance sheet
“The reduction in total private sector debt (businesses and households) is also significant and compares closely with the situation after the 1990-91 recession (see Chart 3). Private sector debt as a percent of GDP peaked in the first quarter of 2009 (177.8%), with the second quarter reading at 167.9%. A similar reduction in the 1990s was spread over nearly four years. This sharp decline in consumer and business sector spending has resulted in the elevated jobless rate. These numbers are being tracked closely for an early confirmation of improving conditions. It is not a mere coincidence that economic growth gathered steam only after private sector credit growth was visible following the 1990-91 recession.”
Source: Northern Trust
Case Shiller Confirms House Market Deterioration Accelerates
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 9:14 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
The Case Shiller Home Price index declined to 145.47% YoY compared to 146.64 previously. The Composite-20 Index increased 0.59% YOY on expectations of a 1.0% Increase, prices in Q3 dropped by 2.0%, with a 0.8% drop in September. In absolute terms, the Composite-20 index is back to December 2007 levels. Then again, this is data as of September so it merely confirms that the housing double dip as of three months ago was accelerating. From the release: “Another weak report; weaker than last month. The national index is down 1.5% from the third quarter of last year and 15 of 20 cities are down over the last 12 months. Other than Tampa, FL, there are no new lows this month but many analysts will argue that a double dip will be confirmed before Spring. While some of the bad numbers may reflect the end of the government’s tax incentive for first time homebuyers, there are other problems weighing on the housing market.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The national economy is certainly the number one issue for housing. Additionally, there is a large supply of houses on the market and further, hidden, supply due to delinquent mortgages, pending foreclosures or vacant homes. New construction is running at less than half the pace needed to meet normal demand, so a sustained recovery could be a ways off.” And that’s from S&P.
An absolute view of the index:
And a YoY Change comparison:
The housing re-recession is here.
As Euro Tumbles, Gold Squeeze Gets Vicious
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 8:42 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
Someone with a long euros/short gold position was just carted out feet first. Our condolences to Blythe and the rest of the RICO defense crew. And yes, no expert networks foresaw or were consulted on this latest squeeze. If those ever louder rumors that a bank is standing for December delivery end up being true, today’s move will be an appetizer to a 10-fold bigger move.
Frontrunning: November 30
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 8:38 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
- Spanish Banks Face Funding Hurdle Amid Bailout Threat (Bloomberg)
- U.S. Senators Press for Vote on China Currency Bill (Reuters)
- CFTC to unveil position limit plan Dec 16 (Reuters)
- Democrats to Test Republican Mettle With Tax-Cut Vote (Bloomberg)
- Irish Banks Remain on a Tightrope (FT)
- North Korea Details Nuclear Program Amid Tension (Reuters)
- European Companies With $700 Billion Set to Make Deals (Bloomberg)
- China Surges Ahead on Clean Energy Investment (FT)
- EU growth funds lie idle under red tape (FT)
- Roubini Says Portugal Likely to Need Bailout (Reuters)
- Funding for CFPB may not be sufficient, Bullard says (Housing Wire)
- Is the Great Bond Bull Market finally coming to an end? (Market Watch)
- Economists’ Grail: A Post-Crash Model (WSJ)
Economic Highlights:
- Euro-Zone CPI Estimate for November 1.9% y/y – in line with expectations. Consensus 1.9%. Previous 1.9%.
- Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate for October 10.1% – in line with expectations. Consensus 10.1%. Previous 10.0%.
- Germany Unemployment Change for November -9k – lower than expected. Consensus -20k. Previous -3k.
- Germany Unemployment Rate (s.a) for November 7.5% – in line with expectations. Consensus 7.5%. Previous 7.5%.
- France Producer Prices for October 0.8% m/m 4.3% y/y – higher than expected. Consensus 0.4% m/m 4.1% y/y. Previous 0.3% m/m 4.2% y/y.
- Italy CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) for November 0.0% m/m 1.7% y/y – lower than expected. Consensus 0.1% m/m 1.8% y/y. Previous 0.2% m/m 1.7% y/y.
- Italy CPI – EU Harmonized for November -0.1% m/m 1.8% y/y – lower than expected. Consensus 0.1% m/m 2.0% y/y. Previous 0.7% m/m 2.0% y/y.
- Italy Unemployment Rate (SA) for October 8.6% – higher than expected. Consensus 8.4%. Previous 8.3%.
- Norway Credit Indicator Growth for October 5.4% y/y – higher than expected. Consensus 5.0% y/y. Previous 5.1% y/y.
- Norway Retail sales – vol sa for October 0.1% m/m -0.5% y/y – lower than expected. Consensus 0.2% m/m 2.4% y/y. Previous 1.3% m/m 3.0% y/y.
- Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator for October 1.716. Previous 1.695.
- Sweden Wages – Non-Manual Workers for September 1.5%. Previous 1.3%.
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for November -21 – lower than expected. Consensus -19. Previous -19.
Gold In Euros Breaks Out, As Inedible Metal Hits All Time Highs In Europe
by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 8:19 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
With all the debate over which European country will default first, many are reminded that precious yellow metals, especially in physical form (and perhaps due to their inedibility), never default. This morning Europeans once again are reminded that the best performing asset in 2010, on an absolute and relative basis, continues to be gold, as EUR-denominated gold passes its all time high yet again. Luckily some of them have taken our advice over the past 2 years to move away from paper assets and into something tangible. For everyone else, may we suggest some ketchup with that semi-illegal €500 euro bill. Next up: look for a run at all European precious metal retailers and distributors just like in May and June, and more positive pricing feedback loops now that a defeated Blythe Masters is expecting her pink slip to arrive any minute.
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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