Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

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Phil, thanks for the call on the SKF puts earlier, I'm riding that horsie downhill right now, giddyup!

- MrMocha

Phil…..You have absolutely NAILED IT! This is not a bull market, nor is it a bear market. It is a Rangeish market, and it's going to stay that way for a long time (the latter is my prediction. I love the word. What I love more is the fact that I've found someone with some investing intelligence greater than mine who can assist me in playing this type of market. Your description today of how it's playing out is right on. I predict some media ‘guru' will steal your word and your description within the next few days and we'll all get to read about what ‘they' discovered about this market. Thanks Phil!

- Iflantheman

Brilliant covering of the arcane, the profane , but never the mundane! Easy to understand the reason for your huge following, Phil, and why you have become a must read on my daily agenda. Please accept my complete appreciation.

- Seeking Truth

Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

- dclark41

Phil, I was so impressed with the personal note in the comments that I went ahead and paid for a months trial of premium that I have been on the fence for awhile about. Just reading the comments makes me already glad for the purchase.

- Smasher

Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much).

- Jomptien

Being a bear is easy (and I am not convinced we are doing all that well on the whole as an economy), but one cannot fight the trend (didn't Phil say that a while ago)? Just cover, make 5-10-15-20% and move on. It really does add up by chipping away. All I can say is I am back to 2007 levels in my account b'f the crash with this run up and some very nice help on this board….so kudos to us (and me!!)…

- Pharmboy

It is amazing how much confidence you engender, Phil………..I knew the 1% a day trades and repeated often were possible as I had done in stretches, and I knew kill zone trades were also possible and 5% to 10% returns per month were very possible with practice, experience and smart risk management all without having to take a lot of risk, but I guess I was talking to the disbelievers and since I have dropped them into my 'why bother to try to explain it' file and come over to the dark side at PSW I feel soooo much more content not only with the returns, but with the company and a comments and the obvious opportunity to learn and learn and learn some more. It all helps the mental and emotional discipline of the trading too. So thanks again.

- Roro

Phil, I don't know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I'm up significantly in my portfolio and I've never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.

- thechaser

On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

- Iflantheman

Peter D: great write-up for Short Strangles, Part 1, looking forward to Part 2, particularly the adjustment part.

- RMM

Phil: I am always able to figure out your trades, including the rational when put in the right context of previous comments, etc. Keep doing what you're doing. It is much appreciated, and invaluable. Your hit rate of successful trades has been very high in my 1.5 months as a member, but even more importantly is your teaching of how to repair and DD positions that haven't gone your way yet. As with most members, we all have our ‘pet' trading interests, and learning how to think about trading is much more important than a specific trade, which could see the conditions behind it change an hour later. This is the classic case, of ‘Teach us to Fish', rather than just giving us a fish once in a while. Thank you!

- Neverworkagain

I would like to thank Phil and PSW crew for the insight and assistance (even the liberals). In December I initiated long stock positions buying stock, writing calls and puts in AAPL, WFR and CHK (scaling in and out). Over the last week I have been trimming back my positions selling stock and taking out my callers and putters. I am now back to my initial 25% position that I started with in December. However this time, my cost basis on shares AAPL, WFR, and CHK is $0! With money to spare from those positions.

- Texasmotion

Nice intraday trading calls this week Phil. You have me hooked on trading SPY options analogously to your DIA moves. I paid some tuition the last few weeks but I think I have the hang of it. Don't be greedy and be happy with 0.05 to 0.10 and sometimes you're lucky with much bigger moves. Thanks for the training!

- TmDecay

GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

- lflantheman

Phil - I know I am small change compared to most others members, but I just wanted to let you know that during the last two weeks with the shorts you and others suggested I have 6 winners and 5 losers. My losers were small because I tried to follow your guidelines as best I could. On the other hand my winners on average were around 50%. Consequently, I am up $2000 in 14 days. Thank you for your patience and help. I think I am making progress getting rid of some of my poor trading habits of the past!

- DCalrk41

Phil: I have 263 positions - 70% in options ( balance stocks) in three portfolios with a value of 3 mil. YTD profit is about $750,000. Thanks!

- Gel1

Phil: That NFLX call was awesome. The speed at which NFLX options decayed was precipitous. The blow out spike that allowed me to double and roll my callers to 190(!) and the ridiculous 170 weeklies @3.50 a day away from Op-Ex. The gains I realized in that trade floored me when I took a long at my portfolio value on Friday. What a great way to start the 3rd Quarter.

- Kinkistyle

I did the same thing via your logic (sold puts that is). I glanced one time and they were already up 15% which is considered a good return for an overnight hold in most circles. This is PSW though and to us it's just another day…

- Kwan

You guys gotta give it to phil–the voice of reason yesterday, last nite and this morning.

- Corleone

Oxen (directly) and Wilkinson (indirectly) are making me a great day trader! Props to Andrew for another little nugget last night: HIG. $20 Dec calls paid 6% quickly this morning. And helloooo STJ - a few days, but nice pick nonetheless - esp with early cover premium.

- Dstillwe

Phil Thank you very much, I appreciate your help and wisdom.

- CdsdpDean

Great calls this week!

- SNS1

Peter D, Just a note of thanks. Eight weeks ago, I entered my first RUT strangles, when the RUT was at 625. Tomorrow, I will let them expire, with the RUT at 625 (give or take). I didn't care when the RUT went to 650, nor when it dropped to 590. Easiest, no touch money I've made in a long time.

- Judahbenhur

Phil - I'm with you just little bit longer than a month and you can not imagine how happy I am now, and not just because my P/L improved ( and I'm sure that it will be even better), but I found that the worst thing in trader's carrier is a LONELINESS. Here I found so many bright good guys, I looked for this service for years. THANK YOU AND TAKE GOOD CARE OF YOURSELF BECAUSE I PLAN TO STAY HERE AND RIDE THIS CREASY MARKET WITH YOU FOR ANOTHER 20-30 YEARS

- Tchayipov

Thanks Phil, your note at the close was responsible for making those silly GOOG sellers pay for my NYC sojourn, nice!!

- zeroxzero

Thank God for Phil. A few months ago (April) I didn´t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil´s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio. When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked. Now I am putting on 5:1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water.

- jmm1951

Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,

- RMM

Against all prognostics (bears) Phil pointed in the morning the correct direction, and in middle of day he pointed the possible move to 2.5% Incredible… I'm starting to serious believe on the program trading and the human nature behind the programing those "trade-bots".

- Spider

Phil - I am 3 month follower and shout a big thanks for all the good advice and training. I read all the materials and posts as suggested. I am retired CFO and took over my investments 2 years ago from broker after frustration with returns. I followed some conservative advice for retirees and have 60% bonds currently in a 5m portfolio. I had been doing covered calls on my stocks to boost returns and slowly am getting more aggressive after following your site and my son who has been with you for 6 months. I allocated 1.5m to stocks and am scaling up from 30%. I did some of the trades suggested in early June using Aug & Oct buy/writes on CSCO, WMT, MON, WFR, DO in addition to calls on XOM, CVX, PEP, PG, WM, T that I owned. Most are doing very well (4-24%) in 60 days. My good problem is that instead of getting longer, I will be making 6% quickly (50% plus annualized) and getting called away on many positions. What would you advise for getting long again. Thanks again for such a great job advising all of us!

- TXChili

Archive for November, 2010

Timid Tuesday – Is it Safe?

by Phil - November 30th, 2010 8:13 am

QQQQ WEEKLY Is it safe?

Is what safe?
Is it safe?
I don’t know what you mean. I can’t tell you something’s safe or not, unless I know specifically what you’re talking about.
Is it safe?
Tell me what the "it" refers to.
Is it safe?
Yes, it’s safe, it’s very safe, it’s so safe you wouldn’t believe it.
Is it safe?
No. It’s not safe, it’s… very dangerous, be careful.

One could only wish we could torture the MSM pundits the way the evil dentist tortured Dustin Hoffman in Marathon Man - these guys cannot give us a straight answer and, frankly, we’re not even sure what the question is anymore. Is it safe to buy bonds? Is it safe to buy stocks? Is our currency safe? Are commodities safe?

All this uncertainty is certainly boosting gold and, although I am no fan of gold speculation, we did take a gold hedge in last Tuesday’s Alert to Members and on Wednesday our market hedge was a 500% hedge on the Russell that goes 100% in the money right about 730. Monday’s upside Alert play was a 1,000% payoff on FAS that’s already all in the money – it’s a crazy market when your longs and your shorts work at the same time!

That’s the sort of thing that gave us the confidence to restart the "$10,000 to $50,000 by Jan 21st" virtual portfolio as we were halfway to goal at $26,000 when we cashed out in early October. We didn’t like the market then for directional plays and we still don’t but now we’re taking the opportunity to practice our short-term trading techniques in this choppy market. As you can see from David Fry’s Nasdaq chart above, we’re in a critical zone and the chips are literally flying every which way – our job is just to reach in and grab a few.

Yesterday we focused on the DIA (always a favorite) $112 calls, which opened at .94 and we took 20 at the open and stopped out with a quick .10 loss ($200) just 10 minutes later as the Dow failed to hold 11,000. We took a re-load with 30 at .75 at 11:12, stuck out the dip to .70 and cashed back out at $1.05, for a very nice $900 gain on our second attempt. We…

Join Member's Chat - 223 Comments Here »

Contagion Continues With Belgian CDS Spreads Surging Following Weak 3/6 Month Bill Auction, EURUSD Drops Under 1.30

by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 8:10 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The sovereign widening wave continues to push away from the periphery and deeper into the eurocore. While yesterday it was Italy’s turn to see its spreads surge, today it is Belgium. At last check the country of monk ale and fries is flirting with 200 bps, following a 3/6 month auction of €2.8 billion bonds which was (not very) surprisingly weak: the 3-month T-Bill auction for €1.425bln came at a plunging bid/cover of 1.48 vs. 3.52 previously even as the yield jumped to 0.864% from 0.784% previously, while the 6-month €1.370 billion Bill also experienced a slump in its bid/cover of 1.54 vs. Prev. 2.67, yielding 1.000% vs. 0.901% previously. Net result widespread widening, with Italy once again taking the head at 25 bps wider to 272 bps (see chart). The bad news is that the EURUSD has once again collapsed to below 1.30, after which the next stop is John Taylor’s (and certainly not John Stolper’s) 1.26 target. The only good news is that just like in the US, stocks continue to be resilient in the face of massive sovereign onslaught. This will not last, to quote Market News: “Brokers suggest there is a degree of asset re-allocation taking place, where shares have become a relatively less risky asset class, while Eurozone government bond yields have ballooned. It’s an interesting idea, but also looking at yield returns, you could argue that funds may start to flow from equities to government bonds in Europe given that yields have become quite comparable.” In other words, very soon the Fed will need to “stabilize” not only US stock prices but European ones as well.

EURUSD sub 1.30

And some CDS charts – G8 countries ex Canada and Russia:

And G8 and Western Europe:

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Daily Highlights: 11.30.2010

by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 7:58 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Asian stock markets were mostly lower Tuesday on Europe’s debt woes.
China central banker: Loose monetary policy must change.
Euro-zone economic sentiment indicator rose to 105.3 in Nov from 103.8 in October.
Euro drops below $1.30 for first time since mid-September amid sov.debt fears.
German unemployment sinks again in November as economic rebound continues.
Fed bought $7.226B in Treasury debt on Monday, the tenth operation of QE2.
India’s economy grew 8.9% in July-Sept quarter from year ago.
Japan Unemployment rises, output falls, showing risk economy may contract.
North Korea confirms it has uranium-enrichment facility.
Oil hovers below $86 in Asia as traders eye US crude inventory reports.
Poland’s economy picks up speed, growing 4.2% on the year in Q3.
South Korea’s industrial output rises 13.5% in Oct – rose less than estimated.
Spain’s banks face $111B funding hurdle in 2011 amid bailout threat.
Treasuries rise for third day on concern European debt crisis will spread.
ABB to buy Baldor Electric for $63.5/sh, transaction valued at $4.2B, incl $1.1B in debt.
ACS’s $3.6B bid for Hochtief backed by German financial regulator.
Altera reaffirmed Q4 revenue est of $543.3-559.1M vs. cons f’cast of $543.8M.
Avon Products to sell $290M in Senior notes in private placement.
Bank of Ireland requires an additional €2+B in capital early next year.
Cardinal Health buys Chinese drug distributor, Zuellig Pharma, for $470M.
Google likely to acquire closely held online discounter Groupon for $6B.
HP plans to sell $2B of debt to repay commercial paper borrowings.
Husky Energy to buy oil and gas properties worth $841M in W. Canada from Exxon.
Interactive Brokers Group declared a special dividend of $1.79/sh.
Kraft Foods announces cash debt tender offers for up to $1B.
Microsoft sells 2.5M if its Kinect motion-sensing video game controller in 25 days.
Lukoil posts $2.8B in Q3 net profit, 40% higher than year before due to strong sales.
Petronas to pay $9.5B shell-sized dividend as oil production falls.
Thor Inds misses by $0.10, posts Q1 EPS of $0.44. Revs rose 20.7% to $606.7M.
Toyota to recall about 650,000 Prius hybrids on coolant pump defect.
Wal-Mart offered $2.32B to buy 51% of South Africa’s Massmart Holdings.

Economic Calendar: Data on Case-Shiller 20-city Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence.

Earnings Calendar: BKS, BSDM, NBG, OVTI, SNDA, TSL, UTI, XJT.

RECENT RATING ACTIONS
SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY PLC (STX)
NYSE EURONEXT (NYX)
SUPERIOR ENERGY…

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High Yield update…Harvesting remaining holdings

by Chart School - November 30th, 2010 7:49 am

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Due to a break of rising support, harvested 50% of the high yield funds on 11/17 at (2), in the chart below. (see post here). See update on these high yield funds below.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Bought the high yield funds on a break above the 50-ema at (1). Harvested half the positions on a break of support at (2) and am now harvesting the remainder of positions due to a break below the 50-ema.

Will be interesting to see if these funds find support at the April highs. Since 11/5, these funds have declined more than the 500 Index. In the past, this has not been a good sign for equities. Some day the high yields will break back above the 50-ema, when they do I will repurchase!

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Today’s Economic Data Highlights

by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 7:42 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Home prices, Chicago purchasing managers’ index, and the Conference Board’s confidence index, plus Chairman Bernanke in an informal Q&A setting. POMO today buys $6-8 billion. Two regional Fed presidents are also scheduled to speak (Kocherlakota at 12:30; Lacker at 19:00).….

9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for Sep…another decline? This index has started to give back some of the increase posted during the spring quarter, when the homebuyer tax credit was in place. Most analysts expect another decline.
GS -0.5%; median forecast (of 18): -0.4%, ranging from -0.72% to +0.1%; last -0.28%.

9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index for Nov…moderation? This index has run stronger than the national ISM manufacturing index in recent months, presumably due to the larger weight that auto-related production has in this region. We expect it to remain firm.
GS: 60; median forecast (of 63): 59.9, ranging from 55 to 62.1; last 60.6.

10:00: Conference Board confidence index for Nov…a modest increase? This index is likely to move up if the Reuters/University of Michigan results are any indication. As usual, we will look at the gap between those saying jobs are plentiful and those saying they are hard to get. In October it widened to -42.6 from -42.0 in September. The cycle low was -46.1 in November, 2009.
GS: median forecast (of 78): 53, ranging from 50 to 60; last 50.2.

11:00: POMO… Brian Sack buys $6-8 billion worth of 12/31/2014 – 5/31/2016 bonds (and Netflix)

15:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to business leaders on “Conversation on the Economy”….at Ohio State University. There will be no prepared text, but there will be Q&A. Given the unstructured nature of this appearance, it is highly unlikely to contain significant news on the Fed’s intentions or perceptions about the economy, though specific comments could elicit a market reaction.

17:00: ABC consumer comfort index…It’s been bouncing between -47 and -45 lately, last at -47. Two of the three economists who forecast this expect a one-point improvement; the third sees no change.

compiled via Goldman Sachs and ZH

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MeeT THe CoNTaGioN

by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 7:30 am

Courtesy of williambanzai7

Today’s financial news is plastered with the words “EURO Contagion.” Here is what it looks like…

I took a vector tracing of a viral epidemic and adapted it to what we know about the Euro contagion. Your suggested improvements are welcome…

NYT

Source: NYT

CON

CONT

ROM

IMF

CART

NGNG

MIN

Remain calm. Everything is under control…

Should any of this be a surprise to anyone? Not!

WB7

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Vivian Lewis Says It’s All About the Dollar

by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 6:48 am

Courtesy of madhedgefundtrader

Vivian Lewis of Global-Investing on Hedge Fund Radio. I managed to catch up with Vivian Lewis, the globetrotting publisher of www.Global-Investing.com, one of the oldest international investment newsletters in the industry. She was kind enough to grant me 40 minutes for a wide ranging interview for Hedge Fund Radio which left no corner of the globe untouched. The Renaissance woman reads no less than six languages, English, French German Russian, Dutch, and Portuguese, which she successfully puts to use finding out of the way foreign stock picks.

Vivian is bullish on the US dollar, despite the vast majority of traders happily positioning for the decline and fall of Uncle Buck. It’s simply a matter of betting on the simultaneous strengthening of the US economy and a slowdown in Europe. Diverging tax and monetary policies on the continent are preventing them from getting their act together. The “PIIGS” sovereign debt crisis is throwing the fat on the fire. The ETF (UUP) is her preferred vehicle here, which is long the dollar against a basket of currencies. My pick is the double leveraged version against the Euro, the (EUO) ETF. Vivian thinks that a strong dollar could lead to a broader flight from risk globally.

A scan of a Portuguese language news service enabled her to stumble across one winner, Portugal Telecom (PT), which is tying up with Brazil’s privately held Oi to give it a share in the fastest growing telecommunications market in Latin America. This is no mean feat, as Portugal has been tarred with the “PIIGS” brush, and is not exactly attracting a lot of risk capital these days.

She is being cautious on her sector picks in Brazil (EWZ) because a rapidly appreciating currency, the Real, is eroding their export competitiveness. Meat packers and breweries are good examples of no-go areas. Utilities are attractive because they sell purely into the domestic market. The Brazilian government is attempting to stem the Real’s ascent by slapping a 10% tax on inward foreign investment, so far to no avail.

Vivian is coming off of a fabulous year, having moved her readers into the hottest emerging markets earlier than most. For her, it was simply a cherry picking exercise. She zeroed in on Thailand (TF) because it had good quality companies paying high dividends that had been beaten to hell by political instability and…

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Trade Against The 90% That Lose Money 30th Nov

by Zero Hedge - November 30th, 2010 2:49 am

Courtesy of Pivotfarm

Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this offers very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.

So what are the signals?

Strong Short 66% Retail Longs

Short 60% Retail Longs

Long 60% Retail Shorts

Strong Long 66% Retail Shorts

We are looking for 60%+ (Ideally for best opportunities 66%+) of retail traders to be trading either long or short a currency pair, we then look for opportunities to fade (trade against) this group. For example if 72.99% of traders are long the USD/CHF we look for opportunities to short that pair. The pairs that we feel offer the highest opportunity for success are described in the Strong Short and Strong Long areas.

What’s New Today? No dramatic shifts from yesterdays positioning. USDJP#000000;”>Y remains in the Strong short zone, even with consistent up days recently this has been a big surprise and an anomaly in the data.

#000000;”>Provided by Pivotfarm – Click here to learn about Technical Confluence

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Sabrient Divers – 11/30/2010

by Sabrient - November 30th, 2010 12:00 am

Top 5 Divers
Stock	Rating	Analysis
ATPG	STRONGSELL	With projected value going down even more quickly than their recent historical earnings, ATP Oil & Gas is not looking good.
ALSK	SELL	Recent earnings changes for Alaska Communications are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation.
ABB	SELL	ABB has shown a significant decrease in recent earnings health, and analysts are also becoming increasingly skeptical about near-term prospects.
ACOR	STRONGSELL	Analysts are lowering long-term growth expectations for Acorda, and showing agreement about short-term earnings declines as well.
AKS	SELL	We project an unfortunate decrease in value for AK Steel, and we’re not alone in this opinion as other analysts are also reducing expectations.

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Sabrient Risers – 11/30/2010

by Sabrient - November 30th, 2010 12:00 am

Top 5 Risers
Stock	Rating	Analysis
ALB	STRONGBUY	The long term projected growth rate for Albemarle is rising, and this is happenening at a time when historical earnings have already increased significantly.
AFL	BUY	The recent earnings history for AFLAC shows singnificant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.
AMR	STRONGBUY	AMR has shown significant advances in achieving substantial earnings growth recently, and analysts also appear confident these higher earnings will continue to grow in the near future.
RNT	BUY	Aaron Rents has shown a remarkable increase in projected value recently, with the majority of analysts expecting higher than previously expected earnings.
AUO	BUY	An increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make AU Optronics a good prospect for high returns.

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Phil's Favorites

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

January 27th, 2012 1:52 pm

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner

I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc. The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in p...

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

January 27th, 2012 1:40 pm

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Zero Hedge

Debt Ceiling 101, Santelli Sounds Off

January 27th, 2012 12:55 pm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In an effort to reach the angry mob, CNBC's Rick Santelli goes all Sesame Street on the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).

...

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Chart School

ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further

January 27th, 2012 12:35 pm

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).

Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...

Market Montage

Average Age of U.S. Vehicles Hits Record 10.8 Years

January 27th, 2012 11:15 am

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high. Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...

Insider Scoop

Research in Motion Surging after Prem Watsa Stake

January 27th, 2012 10:05 am

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.

Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.

Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.

Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.

...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 1/27/2012

January 27th, 2012 12:00 am

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...

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ETF Selector

Wall Street Party Hangover (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GLD)

January 26th, 2012 6:16 pm

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday

Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party. The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.

The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...

Option Review

Big Prints In Deutsche Bank Put Options

January 26th, 2012 1:38 pm

Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI

...

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2012

January 23rd, 2012 8:56 am

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

January 22nd, 2012 10:09 pm

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general! AA Money Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance. Previous week P&L - $400.00 We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium! FAS Money We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope. Previous week P&L - $4372.00...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: QE-cating

January 22nd, 2012 2:52 am

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating. Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)

Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

January 18th, 2012 1:09 am

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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