Archive for 2010

Swing trading virtual portfolio – week of August 2nd, 2010

This post is for live trades and daily comments. PLease click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

 

Optrader 





Financial Reform Bill as Mere Inconvenience

Financial Reform Bill as Mere Inconvenience

Courtesy of Joshua M. Brown, The Reformed Broker  

This cartoon caught my eye last week.  If you stare at the driver real hard, you can probably picture your favorite banker friend or Wall Street lawyer friend.

Whatevs, we knew that no matter how much outrage there was, the world would pretty much revert back to the natural order of things eventually.  The Financial Reform Bill is a speeding ticket, the reckless driver is still pushing a luxury sexwagon.

Source:

Cartoons of the Week (TIME)


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Four Deformations of the Apocalypse

Here’s an interesting article in the NY Times that has been making the internet rounds.  David Stockman writes about how the Republican party destroyed the American economy. – Ilene 

Barry Ritholtz made this comment in summarizing the article: 

In short, the party became more focused on Politics than Policy.

I bring this up as an intro to David Stockman’s brutal critique of Republican fiscal policy. Stockman was the director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. His NYT OpEd — subhed: How the GOP Destroyed the US economy — perfectly summarizes the most legitimate critiques of decades of GOP economic policy.

I can sum it up thusly: Whereas the Democrats have no economic policy, the Republicans have a very bad one.

Four Deformations of the Apocalypse

money printing By DAVID STOCKMAN, NY Times 

Excerpts: 

This approach has not simply made a mockery of traditional party ideals. It has also led to the serial financial bubbles and Wall Street depredations that have crippled our economy. More specifically, the new policy doctrines have caused four great deformations of the national economy, and modern Republicans have turned a blind eye to each one.

The first of these started when the Nixon administration defaulted on American obligations under the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement to balance our accounts with the world. Now, since we have lived beyond our means as a nation for nearly 40 years, our cumulative current-account deficit — the combined shortfall on our trade in goods, services and income — has reached nearly $8 trillion. That’s borrowed prosperity on an epic scale.

[...]

The second unhappy change in the American economy has been the extraordinary growth of our public debt. 

[...]

The third ominous change in the American economy has been the vast, unproductive expansion of our financial sector. Here, Republicans have been oblivious to the grave danger of flooding financial markets with freely printed money and, at the same time, removing traditional restrictions on leverage and speculation. As a result, the combined assets of conventional banks and the so-called shadow banking system (including investment banks and finance companies) grew from a mere $500 billion in 1970 to $30 trillion by September 2008.

But the trillion-dollar conglomerates that inhabit this new financial world are not free enterprises. They are rather wards of the state, extracting billions from the economy with a lot of pointless speculation in stocks, bonds, commodities and derivatives. They could
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Swing trading virtual portfolio – Updated P&L as of July 31st 2010

The last 2 months have been very good for our virtual portfolio! In June and July we were up 60.61% for a 3% risk per trade, and 40.41% for a 2% risk.

Year-to-date, the virtual portfolio is now up 130% for 3% risk, and 86% for 2% risk! More if you compound results. Last month we had 20 profitable trades, and 10 losers. And we managed to keep all our losers within control, while we let a couple winners run for a while.

We kept all losers below a 2R loss.

On the other side, we had 6 winners at more than 2R, with the AKAM trade at more than 5R profit! 

Some of those trades (AKAM for example) were even bigger if you were trading options, but we also had a couple ones (like IMAX) where trading the stock was much better. We will try to focus on the most liquid instruments in the future.

And we still have not booked our ARNA trade, which is turning to just be the biggest winner of the year!

Thank you everyone for all the great comments, and let’s keep it rolling in August.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader

 





Five More Failed Banks Cost US Government an Additional $334 Million in Losses

Five More Failed Banks Cost US Government an Additional $334 Million in Losses

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

The losses from the mortgage securities frauds and the subsequent bubble collapse continue to debilitate the US financial system, particularly the regional banks, in a slow bleed costing the US government additional millions each week. The public relations campaign promoting the idea that the bank bailouts are done and successful, and that the US made money on this egregious abuse of public monies is patently false, and probably can be described as corporatist propaganda.

The banks continue to mount a campaign to resist reform and regulation. They are taking advantage of the weakness of the Obama administration in failing to reform the banking system through liquidations and managed bankruptcies, including indictments and investigations as was seen in the Savings and Loan scandal.

It is difficult to continue to assume good intentions in this administration, or even mere incompetence. The objections put up by Geithner and Summers to the appointment of Elizabeth Warren as the head of the new consumer protection agency shows how reactionary they continue to be, and resistant to fundamental reforms.

American Banker
Failures on Two Coasts Stretch Toll for Year to 108

By Joe Adler
Friday, July 30, 2010

Five bank closures in four states Friday cost the federal government an additional $334 million in losses.

Regulators shuttered the $373 million-asset Coastal Community Bank in Panama City Beach, Fla., the $66 million-asset Bayside Savings Bank in Port Saint Joe, Fla., the $168 million-asset NorthWest Bank and Trust in Acworth, Ga., the $529 million-asset The Cowlitz Bank in Longview, Wash., and the $768-asset LibertyBank in Eugene, Ore. The failures brought the year’s total to 108.

The hammered Southeast bore the brunt of the failure activity, as it has for so many Fridays since the financial crisis began. Twenty banks have been seized in Florida in 2010, while 11 have failed in Georgia so far this year.

The two Florida institutions that failed Friday went to one buyer: Centennial Bank in Conway, Ark. The acquirer agreed to take over Coastal Community’s $363 million in deposits, Bayside Savings’ $52 million in deposits and roughly all of the assets of both institutions.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. agreed to share losses with Centennial on $303 million of Coastal Community’s assets, and $48


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Guest Post: HFT Bot-Versus-Bot

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Submitted by Scott Olsen of scottolsen.net

HFT Bot-versus-Bot

Zero Hedge has a great post on High Frequency Trading (HFT):

“It’s Not A Market, It’s An HFT ‘Crop Circle’ Crime Scene”

In the article he presents pretty compelling visual evidence of “quote stuffing” by HFT trading bots.  This quote stuffing can end up “pushing the bid/offer range up to 10% higher without even one trade ever having occurred.” It is illegal to indicate a quote without the intent to complete the quoted transaction.

But in my mind what is most significant is to whom this quote stuffing is directed.  It’s not directed at “head faking” analog Hedge Funds, or that rare bird “Real Money Investors,” it’s clearly directed at other HFT trading bots.  Yes, we’ve entered the era of Bot-versus-Bot in our stock market.  And to the new retiree that got pumped on that latest E-trade advert that’s in heavy rotation on CNBC and is ready to tiptoe in,  I can only give the best wishes that everybody gave to my grand-pappy: “Good luck, shooter….. Coming Out!”

HFT began with the observation that there is “structure” to the tick-by-tick movement of the markets, that as market participants – analog Hedge Funds, Real Money Investors, Brokerage Houses – made their trades,  there were patterns to the price movements that could be predicted, and therefore profited from.  From this position, it is a natural next step that as HFT trading bots become a large part of the transaction volume of the stock market (they are) that the algorithms that power these HFT trading bots should look to exploit the “structure” provided by other HFT trading bots.

A logical next step, no doubt, but we are really at what I call “the end of the rationale road” of this stock market thing.  My prior post about the topic:

High Frequency Trading, ECNs and the Green Light

We created this stock market thing so Montgomery Burns with capital, could get that capital to Transatlantic Zeppelin, which needed capital, in an efficient manner. Now, who knows why it exists.

And concomitant with the rise HFT trading bots is an increasing correlation between the individual components of indexes[continue reading






The Committee to Defraud the World

The Committee to Defraud the World

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

To say now that ‘No one knew’ or ‘I was mistaken’ or ‘I was just doing as I was told’ is another in a series of lies and deceptions that have supported one of the greatest frauds in the history of the world.

But this is not history. This episode of fraud is still playing itself out now. And to fail to understand the depth and breadth of this madness is to place oneself in peril, and in the power of those who are twisting the Western economic and political system even now to satisfy their lust for wealth and power. You are only successful if you can keep what you kill.

Glass-Steagall fell after a decade long campaign involving hundreds of millions in lobbyist money spread lavishly around the Congress, led by Sanford Weil of Citibank, supported by key banking and political figures in the Congress and at the Fed. It involved Senator Phil Gramm, who helped to put a stake in the heart of the financial regulatory process under the Reagan free markets banner, and who recently said the problem is that the middle class were a bunch of whiners. As did his wife Wendy, who as the chairperson of the CFTC had exempted Enron from regulatory oversight, and then left to take a position there on its board of directors.

Like the Mortgage Backed Securities scandal it involved surprisingly few principal players, like Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin, who used their power and influence to silence and ostracize critics, and promote a climate of reckless disregard for the public trust under the meme of ‘efficient markets’ and deregulation. This might have been an innocent policy error if it did not involve premeditated theft on a massive scale, followed by cover ups, denials, and a control fraud that exists even today.

But it also involved literally thousands of collaborators and enablers, from mainstream media people, economists, analysts, and other thought leaders to politicians and regulators who saw that it was to their advantage to at least passively support this scheme which they knew very well was a fairy tale, a fraud, class warfare by a new name, but were able to hide their own guilty consciences behind self-serving rationalization and the shield of plausible deniability.

History, and hopefully the justice system, will sort this all out.…
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Guest Post: How to Find Low Risk SP500, Gold & Oil ETF Setups

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Submitted by Chris Vermeulen of The Gold and Oil Guy

How to Find Low Risk SP500, Gold & Oil ETF Setups

As we all know there is an unlimited amount of ways to trade the financial markets. Each person sees the market in a different way, has different skill sets, trading experience and risk tolerance levels. While some individuals create and use complete systems to make money there are some very basic trading strategies which still work well and require nothing more than basic charting, patience and a little money management.

Let me explain:

SPY – SP500 Index Trading Fund

You can clearly see the longer term trend which is down (blue trendine). But from simply drawing a couple trendlines and looking at the MACD (momentum) indicator you can see there is a possible trend reversal taking place. So far the SPY has broken out of its down trendline with a 4 day pop, and it’s now pulled back down to test support. A close below the trend line or the 50MA would be the exit points if the market did start to go south.

The SP500 is still stuck under major resistance, its 200 day moving average. But is trading above key support levels (20MA, 50MA and Trendline). I can feel the tension in the market between traders and we are about to see a big move once a breakout to the upside or down side is established. At this time its best to be in cash or have a small position with a protective stop in place. Once a trend starts there should be some low risk entry points along the way. If we see a strong reversal to the upside On Monday or Tuesday I would expect big buyers would step in to catch this new trend up.

USO – Crude Oil Trading Fund

Oil has been trading in a large bearish pennant for the past 2 months and it is nearing the apex of this pattern. The longer term picture of oil is bearish but the most recent dotted trend line and the 20/50MA crossover is signaling some strength. Also the momentum for oil is positive and that helps support the price also. Again if this was to breakout to the upside I would wait for a low volume pullback to test the breakout level, then enter on a…
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Alan Greenspan: “The Financial System Is Broke”

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

For the definitive confirmation that the Fed is and has always been very open to, at least philosophically, pushing the market higher no matter what the cost (if not in practice – they would never do that, oh no, Liberty 33 would never stoop so low), is this quote from former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan who was on Meet The Press earlier, where he said the following stunner: “if the stock market continues higher it will do more to stimulate the economy than any other measure we have discussed here.” In other words, the Fed’s dual mandate of maximizing employment and promoting a stable inflation rate have been brushed aside, and the one and only prerogative for Chairman Ben currently, and for the short and long-term future, is to keep the Dow Jones (because nobody in the administration, even the Fed, has heard about the S&P yet), above 10,000. Yet Greenspan, who now apparently is off the reservation concludes with this stunner: “There is no doubt that the federal funds rate can be fixed at what the Fed wants it to be but which the government has no control over is long-term interest rates and long-term interest rates are what make the economy move. And if this budget problem eventually merges to the point where it begins to become very toxic, it will be reflected in rising long-term interest rates, rising mortgage rates, lower housing. At the moment there is no sign of that because the financial system is broke and you can not have inflation if the financial system is not working.” In other words, we will be in deflation until the broke financial system becomes unbroke… and then we will have hyperinflation.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, Q.E.D.

 

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy





 
 
 

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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ValueWalk

The Psychology of Human Misjudgment | 25 Cognitive Biases | Charlie Munger @ Harvard University

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Psychology of Human Misjudgment | 25 Cognitive Biases | Charlie Munger @ Harvard University

Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Published on Apr 10, 2016

The Psychology of Human Misjudgment talk by Charlie Munger. Also known as Charlie Munger's 25 Cognitive Bias talk.

Charlie Munger, the billionaire investor and friend of Warren Buffett gave this to talk to high level MBA programs and value investors, to help improve ...



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Zero Hedge

Crude Unable To Bounce Despite Biggest Rig Count Decline In 6 Weeks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After its earlier pump and rapid dump, WTI crude is unable to bounce for now despite the biggest rig count decline in 6 weeks. The oil rig count declined by 11 to 332 - the lowest since October 2009 - tracking lagged crude prices. If the co-dependence continues we would expect to see rig counts begin to rise (or stop declining) very soon. Total US rig count dropped to 420 - a new all-time record low.

  • *U.S. TOTAL RIG COUNT DOWN 11 TO 420 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS

...



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Phil's Favorites

The Full Story Behind Bloomberg's Attempt To "Unmask" Zero Hedge

As everyone here knows, we love Zero Hedge and love being able to get a quick take on the news before the power-washing and the paint jobs. William Banzai's description of the some of the contributors is pretty accurate, but there's no doubt that ZH is an amazing website, offering content you cannot find anywhere else. 

Picture courtesy of William Banzai7 at Zero Hedge

The Full Story Behind Bloomberg's Attempt To "Unmask" Zero Hedge

Courtesy of ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Corporate Profits on Pace for Third Straight Decline (WSJ)

U.S. corporate profits, weighed down by the energy slump and slowing global growth, are set to decline for the third straight quarter in the longest slide in earnings since the financial crisis.

Weakness was felt across the board, with executives from Apple Inc. to railroad Norfolk Southern Corp. and snack giant Mondelez International Inc. saying the current quarter remains tough. 

...



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Chart School

Two Measures of Inflation and Fed Policy

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Note: The charts below have been updated with the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures price index from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The annualized rate of change is calculated to two decimal places for more precision in the side-by-side comparison with the Consumer Price Index.

The BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for March, released yesterday, shows core inflation below the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 1.56%, down from its February reading of 1.72%, which was the highest since late 2012. The most recent Core Consumer Price Index release, also data through March, is higher at 2.19...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar breaking down, below monthly support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Starting in 2014, the US Dollar experienced one of its strongest 12-month rallies in its history. That strong rally pushed it up to the top of a trading channel and drove monthly momentum to the highest levels in the past 15-years.

Over the past 12-months, the US$ has pretty much just traded sideways.

Joe Friday Just The Facts; US Dollar could close out the month at “new monthly closing lows” when looking back over the past 15-months, as momentu...



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Biotech

PRGO, VRX and an Overpriced Papa

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

By Ilene 

Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote, 

"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation,...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin About To Soar?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Back on September 2, 2015 when bitcoin was trading at $230, we laid out the simplest and most fundamental reason why, irrelevant of one's ideological persuasion with "alternative" or digital currency - bitcoin would soar.

it was earlier this summer when the digital currency, which can bypass capital controls and national borders with the click of a button, surged on Grexit concerns and fears a Drachma return would crush the savings of an entire nation. Since then, BTC has dropped (in no small part as a result of the ...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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