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Friday, March 29, 2024

December Inflation Comes Highest Since Mid 2009 As Retail Sales Miss Expectations: Stagflation?

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

And after all the hype we finally know that December inflation was greater than expected, even as retail sales confirmed that the consumer is much weaker than had been propagandized: step aside word of the year “contagion” and meet your replacement “stagflation.” CPI comes in surging at 0.5%, beating estimates of 0.4%, and far higher than November’s 0.1%: the highest jump since June 2009. And those readers who have cars will likely be aware that Gasoline jumped by a massive 8.5% in December, the highest in a long time. Broadly, energy jumped by 4.6%. On an unadjusted 12 month basis, gasoline and fuel oil surged by 13.9% and 16.5% respectively. And there will be much more pain in store: somehow December food prices are supposed to have increased by just 0.1% in December: the lowest amount in the past 5 months. This number will very rapidly jump much higher as costs start being pass through. (full report)

And just as unpleasant was the December retail sales number, which was up 0.6% on expectations of a jump in 0.8%. So much for the mother of all shopping seasons. Retail sales less autos moved 0.5% M/M vs expectations of 0.7%, with the previous number being revised from 1.2% to 1.0%. The was no mention of snow destroying the carefully laid out propaganda plan in the release.

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