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Archive for March, 2011

HAMP, HARP, HAFA: Help

Courtesy of Econophile

This article originally appeared in The Daily Capitalist.

On Tuesday the House, dominated by Republicans, voted an end to the current program, known as HAMP (Home Affordable Modification Program). Yesterday the NY Times lamented the fact that the government’s attempts to solve the housing crisis have failed miserably. It isn’t through want of trying. Here are some of the programs listed under the government’s MakingHomeAffordable.com site (888-995-HOPE):

And don’t forget these programs:

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 supported the Low Income Housing Tax Credit market by creating an innovative Tax Credit Exchange Program (“TCEP”) and providing gap financing through the HUD Tax Credit Assistance Program (“TCAP”).  In combination these programs are estimated to provide over $5 billion in support for affordable rental housing. The Recovery Act also provided $2 billion in support for the Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) in addition to $4 billion provided for the program in the Housing and Economic Recovery Act.

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act mentioned above is described as follows:

It authorizes the Federal Housing Administration to guarantee up to $300 billion in new 30-year fixed rate mortgages for subprime borrowers if lenders write-down principal loan balances to 90 percent of current appraisal value. It’s intended to restore confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by strengthening regulations and injecting capital into the two large U.S. suppliers of mortgage funding. … Includes a first-time home buyer refundable tax credit for purchases on or after April 9, 2008 and before July 1, 2009 equal to 10 percent of the purchase price of a principal residence, up to $7,500 [raised to $8,000 and subsequently extended].

At the same time, the following Acts were passed: FHA Modernization Act of 2008, Federal Housing Finance Regulatory Reform Act of 2008, HOPE for Homeowners Act…
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EPA: Radioactive Iodine Exceeding Maximum Contaminant Levels for Drinking Water Found in Pennsylvania and Massachusetts (And Other States) … But It’s Safe

Courtesy of George Washington

As I noted Tuesday, the government is responding to the Japanese nuclear accident by trying to raise acceptable radiation levels and pretending that radiation is good for us.

Forbes’ blogger Jeff McMahon points out:

The Environmental Protection Agency yesterday reported finding elevated levels of iodine-131, a product of nuclear fission, in rainwater in Pennsylvania and Massachusetts. The levels exceed the maximum contaminant level (MCL) permitted in drinking water, but EPA continues to assure the public there is no need for alarm:

 

“It is important to note that the corresponding MCL for iodine-131 was calculated based on long-term chronic exposures over the course of a lifetime – 70 years. The levels seen in rainwater are expected to be relatively short in duration,” the agency states in a FAQ that accompanied yesterday’s brief news release.

 

“In both cases these are levels above the normal background levels historically reported in these areas.”

 

EPA said it is receiving “verbal reports” of higher levels of radiation in rainwater samples from other states as well, and that Americans should continue to expect short-term contamination of rainwater as radioactive isotopes spread through the atmosphere from Japan.

 

“We continue to expect similar reports from state agencies and others across the nation given the nature and duration of the Japanese nuclear incident.”

The EPA also found radioactive iodine in milk in Washington State.

Fortunately. the half life of radioactive iodine is only 8.02 days. That means that the iodine loses half of its radioactivity within 8 days.

If you trust the EPA to tell you if radiation levels are unsafe, then carry on.

But if you do not trust the government to tell you the truth, and if you are afraid of radioactive exposure, you might consider stocking up on a little extra milk and water, and then letting each container of fluids sit for a couple of weeks before drinking. That will greatly reduce the radioactivity caused by the iodine 131. Obviously, beverages packed before the Japanese earthquake are safe.

(Because radioactive cesium has a much longer half-life, a couple of weeks of storing fluids before drinking them obviously wouldn’t do much for that material).

In addition, if you’re still worried about exposure to radiation, you might want to note that…
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Mike Krieger Is On the Road…Again

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

From Mike Krieger of KAM LP

 

The President does not have power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation.
- Barack Obama in an interview with the Boston Globe on December 20, 2007

If the administration believes that any — any — use of force against Iran is necessary, the President must come to Congress to seek that authority.
- Hilary Clinton in 2007

“Well, we would welcome congressional support,” the Secretary said, “but I don’t think that this kind of internationally authorized intervention where we are one of a number of countries participating to enforce a humanitarian mission is the kind of unilateral action that either I or President Obama was speaking of several years ago.”
- Hilary Clinton in 2011 when asked why not go to Congress for approval of the “Kinetic Military Action” (Newspeak for War) launched against Libya

From my simple reading, the Constitution is fairly clear on the subject: Congress is given the power to declare war. At that moment, the president as commander in chief is free to prosecute the war as he thinks best. But constitutional law and the language of the Constitution seem to have diverged. It is a complex field of study, obviously.”

And now in Libya, we have reached the point that even resolutions are no longer needed.

It is said that there is no precedent for fighting al Qaeda, for example, because it is not a nation but a subnational group. Therefore, Bush could not reasonably have been expected to ask for a declaration of war. But there is precedent: Thomas Jefferson asked for and received a declaration of war against the Barbary pirates. This authorized Jefferson to wage war against a subnational group of pirates as if they were a nation.

I began by talking about the American empire. I won’t make the argument on that here, but simply assert it. What is most important is that the republic not be overwhelmed in the course of pursuing imperial goals. The declaration of war is precisely the point at which imperial interests can overwhelm republican prerogatives.

- Quotes from George Friedman’s (of Stratfor) excellent piece from earlier this week “What Happened to the American…
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Japan Post’s stalled sale a saving grace

Japan Post’s stalled sale a saving grace

Courtesy of Ellen Brown, Web of Debt 

When a spokeswoman for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said at a news conference on March 17 that Japan has the financial means to recover from its devastating tsunami, skeptical bloggers wondered what she meant. Was it a polite way of saying, "You’re on your own?" 

Spokeswoman Caroline Atkinson said, "The most important policy priority is to address the humanitarian needs, the infrastructure needs and reconstruction and addressing the nuclear situation. We believe that the Japanese economy is a strong and wealthy society and the government has the full financial resources to address those needs." 

Asked whether Japan had asked for IMF assistance, she said, "Japan has not requested any financial assistance from the IMF."

Skeptics asked how a country with a national debt that was over 200% of gross domestic product (GDP) could be "strong and wealthy". In a Central Intelligence Agency Factbook list of debt to GDP ratios of 132 countries in 2010, Japan was at the top of the list at 226%, passing even Zimbabwe, ringing in at 149%. Greece and Iceland were fifth and sixth, at 144% and 124%. Yet Japan’s credit rating was still AA, while Greece and Iceland were in the BBB category. How has Japan managed to retain not only its credit rating but its status as the second- or third-largest economy in the world, while carrying that whopping debt load? 

The answer may be that the Japanese government has a captive funding source: it owns the world’s largest depository bank. As US vice president Dick Cheney said, "Deficits don’t matter." They don’t matter, at least, when you own the bank that is your principal creditor. Japan has remained impervious to the speculative attacks that have crippled countries such as Greece and Iceland because it has not fallen into the trap of dependency on foreign financing. 

Japan Post Bank is now the largest holder of personal savings in the world, making it the world’s largest credit engine. Most money today originates as bank loans, and deposits are the magic pool from which this credit-money is generated. Japan Post is not only the world’s largest depository bank but its largest publicly owned bank. By 2007, it was also the largest employer in Japan, and the holder of one-fifth of the national debt in the form of government bonds. 

As noted by Joe Weisenthal, writing in Business Insider…
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Presenting The Complete Fed Discount Window Data Dump

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Update: the link should be working fine now.

While Zero Hedge ploughs through 25,000 or so pages of just declassified information focusing on the Discount Window, but containing previously undisclosed information on the entire alphabet soup of systemic rescue facilities, and prepare to present our findings shortly, we would like to facilitate the crowdsourcing effort in perusing the data which the Fed has made prohibitively difficult to access (only distributed on physical CD), by uploading the entire data dump at the following link.

Our very preliminary question is whether the Fed really expects the US public to believe it does not keep track of the collateral it lends Discount Window money against, and if that rhetoric question is false, then why is collateral data not disclosed?




Resistance test for a couple of Oil plays is at hand….

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Game Plan….Have been an owner of DBC for a while.   (see post here)  Don’t sell…yet do put in a 3% stop on this ETF.




Ireland Finance Minister Says Sovereign Debt Sustainable…If Economy Grows

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

And the award for the most prosaic and “Field Marshall Obvious” statement of the day goes to Irish finance minister Michael Noonan, who just told the Dail that Irish sovereign debt is sustainable if the economy grows. We have just one question: how does the brand new minister, who therefore gets the benefit of the doubt for a few more hours, justify that statement, with the attached chart?




It’s Not Just Us…

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

…who have reached a level of complete disgust with equity markets in a period of unprecedented central planning. Here is Peter Tchir of TF Market Adivsors asking some very critical questions, which would probably be best directed to the Great Chairsatan.

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Is it just me or is the price action getting more difficult to explain?  Being wrong is not new.  Being right for the wrong reasons is also not new, but usually you can at least point to some bit of data or news and see how it impacted the market.

For the past week I’ve been struggling to even do that.  One day stocks are up on news that Japan is less bad than feared, which would make sense except the Nikkei was down that day.

Some days rising oil prices are bad.  Others its good.

Economic data has been just as confusing.  We rally on bad numbers.  We rally on good numbers.  We sell off on good numbers.  We sell off on bad numbers.

US stocks rally on Irish stress tests, but Irish bonds sold off on the stress test,  but European CDS tightened, but US credit widened.  Go figure.

Some bonds are bid without, others are offered without, and again, no obvious reason for such a discrepency.

The only useful inside information would be which stocks Warren is going to buy, but I’m told that’s not actually inside information. 

Maybe I’m the only one confused and find the moves hard to explain and can’t figure out why the relationships between markets is breaking down, but I suspect I’m not the only one, and its not necessarily a good thing.  SPX 1200 or SPX 1400?  Who knows?  I’m not even sure I know what news would take us to either one.





 

Phil's Favorites

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner  

I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc.  The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in p...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Zero Hedge

Debt Ceiling 101, Santelli Sounds Off

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In an effort to reach the angry mob, CNBC's Rick Santelli goes all Sesame Street on the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).

...

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Chart School

ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).

Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...



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Market Montage

Average Age of U.S. Vehicles Hits Record 10.8 Years

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high.  Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...



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Insider Scoop

Research in Motion Surging after Prem Watsa Stake

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.

Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.

Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.

Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.

...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 1/27/2012

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...

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ETF Selector

Wall Street Party Hangover (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday

Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party.  The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.

The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...



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Option Review

Big Prints In Deutsche Bank Put Options

 

Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general! AA Money Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance. Previous week P&L - $400.00 We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium! FAS Money We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope. Previous week P&L - $4372.00...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: QE-cating

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating.  Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)

Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game.  More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline.  In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up.  I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect.  I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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