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Archive for April, 2011

It’s Getting Plain Silly: MF Global Hikes Silver Margin To 175% Of CME, Or Over 10% Of Contract

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Now it’s just getting plain silly. Following two margin hikes by the CME, one for 9% and one for 10% this week, now MF Global, run by former Goldman CEO Jon Corzine has joined the fray, and has hiked its silver margin to $25,397. As a reminder, the latest CME margin is $14,513, or about 6% of the contract value of $241,750 assuming a silver price of $48.35. So MF Global’s is 175% of the CME! It is obvious that everyone is now hell bent on destroying the parabolic move higher in gold and silver, which is happening for a very good reason: deranged money printing. Although, as yesterday, we very much doubt MF Global, or anyone else for that matter will hike ES margins any time soon. After all, doing anything to stop the Weimar rallyTM in its tracks is treason of the highest degree under Bernanke’s dictatorship and is punishable appropriately. In the meantime, can the exchange just make margin trading in commodities illegal and move to all cash? At least that way all the weak momo hands can be relegated to chasing Netflix and other bubbles, making their eventual pop all the more memorable.

h/t @gptrading




U.S. Stem-Cell Research Can Continue, Appeals Court Says

This was the right decision regardless of any “linguistic jujitsu,” which really began with George W. Bush’s executive order limiting research to about 20 existing cell lines. That make no logical sense. – Ilene

U.S. funding of human embryonic stem-cell studies can continue while a lower court decides whether the government-backed research violates the law, a federal appeals court said.

The U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington today reversed a preliminary order that would have blocked the U.S. Health and Human Services Department and the National Institutes of Health from spending government money on researching embryonic stem- cells, known as ESC, until the district court judge rules. The court had put a hold on the order in September.

“The hardship a preliminary injunction would impose on ESC researchers” would be “certain and substantial,” the court said. “Their investment in project planning would be a loss, their expenditures for equipment a waste, and their staffs out of a job.”

[...]

The appeals court found that the plaintiffs were unlikely to succeed on the merits of their case so the “extraordinary remedy” of a preliminary injunction could not be justified.

Continue here: U.S. Stem-Cell Research Can Continue, Appeals Court Says – Bloomberg.





First Federal Bancshares Of Arkansas: Holders OK 1-For-5 Reverse Stock Split -DJ (FFBH)

Courtesy of Benzinga

First Federal Bancshares Of Arkansas (NASDAQ: FFBH) Holders OK 1-For-5 Reverse Stock Split, Reported By Dow Jones


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GMO Quarterly Review: “U.S. Small Cap Stocks Are Now As Expensive As We Have Ever Seen Them”

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

From GMO’s latest quarterly review:

From a strategic perspective, the current overpriced environment makes asset allocation decisions neither simple nor comfortable. Having established that we are once again in a world of narrow risk premiums, it is not hard to look back at history and pinpoint times where current valuations led to steep falls in prices. The problem, of course, is that we can also find previous episodes where markets continued to rally, albeit still delivering poor longer-term returns. This stark choice is made even more bleak by the dearth of safe assets offering reasonable returns to hold while sitting out the ongoing stock market levitation. As a result, we are forced to hold more equities than we would prefer at these absolute valuations for the simple reason that we could be in for a long sideways grind where growth eventually closes the valuation gap. In that scenario, real equity returns will likely be meager, but at least positive. One group that we refuse to hold, however, is global small cap stocks and, in particular, U.S. small caps. On our data, U.S. small cap stocks are now as expensive as we have ever seen them. Perhaps more surprising still is the deafening silence about this distinctly frothy group. Although the S&P 500 price index is still some way below its all-time high, U.S. small caps are within spitting distance of theirs: a high that was last reached with a booming global economy, strong employment, and a debt-driven consumption binge in full swing.

All this and much more in the full thing:

Cms Attachment Download




Netgear Options Pop as Shares Fly to All-Time High

www.interactivebrokers.com

Today’s tickers: NTGR, GT, DOW & S

NTGR - Netgear, Inc. – The maker of networking products for at-home and small business use reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings on Thursday after the closing bell, and projected second-quarter sales of $270 million, which beat the consensus estimate of $240.3 million. Shares in the San Jose, CA-based company subsequently jumped 28.4% today to secure an intraday- and new all-time high of $43.67. Investors expecting the price of the underlying to trend higher through the next couple of months traded more than 2,800 calls at the June $45 strike on just 10 lots of previously existing open interest. The majority of the call options were purchased for an average premium of $1.35 each. Call buyers make money if shares in Netgear rally another 6.1% over today’s high of $43.67 to surpass the average breakeven price of $46.35 by expiration day in June. Meanwhile, pre-earnings report buyers of May contract call options have seen the value of their positions sky-rocket today. One trader appears to be taking profits, selling 50 now deep in-the-money calls at the May $31 strike for an average premium of $10.38 each, which he appears to have initially purchased for just $3.60 apiece on Thursday. Open interest levels at the two highest-available strike prices in the front month indicate call buyers paid as much as $0.35 per contract to buy fewer than 100 calls at each of the May $37 and $38 strikes earlier in the week. Today, these same calls tout asking prices of $4.60 and $3.80, respectively. Approximately 4,200 call and put options have changed hands on Netgear just before 1:00pm on overall previously existing open interest of 5,678 contracts on the stock.

GT - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. – Shares in the largest U.S. tire manufacturer shot up…
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Fabulous Friday – Royal Weddings and a Record Russell

Courtesy of ilene

Fabulous Friday – Royal Weddings and a Record Russell

By Phil of Phil’s Stock World

Trend: Americans' Ratings of Current Direction of EconomyAre 55% of the people in this country idiots?  

According to the MSM punditocracy, they must be because a whopping 29% of the people in the United States of America feel we are in an Economic Depression while 26% of the people classify the economy as being in a Recession and 16% of the remaining 45% say the economy is slowing down leaving 27% of the people polled by Gallup (only 2% admitted they were not qualified to make a determination) who believe the economy is growing.  

We already know how well the top 10% are doing so if we remove them from the “growing” side of the survey we see that, among the rest of the people, a full 83% aren’t buying into this “growth” BS. Living paycheck to paycheck does tend to put you a bit more in touch with the real economy than the average media pundit, Congressperson or Fed Chairman, I suppose.  Now hear is the most interesting thing about the survey:  The groups that sees the economy growing the least (14%) and who are most likely to feel we are in a Recession or Depression (68%) are Tea Partiers and Republicans.  Democrats actually gave the economy the best scores, with 42% seeing growth in the economy and “just” 43% seeing the economy in a Recession or Depression with only 18% seeing Depression, 1/2 the number of Reps, Independents or Tea Party People.  

[click on chart to enlarge]

Americans' Ratings of Current Direction of Economy, by Party ID and Tea Party Supporters, April 2011

Although economists announced that the recession ended in mid-2009, more than half of Americans still don’t agree. These ratings are consistent with Gallup’s mid-April findings that 47% of Americans rate the economy “poor and 19.2% report being underemployed. According to Gallup:

It also seems likely that most Americans would not agree with the FOMC’s assessment of the current economic recovery. Nor does it seem likely that — given surging gas and food prices — most would agree with the Committee that “longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation are subdued.”

Although the FOMC seems to perceive current economic conditions differently than most Americans, it does say it


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Markit Responds To Allegations Of CDS Pricing Collusion

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Earlier we observed the long-overdue (noted first here in March of 2009) allegations that Markit among any others may be involved in a massive CDS pricing collusion scheme. Now it is Markit’s turn to provide its side of the story.

Markit Statement on European Commission CDS Inquiry

Markit is aware of the European Commission’s statement that it will open investigations relating to the Credit Default Swaps information and clearing markets.  Markit has no exclusive arrangements with any data provider and makes its data and related products widely available to global market participants.  Markit has created new and innovative products and services in a competitive marketplace since its inception, bringing greater transparency and information to the CDS market.  Markit is unaware of any collusion by other market participants as described by the Commission.  Markit does not believe it has engaged in any inappropriate conduct and looks forward to demonstrating that to the Commission.

Of course, this does sound much more diplomatically correct than this hypothetical example: “Markit is indeed owned by many of the 16 banks referenced in the charges, and confirms that it has in fact colluded with its owners to provide them with unfair pricing benefits and advantages.” The latter version would surely be ludicrous.




“Equities Have Achieved a ‘Holy Grail’” — Sign of a Top?

Courtesy of John Rubino

During the early stages of the housing bubble Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach was one of the few sane voices on Wall Street. His warnings about the global economy were clear and obviously true, and his willingness to bite the hand that fed him was admirable. The guy had guts. In early 2006 I had the following article all ready to post:

The Bravest Man on Wall Street

People tend to lump the big-name critics of the U.S. economy together, and assume that they’re all coming from the same place and somehow benefiting, one way or another, from their points of view. But that’s not true. It’s relatively easy for a Bob Prechter or Doug Noland or Marc Faber to hold to their positions for years while their truth gradually dawns on the rest of us, because they more-or-less run their own shows. The might lose a few investors, but they don’t face institutional resistance from above and below.

That’s why Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach deserves our admiration. He doesn’t work for a short seller and he’s not the author of best selling gloom-and-doom books. He works for a big, mainstream investment bank, where optimism is golden and pessimism scares clients, lowers trading volumes and eventually gets you fired. To grasp the truth of this you have to understand the internal structure of an investment bank. It’s made up of bankers who do deals, traders who trade, and salespeople who convince money managers and other traders to buy the firm’s securities. None of these guys likes the idea of a global economic meltdown. In fact they hate sell recommendations in general.

For a salesman, getting a client to buy a given stock or bond builds a relationship and creates an ongoing income stream. At the very least, knowing a customer likes a given security allows the salesman to sharpen the pitch for the next call. On the other hand, if a customer sells everything and goes to cash, that’s it. They don’t need updates and you have no way of knowing what to offer them by looking at their holdings. Your income goes down, maybe you get fired, and you blame the senior strategist who terrified the money manger into doing this.

It’s the same with investment bankers. If investors are selling rather than buying and the overall market is falling, there’s no demand for


continue reading




“Equities Have Achieved a ‘Holy Grail’” — Sign of a Top?

Courtesy of John Rubino

During the early stages of the housing bubble Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach was one of the few sane voices on Wall Street. His warnings about the global economy were clear and obviously true, and his willingness to bite the hand that fed him was admirable. The guy had guts. In early 2006 I had the following article all ready to post:

The Bravest Man on Wall Street

People tend to lump the big-name critics of the U.S. economy together, and assume that they’re all coming from the same place and somehow benefiting, one way or another, from their points of view. But that’s not true. It’s relatively easy for a Bob Prechter or Doug Noland or Marc Faber to hold to their positions for years while their truth gradually dawns on the rest of us, because they more-or-less run their own shows. The might lose a few investors, but they don’t face institutional resistance from above and below.

That’s why Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach deserves our admiration. He doesn’t work for a short seller and he’s not the author of best selling gloom-and-doom books. He works for a big, mainstream investment bank, where optimism is golden and pessimism scares clients, lowers trading volumes and eventually gets you fired. To grasp the truth of this you have to understand the internal structure of an investment bank. It’s made up of bankers who do deals, traders who trade, and salespeople who convince money managers and other traders to buy the firm’s securities. None of these guys likes the idea of a global economic meltdown. In fact they hate sell recommendations in general.

For a salesman, getting a client to buy a given stock or bond builds a relationship and creates an ongoing income stream. At the very least, knowing a customer likes a given security allows the salesman to sharpen the pitch for the next call. On the other hand, if a customer sells everything and goes to cash, that’s it. They don’t need updates and you have no way of knowing what to offer them by looking at their holdings. Your income goes down, maybe you get fired, and you blame the senior strategist who terrified the money manger into doing this.

It’s the same with investment bankers. If investors are selling rather than buying and the overall market is falling, there’s no demand for


continue reading




 

Phil's Favorites

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner  

I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc.  The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in p...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Zero Hedge

Debt Ceiling 101, Santelli Sounds Off

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In an effort to reach the angry mob, CNBC's Rick Santelli goes all Sesame Street on the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).

...

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Chart School

ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).

Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...



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Market Montage

Average Age of U.S. Vehicles Hits Record 10.8 Years

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high.  Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...



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Insider Scoop

Research in Motion Surging after Prem Watsa Stake

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.

Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.

Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.

Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.

...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 1/27/2012

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...

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ETF Selector

Wall Street Party Hangover (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday

Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party.  The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.

The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...



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Option Review

Big Prints In Deutsche Bank Put Options

 

Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general! AA Money Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance. Previous week P&L - $400.00 We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium! FAS Money We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope. Previous week P&L - $4372.00...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: QE-cating

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating.  Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)

Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game.  More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline.  In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up.  I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect.  I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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