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Archive for May, 2011

Rediff.com Soaring 5%

Courtesy of Benzinga

Rediff.com India Limited (NASDAQ: REDF) shares are soaring nearly 5% on 1.1 million shares.

At around 2:55, shares just started to spike up. The rumor going about on Wall Street is that the company will like a Youtube like video service.

At last check, shares were up 61 cents to $11.03, a gain of 5.85%.

Rediff.com India Limited provides online Internet based services in India and to the global Indian community.

Visit Benzinga >




Billion Dollar Fund Managers Agree: The Government Never Fixed the Underlying Economic Problems, So We'll Have Another Crash

Courtesy of George Washington

Washington’s Blog

While the snake oil salespeople at the retail investing level and the bobble heads on the kool aid selling financial channels have been saying for years that we’re in a “recovery” (albeit a slow one), the billion dollar fund managers are saying that nothing has changed and we’ll have another crash.

As Bloomerg reports:

Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management’s emerging markets group, said another financial crisis is inevitable because the causes of the previous one haven’t been resolved.

 

“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis,” Mobius said …“Are the derivatives regulated? No. Are you still getting growth in derivatives? Yes.”

 

The total value of derivatives in the world exceeds total global gross domestic product by a factor of 10, said Mobius, who oversees more than $50 billion. With that volume of bets in different directions, volatility and equity market crises will occur, he said.

The global financial crisis three years ago was caused in part by the proliferation of derivative products tied to U.S. home loans that ceased performing, triggering hundreds of billions of dollars in writedowns and leading to the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008.

Jeffrey Gundlach notes that we’ve still got a quadrillion dollar derivative overhang which dwarfs the size the of real global economy, the government hasn’t done anything to fix the basic problems in our economy, and so we’ll have another crash:

Pimco co-CEO Bill Gross has repeatedly said that the U.S. is running a Ponzi scheme and says:

Ultimately creditors and investors are at the behest of a central bank and policymakers that will rob them of their money.

Pimco co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian predicts that “financial repression” in the form of a negative real rate of return for savers is coming to America.

The New York Times reports:

Even some senior Wall Street executives acknowledge the lack of change surprises them, given how poorly the industry performed last fall and the degree of government support necessary to keep


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Billion Dollar Fund Managers Agree: The Government Never Fixed the Underlying Economic Problems, So We’ll Have Another Crash

Courtesy of George Washington

Washington’s Blog

While the snake oil salespeople at the retail investing level and the bobble heads on the kool aid selling financial channels have been saying for years that we’re in a “recovery” (albeit a slow one), the billion dollar fund managers are saying that nothing has changed and we’ll have another crash.

As Bloomerg reports:

Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management’s emerging markets group, said another financial crisis is inevitable because the causes of the previous one haven’t been resolved.

 

“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis,” Mobius said …“Are the derivatives regulated? No. Are you still getting growth in derivatives? Yes.”

 

The total value of derivatives in the world exceeds total global gross domestic product by a factor of 10, said Mobius, who oversees more than $50 billion. With that volume of bets in different directions, volatility and equity market crises will occur, he said.

The global financial crisis three years ago was caused in part by the proliferation of derivative products tied to U.S. home loans that ceased performing, triggering hundreds of billions of dollars in writedowns and leading to the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008.

Jeffrey Gundlach notes that we’ve still got a quadrillion dollar derivative overhang which dwarfs the size the of real global economy, the government hasn’t done anything to fix the basic problems in our economy, and so we’ll have another crash:

Pimco co-CEO Bill Gross has repeatedly said that the U.S. is running a Ponzi scheme and says:

Ultimately creditors and investors are at the behest of a central bank and policymakers that will rob them of their money.

Pimco co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian predicts that “financial repression” in the form of a negative real rate of return for savers is coming to America.

The New York Times reports:

Even some senior Wall Street executives acknowledge the lack of change surprises them, given how poorly the industry performed last fall and the degree of government support necessary to keep


continue reading




An Inversely-Correlated Take On Corporate Profits And Dollar Destruction

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

One of the more interesting correlations (not causations) to have emerged following the surge in corporate profit margins is that of the inverse relationship between now record corporate profit margins, and net exports & services originating from the US. While we certainly will not imply one is a cause of the other or vice versa, we would be remiss to not point out the irony of what would happen should this correlation preserve itself in an environment in which US exports end up being curbed due to a surge in the US dollar once the frailty of the Eurozone no longer allows the EUR to appreciate on desperate one-time (if recurring) rescue measures. And with China largely ignoring US demands to revalue its currency and import more US goods and services (no laughing), is it safe to say that this chart is the one most direct confirmation that the weak dollar policy adopted by the Fed has had it most proximal impact nowhere else than on surging corporate profit levels (and Wall Street bonuses of course).

Via FRED, courtesy of Matt Stoller





Jim Grant And James Turk Discuss The Endgame Of The Keynesian Experiment

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Two of our preferred commentators, Jim Grant, of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, and James Turk, of the GoldMoney Foundation, sat down earlier today to discuss the history and mission of the Fed, how mission creep has taken it wildly beyond its initial purpose into the territory of QE, ZIRP and other fiat currency experiments. While not breaking ground on any notably new concepts, they talk about "who benefits from zero interest rates and how savers are penalized by this easy money policy. They explain that the US has been off the gold standard since 1913, Bretton Woods being only a shadow of the classical gold standard."

The two also discuss the fiscal profligacy of the US government. Alas, they conclude that every paper currency in history has eventually gone to zero (see earlier piece on Roman hyperinflation). James and Jim also talk about ZIRP and the absence of the bond vigilantes after over 30 years of bull market in bonds. How traders no longer care about fundamentals, like balance sheets, but rather focus on very short time horizons and the spreads between funding costs and yields. How this situation is unsustainable. They see gold still as a very under-owned, misunderstood and marginal asset still shunned by institutional investors, with a few notable exceptions which indicate that the tide could be turning. They see a gold standard in the future, although timing is always uncertain. At the end they talk about the history of US post civil war specie resumption and parallels to a return to the gold standard in the future.

Courtesy of Gold Money:




Positive Rumors About Rediff.com India Ltd Circulate (REDF)

Courtesy of Benzinga

Unconfirmed positive rumors circulating at Rediff.com India Ltd (Nasdaq: REDF).

Hearing chatter company will release a YouTube-Like site in India

This article may include mentions of rumors, chatter, or unconfirmed information. Readers should beware that while unconfirmed information may be correlated with increased volatility in securities, price movements based on unofficial information may change quickly based on increased speculation, clarification, or release of official news.

© 2011 Benzinga.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published in its entirety or redistributed without the approval of Benzinga.

Visit Benzinga >




Update on the Japanese Nuclear Crisis: Not a Pretty Picture

Courtesy of George Washington

Washington’s Blog

Experts have long said that Tepco’s projections for containing the nuclear crisis this year were unrealistic. Now, even Tepco is admitting that things won’t be stabilized this year. As Kyodo News reports:

Stabilizing the crisis at the Fukushima No. 1 power plant by the end of the year may be impossible, senior officials at Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Sunday, throwing a monkey wrench into plans to let evacuees return to their homes near the plant.

 

***

 

On May 12, it was confirmed that a meltdown had occurred at the No. 1 reactor, forcing the utility to abandon the water entombment idea and try to install a new cooling system that decontaminates and recycles the radioactive water flooding the reactor’s turbine building instead.

 

Given that the contaminated water has leaked from the No. 1 reactor’s containment vessel, a Tepco official said, “We must first determine where it is leaking and seal it.”

 

The official added, “Unless we understand the extent of the damage, we don’t even know how long that work alone would take,” noting the need for one or two months more than previously thought to establish an entirely new cooling system.

In other words, Tepco has no idea how long it will take to contain the leaking reactors.

As has been obvious from the start, Tepco has also covered up vital information. Now, even the Japanese government is lambasting Tepco for its secrecy. As Kyodo News notes:

Tokyo Electric Power Co. did not fully disclose radiation monitoring data after its Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant was crippled by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, the government revealed Friday. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano, after being informed by Goshi Hosono, a special adviser to Prime Minister Naoto Kan, told reporters that he instructed Tepco to sort out the data, make it public and make doubly sure no more information-withholding occurs.

 

Coming a day after he blasted Tepco’s flip-flop over the injection of seawater into the plant’s reactor 1, Edano said the government “cannot respond to this matter on the premise” that no more undisclosed information will emerge.

 

“There is a distinct possibility that


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Big Dams = Big Drought? Ask China

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

Way way back in the late 70’s early 80’s I was working for Citi. One role I had was related to the construction of the Guri Hydroelectric dam in Venezuela (a minor involvement). The World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank provided a big chunk of the financing. All the big banks were lending money to the Venezuelan government and to the local electric company EDELCA. There were foreign contractors from every country involved. Money was moving in every different direction. I handled some of the FX transactions. As I result I became familiar/interested in this mega-construction project.


On paper, this was an absolutely beautiful project. A true perpetual energy machine was being created. The hydro dam was being located at what looked to be a perfect location. Two maps:

For millions of years the warm water of the Caribbean  produced huge quantities of moisture that rose into the air and drifted southwest over Venezuela’s high plains. When that wet air runs into the Andes mountains it creates rain. Lots of it. This pattern created big rivers like the Orinoco that bring the water back to the ocean.

This endless cycle created an ideal condition for generating hydro power. So Guri was built. A 10,200 MW facility that flooded an area of 1,641 square miles. That’s big.

The flooded area was greater than the state of Rhode Island. The lake was 25Xs the size of the District of Columbia, 70Xs the island of Manhattan.

Your average coal plant produces only 700MW. A big nuke like the two units at Diablo Canyon produce only 2,300MW. Fukushima Daiich (4 units. Top ten globally) produced at its peak 4,700MW, less than half of the capacity at Guri.

Anything you might read about Guri will say it was a successful project. But here is my side story:

Many years later I was wearing a different hat. I was on the ‘buy-side’. Investing in (very) distressed assets. Venezuela was in the crapper at the time and EDELCA bonds (owner of Guri) were trading at 30 cents on the dollar with 5 years of interest coupons attached for free. So I took a look. I noticed that the MW production…
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Phil's Favorites

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner  

I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc.  The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in p...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Zero Hedge

Debt Ceiling 101, Santelli Sounds Off

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In an effort to reach the angry mob, CNBC's Rick Santelli goes all Sesame Street on the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).

...

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Chart School

ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).

Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...



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Market Montage

Average Age of U.S. Vehicles Hits Record 10.8 Years

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high.  Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...



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Insider Scoop

Research in Motion Surging after Prem Watsa Stake

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.

Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.

Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.

Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.

...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 1/27/2012

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...

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ETF Selector

Wall Street Party Hangover (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday

Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party.  The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.

The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...



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Option Review

Big Prints In Deutsche Bank Put Options

 

Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general! AA Money Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance. Previous week P&L - $400.00 We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium! FAS Money We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope. Previous week P&L - $4372.00...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: QE-cating

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating.  Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)

Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game.  More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline.  In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up.  I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect.  I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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