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Friday, April 19, 2024

Current Market Snapshot: Wibble-Wobble Wednesday

Courtesy of Doug Short

Today the S&P 500 appeared dazed and confused. And who could wonder why? Good earnings, news of nervous home buyers, and on-again off-again government debt maneuverings. The index closed a narrow-range day with a loss of 0.07% on extremely light volume. The index is now up 5.42% year-to-date but 2.77% below the interim high set on April 29.

From an intermediate perspective, the index is 96.0% above the March 2009 closing low and 15.3% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.


 

 

 

 

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.

These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.

 

 

 

 

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