Courtesy of Doug Short
Today the S&P 500 appeared dazed and confused. And who could wonder why? Good earnings, news of nervous home buyers, and on-again off-again government debt maneuverings. The index closed a narrow-range day with a loss of 0.07% on extremely light volume. The index is now up 5.42% year-to-date but 2.77% below the interim high set on April 29.
From an intermediate perspective, the index is 96.0% above the March 2009 closing low and 15.3% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.