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Archive for July, 2011

Weekend Reading – Waiting to get Screwed

Still no deal? 

This is amazing, isn’t it?  I was reminded in Member Chat this weekend that Eisenhower (a Republican, by the way) once said: "Should any political party attempt to abolish social security unemployment insurance and eliminate labor laws and farm programs you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things. Among them are H. L. Hunt, a few other Texas oil millionaires and an occasional politician or business man from other areas.  Their number is negligible and they are stupid."  Unfortunately, the Stupids are currently holding our Nation hostage and it looks like the very weak-willed Democrats are going to give into their demands.  

Unlike Obama, President Roosevelt was proud to say "Organized money hates me--and I welcome their hatred!"  These days, the Democrats are in the same beds and wrapped up in the same, stained sheets as the Republicans and Banksters and they are all willing to sell the people of this country down the river in exchange for 4 more years at the head table.  A big difference these days is that a Congressman doesn’t need to be in office for life to get rich – Here’s a great list of Democrats and Republicans who have more than doubled their net worth in just 4 years of servicehere’s a good video on the subject.  

These are the Congresspeople who were PAID to look the other way while our economy was destroyed and were PAID to vote for TARP, stimulus and countless other programs that favor their Corporate Masters.  So it is true, trickle-down economics does work – it trickles from the Corporations that make Billions to the Congresspeople who make millions, but that’s about as far as it goes unless you happen to work for the Congresspeople, and then you may be able to pick up some scraps of your own.  

Now they prepare to sell us down the river again, engineering another crisis that should never happen (and there was no reason for BSC or LEH to fail at the time either – NOT giving them Billions cost this country Trilllions AND THEY KNEW IT WOULD HAPPEN!).  Here we are though, just 3 years later, entertaining the possibility of letting…
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Things That Make You Go Hmmm – Such As Keeping It Real

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Grant Williams summarizes: “So, keeping it real, what happens now? Well, the debt ceiling will get raised – most likely this weekend – and the usual photo-op of sycophants cheering and applauding behind a podium will be all over the news, but the raise will be just another step on the road to financial ruin for the United  States if it continues to layer fresh debt upon existing debt as a way to solve its problems and turns to printing presses and raised ceilings as the balm of choice. In this kick-the-can culture we now live in since the events of 2008, it’s never that difficult to figure out WHAT the powers-that-be will do (simple: whatever short-term fix involves the least short-term pain to banks and to their own chances of reelection), but it seems to be getting harder to ascertain WHEN they will do it. This is all well and good, except sooner or later they will wake up and find that the adults have decided enough is enough and they’ll vote with their money…So tell me – and keep it real – would YOU lend money to a country with THOSE debt dynamics that is being run by a bunch of incompetent, bickering grandstanders if it DIDN’T possess the world’s reserve currency? Me either.”

Full Things That Make You Go Hmmm, July 31 edition (pdf)

Hmmm Jul 31 2011




Filed Under Exponential

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

By now everyone has seen this, as it has been posted on Zero Hedge about n+1 times. And if the haven’t, they should.

They should also see this. We will shortly update where this chart will be by the 2012 election, somewhere around 120% of GDP.

Source: NYT




Goldman’s Jim O’Neill “Go On President Obama And Congress; Give Us A Nice Pleasant Summer Surprise!”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While there are some undertones of caution in the latest letter from the head of Goldman’s worst performing group (“I suspect the reason why the bond market has rallied and the Dollar and equities have fallen, is because there is going to be a budget deal, which the markets worry will weaken the cyclical GDP growth outlook further“), his bottom line (literally) is precisely what everyone on Wall Street, and everyone else who writes rants against responsible fiscal management (wait, wasn’t Congress responsible 1 year ago? or two years ago? No of course not. It became an emergency a week ago) thinks. And it is as follows: “Go on President Obama and Congress; give us a nice pleasant Summer surprise!” Indeed, when you cut out all the hollow rhetoric of all those whose livelihood depends on the status quoTM and on “borrowing” from the future (cold fusion will certainly help with our energy problems one day… so will the tooth fairy), this is what it is all about.

From Goldman’s Jim O’Neill

PRAYING FOR SOMETHING.

Did you manage to distract yourself from the US budget fiasco this past week? Or did you spend the whole week wondering about what might happen if the US doesn’t pass its debt ceiling on August 2nd? I had a visit from a really smart hedge fund from Outer Space, and the CIO said that he expected US Treasuries to fall significantly as a result of Congress’ inability to reach a deal and the US being downgraded. I told him that while it seemed very sound reasoning, here on Planet Earth, things don’t necessarily pan out that way. In fact, Treasuries would be the major beneficiary as investors adopted a “risk off” mentality and sold higher risk assets instead. Not to confuse my interesting visitor from Outer Space, I did tell him this didn’t apply to the Dollar, which would fall because investors would be far happier owning the Euro despite all its apparent problems. While the US might have a large budget deficit and the global benchmark was on the verge of losing its AAA credit rating, US Treasuries were a better alternative than anything else. Not surprisingly, my new CIO friend decided that he should rapidly disappear. He got in his spaceship and flew away.

I shall…
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Key Macro Catalysts In The Upcoming Week

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Goldman’s Themistoklis Fiotakis summarizes the main events in the upcoming week, which will likely see a very short term bout of buying frenzy on the debt ceiling deal, following by the realization that America can kiss fiscal stimulus goodbye and that real GDP is set to contract over the next quarter to a negative print as the last benefits from QE2 vanish and are replaced by nothing. Also, with the upcoming weekly earning focusing on financial companies as announced yesterday, there will be little help from the only bright spot in the so-called economy, especially with the flashing red sign of the July Nonfarm Payroll Print (consensus +95K, Goldman +50K, even LaSagna +50K) due on Friday. The half life of Europe’s second bailout was under 5 days. We give America about the same.

From Goldman:

Three key themes dominated price action last week: First, the US debt ceiling debate emerged at the forefront of market attention as the Senate and the House of Representatives were not able to reach a solution to raise the US debt ceiling and commit to a credible plan for budget cuts. Uncertainty remains in place as we approach August 2nd, a date that has been suggested as the deadline by which US legislators need to reach a compromise. That said, there may be some room for negotiations to continue for a few more days after that.

Second, rising Italian yields reinforced underlying market nervousness over peripheral European bond market trends. 10y BTP yields rose by 52bp last week on the back of market talk about the risk of a change in the leadership of the Ministry of Finance and the market realization that the EFSF would not be in place to intervene in bond markets until the amendments on its functions are voted for in local parliaments. Risk appetite will be the most important driver of Italian yields in the days ahead, though it would be interesting to watch the Italian GDP release later this week.

Third, US data came in on balance on the soft side with US GDP, the Chicago PMI, and Durable Goods Orders all surprising to the downside. Bright spots were the ongoing strength in German retail spending and labour markets, as well as a positive surprise in initial claims. The coming week will be key…
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Smoking Some Bad Debt Dope?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Leo Kolivakis.

Via Pension Pulse.

All week, I’ve been watching the circus and clowns in Washington make fools out of themselves. The “debt ceiling drama” is annoying me. More smoke & mirrors to scare retail investors away while the big guns load up on risk assets. Let me go over a few key points to convince you to keep buying the dips hard and ignore the debt boogeyman which permeates our mass media every day.

First, take the time to read Peter Coy’s article which appears on yahoo Finance (provided by Bloomberg Businessweek), Why the Debt Crisis Is Even Worse Than You Think. I quote the following:

The language we use is part of the problem. Every would-be budget balancer in Washington should read “On the General Relativity of Fiscal Language,” a brilliant 2006 paper by economists Laurence J. Kotlikoff of Boston University and Jerry Green of Harvard University (available online from the National Bureau of Economic Research). The authors write that accountants and economists have something to learn from Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity, about how measured quantities depend on one’s frame of reference. Terms such as “deficit” and “tax,” they write, “represent numbers in search of concepts that provide the illusion of meaning where none exists.”

 

The national debt itself is one such Einsteinian (that is, squishy) concept. The Treasury Dept.’s punctilious daily accounting of it — $14,342,841,083,049.67 as of July 25, of which just under $14.3 trillion is subject to the ceiling and about $10 trillion is held by the public — gives the impression that it’s as real and tangible as the Washington Monument. But what to include in that sum is ultimately a political choice. For instance, the national debt held by the public doesn’t include America’s obligation to make Social Security payments to future generations of the elderly. Why not?

 

Suppose that instead of paying Social Security payroll taxes, working people used that amount of money to buy bonds from the Social Security Administration, which they would redeem in their retirement years. In such an arrangement, the current and future cash flows would be identical, but because of a simple labeling change the reported debt held by the public would skyrocket. That example alone should generate a certain queasiness about


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Round Up Of This Morning’s Key Political Soundbites

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With a debt ceiling deal now a given and purely a matter of dotting i’s and crossing t’s, potentially pending a several day debt “breathing room” extension to be approved by Obama, whose TV appearance we expect shortly to provide a conclusion to this “grand compromise” farce, here are some of the key soundbites from the three primary constituents as of their media appearances this morning.

 

SENATE MINORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL, A REPUBLICAN, ON CNN:

 

  • “We’re very close to being in a position where hopefully I can recommend to my members they take a serious look at it and support it.”
  • “We’re hoping that we’ll have a significant percentage of them (Republican lawmakers) support it.”
  • “What we’re looking at is a $3 trillion package, a combination of discretionary cuts. Both cuts now, caps over the next 10 years to hold spending in line. And then we’re also going to be voting on a constitutional amendment to balance the budget.”
  • “This is a process that could get him (President Barack Obama) past the election. We’re voting on the combinations that would get us there.”
  • “The trigger issue has been what’s locked us in the extensive discussions … Now I think we’re back in the right place.”

 

SENATOR CHARLES SCHUMER, NO. 3 SENATE DEMOCRAT, ON CNN:

 

  • “There is no final agreement. No one has signed off on a final agreement. So it’s premature to talk about any specifics.”
  • “But default is far less of a possibility now than it was even a day ago because the leaders are talking and talking in a constructive way.”
  • “It seems quite clear that the debt ceiling will be raised enough so that we won’t have to come back to this until 2013.”
  • “Certainly, the enforcement mechanism is one of the key issues that is still being debated and it’s one of the issues that’s made this process go on for so long.”

 

WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC ADVISER GENE SPERLING, ON FOX:

 

  • “There is no question we’re approaching the final hour. And there is no question, as the president has said repeatedly, if there is a will, there are multiple ways to get there.”
  • “Here is the key: whatever that enforcement mechanism is, it has to give both sides an incentive


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Highlights From This Morning’s “Meet The Press”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Below are the key clips from this morning’s Meet The Press which is devoted exclusively to proponents of the status quoTM, whose entire argument boils down to the syllogistic: “cut spending yes… but not today…never today” In fact, it is best to make any cuts the next administration’s problem. So assuming Obama gets reelected, and there is another debt ceiling hike, which there will have to be, it means about $7 trillion on top of the currently debated $3 trillion, whoever inherits this mess from Obama (who in turn inherited his mess from Bush, who in turn inherited his mess from Clinton, and so on), will have $24 trillion debt to deal with on day 1, with about $16-17 trillion of GDP. And that person will have to cut spending? What idiot would want that job? Anyway, we fully expect the paid government workers from the rating agencies to shortly upgrade the US to AAA+ on renewed growth prospects courtesy of 140% debt to GDP in 5 years… and that excludes the $7 trillion in off balance sheet GSE debt.

Summary highlights:

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Interview with White House advisor David Plouffe:

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Plouffe part 2:

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Plouffe part 3:

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Plouffe part 4:

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Plouffe part 5

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Brokaw, Granholme, Labrador and… Jim “Buy Bear Stearns Cramer” ???

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Brokaw, Granholme, Labrador and Cramer – part 2

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Disorderly Conduct

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Miles Kendig.

 

Phil's Favorites

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner  

I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc.  The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in p...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Zero Hedge

Debt Ceiling 101, Santelli Sounds Off

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In an effort to reach the angry mob, CNBC's Rick Santelli goes all Sesame Street on the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).

...

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Chart School

ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).

Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...



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Market Montage

Average Age of U.S. Vehicles Hits Record 10.8 Years

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high.  Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...



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Insider Scoop

Research in Motion Surging after Prem Watsa Stake

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.

Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.

Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.

Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.

...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 1/27/2012

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...

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ETF Selector

Wall Street Party Hangover (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday

Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party.  The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.

The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...



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Option Review

Big Prints In Deutsche Bank Put Options

 

Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general! AA Money Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance. Previous week P&L - $400.00 We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium! FAS Money We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope. Previous week P&L - $4372.00...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: QE-cating

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating.  Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)

Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game.  More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline.  In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up.  I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect.  I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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