Courtesy of Doug Short.
The S&P 500 opened with a giant pop in the first five minutes, up about 1.4%, and doubled the advance to close at the daily high of 1198.62, a gain of 2.86%. The Fed’s Beige Book, data though August 26th, led with the observation that “economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace.” That was sufficient for the market to lock in the gains. The index is in the red year-to-date at -4.69%, which is 12.10% below the interim high set on April 29.
From an intermediate perspective, the index is 77.2% above the March 2009 closing low and 23.4% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
