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Swing trading portfolio – week of September 12th, 2011

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

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Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio


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  1.  

    Craig-Hallum positive on Marvell, LSI Corp. Applied Micro, and Mindspeed

    Craig-Hallum said Buy rated Marvell (MRVL), LSI Corp. (LSI), Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC), and Mindspeed (MSPD) are plays in the sectors that Broadcom (BRCM) noted as attractive and reasons for it NetLogic (NETL) acquisition


  2. lululemon target raised to $60 from $53 at RBC Capital
    RBC Capital increased its target on lululemon after the company reported Q2 results that the firm views as exceptionally strong. The firm maintains an Outperform rating on the stock. :theflyo


  3. Marvell Technology upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna
    Susquehanna upgraded shares citing favorable risk/reward in 2012. Price target raised to $17 from $15. :theflyonthewall.com


  4. FedEx downgraded at BofA/Merrill
    As previously reported, BofA/Merrill downgraded FedEx to Neutral from Buy. The firm cites potential volume pressure from a slowdown in GDP growth for the downgrade. Price target lowered to $80 from $115. :theflyonthewall.com


  5. BlackBerry sees growth in developing countries, WSJ reports
    Strong demand for BlackBerrys in the developing world is increasing hopes that Research in Motion (RIMM) may be able to grow even as its market share slides in the U.S. and other major countries, reports the Wall Street Journal.


  6. Cree downgraded to Sell from Hold at Wunderlich
    Wunderlich downgraded Cree to Sell citing worldwide semiconductor weakness and channel checks that indicate excess inventory. The firm dropped its price target for shares to $25 from $34. :theflyonthewall.com


  7.  Strong bounce


  8. Went back to some TSCO this morning… great bounce! The chart’s looked great for a while now, but the options get fairly illiquid.


  9.  Used this bounce to get out of FNSR calls


  10.  OPEN still weak. Interesting.


  11.  Opt – look at NVDA behaviour over past 4 days


  12. Good Morning,
    I just joined and I’m learning about options.  What’s the difference between the swing trader portfolio and the one trade?


  13. GS new lows..possible inidcator of things to come for broader market.


  14. Still looking for CAT at 75 at some point


  15. What CAT needs to do is do what X did a few months ago off a similar chart.


  16.  If we break 1140, things might get interesting.


  17.  NVDA-Yes, I have been watching. It is showing some nice overall strength overall. And so is MRVL.


  18. Zerohedge really can make this stuff funny.
    "It is a day ending in -y, which means the TOTUS will be out there, somewhere, sharing all the juicy fiscal wonders still untapped and hidden deep in his magic sleeve, from whence they will be pulled after the American Jobs Act (the most recent Keynesian flashbang grenade to be lobbed at the middle class), fizzles out."
     
    Keynesian flashbang grenade. :-)


  19. I do get a great kick out of reading the Zerohedge stuff, Kallen!


  20.  Silver and Gold stocks weak.


  21.  Welcome to the board, Mandeep. The portfolios are very similar, except that the ONE trade has only one or two trades in it. It is riskier, as we sometimes are not balanced at all. But it is easier to follow, as it is less active. 

    I have not made any trades in this portfolio lately, but I am planning to do so as soon as this market gets out of this flag.


  22. Opt you said "If we break 1140, things might get interesting."
    But we dropped to 1120 twice in Aug but it did not stick.  So do you mean we might drop back down to 1120 range or are you thinking it would not hold this time?


  23.  Yes, tangledweb. I think we drop to 1,120 area if we break 1,140. But in this case, I was only talking about things getting interesting intraday, as there are probably a lot of stops in this area. 

    For the longer term, as you know, I still believe we break the lows at 1,100. But that’s of course if we don’t bounce at the bottom of the flag one more time. At some point we will get a bounce in Europe where the markets are down much more, and that might trigger a bounce here as well. But I still think the Euro keeps dropping, which is bearish for the markets over the long run.


  24. That pump in SNDK was complete BS


  25. Wow… cheap Euro right now. And NFLX being annoyingly strong.  :|


  26. Has summer trading ended yet?  Can’t tell if it has..


  27.  Bought a little bit of AGU puts. Ags look weak.


  28. Continuously flirting with the bottom of this flag makes me nervous — which way will it break? I for one am tightening stops up before lunch today…


  29. Fifth Monday in a row we’ve tried to go up in the AM (and most of the day) and stay green (c > o) for the day.  Gap up we go up, gap down we go up, gap down again, we go up.  Last time market went down in AM on Mon was at beg of Aug.
    SI at its intermediate term trendline


  30. And it’s fighting the dollar which has bumped up (or at least UUP) but there was quite a long lag before S&P and VXX did the corresponding change instead of the usual instant response.


  31.  If you have not rolled everything to October, it is a good time to do it while the market is dropping and IV is rising. Only keep verticals and horizontals for this month.


  32.  OPEN keeps going :-)


  33. DB Puts have been a pretty good Euro based trade.
    -ken


  34.  They managed to protect the 1140 area for now.


  35. SUPPOSEDLY… the Italian bond report provided support


  36. GC short looks good.  Stop abv the high @ 182


  37. SI too


  38.  whats with NFLX?


  39. Not sure what’s up w/NFLX other than it putting a huge damper on my day. Zero traction over here b/c of its moves today. Thinking about dumping some of mine on the (I hope) next dip.


  40.  Got some GMCR calls. 1/2 position with 3.5% stop by EOD.


  41.  ALTR strong


  42. AAPL bouncing off its daily trendline again.


  43.  The craziness never stops.


  44.  See everyone tomorrow for some more fun.


  45.  Still playing inside that flag.


  46. Well — that does it. I’m not opening any new positions for a few days. Damn you, flag! :D


  47.  

    Starbucks’ Q4 same-store-sales momentum on track, says UBS
    UBS said its data indicates Starbucks’ same-store-sales momentum is above its 6% estimate for Q4. The firm rates shares a Buy with a $47 price target. :theflyonthewall.co


  48.  

    Netflix initiated with a Neutral at Susquehanna
    Target $216. :theflyonthewall.com


  49. Apple iPhone, iPad demand very strong, says RBC Capital
    After conducting checks, RBC Capital reports that the percentage of people very likely to buy the iPhone 5 significantly exceeds the percentage who were very likely to buy the iPhone 4 before its launch. The firm’s data shows strong iPad 2 back-to-school buying trends, and RBC Capital maintains a $500 target and Outperform rating on the stock. :theflyonthewall.com


  50. Apple should initiate a dividend or repurchase shares, says Morgan Stanley
    Morgan Stanley believes Apple’s best use of its excess cash is to initiate a dividend or repurchase shares, which would be accretive to shareholders. Morgan Stanley rates Apple an Overweight with a $470 price target, up from $468. :theflyonthewall.com


  51.  Interesting triangle on AAPL. WIth the lower line following the 50MA. A break would be significant.


  52.  

    Nvidia coverage assumed with an Outperform at Wedbush
    Target $18. :theflyonthewall.com


  53.  /OS Sold 1/3 GMCR calls.


  54. DECK – Moving up.


  55. BRK/B- bought some calls


  56.  SODA doing well


  57. Interesting SPY weekly chart posted by Pharm over in Phil’s section earlier today. It indicated a potential slowdown or reversal at SPY 118, which is accurate at least for the past few minutes.


  58.  SODA-You are still long? I closed mine the other day. Would look good if it breaks $42


  59.  Amazing how closely we are still following the EUR/USD.


  60.  TTWO looking good for puts


  61.  SODA- yes, has not closed below the 5dma yet. I am long fro $41, so nothing going yet


  62.  
     
    Longs
    AAPL
    COST
    SODA
    DECK
    ALTR
     

    Shorts
    CRM
    OPEN
    C
    NFLX
    CMG

     


  63.  Thanks for the update. How is the experiment going with the "automated" trades? Still performing fine in this crazy market?


  64. How many times are we going to see this bs pattern?  Run it up like crazy first 1/2 hour then just let it bleed from there.  CAT biggest bs market today — $2+ in 1/2 hour.  LOL. 


  65. I can only think that the guys running this market want to get to the golf course in the morning so we end up getting this..same thing same way..one of these days it will change.


  66. but if something’s predictable, Brima, we can make a buck off it – unless we don’t quite trust it.


  67. SNDK- looking interesting for short.  Someday they will stop printing green bars.


  68. on the daily…


  69. PEP strong


  70. The most predictable thing in markets most of the time is change


  71.  I have been flat p&L wise since the initial drop of mid August.  So it has kept all of the profit and waiting for the next large move in either direction.  I will give you a weekly break down later to show the performance through the drop and since so you can get an idea of how it has performed.  Remind you that I have only been all in or out and really only traded the last half hour of the day


  72.  Have you guys given back any money from the big drop into August we nailed?


  73. I’ve given back all my profits from that drop, English. Poorly-placed & improperly held/sold trades within this flag have eaten me up.


  74. English, I’d say if you’re flat trading the 5ma strategy since we went into the bear flag that’s pretty darn good. 


  75. SINA


  76. Ha – NFLX now breaking below the point where I dumped part of my position yesterday. Sigh!


  77. ARIA – asc flag looks like it could resolve higher.
    CMCSA – stonger
    DAL breaking out


  78. FSLR possibly putting in a base on the daily


  79. My TSCO calls are still rocking :)


  80. CMG- http://features.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2011/09/12/chipotles-growth-machine/
    First burritos now egg rolls. I don’t discount this at all. Anything positive here could whip the stock higher.


  81. that’s okay Carter, NFLX puts are red today, even though the stock is down $3 


  82.  English, like you we had an amazing end of July/ beginning of August. Then it was pretty bad through the end of August, and the last week or so has been better. 


  83.  CMG-I agree Pstas, there is definitely an opportunity in Asian food, if they execute well.


  84. Opt — are you going to grab another little bit of AAPL if they break out of that range to the upside? Getting close…


  85.  Yes, I was actually thinking about it on AAPL.


  86.  


  87.  /OS Sold 1/3 DECK calls, as it is at resistance (see chart above). 


  88.  That was some bounce on TTWO


  89.  might buy some BBY puts


  90.  BBY-Probably a good idea. I don’t see them going anywhere, even if valuation is low here.


  91.  FSLR very strong. Chart looks bullish.


  92.  /OS Sold another 1/3 GMCR calls. I don’t like this candle very much.


  93. FSLR- bullish- yeah, I know. That bullish reversal took away a good portion of my profits on riding that thing down. I want to pull my hair out sometimes.


  94.  APA acting well.


  95.  /OS Sold last GMCR calls. Will replace with FSLR before close.


  96.  Those swings…


  97.  FSLR looks good. I don’t need any calls but considering replacing COST calls with FSLR.  COST has been fine but stalled out a bit.  Just debating whether COST would be a good hedge for BBY anyhow and may be worth just hanging out with what I have on the long side


  98.  /OS Sold last 1/3 CMG


  99.  going to close CMG and CRM puts and add BBY puts.
    I will then sell half of my DECK calls, so go home 4 x 4 with a little DECK on as a fifth man on the long side.  The chart still looks good but this one likes to turn around fast


  100.  ALTR calls acting well


  101.  crazy how much they have hammered the NFLX puts today


  102. I know it, English. My remaining NFLX put (not plural!) languished all day today. I joined you on a few BBY puts!
     
    ‘Night, all.


  103.  

    Apple may refresh MacBook Pro line by year-end, AppleInsider reports
    AppleInsider has learned that Apple (AAPL) could be preparing a refresh of its MacBook Pro line ahead of the holiday shopping season. The late-2011 MacBook Pro refresh will deliver "marginal speed bumps" to the notebooks’ Core i-Series of Sandy Bridge processors but will otherwise introduce no material changes over the existing models, according to people familiar with Apple’s product plans.


  104. Intel valuation remains compelling, says Cowen
    Cowen believes the personal computing industry is about to enter a new era and said the industry is focused on whether Intel can maintain its dominant position. The firm views Intel shares as a compelling value due to its high dividend yield, management leadership, new partnerships with Google (GOOG), and the potential to be involved in new operating systems in the future. Shares are Outperform rated. :thefly


  105. RadioShack estimates lowered following Best Buy results at UBS
    UBS lowered RadioShack (RSH) estimates citing Best Buy (BBY) results and industry data and said tablet momentum will not be enough to offset a recent slate of weak handset launches. Shares are Neutral rated with a new price target of $13, down from $16. :theflyonthewall.com


  106.  rolled up my SODA calls


  107. Sold some DECK & SNDK.


  108.  sold a little delta off in ALTR


  109.  sold a tiny bit off BBY puts, nice little drop on the open, still full


  110. AGU     getting crushed on puts     is it time to adjust?


  111.  GMCR looking good for puts


  112.  AGU- are you in September puts?


  113. Sampuran7,

    AGU-What do you mean by "adjust"? You should not really be "crushed" by a move like that and should have more than made up for it in the last 2 days with DECK calls for example. Did you follow the rules for position sizing?

    Let me know if you need some help on that.


  114.  Reduced size by 1/3 on FSLR. Does not look very strong here. Might add back if it pulls back to 5MA.


  115.  GMCR- indeed, I may add those later as I need another put at some point.  


  116.  C red now


  117.  Sampuran, I say this about AGU especially as we never made it a full position. You should have around a 6% stop right now, and really not being affected much.

    Also, that chart is still bearish, so no adjustment so far.


  118.  I did get some GMCR puts. Let’s see the close today to decide if we make it a position.


  119.  bought a little GMCR puts to start, could not wait


  120. English   AGU puts       Yes September


  121.  You should have been out of September puts for a week now


  122. Optrader    Stops    Per the strategy section I was setting my stop at just above the 5MA on the 1 month chart      can you explain 6% stop    goal is to learn here     


  123.  6% stop is just usually what OPT picks to initiate a small position, 6% being a wide stop.
     
    For ease, I would recommend picking a percentage of ATR as a stop to be consistent across your positions until you get more comfortable 


  124. English    Agreed        am dowm 65%     can you suggest a roll at this point


  125. Cramer has reversed his position on tech.  He is now recommending tech because of seasonal factors.  Okay all you lemmings rush in !


  126.  what do you have on?


  127.  Sampuran, we never buy puts so close to expiration. Always give yourself at least a week. This is way too risky.

    For stops, the 5MA is the stop in the chart. But for position sizing, we use around 1R stop for full position, and usually in this market we start with 5%-6% and build on it. Only when I post with /OS or /OB, and it is in the spreadsheet above, so we make it a full position.

    When I say a 6% stop it means that if the stock moves 6% against you, then you will only lose 1R (between 3% and 4%)  of your account. So your loss on this position should really be minimal, and like I said earlier other positions should more than make up for it.

    Position sizing and portfolio management are the most important parts of trading. It makes ally he difference between being overall profitable or not.


  128. Interesting day so far… I’m mostly watching and taking profit at this point because things look pretty iffy.
     
    Going in on a little bit of SLV calls here for the day, though. Casino time.


  129.  This is just all over the place today


  130. SNDK- out for now.  Waiting for DECK to come down closer to the 5MA for possible re-load.


  131. Have been playing TZA stock instead of puts.  It’s very liquid, and I find it easier to trade than indiv stocks.  Not making much because of the lack of leverage, but easy to get in and out of.  And it moves.


  132. Optrader     Thanks for the clarification       I’ll go back and study that part of the strategy     any other resources you recomend?


  133.  Yes, Sampuran, the book with the cheesiest title out there, but best book I have read about trading and recommended to everyone here: Van Tharp


  134. Opt – AAPL breaking out of triangle?


  135.  AAPL-Yes it is. Still some resistance at 392 though.


  136.  Also, they might keep it around 390 for expiration.


  137. Good point.


  138.  Looks like CSCO is finally clearing some hurdles


  139.  Shorted some PWRD. Looks like it is about to fall off that cliff. 


  140. Yikes… hindsight is 20/20. Yesterday’s candle for RIMM looked like a fairly bearish indicator… that would’ve indeed been a fun one to take a small nibble on.


  141.  NTAP weak


  142. AKAM strong.


  143. CMG hanging out right at the top of the channel it’s been in… and flattening out. Keeping an eye on that one… it still owes me some money!


  144. (PS — I know that buying a CMG put would go against the system right now… careful, careful…)


  145. CMG – The 50 dMA has proven to be strong resistance for the last two weeks.


  146.  CVC interesting if it weren’t CVC


  147.  /OS Sold another 1/3 FSLR calls.


  148. Is this a low volume bot driven melt up? I don’t see any news driving market up.
    -ken


  149.  nice bounce in DECK


  150. Yeah, and I didn’t get back in.


  151.  annoying bounce in BBY though, they must be buying back some shares here


  152.  Anyone see a good put?  
     
    Longs maybe
    FWLT
    DOW
    WM
    MMM
    AXP


  153. puts – Hate to bring up the same old names but RIMM might work.
    AKAM Calls ?


  154.  possible shorts
    CAG
    MHS
    ESRX
    CVI


  155.  Wow, that is coming out of nowhere.


  156.  And not good for calendars that it is happening 2 days before expiration.


  157.  We are approaching the top of the flag. Unbelievable.


  158. Sold 2/3 BRK/B- nice run. I think a lot of this gets reversed.


  159. DECK- sold my last calls. Again, I think this goes down from here.


  160. Huh… that dip just made FSLR stronger. Maybe it’s a decent call after all!


  161. I’m skeptical of such a quick (and apparently low volume?) runup as well, Pstas. Holding firm on puts that are close to 5dma for the evening.
     
    But I’m always wrong!


  162.  WOW, already had to roll down ESRX puts and only had them on for 10 minutes


  163.  I sold my last DECK as well, I figure that near 100 was enough for now


  164. Carter- it seems I am also- wrong that is. This just does not feel right.


  165.  crazy finish on top of a crazy day


  166.  Wow, again.


  167. NFLX tanking ! ! !


  168. Netflix falls 16%, at lowest level since Marchat MarketWatch(Thu 7:48AM EDT


  169.  

    New Sony tablet more distinctive than other iPad competitors, All Things D says

    Some unique design features, software tweaks and content services may help Sony’s (SNE) new Tablet S stand apart from Apple’s (AAPL) iPad in a way that other competitors have failed to do, according to a review of the device by an All Things Digital contributor.


  170.  Holy NFLX batman


  171.  Nice on NFLX :-)


  172.  Unfortunately I still have some calendar on it. WIth some short September 200′s, so won’t pay off as much as it should have. I really thought I was safe with those and could let them expire.


  173.  

    Netflix cuts Q3 Domestic subscriber estimates
    Sees Q3 Domestic subscirber 21.8M for Streaming and 14.2M for DVD vs. prior guidance of 22M for Streaming and 15M for DVD. CEO Reed Hastings commented: "Despite the guidance revision, we remain convinced that the splitting of our services was the right longterm strategic choice." :theflyonthewall.com


  174.  

    Perfect World cuts Q3 revenue view to RMB702M-RMB741M
    Previously announced revenue guidance was RMB756M-RMB803M. This represents a moderate decline in revenue on a sequential basis, but still an increase of 21%- 28% on a year-over-year basis for the company’s core online game business. In order to further enhance the content of the company’s portfolio and lengthen the life cycle of its existing games, the company decided to slow down in-game promotional activities for some of its existing games in Q3. The company believes that such fluctuation is only temporary and is a part of the normal product cycle. So far during Q3, the company has released a series of expansion packs for its existing games and plans to roll out a few more, including a major expansion pack for its flagship game Zhu Xian by the end of the quarter. :theflyo


  175. Opt
    Whats your take on SODA and OPEN for Puts? If you were to short these two, what will be the prices or levels? Thanks.


  176.  You have some PWRD puts, correct?  That should make up for some of the NFLX


  177. Wow. What’s the quickest way to take maximum profits on NFLX if one expects a bounce back up from that low? Market order on open? I think I want out of this one quickly & will re-evaluate that position later.


  178.  PWRD-I have some short stock.


  179. lol@ nflx – they claim the problem was splitting services rather than raising rates, effective September? That was why I and a number of my relatives cancelled.


  180.  Carter, I would not go with a market order. If you think that it is going to bounce (which I am not sure personally, but who knows), just buy some stock pre-market.


  181.  chakra, the question should not really be where you want to short them. The question should be where should you put your stop.

    You can short both here if you want, and have a stop at yesterday’s high.

    Or you can wait for them to cross below the 5MA, and keep your stop on the 5MA.


  182.  Carter, yes, buy some stock against a portion of your delta. I bought some stock at 178 when I turned my computer on


  183.  Huge jump in the Euro


  184. Yeah, I do try to stay away from market orders. It’s just down so hard right now that I’m wanting to pocket every last buck of the drop. Craziness. Great drop on PWRD as well.
     
    This dollar drop is going to make things very interesting on open…


  185.  Wish I had some PWRD, not sure why I did not go with that one instead of GMCR, I guess I forgot about it after you mentioned it as I did not need a put at the time.  Good one


  186. Opt – Great move on PWRD yesterday.


  187.  Don’t have to do anything right here, because my delta dropped exactly to 0. I guess I am just booking that here.


  188.  Covered 1/2 of PWRD short. Very nice.


  189.  PWRD-When I said yesterday that PWRD was ready to fall off the cliff, I had no idea it would be such a steep one. 

    Feels nice to get lucky once in a while.


  190.  GMCR


  191. PWRD — that was the quickest double I’ve seen yet!


  192. PWRD- good call on that.
    GMCR- Look at that


  193.  Rolled down my NFLX puts and took off about 1/3 of my delta, sold the stock I bought.
    GMCR looking good


  194.  ESRX kicking in now


  195. Thought you were in GMCR calls, opt? 


  196.  Covered another 1/4 of PWRD.


  197. GMCR-No, we are in puts. 


  198. GMCR- We bought puts yesterday morning, see post at 10:03. We sold all calls the day before. I don;t have a full position yet, but will add on a bounce.


  199.  AMZN weak.


  200.  sold some ESRX puts


  201.  I bought some STAA stock yesterday before close. Only because of the chart, I have no idea what it is. But it is very strong today, up 6% now and breaking resistance. If anyone needs some bullish play with very high beta. Just be careful as it looks pretty risky.


  202. ESRX – Nice


  203. GMCR – Oops. Yes, I see now. Didn’t need puts/didn’t follow that trade closely.


  204.  That PWRD has absolutely gotten its salad tossed


  205.  BBY is annoying 


  206.  What a day!


  207.  LNKD weak. Tempting to jump back into this one, with a stop at the 50MA. But the spread is ugly.


  208.  PWRD -18% !!


  209.  ARNA showing some signs of life ….


  210.  ARNA-Yes, finally broke the 50MA. Let’s see if it can close above it.


  211.  rolled ESRX down for the 3rd time


  212.  /OS Sold last FSLR


  213. Whew… OPEN finally ducking back down under 5DMA.


  214.  If GMCR keeps going like this, we won’t need to add any. English, you went full right away, right?


  215. LNKD- I am taking a shot at this- bought some Oct bear put spreads and sold some higher calls to offset the cost. Small entry to start off. Being cautious but agree, it looks weak.


  216. Edit… maybe OPEN bouncing off of 5DMA. We’ll see.


  217. Opt – Of all stocks in the universe with bearish charts, why on earth did you pick PWRD ?


  218.  CMG tempting too


  219.  PWRD-It was weak yesterday in a very strong market. And it was breaking a very important line of support (that’s why I posted that it was about to fall off a cliff). 

    But really, it was mostly luck, it could as well have bounced after taking the stops below support. 

    Sometimes you can catch one, sometimes it goes against you. We had our share of news going against us as well. My philosophy is that if you go with the chart and follow trend and support/resistance, then more often than not the news will go your way, as the chart very often precedes the news. But again, that was mostly luck that it went down so much on us, so don’t try to read too much into it.


  220.  


  221.  MRVL has been in a beautiful trend


  222.  This market is still absolutely driven by the EUR/USD. My feeling is that the Euro is going to keep dropping, probably to at least the $1.20 area. That being said, that chart is turning somewhat bullish on the daily. So let’s monitor this. 

    We might have to turn bullish, even if only temporary. Especially if SPX breaks out of that flag. The close today is key.


  223.  


  224. Back in 2008 during summer there was a large divergence between NQ and ES and YM..in that decending order.  YM was the weakest of all the indexes in a bear market.  We have a similar thing going on now.  In 2009 and afterwards, YM almost always trails the ES and certainly NQ mostly, until rotation pumps YM and it catches up.  However, if that sort of behavior fails to materialize here soon, then YM and ES might be telling us another sell off is coming probably sooner rather than later.
    The pump monkeys piled into the banks today after ignoring them yesterday.  However the industrial stocks are still lagging this rally.


  225.  PWRD might actually be interesting for a long when it turns. Let’s keep an eye on it.


  226.  Well, some strong bounce on GMCR.


  227.  Actually went for a small long on SPWR. Just a little for fun.


  228. If aapl were not the biggest, badest company out there I’d say that daily chart looks ugly with those big swings in the channel to retest the high.  Normally, I’d look for that pattern to fail first then perhaps move higher but it’s aapl and any prognostication to the downside usually has a low probability of succeeding.  However, that channel looks ugly and this grind higher suspicious.


  229.  CTRP bearish.


  230. GOOG has been lagging lately.  Starting to wake up?


  231. AFL bottom


  232.  That’s really some crazy action on GMCR. How can this drop 5% and then bounce all the way back?


  233.  GMCR-This smells strongly like option expiration manipulation.


  234. THey took the second peak about 1.5% past the first peak in NQ.  We’ve got that third peak though we might kiss 1250 on the SP before turning so that could put NQ around 2300.


  235.  Bought a little bit of RIMM puts


  236. Doesn’t  RIMM have earnings today?


  237. Yep — RIMM earnings today.


  238. CAT turning


  239. If we close around here or higher in ES, it’s already starting to look like a 4th of July meltup on the daily.


  240. Couple puts on PFE (Pfizer) for a short-term play. Lots of scary news about Neosporin possibly helping to spread drug-resistant MRSA infections in hospitals. http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/749666
     
    Worth a quick stab on a day like today, maybe.


  241. Holy cow !   I just noticed that MA is trading up at an all-time high.  V not far behind.


  242. NFLX just won’t stop. Unbelievable.


  243. NFLX is taking it. The previous CEO couldn’t have timed his departure any better.


  244.  /OS Let’s sell 1/3 NFLX puts in portfolio. No need to be greedy here. 


  245. Anyone have any decent strategies for earnings days? I don’t like holding anything right before earnings, but RIMM is definitely behaving well… add a high call against the current puts to make a spread, maybe? Just get out at close?


  246.  Ooopss, forgot about RIMM earnings. Will sell those puts before close. 

    Carter, it depends which ones you have. I like doing spreads for earnings. Short the stock or further-out puts, and sell front month.


  247.  Should have bought those SHLD yesterday


  248. I have Oct 30 puts on RIMM, Opt.
     
    Just now noticing that GMCR hasn’t closed below the 5dma in 13 days. Maybe this’ll be the one…


  249.  GMCR- I stepped for a bit and just got back, wow.  


  250.  rolled up ALTR calls


  251.  JNPR and PCLN weak


  252.  Going to probably close C and BBY puts and add PCLN and JNPR puts.  Any objections?


  253.  Buying some AMZN calls before close.


  254.  Let’s also close our APA puts


  255.  Following you on JNPR puts, English


  256. BRK/B- back to 2/3 on the calls. See, Carter, I was wrong.


  257.  Would have been a very good day without this crazy run.


  258. But this same crazy run has happened 3 days in a row.   What is the expression: "The market can remain chaotic longer than you can remain solvent."


  259. Optrader   Thanks for the NFLX and PWRD calls   That was fun!


  260. irrational


  261.  great day anyway


  262. The crazy NFLX & PWRD drops made it a good day. If not for those two positions I’d be pretty annoyed at things right now, which means I’m still staying very cautious. Seems like I was not biased bullish enough for the most part. Adjust adjust adjust!


  263. Wow… RIMM. That’s three great scores today! :D


  264.  

    Apple iPhone 5 announcement coming soon, with web already abuzz, NY Times says
    Apple’s (AAPL) official announcement of its new iPhone 5 may come within the next few weeks, according to an Apple staffer who declined to be named, reported The New York Times, noting that the volume of chatter about the device on the Web is rapidly accelerating.


  265. Netflix downgraded to Average from Above Average at Caris
    Caris downgraded Netflix citing the company’s reduced domestic subscriber guidance and cut its price target for shares to $195 from $322. :the


  266. RIMM worked well, altho only went thru earnings with 1/2 of what I had.  Gamble.


  267.  rolled up COST calls, still full


  268. Wow… reaaaaaaly good morning so far…


  269. ARNA


  270.  /OS Sold 1/3 AMZN calls.


  271.  NFLX has been unreal, almost an 8R profit here, rolled down again


  272.  ARNA flying. Really good bounce on PWRD as well.


  273.  would love to see AAPL pin at $400


  274. Maybe AAPL gets pinned at 400?   Maybe wishful thinking.


  275.  sold a little COST calls, still full


  276. COST -Well done English -you’re on a roll !


  277.  Rolled up AAPL calls, proud owner of the OCT 400 calls at 14.50


  278.  We bought NFLX puts at $249. It is now down 35% from where we bought them. 

    If you simply followed the portfolio (and did not get calendars), this is a huge winner! And still running with 1/3 left.

    Like we always say, those trades are what makes a portfolio really get ahead, and make the big difference at the end of the year.


  279.  Reminds me the X trade last year. And many like this the year before. With the leverage of puts, that makes it even bigger.


  280. I’ve hung in w/TSCO instead of COST for a bit now — very similar looking charts!


  281. Of course now that I type that, I see that COST is way out above past levels from three months back, and that TSCO still has to contend with topping those levels. Looks great, English :D


  282.  yes, and I did not even press it, meaning I took some off on the first big drop and have sold off extra delta with each big drop.  I have stayed full, but could have done even better if I just kept rolling down the higher delta and steamrolling it, but easier said than done when you get a big gap drop like that.  I am not going to touch the delta anymore, still full, only to roll the options around.


  283.  The X trade was even much better, but I did not get the full glory of that one. I think you had a 17R profit and kept pressing it.  That is still the king


  284.  Yes, English, I did not do as much as you could have either, because of calendars.

    In fact this week, I did not do as good as all as the portfolio here, because I had calendars on many positions.

    On AAPL for example, the calendar did not work well because it has kept going up. The whole market has been going up like crazy during this last week of expiration and it is of course not good for those spreads.

    That is pretty much the inverse of the discussions we used to have before, when the spreads were acting much better than the straight long calls/puts. Really depends on market conditions.


  285.  Feels nice to be on the right side of those crazy AMZN breakouts.


  286.  Yes, X was crazy.


  287.  AMZN- Crazy that these stocks are breaking to new ALL TIME highs


  288.  We got back to the top of our flag. Obviously, that 1220 line is critical

     


  289.  JNPR starting to kick in gear



  290. Opt – chart question….doesn’t the flag on the S&P also show a higher high? Isn’t that a good sign that we break upwards? Thanks.


  291.  sold a little JNOR puts around 20, still full


  292.  Nicha, when I say that 1220 is critical, I mean both ways. Obviously if we close above it, then it will be bullish. Especially if we break the 50MA.


  293.  be back in a couple of hours, I have some offers out in some stuff at support and resistance.  Good luck all


  294.  DRIV looking good


  295.  GMCR with another one of its bounces.


  296.  DRIV !


  297. AMZN – great timing.  Are you still short some stock for LTP ?


  298. VXX is supposed to represent volitility but really only represents if the market is rising or falling.  These days we need a volitility index of VXX that is higher the faster/further  VXX swings.


  299.  This AMZN/JNPR pair trade working very well.


  300.  AMZN-No, I don’t have any more in LTP. Closed that a while ago.


  301. Excellent.


  302.  DRIV looks good, may buy some calls there later to replace my SODA calls


  303.  NFLX cranking down again I see


  304. English    You rolled your NFLX puts down earlier to reduce delta.  Does that increase your leverage?  Just want to understand the concept. 


  305.  I rolled down as my delta of my puts passed .70 or so.  In doing so, I went after an ATM strike and bought enough to get back to my full original delta.  This will enable me to lock in some profit and lower the delta of my individual options so that if it pulls back, I will not give back as much as I have made on the way down.  I also benefit from further leverage to the downside as the option has more room to grow.  The downside is I am purchasing more premium into high IV, but there is a lot of time to go until OCT expiration and a lot of profit was locked in.


  306.  I currently have the 165 puts and will look again probably in the 145-140 area for another roll down if I am that fortunate.  Otherwise the next move will probably be to roll up if it makes a rally attempt at the 5dma in the next week or so and can try and get back to the 180-185 range.


  307. Enlish   Thanks     That makes a lot of sense      I’ll watch and see how it works


  308.  Any news on AMZN today?


  309.  I think AMZN just triggered every short stop in the market when it broke to new highs


  310. My wild guess PFE puts are finally rockin’ :D


  311.  AMZN-Well, in any case, I am truly enjoying being on that side of the squeeze LOL.


  312.  PFE, SUN, or CF for puts?  Thinking of replacing my PCLN puts


  313.  bought SUN puts and selling PCLN puts


  314.  AMZN-Can they pin $240?


  315.  Very good day for the portfolio! Enjoy your weekend!


  316.  AMZN- crazy, good job.  Have a great weekend everyone, see you all on Monday!


  317. AMZN today calls — up 450% in three hours. Hope everyone else had a great day too.


  318. FDX- from Andrew Wilkerson:
    FDX - FedEx Corp. – Bearish activity cropped up in FedEx Corp. call and put options within minutes of the opening bell this morning. Shares in the provider of transportation, e-commerce and business services are down 1.9% to stand at $75.59 as of 11:40 am ET, with less than one week to go before the Memphis, Tennessee-based company is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings. Yesterday, FedEx rival, UPS, reaffirmed its full year earnings guidance, but warned of difficult economic conditions and anemic growth. Traders positioning for shares in FedEx to extend losses, and possibly dip to new 52-week lows ahead of October expiration, initiated a few different bearish strategies in the first half of the session. Plain-vanilla put buying ensued at the Oct. $77.5 strike, where roughly 1,900 in-the-money puts were purchased for an average premium of $4.07 apiece. Investors long the puts profit at expiration next month if shares in FDX slide 2.85% from the current price of $75.59 to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $73.43.
    Most of the volume in FedEx options was generated by one strategist, who initiated a three-legged bearish spread straight out of the gate this morning. It looks like the investor sold 2,500 calls at the Oct. $85 strike in order to purchase the 2,500-lot Oct. $67.5/$75 put spread. The transaction cost the trader a net premium of $0.90 per contract. The investor may be employing the three-way spread to take finance an outright bearish view on the stock, or could be using the trade to hedge a long position in the underlying shares. Profits are available to the trader should shares in FDX drop 2.0% to breach the effective breakeven price of $74.10 by expiration day. The investor may walk away with maximum potential profits of $6.60 per contract if the price of the underlying plunges 10.7% in the next five weeks to trade below $67.50 at October expiration. Shares in FedEx last traded below $67.50 back in August 2009. The stock is down 23.4% off its multi-year high of $98.66 on July 7.