Courtesy of Doug Short.
Note from dshort: This update includes a postscript with charts highlighting the Nikkei performance since the earthquake on March 11, nearly six months ago. I was reminded of this commentary because on Tuesday of this week (September 6th), the index fell fractionally below the interim low three days after the March earthquake.
Here is a look at the Nikkei 225 which gives an overview of the cyclical rallies and their duration during Japan’s secular bear market, now in its 21st year.
I’ve been posting a weekly update of a mega-bear market charts (here) that includes Japan’s Nikkei 225. In addition, every few months I update an inflation-adjusted overlay of the Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 bubbles.
The table below documents the advances and declines and the elapsed time for the major cycles in the Nikkei.
The Earthquake of 2011
The chart below shows the market reaction to the earthquake of March 11. I’ve started the chart in 2007 so that we can put the reaction to the quake in the larger context of the market behavior since the 2007 interim high prior to the Financial Crisis. Note that on Tuesday of this week (September 6th), the index fell fractionally below the interim low three days after the quake.
And to close this retrospective, here is the opening chart with two earthquakes highlighted — the 2011 event and the Kobe earthquake of 1995.
