Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

Daily Stock and Options Tips & Updates; Get Our Daily Newsletter Here

Just closed out my V put for 50% in 24 hours thanks Phil!

- Humvee

Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.

- Oknoman

Phil: Closed out ZION with 49 % gain!

- RMM

AMZN ... thanks Phil; boy did they run a squeeze on everyone there ... made me sweat ... scaling helped! I think AMZN has an 85 handle tomorrow ... maybe lower.

- Cap

Personally I admire and respect you disciplined approach to investing. My style is at the extreme side of aggressive and I have to learn how to be less that way. If I yell " Let it Ride" at my house, no one says a word so I can't use that to temper my behavior. Phil has done a pretty good job of knocking some of my potential moves and as a result, I have increased my portfolio value by almost 25% since late July.

- DoubleD

I discovered PSW while reading up on the US economy and how it applies to all the poor folk of the world and to myself as a humble UK desk slave. This year I put time into learning options trading. I upgraded (with great administrative difficulty!) my stock dealing account to deal options. Now I am an avid reader of PSW and subscribed for voyeur membership. Initially feeling out of my depth struggling to keep up with the peculiar language of options traders, I unsubscribed feeling a little under confident and uncertain if the small stake I have to invest in options could generate enough to justify my PSW subscription. Nevertheless, I've benefited considerably from the member's material. From a small number of initial trades, I've exceeded profit targets enough to consider re-subscribing in some capacity. Thanks for the knowledge and more than anything I appreciate the human angle, the humour and the ecologically sympathetic approach rarely seen in other financial media. Best wishes all - Jon

- Jon

Looking over your main themes last week, the "China may fall first" and "if you missed it previously, Thurs am gives you a second chance to short" were absolutely on target. I had to rely on stop-losses because of my schedule but just those two calls could have been worth a small fortune. Keep it up and I look forward to your new portfolio.

- Ocelli

Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade... but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys.... and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,

- HJ Kobbeman

Phil: I loaded up big time yesterday on your suggestion of the AMZN September 75 naked puts. They are up 43%!

- Gel1

WOW, look at DRYS go. Nice call on the entry the other week Phil. I got 200 at $6.66 and sold a 7.5 call for $.50, then on the tear today sold another 7.5 call for $1. This should puts me in at an average of $5.91 and called away at $7.5 for a profit of $300+ after commisions. Once again another Phil trade pays for this months membership.

- Craigzooka

Phil: I am always able to figure out your trades, including the rational when put in the right context of previous comments, etc. Keep doing what you're doing. It is much appreciated, and invaluable. Your hit rate of successful trades has been very high in my 1.5 months as a member, but even more importantly is your teaching of how to repair and DD positions that haven't gone your way yet. As with most members, we all have our ‘pet' trading interests, and learning how to think about trading is much more important than a specific trade, which could see the conditions behind it change an hour later. This is the classic case, of ‘Teach us to Fish', rather than just giving us a fish once in a while. Thank you!

- Neverworkagain

Great calls this week!

- SNS1

TBT - Many thanks, Phil. I join you in your opinion favoring the Jan expirations. That's a great play. I can never thank you enough for what I have gained educationally as well as monitarily. Here it is late Sunday evening and I am able to get world class advice, just by asking for it. I feel like I am staying in a 5 star hotel, and room service is just a telephone call away!

- Gel1

Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much).

- Jomptien

I have been very fortunate over the years as an investor. Last year was on of my best in terms of percentage gains. I have to attribute much of this success to my membership in PSW which gave me the best education available anywhere when it comes to the understanding of option trading , discipline and general trading strategies. I will be forever grateful to Phil and the many "highly skilled" traders that have offered their advice.

- Gel1

BTW Phil, I wanted to relate a conversation I had with my business partner yesterday. I told him that I have been much more relaxed about my investments ever since I joined your site. It's funny how a 15-20% cushion does to your nerves. My returns have increased dramatically and my risk diminished. Many thanks for the guidance and patience. Good thing I am doing better financially as you might have increased my life expectancy as well!

- StJeanluc

Phil — gotta thank you for your advice this week, and especially today. I took many aspects of your advice this morning, with all of my shorts -- being prepared on the short side, selling into intial excitement, taking the money and running, not being greedy. I also made money on the your /QM and /YM calls. It used to be I would be terrified of weeks like this one. Now, it feels somewhat comfortable, for want of a better word.

- Escohen5

Its been a "perfect" month. Every stock I wrote calls against looks like it will be called away next week, every put I wrote will expire worthless. Thanks Phil, now I need some new buy/write candidates, or the new 100K portfolio….

- Barfinger

Phil: well, often you say, just for FUN, great comment, TXS, closed 2 SKF positions, one with 10 % , the other with 6 % gain,

- RMM

Praising PSW for enlightenment is a bit akin to praising the Pope for being holy. I've been reading PSW for about two months now and have learned more about investing technique and the world in general than I've learned from the books and seminars I've paid for. Thanks for the enlightenment, the education, the guidance and the truth, which is not a commodity these days, but a virtue in short supply.

- Andy Morris

Phil - I followed your great pick re F and sold short the 1011 2.50 puts (200 contracts) and paid for the next 10 years of membership fees…. Thanks!

- Gel1

Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads. That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc. Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities. Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.

- Ben1Be

Phil is a master at keeping you laughing, as well as making you money. - It is like " laughing all the way to the bank!"

- Gel1

Way to go Phil! Have I said how much I appreciate your site lately! Your ability to teach and your willingless to give others a forum to demonstrate their own skill sets makes your site remarkable. I got great help from you, jmm1951, and Iflantheman (special thanks!) today. Hell, if I have many more days like this I may even be able to sign up for a full year rather than doing it just quarterly. Tomorrow is another day but, fabulous job today!

- dclark41

Phil- great call in oil this morning! Now that Im no longer studying and am back in the real world I can only check this in the morning, at lunch, and after work. Anyways, you've been killing it on oil ( even more than you usually do) so I made a point to wake up extra early and made .25 off your ‘buy oil if you're brave'recommendation. It's nice to wake up and scalp 100+ bucks before I even start my real job. You lay those golden eggs everyday Phil! I thank you for that!

- Jromeha

I have been with this site since the beginning and i have learned more the past 3 years than the previous 10. Information and great commentary are abound. The traders on the site are second to none and my portfolio has benefited greatly.

- Kustomz

Speaking of the "Man Who Planted Trees", it really works. I bought BTU back in March at $49.87. I practically bought it at the tippy top. However, I soon afterward found this site, started learning Phil's methodology(and those in the strategy section) and began selling calls/puts regularly against my bad position. As of yesterday, I still own the original 100 shares, but have brought my basis down by over $11.00. Couldn't be happier, what started out as a really bad entry, I have managed to work down to a good basis. Had I not watched that video and learned your system, I would sold out of the position, and been kicking myself for making such a bad entry.

- Hoss

Phil - I LOVE these futures trades at random hours! I wasnt able to get in on the 612 part but if I had it wouldve been 130$ (2.6%) on a 5k contract in less than 30 minutes. I know you have to sleep, spend time with fam, ect but Im just letting you know that your posts after hours/late at night has made people who followed them a decent chunk of change. Thank you, we appreciate it!

- Jromeha

Nice intraday trading calls this week Phil. You have me hooked on trading SPY options analogously to your DIA moves. I paid some tuition the last few weeks but I think I have the hang of it. Don't be greedy and be happy with 0.05 to 0.10 and sometimes you're lucky with much bigger moves. Thanks for the training!

- TmDecay

Phil - DIA 107 Calls. As suggested I am taking the money and running to home depot for some shelter supplies! This is the grand finale of several successful trades from you through this roller-coster and as you have further suggested it is time for me to sit back and relax in cash. May even be able to talk my wife into the premium membership after these intelligent trades in a stupid market.

- DOStrade

Archive for September, 2011

Manufacturing Decoupling Comes To America As Chicago Breaks Away From Rest Of Country

by Zero Hedge - September 30th, 2011 10:03 am

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Economic activity decoupling is no longer a phenomenon between the developed and developing world. It is between the Chicago region and everywhere else. And because the Chicago PMI is supposed to be representative of the Manufacturing ISM, the market just loves (or rather loved, considering the 10 minute leak of the data) that the PMI soared from 56.5 to 60.4 on expectations of a decline to 55.0. The internals were all hot, hot, hot as follows: “Business Activity: “EMPLOYMENT expanded to highest level in 4 months; NEW ORDERS erased net declines accumulated since April; ORDER BACKLOGS remained in contraction at a 23-month low; SUPPLIER DELIVERIES approached neutral; while the buying policy was as follows: PRODUCTION MATERIEL moved to an 10-month high; CAPITAL EQUIPMENT lead times ended a 4-month uptrend.” Yet as usual the amusing part, which is straight from the respondents was the following: “We are seeing unannounced and incredible inflation on one product, multiple parts, that we are purchasing out of Europe. At 400% increase we thought surely must have been a mistake. This is not related to $ exchange since we pay in Euros already. Supplier says they cannot absorb costs anymore.” And that’s why Houston, we have a problem.

Compare Chicago PMI and Philly Fed:

Full survey panel response:

1. “We are seeing unannounced and incredible inflation on one product, multiple parts, that we are purchasing out of Europe. At 400% increase we thought surely must have been a mistake. This is not related to $ exchange since we pay in Euros already. Supplier says they cannot absorb costs anymore.”

2. “Continued export of manufacturing with simultaneous mandates to reduce global raw material inventories while maintaining high customer service levels globally is the greatest challenge. Locating new localized sources for raw goods in new manufacturing locations also lenghty and expensive. Quality consistency seems to be the biggest headache for new factories attempting to qualify local suppliers. US based goods often continue to be used at a higher cost thus impacting the bottom line but keeping customers coming back.”

3. “Talk of tax increases has many of my suppliers nervous and they now are reluctant to expand their business with either labor or capital investments.”

4. “Business continues strong & the backlog remains good.”

5. “We are finally adding personnel…

Posted in Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Closing Dexia Long CDS With $3.6MM Profit On Imminent Nationalization Concerns

by Zero Hedge - September 30th, 2011 9:39 am

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Back on May 25, somewhere close to the irrelevant equity market’s highs, when once again a little ahead of the market curve we suggested that Dexia would be the bank most impacted by the next round of Greek-induced risk flaring, we were banging the table on a long Dexia CDS SUB position. 5 Year subs were trading at 568 bps then. They are now 31/39 points upfront and every day for Dexia could be its last. Which is precisely why we are closing the trade: should Dexia go under it will drag all of Europe with it. We expect a partial or complete nationalization to be announced imminently, which in addition to all other side effects, would lead in a Bear Stearnsing of all accrued profit. With a 20% recovery rate on the CDS, the P&L on the trade is $3.6MM on $10MM notional. Not bad for a 4 month holding period.

Spread:

CDSW:

Source: Bloomberg

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I’m Hunting Big Game Today:The Squid On The Spear Tip, Part 1 & Introduction

by Zero Hedge - September 30th, 2011 9:26 am

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Reggie Middleton.

Summary: This is the first in a series of articles to be released this weekend concerning Goldman Sachs, the Squid! In this introduction (for those who do not regularly follow me) I demonstrate how the market, the sell side, and most investors are missing one of the biggest bastions of risk in the US investment banking industry. I will also demonstrate how BoomBustBlog research not only runs circles around the big name brand bank analysts in their missing this risk (once again), but has been doing so for years, since our proclamation that Bear Stearns would collapse in January of 2008 (Is this the Breaking of the Bear?) and the fishy things at Lehman Brothers just a few days afterward (Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise?). I urge the big media to catch on as the TRUTH goes viral, delivered raw and uncut. Now let’s go hunt some big Goldman game! You see, unlike some of the more meek (which is really to be read as conflicted), I am particularly well suited to go after the dangerous game… Enjoy!

Reggie_Midleton_The_Squid_Hunter

All paying subscribers are urged to download the latest forensic research: Goldmans Sachs Derivative Exposure: The Squid in the Coal Mine? in order to get a head start on what will be publshed in parts 2 and 3 of this series!

Friday, 9/20/11, Bloomberg reports: Morgan Stanley Seen as Risky as Italian Banks, as excerpted

Morgan Stanley (MS), which owns the world’s largest retail brokerage, is being priced in the credit- default swaps market as less creditworthy than most U.S., U.K. and French banks and as risky as Italy’s biggest lenders.

The cost of buying the swaps, or CDS, which offer protection against a default of New York-based Morgan Stanley’s debt for five years, has surged to 456 basis points, or $456,000, for every $10 million of debt insured, from 305 basis points on Sept. 15, according to prices provided by London-based CMA. Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) has CDS trading at 405 basis points, and UniCredit SpA (UCG) at 424, the data show. A basis point…

Posted in Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Morgan Stanley CDS Curve Inverts As Risk Highest Since Q4 2008

by Zero Hedge - September 30th, 2011 9:23 am

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

We have been discussing US (and European) financial risk for some time (especially recently with regard MS exposure to French banks). Since we published that article, we have seen incredible shifts in MS CDS and bonds even as stocks appear to shrug of some of the reality of the situation. An excellent article on Bloomberg last evening pointed out that not only was MS CDS at rather extreme levels, it was quietly as risky (if not more so) than many of the European banks that are making the headlines. Not only is MS CDS its highest since its spike highs in Q4 2008, the curve is inverted with 1Y risk trading 500/550 against 5Y risk at 455/470 which strongly suggests jump risk (or counterparty risk) is being aggressively hedged. With over $4.5bn of debt maturing in Q4 (which we have been pointing out for months – TLGP issues) and the increasingly binary nature of any outcomes, it seems the only real buyer of any MS debt are basis traders as the difference between bond spreads and CDS has halved in the last few weeks.

The only time that CDS for Morgan Stanley was higher was during the middle of the crisis when they spiked massively higher – the situation is becoming increasingly binary.

And the spread between bonds (which are trading wider – cheaper than) and CDS is falling (an upwards bias in the basis chart above) as basis traders (remember we discussed these traders in yesterday’s closing market snapshot) step in to scoop up with 100-150bps differential. However, bond liquidity can disappear very quickly when outcomes are so uncertain (see Q4 2008 Q1 2009) and ask Boaz Weinstein – so don’t be left holding that bag.

Charts: Bloomberg

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Pre-Market Movers; Ingersoll-Rand Down on Lower Guidance

by Insider Scoop - September 30th, 2011 9:21 am

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Harbin Electric (Public, NASDAQ: HRBN) +6.77 after the company announced yesterday that it mailed the proxy cards regarding the going-private proposal.

Ingersoll-Rand (Public, NYSE: IR) -13.17% on lower guidance.

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) -7.16% on downbeat earnings.

Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) -7.23% on the economic concerns in the Eurozone.

CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF) -6.34%

Posted in Benzinga, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Shanghai index sending ANOTHER global message per portfolio construction/risk exposure? YES!!!

by Chart School - September 30th, 2011 9:14 am

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Shared the chart below back in May, reflecting that a multi-year flag/pennant pattern was breaking to the downside in the Shanghai index (see post here) The last line in the 5/25 post was…”the impact could be huge!”

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

So what has happened since the Shanghai index broke support? A global sell off in stocks and the CRX (Commodities Index) followed! (see CRX breakdown here). In the chart above I shared that the global impact could be sizable and it has been. Is it really all about the news from Europe/Greece? Nope!!! What would have happened to investors portfolios if they had reduced risk exposure at the time of the breakdown? Larger portfolio values and greater peace of mind!!!

Why did I share the Shanghai flag numerous times on the blog? I felt portfolio construction/risk exposure should be geared toward the outcome of the multi-year flag pattern, based upon one of the largest economies in the world!

Now another important pattern is taking place in the Shanghai index…

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Mr. Bill’s investment advice is spot on…..should support not hold at (2), when ask if investors should have much risk exposure the answer would be….Ohh Nooo!!!

A leading research firm announced this morning, around 5:25 a.m (Central)., that the economy is heading into a recession. (see video of the interview here)

If you have been a viewer of my work over the past few years, you know I am NOT into labels. My goal isn’t to be right about a label, it is to provide research that could help investors “enlarge their portfolios regardless of market direction, by using the Power of the Pattern!”

The Power of the Pattern suggested we could be facing GE2 on May the 5th. (see Great Escape here) For those new to this blog, what is Great Escape all about? In 2008, investors experienced GE1 (Great Escape 1), which was a time when investors said “just get me out of here/Sell the majority of the assets I have/sell even the winners!” There was very few places to hide back then, not even Gold and Silver! How are the metals acting of late in 2011?…

Posted in Chart School, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

CNO Financial Group Announces Third Quarter Share Repurchases

by Insider Scoop - September 30th, 2011 8:58 am

Courtesy of Benzinga.

CNO Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: CNO) today announced that during the third quarter of 2011 it repurchased 6,567,026 shares of its common stock for an aggregate purchase price of $39.5 million under its $100 million share repurchase program. The shares were repurchased at an average cost of $6.01 per share and represented 2.6% of the total outstanding shares as of June 30, 2011.

Total shares repurchased under the program to date total 8,773,674 shares for an aggregate purchase price of $55.7 million, at an average cost of $6.35 per share. As of June 30, 2011, CNO had approximately 249.4 million shares outstanding.

As required under the terms of its Senior Secured Credit Agreement, CNO also made a principal prepayment today of the same amount as the third quarter share repurchases ($39.5 million). This prepayment will fully satisfy the remaining scheduled principal amount that is due on September 30, 2016 and will also reduce the scheduled principal amount that is due on June 30, 2016. The next scheduled principal payment under the facility of $10.0 million is due September 30, 2012.

CNO also announced that today it made an early payment of $25.0 million on the Senior Health Note, in satisfaction of the scheduled amortization payment due November 12, 2011. The next scheduled amortization payment of $25.0 million on the Senior Health Note is due November 12, 2012.

The proforma debt to total capital ratio (as defined in our Senior Secured Credit Agreement) at June 30, 2011 would reduce to 17.8% from 18.7% as a result of the aforementioned transactions

Posted in Benzinga, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

US Consumer Taps Out: Personal Savings Rate Drops To Lowest Since December 2009

by Zero Hedge - September 30th, 2011 8:44 am

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The August Personal Income and Spending report is out and while there were some modest surprises in the data, namely a drop in Personal Income of -0.1%, on expectations of an increase of 0.1% (and an adverse revision for July data from 0.3% to 0.1%) – the first drop in two years, while Personal Spending was in line with expectations at 0.2% (previous revised from 0.8% to 0.7%), the biggest news of the day is that the US consumer is getting tapped out, with spending coming entirely from savings: the savings rate dropped from a revised 4.8% (previously 5.0%), to 4.5%, the lowest since December 2009.

August income components are not pretty, in fact they were pretty damn ugly:

Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $12.2 billion in August, in contrast to an increase of $23.8 billion in July. Goods-producing industries’ payrolls decreased $1.3 billion, in contrast to an increase of $6.3 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $2.9 billion, in contrast to an increase of $5.8 billion. Services-producing industries’ payrolls decreased $10.9 billion, in contrast to an increase of $17.5 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $0.4 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $1.8 billion.

And what is even worse is that based on other personal income, the primary source of “income” was and continues to be the squatter’s rent where not paying one’s mortgage effectively translates into income:

Rental income of persons increased $8.3 billion in August, compared with an increase of $8.1 billion in July. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) decreased $5.7 billion, compared with a decrease of $5.8 billion.

Lastly, the government was not very generous last month: the result – a tapping of consumer bank accounts.

Personal current transfer receipts decreased $7.1 billion in August, compared with a decrease of $10.7 billion in July. Government social benefits to persons for Medicaid decreased $10.5 billion, compared with a decrease of $13.6 billion.

And Goldman’s take:

Weak Income and Spending

BOTTOM LINE: Weak real income growth a negative for consumer spending outlook. Downward revisions to consumer spending a small negative for Q3 GDP.

KEY NUMBERS:
Personal income -0.1% (mom)…

Posted in Immediately available to public | No Comments »

JinkoSolar Buys 3.143M Shares Under Its Repurchase Program

by Insider Scoop - September 30th, 2011 8:31 am

Courtesy of Benzinga.

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE: JKS) today announced that it has repurchased in the aggregate amount of 785,900 American Depositary Shares, representing 3,143,600 of its ordinary shares since the beginning of the share repurchase program that was approved by the board of directors on May 6, 2011. The average repurchase price, excluding commissions, was US$6.92 per ADS, and the total purchase price, excluding commissions, was US$5,435,661.

Under the stock repurchase program, JinkoSolar is authorized to repurchase up to US$30 million of its ordinary shares represented by ADSs, from time to time, in open-market transactions within the 12 months following May 6, 2011.

Posted in Benzinga, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

U.S. International Trade Commission rules in Lexmark’s favor

by Insider Scoop - September 30th, 2011 8:31 am

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Lexmark International, Inc. (NYSE: LXK) announced today that the United States International Trade Commission (ITC) has ruled in its favor in connection with litigation initiated by Lexmark last year against 24 companies engaged in the manufacture, importation and sale of replacement laser toner cartridges for various Lexmark devices.

On September 27, 2011, the ITC issued a Final Determination holding that these replacement laser toner cartridges infringe at least 15 U.S. patents owned by Lexmark. Accordingly, the ITC issued a General Exclusion Order that bans all imports of infringing cartridges by any party, as well as a Cease and Desist Order that bars the named parties from selling infringing cartridges.

The accused cartridges covered by the ITC’s orders include:

Remanufactured, cloned (new), counterfeit, and/or compatible laser toner cartridges, and Empty cartridges or components first sold outside the United States,

Posted in Benzinga, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Phil's Favorites

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

January 27th, 2012 1:52 pm

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner

I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc. The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in p...

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

January 27th, 2012 1:40 pm

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Zero Hedge

Debt Ceiling 101, Santelli Sounds Off

January 27th, 2012 12:55 pm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In an effort to reach the angry mob, CNBC's Rick Santelli goes all Sesame Street on the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).

...

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Chart School

ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further

January 27th, 2012 12:35 pm

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).

Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...

Market Montage

Average Age of U.S. Vehicles Hits Record 10.8 Years

January 27th, 2012 11:15 am

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high. Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...

Insider Scoop

Research in Motion Surging after Prem Watsa Stake

January 27th, 2012 10:05 am

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.

Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.

Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.

Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.

...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 1/27/2012

January 27th, 2012 12:00 am

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...

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ETF Selector

Wall Street Party Hangover (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GLD)

January 26th, 2012 6:16 pm

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday

Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party. The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.

The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...

Option Review

Big Prints In Deutsche Bank Put Options

January 26th, 2012 1:38 pm

Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI

...

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2012

January 23rd, 2012 8:56 am

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

January 22nd, 2012 10:09 pm

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general! AA Money Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance. Previous week P&L - $400.00 We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium! FAS Money We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope. Previous week P&L - $4372.00...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: QE-cating

January 22nd, 2012 2:52 am

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating. Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)

Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

January 18th, 2012 1:09 am

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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