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Archive for September, 2011

Sun Healthcare Group Lowers 2011 Guidance

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Sun Healthcare Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: SUNH) today announced its updated financial guidance for the year ending December 31, 2011.

Reissuance of 2011 Financial Guidance

Sun Healthcare announced the withdrawal of its full-year 2011 guidance on August 1, 2011 in order to have time to evaluate the impact of the final rule for skilled nursing facilities that was published by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services on July 29, 2011. After completing that review, the Company is reissuing and updating its full year 2011 guidance. The significant changes include:

consolidated revenues are expected to be between $1.925 billion and $1.945 billion, compared to a previously expected range of $1.950 billion to $1.995 billion;

consolidated adjusted EBITDAR is expected to be between $237 million and $242 million, compared to a previously expected range of $259 million to $265 million; and

diluted earnings per share from continuing operations is expected to be between $0.83 and $0.94, compared to a previously expected range of $1.30 to $1.45.




Pricing in a Recession, Liquidity Crunch, Or…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Pricing in a Recession, Liquidity Crunch, Or…

The key macro driver this week has been the plan to plan a “Grand Plan”.  While the market has been focused on this big headline grabbing news, something is happening in the High Yield market that is worth watching.  The bottom end of the market is falling apart and this is during a period of retail inflows.

High Yield – Retail Buying, Professional Selling

HYG has been selling off this week.  It is down 1% since last Friday.  In the meantime, the S&P is up about 2%.  So it is interesting that High Yield has underperformed by 3%.  5 year treasuries are barely down on the week, so it can’t be rates, and the high yield market doesn’t track rates that closely anyways.

My first reaction was that there must be some pretty significant outflows.   But that is just not the case.  HYG and JNK both had increases in shares outstanding.  EPFR fund flows were positive $423 million this past week.  This strikes me as very odd.  High Yield price action usually tracks fund flows pretty well.

The above graph, while not great, shows that outflows typically accompany market sell-offs.  The move this week is highly unusual.  A big sell off in the market, but signs that retail is putting money into junk bonds.  That can only lead me to the conclusion that institutions and banks are pulling back from the market.  They are either worried about the potential for a recession or need to raise cash, or both.  The same thing is occurring in the investment grade space where LQD is declining, spreads are widening, yet shares outstanding increased.  This reminds me of the fall of 2007 when dealers were shedding all inventory because they were afraid of any risk and they were having funding issues.  In investment grade, the basis went from pick 15 to pick 35.  Some thought it was  great opportunity to buy bonds and buy CDS.  It turned out the funding pressure was persistent and that basis continued to get wider, peaking at over 100 after Lehman a year later.  There isn’t the exact same feeling as 2007, but this divergence between what retail is doing and what institutions seem to be doing needs
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News That Matters

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by thetrader.

 

By www.thetrader.se

 

Ft.com
Three years after Lehman Brothers declared the biggest corporate bankruptcy in history, the defunct bank is approaching the end of the process as additional creditors voice their support for a final pay-out plan, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/09/30/689546/lehman-brothers-wind…

Bank of America, the largest US bank by deposits, is to charge its customers for using debit cards, as the beleaguered bank tries to claw back revenue in the face of new rules contained in the Dodd-Frank act. BofA said its debit card users would pay $5 a month from early next year when they used the cards to buy goods, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/09/30/689531/bofa-to-charge-custo…

HSBC’s China Purchasing Managers’ Index showed the factory sector contracted slightly for a third consecutive month in September, Reuters reports, while factory inflation quickened to a four-month high. The HSBC PMI, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/09/30/689526/china-pmis-show-thir…

Investment banking fees from mergers and acquisitions and capital raising have slumped in the third quarter to lows not seen since the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse, the FT reports. Investment banking fees – about 15 per cent of overall investment banking revenues – fell 43 per cent from the second quarter, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/09/30/689496/investment-banking-f…

UBS has hired executive search company Egon Zehnder International to help find a permanent chief executive officer following Oswald Grübel’s resignation, the WSJ says, citing a person familiar with the matter. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/09/30/689431/ubs-hires-firm-to-he…

 

 

Britain is bracing for defeat in Brussels on a critical piece of financial regulation, which would force it to cede control over the shape of key markets in the City of London, home to more than three-quarters of Europe’s derivatives trading, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/09/30/689426/uk-faces-defeat-over…

The German parliament has voted by an overwhelming majority in favour of measures bolster the €440bn eurozone rescue fund, and…
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TGIF – Closing a 12% Down Quarter

SPY DAILY1,320 – That was the S&P close on June 30th.

1,160 – That was the S&P close after yesterday’s wild action.  A neat 160-point drop (12%) in 3 months for the World’s largest market kind of sucks, don’t you think?  My commentary in June 30th’s "It’s the End of the Quarter as We Know It" post was:

We feel fine because we cashed out on the long side (shorter-term, unhedged positions) and we really don’t care what the market does today or tomorrow but we are betting this rally reverses and we will be taking some (more) short hedges today – hopefully selling into the last legs of this fairly fake-looking rally.  

My top downside picks to play the sell-off were EDZ ($17.90 at the time, now $28, which is up 36% even without using options to make a spread) and TZA ($35.50 at the time, now $51.10 – up 44%).  As I said in that morning post: "I didn’t think they could take the Dollar below 75 but they hit 74.54 last night and it remains to be seen if they can hold it down in real trading, especially with the Pound weakness (see this morning’s Alert) and the Yen’s unwanted strength.  Something’s gotta give and we’re betting it’s this fake, Fake, FAKE rally…."

We were shorting oil futures (/CL) at $95 (now $80, up $15,000 per contract) as we thought the holiday weekend was the end of the run but we did keep heading up to $100 (down $5,000 per contract) before finally getting a drop to $75 (up $25,000 per contract) in early August.  

One funny play from that June 30th Member Chat was the VIX Aug $15/17 bull call spread at $1.20, selling the $16 puts for .50 for net .70 on the $2 spread.  That just seems so cute (and obvious) with the VIX at 38.84 now (it was 30 at the end of Aug for a full 185% gain on that hedge).  

Other hedges we liked in that post were the TZA Oct $31/42 bull call spread at $3, selling RUT Aug $710 puts for $2.90.  The RUT puts expired worthless so net .10 on the spread that is currently $20 in the money for pretty much the full 10,900% gain.
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Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: September 30

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Ran Squawk:

  • Eurozone CPI Estimate (Sep) Y/Y 3.0% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%)
  • Chinese Premier Wen says economic growth remains relatively fast and rapid prices have been contained.
  • “Operation Twist” might be more powerful than many investors expect, according to the WSJ.
  • The IMF is exploring how it can have at least USD 1.3tln in lending power, according to officials involved with the discussions.
  • German upper house approves EFSF expansion.
  • Bank of Spain says all Spanish banks now comply with its minimum solvency ratios.

Market Re-Cap
 
Today’s session has been a quiet one so far as markets digest yesterdays German EFSF vote and trading has seen light volumes heading into the month and quarter end. Weakening in the Euro currency was observed after higher than expected Eurozone CPI, which led to market participants further questioning whether the ECB will now be cutting interest rates in their monthly Governing Council meeting next week. As European bank fragility has remained in focus in recent times, news came from the EU Commission that they have temporarily approved state aid worth EUR 4.75bln to recapitalize three Spanish savings banks, although little reaction was seen in the markets. The largest moves have been seen in crude futures today with WTI and Brent trade down around USD 1, extending their quarter losses which remain on track for their biggest drop in 15 months. We’ve also seen the German upper house now approve EFSF expansion, and are awaiting final approval from Austria at today, although no time has been given.
 
Looking ahead to the US cash open, focus will be on the US Chicago PMI data which is expected to show a slightly lower than previous reading at 55.0, plus the final University of Michigan Confidence number 10 minutes later. Hope will be that these readings add to yesterday’s indication of some recovery in the US economy.
 
Asian Headlines
 
·  Japanese Jobless Rate (Aug) M/M 4.3% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 4.7%)
Japanese CPI (Aug) Y/Y 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%)
Japanese Industrial Production (Aug P) M/M 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 0.4%), Y/Y 0.6% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. -3.0%) (RTRS)
·  Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep) M/M 49.9 vs. Prev. 49.9 (RTRS)
·  Chinese Premier Wen says economic growth remains relatively fast and rapid prices have been…
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Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corporation Announces Agreement to Sell its Interest in Shandong Pacific Fiber-Optic Joint Venture

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corporation Limited (NASDAQ: APWC) today announced that the Company has successfully entered into an agreement to sell its 51% interest in the Shandong Pacific Fiber Optic Co., Ltd. (“SPFO”) joint venture, subject to the fulfillment of certain conditions.

Under the terms of the agreement, the Company has agreed to sell its interest in SPFO to a group of investors in exchange for a total cash consideration of RMB 18.5 million (approximately $2.9 million). The sale is conditional upon the satisfactory completion of due diligence by the buyers and the procurement of certain local governmental approvals, both of which APWC currently anticipates will be completed within approximately 30 to 60 days. In addition to the consideration being paid to the Company under the agreement, the Company will be released and discharged from all of its obligations with regard to the SPFO joint venture, including the SPFO leasehold obligations.

The divesture of SPFO is an important goal of APWC’s board of directors and management to enable the Company to focus on its core wire and cable businesses that are more profitable and thereby increase shareholder value.




Camelot Discloses Management’s Involuntary Sale of Common Stock

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Camelot Information Systems (NYSE: CIS) today announced that its Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Yiming (Simon) Ma, and its Director and President, Heidi Chou, previously entered into certain margin loans, which were secured by a pledge of certain shares of the Company held by them. Due solely to market conditions and pursuant to margin calls, a total of 3,981,153 ADSs, or 15,924,612 shares, representing approximately 8.8% of the Company’s total issued and outstanding shares, were divested by one financial institution through sales on the open market and through transfers to other parties, to cover the obligations of Yiming Ma and Heidi Chou thereunder.

Mr. Yiming Ma, Camelot’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer commented, “We were very disappointed to have to part with our Camelot shares to cover margin loans, since these transactions stand in opposition to our outlook for Camelot. Our share sales were precipitated by the extraordinary events affecting U.S.-listed China stocks in the IT services sector, and our confidence in Camelot shares remains unblemished. We do not foresee a need to sell any additional shares at this time and we plan to hold our shares for the long term.”




Sino Clean Energy, Inc. Reconfirms Fiscal 2011 Guidance

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Sino Clean Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: SCEI) today reconfirmed its fiscal 2011 guidance and expected revenue of between $101.5 million and $110.7 million. The Company announced on the same day that its major customer, Shenyang Haizhong Heating, has completed pipeline modifications and is expected to resume operations in October as scheduled. Sino Clean Energy’s Shenyang facility is prepared to produce CWSF to supply this key customer according to its expected ramp up in demand.

Sino Clean Energy also provided additional updates about Foshan Nan Hai acquisition, third-party asset evaluation, and lawsuit against Alfred Little.

In regards to its planned Foshan Nan Hai acquisition, Sino Clean Energy has engaged Shaanxi Rongde Law Firm (“Rongde”) to conduct a comprehensive investigation and evaluation of Foshan Nan Hai’s assets, ownership structure, liabilities, and credit worthiness.




ECRI’s Achutan Says US Is “Entering A New Recession”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Last year the ECRI index was the bete noir leading indicator of the market: while the index clearly indicated the US had entered a recession, its creator Lakshman Achutan consistently refuted the findings of the index, instead pushing a contrary view that the US was in fact growing. Then came QE2 and with it s 9 month suspension of reality. That time is over, as is Achutan’s ongoing attempt to deny facts. As of a minutes ago, the ECRI’s head told Bloomberg Radio that the U.S. is “tipping into a new recession.” “He added: “We don’t make these calls lightly. When we make them, it’s because there’s an overwhelming objective message coming out of our forward-looking indicators. What is going on with the leading indicators is wildfire; it’s not reversible.” As Zero Hedge first said months ago, when it finally extracts its head from between its gluteui maximus, we expet the NBER to proclaim the re-recession as having started in June/July.

We will get the Bloomberg Radio interview as soon as possible.




Meanwhile In European Sovereign Default Risk…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While all eyes this morning are on Chinese CDS (with about an 18 month delay: about par for a centrally planned market), which has finally blown out, the shifting of attention has done nothing to fix the situation in Europe, where CDS is once again wider across the board.

                                   5Y                10Y          5/10′s                           

  • ITALY             470/480  +21      446/460      -30/-10                           
  • SPAIN            379/389  +14      352/368      -30/-10                           
  • PORTUGAL    1090/1130 +20      825/895     -280/-220                           
  • IRELAND        660/710  -15      475/545     -205/-145                           
  • GREECE           59/63   0         60/64
  • BELGIUM       254/264  +11      249/263       -8/2                              
  • FRANCE         183/188  +9.5     197/203       12/17                             
  • AUSTRIA        164/174  +9     182.5/190.5     15/20                             
  • UK                   91/95   +3     107.5/112.5     15/19                             
  • GERMANY      109/113  +4     128.5/133.5     17/21
  • XO 829/834 +41.5
  • MAIN 198/199.5 +9.25

 




 

Phil's Favorites

Crude Oil vs. Iran: Who Blinks First?

Courtesy of www.econmatters.com.

By EconMatters

Oil futures spiked more than 2% in one day to their highest level in nine months on Tuesday Feb. 21.  WTI front month contract closed at $105.84, while Brent ended at $121.66 on ICE, primarily on investors fear of potential conflict over the escalating tensions between the US, Europe, Israel, and Iran.  A second Greek bailout deal of €130bn (£110bn; $170bn) also helped to inject some optimism into the market (which would seem totally mis-placed as we may need to relive this Greek drama in two years).  Nevertheless, the fact remains crude oil market supply and demand has not changed a bit to warrant a 2%+ price jump in one day.

...

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Zero Hedge

Scandal: Greece To Receive "Negative" Cash From "Second Bailout" As It Funds Insolvent European Banks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Earlier today, we learned the first stunner of the Greek bailout package, which courtesy of some convoluted transmission mechanisms would result in some, potentially quite many, Greek workers actually paying to retain their jobs: i.e., negative salaries. Now, having looked at the Eurogroup's statement on the Greek bailout, we find another ...



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Insider Scoop

Morning Social Media Outlook for Wednesday Feb 22

Courtesy of Benzinga.

In recent years, traders and investors have increasingly turned to social media to discuss their investments. Now, interested parties can get a scientific look at what is being discussed on a weekly, monthly, and even hourly basis.

Provided by Social Market Analytics, here is the morning social media outlook for Wednesday, February 22.

Most Bullish

Sentiment has been most bullish this morning on two tech companies.

Sourcefire (NASDAQ: FIRE) reported stellar earnings yesterday afternoon, which prompted several analysts to upgrade their price targets on the stock. The company hit a fresh 52-week high earlier this morning, as shares surged over 23%.

Procera Networks (NASDAQ: ...



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Chart School

The Mindset For Successful Trading In Today’s Market

Courtesy of David Grandey.

In today’s market, it’s more important that ever to have a mindset to maintain a sane mental state and stay peaceful calm and centered.
  Keep in mind with the markets as stretched as they are, we are in a high risk zone for pulling back as we have been in an accelerated uptrend with barely any pullback to speak of which as we all know can not continue forever — it never does. That said the music can stop at a moment’s notice and odds favor when it does it will be a gap down. So using that as a backdrop let’s look at SXCI. SXCI — SXC Health   Let’s say that issue breaks above the pink line and triggers a long side trade. That’s all fine and dandy HOWEVER it’s what happens next that we have no control over. At that point it either follows through or it doesn’t. WE NOR YOU HAVE ANY CONTROL ...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 2/22/2012

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisAGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a few weeks ago make AGCO a company to watch.PCUBUYThe recent earnings history for Southern Copper shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.PAGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a few weeks ago make Penske a company to watch.FEICBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected va...

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Market Montage

Breadth is Narrowing

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Other than that rally last Thursday that caught a lot of technicians flat footed (i.e. post the Apple reversal) the breadth in this market has been relatively poor the past 5 sessions or so.  The Russell 2000 has been lagging the major indexes dominated by large caps, and my watch lists have contained far more red than green.   Some people have been calling it the NBA market ("Nothing but Apple") but it's been a bit broader than that – i.e. Microsoft has acted well, and some groups are still working.

A bearish take on this is of course what I cited above – breadth is narrowing which usually happens near tops.  Fewer and ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Option Review

Bullish Bets Build In Wynn Resorts Weekly Options

 

Today’s tickers: WYNN, CTRP, DTV & WMT

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 20th, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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ETF Selector

Global Markets, Euro, Jump On Greece (FXE, SPY, EWG, UUP)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Monday comes and goes with no agreement on Greece until late night settlement on Greece.

European finance ministers met in Brussels Monday and deep into the night and finally, in the wee hours, apparently have struck an agreement for the next round of bailout money for Greece.

In overnight trading, the European indexes were up with the DAX gaining 1.46%, the STOXX 50 adding 1.2% and the FTSE climbing 0.7%

In Asia, major indexes were down slightly as the world waited for an answer on Greece.

The U.S. Dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP) declined after announcement of the agreement while the Euro Dollar (NYSEARCA:FXE) jumped.

The issue remains the same as it always ha...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: Balancing Act

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the most recent Stock World Weekly, Balancing Act. Click on this link to sign in or sign up to read.  

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/30/2012

Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position. AA Money No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position. Last week P&L - 310.00 We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium! FAS Money Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though! Last week P&L - $4277.00 IWM Money A decent week in this virtual portfo...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game.  More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline.  In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up.  I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect.  I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...



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