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Archive for December, 2011

Explaining Italian Christmas Season Sales

Explaining Italian Christmas Season Sales (It’s Far Worse Than Previously Reported); How Various Austerity Measures Will Affect Spending in 2012; Emails from Italian Readers; Massive European Recession On the Way

Courtesy of Mish

In response to Italians Cut Spending in Worst Christmas in 10 Years; Harsh Times Ahead for All Europe (an article translated from Spanish that had me puzzled about a number of things even though I could tell spending fell dramatically), reader Andrea offers a very nice explanation of just how bad things are in Italy.

Hello Mish,

I can help your readers better understand the reported "spending cuts in Italy".

Coldiretti is the farmers lobby and they claim that for Christmas day dinner and lunch they spent 2.3 billion Euros, 18% less than last year and the lowest figure since 2001: Christmas day dinner and lunch (and generally speaking food) is typically a strong tradition that Italians wants to keep as much abundant and tasty as possible even through the worst times, this is why is such an important figure. 

The other figure you mention ("The consumer group estimates "as much as 40 percent") is related to something completely different and it is an estimate. Just after the Christmas period (from the first days of January) in Italy and in Europe in general you have a "discounted sales", where retailers sell items at a discounted price to empty their stocks and of the items unsold during the normal season. 

Typically this is a consistent part of the sales of the year and people used to rush in the shops since the very first hours of the first days to get the best bargains.

Codacons (one of the biggest consumer associations) estimates that the "discounted sales" this year will be 30%-40% less than last year. Federconsumatori (another consumer association) instead estimates a reduction of 19/20%, which is probably more close to reality (people have probably waited this season to buy something not urgent). If this happens, it will certainly be a huge sign that recession is beating hard. 

Regarding total spending during the holiday season, it is quite hard to find a comparison with the last year. The typical comparison reported by media is between the forecast of another consumer association (Federconsumatori) and the actual results: Federconsumatori forecast 4.4 billion and instead the total was 4 billion, so 10% less than forecast. 

However, looking in the 


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Open Thread: 2011 Closes….Down

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With the S&P 500 cash index closing 2011 down for the year (admittedly down 0.003181% is just 0.003181%, but it is also down), we look across asset classes and notable markets as we reflect on an increasingly intervention-driven and gap-heavy uber correlated global investing framework. UK Gilts, 10Y Treasuries, Gold, and Oil outperformed (rebased to USD terms) while Greek bonds, Copper, Emerging Market stocks, and Asia Ex-Japan stocks underperformed. The Dollar closed almost 1% higher on the year, the EUR down 2.6% versus the USD as the CRB Commodity Index closed -6.67% for the year. Japanese stocks and bonds had a tough year. US investment grade bonds outperformed high yield bonds. There is much to discuss and we open the thread for any and all discussions…

Global markets compared…(click to enlarge)…

An important grouping that many paid attention to is Gold vs TSYs vs Stocks...

Comparing Gold to other commodities

Global Stock Indices…YTD performance…

While the S&P managed to close marginally down for the year, the sectors’ performance was very diverse

FX markets saw plenty of vol but ended with convergence as the all-powerful USD moved everything – except for the JPY which gained 8.1% YTD (and obviously swissy had the craziest of runs in the year)…

European AAA Sovereign spreads exploded and dispersed as clearly France and Austria are being priced ‘differently’…

And evidently the desperate need for USD liquidity is highlighted best with the now ubiquitous EUR-USD basis swap spread

 

Of course comparing VIX (actually the 3rd month VIX futures contract here) with implied correlation gives us a sense for the demand for macro protection versus micro protection…its clear that while VIX has dropped recently (as is its tendency at year-end) it is considerably elevated from a year ago and implied correlation is hugely higher signaling a demand for protection remains high as fear is still here.

 

but maybe security-of-the-year goes to…BTPs – certainly as much a pivot trade as any other in the latter half of the year…

 

But we end with the clear message that we discussed many times – the market is broken – it broke when S&P downgraded the USA and made the impossible possible…

The explosion of volatility in the financials post the…
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Benzinga’s M&A Chatter for Friday December 30, 2011

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Here are the M&A deals and chatter for Friday December 30, 2011:

AT&T to Acquire Leap Wireless, MetroPCS

The Rumor: AT&T (NYSE: T) will purchase either Leap Wireless (NASDAQ: LEAP) or MetroPCS (NYSE: PCS) as a substitute deal for T-Mobile.

On this last trading day of 2011, there was only one major rumor going around.

AT&T is looking for additional spectrum, now that the T-Mobile deal has collapsed. Speculation on these names intensified today with major moves in both Leap (up 9.42%) and MetroPCS (up 5.34%). Shares of Leap Wireless traded in a range of $8.42 to $10.04 on 3 times the average daily volume, closing at $9.29. Shares of MetroPCS traded in a range of $8.19 to $8.75 on slightly more than the average daily volume, closing at $8.65.

There was vague chatter of Sprint (NYSE: S) perhaps being added to the list of potential or rumored prospects next week.


For more Benzinga, visit Benzinga Professional Service, Value Investor, and Stocks Under $5.




XOMA Will Move Its Corporate Domicile to Delaware

Courtesy of Benzinga.

XOMA Ltd. (Nasdaq: XOMA) today announced that, effective December 31, 2011, it will move its corporate domicile from Bermuda to Delaware and change its name from “XOMA Ltd.” to “XOMA Corporation.”

All of the outstanding common shares of the former XOMA Ltd. will automatically convert by operation of law into common stock of XOMA Corporation on a one-for-one basis. A registration statement on Form S-4 relating to the common stock of XOMA Corporation has been declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission. This announcement does not constitute an offer of any securities for exchange or sale.

For more Benzinga, visit Benzinga Professional Service, Value Investor, and Stocks Under $5.




Unbelievable

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

S&P 500 close

Dec 31, 2010: 1257.64

Dec 30, 2011: 1257.60

In one of the most volatile years on record…


Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog




American Capital Announces the Purchase of 8.4 Million of Its Shares at $6.97 per Share Average

Courtesy of Benzinga.

American Capital, Ltd. (Nasdaq: ACAS) announced today that since early November it has made open market purchases of 8.4 million shares of American Capital common stock, or 2.5% of the Company’s outstanding shares of common stock as of September 30, 2011, at an average of $6.97 per share, totaling $58.7 million. 

For more Benzinga, visit Benzinga Professional Service, Value Investor, and Stocks Under $5.




Simple 2012 Trends to Profit from Next

Chris Vermeulen is a trader I’ve been following, and he successfully trades indexes, commodities and the dollar every week. His daily pre-market technical analysis videos are interesting, timely and educational. (See below.)

Chris is doing his onetime new year’s special offer giving his premium trading & education service away at half price until Dec 31st at midnight. 

Simple 2012 Trends to Profit From Next

Courtesy of Chris Vermeulen, The Gold & Oil Guy

HAPPY NEW YEAR!
I hope this week’s price action didn’t catch you off guard? It was profitable but you really had to be on the ball to pocket the gains…

Anyways, I just wanted to wish you a New Year and thank you for being part of my success in 2011 before it’s too late.

Please watch my morning video here (or click on the video image):

******

Read Chris’ Trade Ideas for 2012 Here.

Have a happy and safe New Year’s!




As ’11 Ends, 11 Charts Of 11 Disturbing 11 Year Trends

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As we pop the corks of our proverbial champagne this weekend with an eye to a better year ahead, perhaps it is worth thinking about these 11 incredible trends that have evolved in a rather disturbing manner over the last 11 years. As John Lohman points out, the 21st century has not been pretty for ongoing centrally planned attempts to defer the 30 year overdue mean reversion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(h/t John Lohman)




United Security Bancshares Announces Extension of Share Repurchase Program; May Repurchase Up To 642,785 Shares

Courtesy of Benzinga.

United Security Bancshares, Inc. (Nasdaq: USBI) announced today that its Board of Directors has extended USBI’s existing share repurchase program pursuant to which USBI may repurchase up to 642,785 shares of its common stock. The repurchase program previously approved by the USBI Board of Directors on January 19, 2006 has been extended to expire on December 31, 2012. To date, USBI has repurchased approximately 400,482 shares of common stock under the share repurchase program. Share repurchases under the repurchase program may be made through open market and privately negotiated transactions at times and in such amounts as management deems appropriate in accordance with regulatory requirements. The repurchase program does not obligate USBI to acquire any particular number of shares and may be suspended at any time at USBI’s discretion.

For more Benzinga, visit Benzinga Professional Service, Value Investor, and Stocks Under $5.




Are You Drinking Sam Adams This New Year’s Eve?

Courtesy of Benzinga.

During the holiday season, stocks relating to food and drink frequently perform well. Given how volatile the year has been, investors may be looking for safe assets. Food and beverage industries in the consumer goods sector are traditionally risk-averse and less affected by cycles in the market. Investors may wish to pay attention to these stocks into the New Year.

The brewery industry enjoyed a relatively solid year in 2011. According to The Brewers Association, craft sales jumped 14% to 5.1 million barrels in the first half of 2011 after rising 11% last year, putting them on course to log their fastest annual growth rate since 1996. Over the same time period, the overall beer market declined 1% by volume.

Some investors may consider large companies like Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD), which brews Budweiser, and MillerCoors. Together, they boast a combined U.S. market share of more than 75%. However, for retail investors, it may be better to focus on smaller companies. According to behavioral finance and empirical studies, retail investors may wish to avoid dealing in the stocks that everybody is talking about—instead, investors may want to look at more obscure, small and mid-cap stocks.

Investors may note that Boston Beer Company (NYSE: SAM) has some properties of value. Boston Beer is a major brewer of handcrafted, full-flavored beers. Boston Beer offers over 30 different brews. The company has roughly 1% of the US beer market and 1.42B in market cap. Boston Beer expects to spend as much as $35 million in capital investments next year at its brew-houses in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts. The company’s shipments rose 6% to 1.8 million barrels in the first nine months of 2011. It has the distinction that it’s the largest craft brewery in the country, which has always been a focus of the company.

However, there is one important fact that investors may not want to overlook: Boston Beer has been implementing a just-in-time inventory program, as it intends to deliver fresher and better tasting beer to consumers. Although this may prove good for the company in the long run, for the time being, the program has been a drag on earnings thanks to increased implementation costs.

Financial
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Phil's Favorites

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner  

I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc.  The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in p...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Zero Hedge

Debt Ceiling 101, Santelli Sounds Off

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In an effort to reach the angry mob, CNBC's Rick Santelli goes all Sesame Street on the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).

...

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Chart School

ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).

Early last December Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its...



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Market Montage

Average Age of U.S. Vehicles Hits Record 10.8 Years

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Some combination of better made cars, and less Americans able to pay new car prices has conspired to push up the average age of U.S. vehicles to a new record high.  Reflecting this sea change, one of the best investment g...



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Insider Scoop

Research in Motion Surging after Prem Watsa Stake

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shares of battered tech company Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) are seeing much strength during Friday's trading session.

Fairfax Financial Holdings released a 13G filing with the SEC this morning, in which they disclosed a 5.12% stake in Research in Motion.

Currently, shares of Research in motion are up over 4% at $16.85. Over the last year, Research in Motion is down over 72%.

Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. RIM provides platforms and solutions for access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service.

...

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 1/27/2012

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.CZZSTRONGBUYThe recent earnings history for Cosan Ltd shows significant improvement while projected valuation continues to rise.STLDBUYProjected value continues to rise for Steel Dynamics while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.PSESTRONGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a fe...

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ETF Selector

Wall Street Party Hangover (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GLD)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major markets and major index ETFs corrected slightly today after the stock market’s euphoric party yesterday

Major markets suffered a slight hangover today, as the S&P 500 dropped .57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .18%, the NASDAQ dropped .46% and the Russell 2000 Index dropped .34%, after yesterday’s crazy Fed and Tech Sector induced Wall Street Party.  The NASDAQ, in particular, partied very hard, so hard in fact that the NASDAQ reached its 11 year record high.

The major market index ETFs were hungover too as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lowered .51%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ...



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Option Review

Big Prints In Deutsche Bank Put Options

 

Today’s tickers: DB, ATHN & LSI

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I'll post the previous week's P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general! AA Money Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance. Previous week P&L - $400.00 We lost some ground this week, but we'll keep on selling premium! FAS Money We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope. Previous week P&L - $4372.00...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: QE-cating

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. We discuss the Fed's next move, and it's new policy for more QE-cating.  Brief review of Sabrient's trade ideas for 2012 (already doing well) and a few new buy-writes from Phil and Pharmboy. Enjoy! (Feedback appreciated - give some life to the comment section below.)

Click this link for this weekend's newsletter, and sign in or sign up.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game.  More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline.  In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up.  I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect.  I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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