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Archive for 2011

Is the Stock Market Cheap?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s “as reported” earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for July 2011, which is 1325.18. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1292.28 (which this month gives the same ratios to the first decimal). For the latest earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor’s latest earnings spreadsheet.


● TTM P/E ratio = 15.6 (15.6)
● P/E10 ratio = 22.7 (22.7)



The Valuation Thesis

A standard way to investigate market valuation is to study the historic Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio using reported earnings for the trailing twelve months (TTM). Proponents of this approach ignore forward estimates because they are often based on wishful thinking, erroneous assumptions, and analyst bias.

TTM P/E Ratio

The “price” part of the P/E calculation is available in real time on TV and the Internet. The “earnings” part, however, is more difficult to find. The authoritative source is the Standard & Poor’s website, where the latest numbers are posted on the earnings page. (See the footnote below for instructions on accessing the file).

The table here shows the TTM earnings based on “as reported” earnings and a combination of “as reported” earnings and Standard & Poor’s estimates for “as reported” earnings for the next few quarters. The values for the months between are linear interpolations from the quarterly numbers.

The average P/E ratio since the 1870′s has been about 15. But the disconnect between price and TTM earnings during much of 2009 was so extreme that the P/E ratio was in triple digits — as high as the 120s — in the Spring of 2009. In 1999, a few months before the top of the Tech Bubble, the conventional P/E ratio hit 34. It peaked close to 47 two years after the market topped out.

As these examples illustrate, in times of critical importance, the conventional P/E ratio often lags the index to the point of being useless as a value indicator. “Why the lag?” you may wonder. “How can the P/E be at a record high after the price has fallen so far?” The…
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DeBT CeiLiNG CeLeBRaTioN!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

DEBT CEILING ELEVATION (CELEBRATION)

(Celebration, Kool and the Gang)

WilliamBanzai7

Yahoo! Yahoo!

Celebrate good times come on !

- Let’s elevate!

Celebrate good times come on !

- Let’s elevate!

There’s a drunken debt party going on right here…a debt ceiling elevation to last throughout our bankrupt years.

So bring your subprime dimes and your taxes too we’re gonna celebrate our new debt ceiling with you !

Come on now people let’s all celebrate and have a debtor’s celebration we go elevate and have a really good time.

It’s time to burn cash together it’s up to you watch you treasure everyone around the world come on…

Yahoo! Yahoo! celebrate good times come on let’s elevate! Repeat

We’re gonna have a good time tonight let’s celebrate it’s alright we’re gonna have a good time tonight

( Celebration ) let’s elevate! ( Celebration ) it’s air tight baby!

Celebrate good times come on let’s clebrate celebrate good times come on it’s a debt ceiling elevation.

Celebrate good times come on let’s celebrate celebrate good times come on it’s a debt ceiling celebration.

Come on and celebrate – tonight ’cause everything’s gonna be alright.

Let’s celebrate celebrate good times come on let’s celebrate celebrate good times come on !

 

DEBT BRIEFING .

THE DEBT CEILING .

PREPARATION B

 

ROCKEM SOCKEM DEBT DOUCHE BAGS

WHITE HOUSE MEETING (ROCKEM SOCKEM DOUCHEBAGS)

. PLAN O .

PLAN O TO CAPITAL HILL

ARRIVAL: PLAN O TO CAPITAL HILL .

TEA HURDLING .

MR T PARTY

SUPER BONER

 

MT

 

ON THE LOOSE

. PADDY WAGON

THE SWEEPER

. BRUSH HOBO

 

BOMBING SOCIAL SECURITY 

D52 .

THE VIEW FROM WALL STREET

PARTS OF THE BRAIN INVOLVED IN FEAR RESPONSE

. FEDERAL PINK SLIP

Send it to your Congress Douche





Swing trading virtual portfolio – week of August 1st, 2011

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio





Top 8 Cities by GDP: China vs. The U.S.

Courtesy of EconMatters

China SignPost™ did an interesting analysis on the top eight cities of China based on economic output. The study finds China’s eight largest cities still trail the eight largest U.S. cities substantially in terms of economic output.

For instance, Shanghai, the largest Chinese city with the highest economic production, and a fast-growing global financial hub, is far from matching or surpassing New York, the largest city in the U.S. and the economic and financial super center of the world. In fact, Shanghai was trailing the 8th-largest U.S. city--San Francisco--by nearly 50% in 2009 (See Chart). By the way, China SignPost™ picked eight cities because of the number 8’s significance as a sign of good fortune in Mainland China. 

As to finding an equivalent GDP counterpart in the U.S., the $221-billion economic output in 2009 of Shanghai put it on par with Seattle. Beijing, ranked no. 2 in China, is equivalent to Phoenix’s GDP (See Map.) In terms of purchasing power parity adjusted economic output, based on 2009 data from the IMF, Shanghai was worth about $400 billion—roughly equivalent to Washington DC and larger than Dallas or Houston.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, IHS Global Insight, China SignPost™
 

Social-economically, the analysis found a stark contrast between the U.S. and China in the urban-suburban-rural divide. Chinese cities represent a greater proportional concentration of wealth and consumption, whereas suburbs and satellite cities are often the areas of significant wealth in the U.S. And some areas in the Midwest, West, and Southwest of the U.S. are further boosted by natural resources such as energy and agriculture, and tourism.

Not surprisingly, due to a higher degree of urbanization in the U.S., these 8 largest cities in China accounted for roughly 21% of GDP in 2009, while their U.S. peers accounted for nearly 30% of GDP in 2009. This also illustrates the relatively bigger role that China’s rural economy plays in the nation’s economic growth. China’s large pool of rural consumers and the substantial consumption growth potential is one factor that has attracted foreign investment flows.

By nominal GDP, these major cities of China could be ranked in the global top 65 nation list. A McKinsey Global study estimated that from 2007 to 2025, the China region’s 225 cities included in the study alone will…
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Obama Says Debt Deal Reached, America To Avoid Default, Or “Hank Gave Us A 3 Page Term Sheet; Boehner Gives Us A 7 Slide Powerpoint”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a much anticipated statement, Obama just announced that he has struck a deal with Boehner on the debt and the deficit, which will allow the US to avoid default. And also, as Reuters adds, Obama said that spending cuts included in deal to raise the debt ceiling will not happen so quickly that they will drag on the fragile U.S. economy. In other words, there will be no cuts for the immediate future. But there will be a single $2.4 trillion debt ceiling raise (based on a Joint Committee green light, LOL) just as Obama desired. And of course, there will be no tax hikes. Bottom line: there will be about $40 billion in actual, real spending cuts until the next, $16.7 trillion debt ceiling limit is hit some time in Q1 2013, at which point it will have to be raised to $20+ trillion. But no really, they are cutting spending and all that.

Just as Zero Hedge predicted all along.

Now comes the brief relief rally.

Then comes the hangover.

More from the AP:

Ending a perilous stalemate, President Barack Obama announced agreement Sunday night with Republican congressional leaders on a compromise to avoid the nation’s first-ever financial default. The deal would cut more than $2 trillion from federal spending over a decade.

 

Default “would have had a devastating effect on our economy,” Obama said at the White House, relaying the news to the American people and financial markets around the world. He thanked the leaders of both parties.

 

House Speaker John Boehner telephoned Obama at mid-evening to say the agreement had been struck, officials said.

 

No votes were expected in either house of Congress until Monday at the earliest, to give rank-and-file lawmakers time to review the package.

 

But leaders in both parties were already beginning the work of rounding up votes.

 

In a conference call with his rank and file, Boehner said the agreement “isn’t the greatest deal in the world, but it shows how much we’ve changed the terms of the debate in this town.”

 

Obama underscored that point. He said that, if enacted, the agreement would mean


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Obama Says Debt Deal Reached, America To Avoid Default

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a much anticipated statement, Obama just announced that he has struck a deal with Boehner on the debt and the deficit, which will allow the US to avoid default. And also, as Reuters adds, Obama said that spending cuts included in deal to raise the debt ceiling will not happen so quickly that they will drag on the fragile U.S. economy. In other words, there will be no cuts for the immediate future. But there will be a single $2.4 trillion debt ceiling raise (based on a Joint Committee green light, LOL) just as Obama desired. And of course, there will be no tax hikes. Bottom line: there will be about $40 billion in actual, real spending cuts until the next, $16.7 trillion debt ceiling limit is hit some time in Q1 2013, at which point it will have to be raised to $20+ trillion. But no really, they are cutting spending and all that.

Just as Zero Hedge predicted all along.

Now comes the brief relief rally.

Then comes the hangover.

More from the AP:

Ending a perilous stalemate, President Barack Obama announced agreement Sunday night with Republican congressional leaders on a compromise to avoid the nation’s first-ever financial default. The deal would cut more than $2 trillion from federal spending over a decade. 

Default "would have had a devastating effect on our economy," Obama said at the White House, relaying the news to the American people and financial markets around the world. He thanked the leaders of both parties.

House Speaker John Boehner telephoned Obama at mid-evening to say the agreement had been struck, officials said.

No votes were expected in either house of Congress until Monday at the earliest, to give rank-and-file lawmakers time to review the package.

But leaders in both parties were already beginning the work of rounding up votes. 

In a conference call with his rank and file, Boehner said the agreement "isn’t the greatest deal in the world, but it shows how much we’ve changed the terms of the debate in this town."

Obama underscored that point. He said that, if enacted, the agreement would mean "the lowest level of domestic spending since Dwight Eisenhower was president" more than a half century ago. 


continue reading





Obama Says Debt Deal Reached, America To Avoid Default

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a much anticipated statement, Obama just announced that he has struck a deal with Boehner on the debt and the deficit, which will allow the US to avoid default. And also, as Reuters adds, Obama said that spending cuts included in deal to raise the debt ceiling will not happen so quickly that they will drag on the fragile U.S. economy. In other words, there will be no cuts for the immediate future. But there will be a single $2.4 trillion debt ceiling raise (based on a Joint Committee green light, LOL) just as Obama desired. And of course, there will be no tax hikes.

Just as Zero Hedge predicted all along.

Now comes the brief relief rally.

Then comes the hangover.

More from the AP:

 
 

Ending a perilous stalemate, President Barack Obama announced agreement Sunday night with Republican congressional leaders on a compromise to avoid the nation’s first-ever financial default. The deal would cut more than $2 trillion from federal spending over a decade.

Default "would have had a devastating effect on our economy," Obama said at the White House, relaying the news to the American people and financial markets around the world. He thanked the leaders of both parties.

House Speaker John Boehner telephoned Obama at mid-evening to say the agreement had been struck, officials said. 

No votes were expected in either house of Congress until Monday at the earliest, to give rank-and-file lawmakers time to review the package.

But leaders in both parties were already beginning the work of rounding up votes. 

In a conference call with his rank and file, Boehner said the agreement "isn’t the greatest deal in the world, but it shows how much we’ve changed the terms of the debate in this town."

Obama underscored that point. He said that, if enacted, the agreement would mean "the lowest level of domestic spending since Dwight Eisenhower was president" more than a half century ago.

Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid provided the first word of the agreement.

"Sometimes it seems our two sides disagree on almost everything," he said. "But in the end, reasonable people were able to agree on this: The United States could not take


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China’s Answer To Inflation: SkyNet – Foxconn Plans To Replace Workers With Millions Of Robots

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

SkyNet has taken over the market, it now appears poised to make labor and wages redundant (and while we hardly welcome our new robotic overlords, we doubt anyone would shed a tear if the House and Senate replaced its 535 corpulent windbags with a bunch of Johnny 5s engaged in binary colloquies). The world’s biggest non-debt based slave-driver, Taiwanese technology giant Foxconn, also known as the place where all of your iPhones, Pads, etc, are made, has just announced that it will deal with rising wages by doing what US-based quants have figured out years ago: outsource it all to robots. About a million of them. The irony is that the last time we looked at Foxconn, we asked: “what happens when this million realizes it can only buy half a McRib sandwich with the money it makes, courtesy of the primary US export to China, and demands a pay raise. What happens to Apple margins then?” We now have our answer. Per Xinhua: “Taiwanese technology giant Foxconn will replace some of its workers with 1 million robots in three years to cut rising labor expenses and improve efficiency, said Terry Gou, founder and chairman of the company, late Friday. The robots will be used to do simple and routine work such as spraying, welding and assembling which are now mainly conducted by workers, said Gou at a workers’ dance party Friday night.” As a reminder, with over 1 million workers, Foxconn has enough people on its payroll that if mobilized would be the 5th largest army in the world, and just after WalMart in total number of employees, albeit instead of spread out around the world, are all concentrated in one small space.

More:

The company currently has 10,000 robots and the number will be increased to 300,000 next year and 1 million in three years, according to Gou.

Foxconn, the world’s largest maker of computer components which assembles products for Apple, Sony and Nokia, is in the spotlight after a string of suicides of workers at its massive Chinese plants, which some blamed on tough working conditions.

The company currently employs 1.2 million people, with about 1 million of them based on the Chinese mainland.

What happens when other Chinese companies, flush with…
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The Fiat Crack Addict is Convulsing and Headed Straight for The DTs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Cognitive Dissonance.

The Fiat Crack Addict is Convulsing and Headed Straight for The DTs

By

Cognitive Dissonance

 

For years I have seen strong parallels between the self destructive gyrations of the terminally addicted and the nation states of today who are all following similar paths to self immolation. I suppose I shouldn’t assume that the reader is in agreement with me that the world’s economic and social systems are in deep trouble and headed for a disastrous fall. On the other hand if you don’t agree with this assessment, it seems odd that you would be reading this in the first place. So for the sake of brevity (something I usually avoid at all costs) let’s agree that the issues we are facing are unprecedented in this so-called modern economic era and move on.

Those who have never been, or are not currently, addicted to drugs, alcohol or any other addictive substance or state of mind, can never quite comprehend what addiction is really all about. Take alcohol for example. If you have never experienced the absolute inability to stop after just two or three beers, or two or three drinks, the idea of being completely and utterly unable to stop drinking until you are thoroughly drunk or passed out is simply beyond comprehension. “Just stop for crying out loud. What the hell’s wrong with you?”

Oh sure, we might be able to ‘understand’ addiction, meaning we can indulge in the intellectual process of imagining what it is like by putting ourselves in their shoes. And no doubt this does bring about a greater understanding. But to truly comprehend the total body, mind and spiritually destructive experience of being thoroughly addicted is simply impossible for those who are not, or have never been, addicted. Period! Full stop! If you were to spend some time talking to people who were at one point or another completely engulfed by their addiction and who now have substantial recovery time under their belt, I would wager most of them would agree with my assessment.


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“It’s Time To Close The National Money Hole”

I’ve posted this before, but it’s totally hilarious.  Courtesy of The Daily Bail (intro) and The Onion (video).

Satirical gold from the Onion.  The Maxine Waters character is off the charts.

  • "My father worked 2 jobs so he’d have money to put in the money hole."
  • "No reasonable person is advocating that we are going to stop destroying money."




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

United States Of Newspeak - Obama Spins Executive Orders As "Presidential Memoranda" To Avoid Scrutiny

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

If there’s one thing we have learned about Barack Obama, it’s that he is a master of deception and absolutely loves to lie to the public. He seems to enjoy conning the plebs to such a degree, I think he actually receives blasts of dopamine every time he does it. The bigger the lie, the better the rush.

The latest example relates to his issuance of executive orders, or lack thereof, something that Obama Inc...



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Phil's Favorites

Competitive Theories: "Deflation Warning" vs. "Inflation is Nearly Everywhere"

Courtesy of Mish.

Theory #1: Break-Even Rates Provide "Deflation Warning"

Bloomberg is sounding a Deflation Warning as 2-Year Break-Even Rates Go Negative.

Break-even rates are the difference between treasuries and the same-duration Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The break-even rate turned negative yesterday for the first time since 2009.

In theory, break-even rates reflect investors’ expectations for inflation over the life of the securities.

When break-even rates are negative, it's an indication investors expect price deflation for the duration, in this case for two years.

From Bloomberg ...
The drop in the break-even rate followed a Labor Depart...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Chart School

Relief Bounce in Markets

Courtesy of Declan.

Those who took advantage of markets at Fib levels were rewarded.  However, this looked more a 'dead cat' style bounce than a genuine bottom forming low.  This can of course change, and one thing I will want to see is narrow action near today's high. Volume was a little light, but with Christmas fast approaching I would expect this trend to continue.

The S&P inched above 2,009, but I would like to see any subsequent weakness hold the 38.2% Fib level at 1,989.


The Nasdaq offered itself more as a support bounce, with a picture perfect play off its 38.2% Fib level. Unlike the S&P, volume did climb in confirmed accumulation. The next upside c...

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Digital Currencies

Chart o' the Day: Don't "Invest" in Stupid Sh*t

Joshua commented on the QZ article I posted a couple days ago and perfectly summarized the take-home message into an Investing Lesson. 

Chart o’ the Day: Don’t “Invest” in Stupid Sh*t

Courtesy of 

The chart above comes from Matt Phillips at Quartz and is a good reminder of why you shouldn’t invest in s...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Energy sector rains on bulls' parade, but skies may clear soon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks have needed a reason to take a breather and pull back in this long-standing ultra-bullish climate, with strong economic data and seasonality providing impressive tailwinds -- and plummeting oil prices certainly have given it to them. But this minor pullback was fully expected and indeed desirable for market health. The future remains bright for the U.S. economy and corporate profits despite the collapse in oil, and now the overbought technical condition has been relieved. While most sectors are gathering fundamental support and our sector rotation model remains bullish, the Energy sector looks fundamentally weak and continues to ran...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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