Courtesy of Doug Short.
The three-day weekend, the rally in the Shanghai on a weak but better-than-consensus China GDP, copycat gains in Europe, surging US futures … and what did these mean for the S&P 500? A Tuesday pop-and-slide. The index hit a morning high above 1300, up over one percent, and then it slowly exhaled most of the advance during the afternoon to close up a mere 0.36%. The index has a year-to-date gain of 2.86%.
From an intermediate perspective, the S&P 500 is 91.2% above the March 2009 closing low and 17.3% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
