XRT/DC – Well it's not a demographics play, more like a consumers are exhausted play. That's a great article!
]]>Futures up a bit but I'm not ready to call it a bottom just yet but we may have a Greece is Fixed (again) rally tomorrow, which is why I liked that QQQ spread as we had two ways to win for the week.
Nasdaq (/NQ) can be played below the 2,600 line, RUT (/TF) below 790, Dow (/YM) below 12,800, oil below $105.50 (/CL) and gold (/YG) below 1,690 so that's 5 to watch and 3 of 5 below is a green light to short the other two and 3 of 5 above would be a signal to get out. Dollar 79.775 at the moment so we're looking to take back 79.80 to confirm bullishness.
Euro at $1.3133 and below that $1.31 line is a critical breakdown that can lead to panic. $1.57 on the Pound it the same (now $1.5724) and the Yen is at 80.71, indicating they have too many Euros and not enough Dollars – it would be very bad timing for the bulls if they chose today to rectify that.
6:00 AM Overseas: Japan -0.6%. Hong Kong -0.9%. China -0.7%. India -0.2%. London +0.3%. Paris +0.6%. Frankfurt +0.5%
European shares are mostly up in midday trading following yesterday's sharp sell-off as some investors bet that the game of chicken between Greece, the troika and bondholders will ultimately end well. Euro STOXX 50 +0.4%, London +0.3%, Paris +0.7%, Frankfurt +0.4%, and Milan +0.9%, although Madrid is -0.6%.
]]>German factory orders come in far worse than expected, -4.9% Y/Y in January vs. -1.7% consensus. Orders are -2.7% M/M vs. +0.5% consensus.
Combined sales at China's 77 largest steelmakers fell 8.5% in January from a year earlier to 260b yuan, citing an official at the China Iron and Steel Association. Profitability in February and after aren't optimistic, the official said.
Morgan Stanley(MS): There's Something Weird Going On With The Economic Data.
Sarkozy Proposes Minimum Corporate Tax. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said he’ll create a new tax that would force large French companies to pay a minimum amount of tax.
Australia's GDP climbed 0.4% in Q4, just half the 0.8% gain economists had expected, while Q3 was revised down to +0.8% from +1%. Year-on-year, the economy grew 2.3%. A housing slump deterred consumer spending and the report covers a period when the eurozone's crisis weighed on Asian demand for commodities.
Congress Poll Rout in India Risks Economy as Gandhi Flops Again. India's ruling Congress party was routed in regional elections, a defeat that shattered claims by its chief campaigner Rahul Gandhi to have rebuilt support and endangers the government's agenda to boost a flagging economy. Gandhi, 41, touted to replace his mother as Congress chief this year, took responsibility for the party's performance in India's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh where it was set to win 7 percent of seats. An unexpected loss in Punjab underscored how Congress is struggling to escape blame for rising prices and alleged corruption two years before a national ballot.
Prices Pressure Asia Central Banks to Pause. Asia-Pacific central banks will probably hold off on adding monetary stimulus this week as higher oil prices combine with diminishing concern of a euro- region meltdown to make the case for preserving firepower.
Why Bad Money in China Drives Out The Good. China to suffer as long as politics placed above market.
Gold Set for Worst Run This Year as Commodities Slump on European Concerns. Gold may drop for a fourth day in the worst run this year as concern resurfaced that Europe’s debt crisis will slow growth, strengthening the dollar and eroding demand for alternative investments.
Despite the cost of generic drugs falling sharply, the prices of treatments used mostly by older Americans rose nearly 26% from 2005-2009, a new study (.pdf) by AARP shows. The pharmaceutical industry slammed the "misleading" report for ignoring "key facts about the marketplace."
With Greece's debt-swap deadline a mere day away, posturing continues from both bondholders and Greek officials, but some of the largest private holders are falling in line. SocGen, Assicurazioni Generali and UniCredit all say they'll participate in the swap, as will Greece's six largest banks.
Carefully Orchestrated Moves Set Stage for Greek Debt Deal. Greece is unlikely to get all of its bondholders to agree willingly to a debt-restructuring plan before a Thursday deadline, but it repeated Tuesday that it is ready to force the deal through by other means. Greece stepped up pressure on its creditors Tuesday, saying it won't have money available to pay bondholders who resist. Creditors have until Thursday evening to decide whether they will accept the deal, which replaces existing bonds with a package of new securities with less than half of the face value.
European Banks Now Face Huge Margin Calls As ECB Collateral Crumbles.
Split decisions on Super Tuesday – including a big delegate split in the fragile-employment key state of Ohio (still some 500K nonfarm jobs below its year-2000 peak) – mean a longer haul for the GOP primaries, with 67% of delegates still at stake after today. A Romney-Obama matchup is still likely, though tonight's results may have less impact on the presidential race than this Friday's jobs report might.
Young Adults See Their Pay Decline. Young people entering the job market are taking the brunt of the downward pressure on wages caused by high unemployment, according to a new analysis of pay trends. In data compiled for a coming report, the Economic Policy Institute, a center-left think tank in Washington, found that the average inflation-adjusted hourly wage for male college graduates aged 23 to 29 dropped 11% over the past decade to $21.68 in 2011. For female college graduates of the same age, the average wage is down 7.6% to $18.80.
Corruption/Pstas – Yes but in the same article your statement is from, the same guy goes on to say the real problem is the corrupting influence of money in politics – that's kind of my whole general point. I am very glad you now think the government should be building more schools and paying for "Cadillac health insurance" but I'll just be happy if they pay for the regular kind…
Gas/StJ – That one is really annoying and it's amazing how many people are now parroting this nonsense. Now it's almost as if they purposely tanked gas into Obama's inauguration just so they could claim, 4 years later, that he caused the prices to go back up. Now it's backfiring on them because Obama and the rest of the Dems are finally going after speculators – hopefully this time it will be something with teeth.
NFLX/StJ – They are going to blow up the bandwidth very soon and it will be a major issue. Watson will fix everything in the Financial sector, at least. That thing will put millions of people out of work in the next decade.
Cramer/Scott – Been a long time..
Spain/Dmor – Good for them, it needs to be done. EU demands of austerity are ridiculous and only damage the countries long-term.
Meanwhile, Hang Seng and Nikkei down 0.75% and BSE down 0.6% but the Shanghai bounced at 2,400 and is flat at the moment.
Dollar 79.77, Euro $1.3136, Pound $1.5725, 80.68 Yen to the Dollar, no point in even mentioning the Swiss as it never changes.
Our Futures are: Dow 12,766, S&P 1,344, Nas 2,594 and RUT 788 with oil at $104.98, gold $1,676, silver $32.90, copper $3.76, nat gas $2.33 and gasoline $3.24.
]]>Split decisions on Super Tuesday – including a big delegate split in the fragile-employment key state of Ohio (still some 500K nonfarm jobs below its year-2000 peak) – mean a longer haul for the GOP primaries, with 67% of delegates still at stake after today. A Romney-Obama matchup is still likely, though tonight's results may have less impact on the presidential race than this Friday's jobs report might.