Courtesy of Doug Short.
The S&P 500 opened in the shallow red and rallied about seven points to a mid-morning high, then bounced off the flatline at the noon hour. The afternoon saw a steady advance to a modest gain of 0.57%. So, what was the covert drama? It took place near the close: Would the index finish the day above its 200-day moving average? The index hit its intraday high of 1,287.62 six minutes before the close, topping the 200-day MA of 1,285.68. But some selling in the last five minutes took the index to 1,285.50, just 12 basis points below the 200-day threshold. Let’s just say it was a fairly dull day, and the battle with the 200-day MA was the only hint of excitement.
The index is now up 2.22% for 2012, which is 9.41% off the interim closing high of April 2nd.
From an intermediate perspective, the S&P 500 is 90.0% above the March 2009 closing low and 17.9% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
