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Friday, March 29, 2024

S&P 500 Snapshot: Today’s Moving-Average Mini-Drama

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Election week is history, the bond market was closed in observance of Veteran’s Day and the Fiscal Cliff is getting stiff competition (no pun intended) from the Petraeus Affair. The major US indexes went nowhere. To two decimal places the Dow was unchanged, the Nasdaq fell a fractional 0.02% and the S&P 500 rose a microscopic 0.01%.

But there was some drama in the S&P 500 today … at least for those of us watching the ongoing dance with its 200-day moving average. The magic number today was 1,381.29. Would the index close above or below the line?

Here is a 5-minute chart of the Veteran’s Day zig-zag around the 200-day moving average.


Now for a minute-by-minute look at the closing drama.

Here is a longer look back at the index and its 50- and 200-day moving averages.

The index is now up 9.73% for 2012. From a longer-term perspective, the S&P 500 is 104.0% above the March 2009 closing low and 11.8% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

 

 

 

 

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

 

 

 

 

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