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Swing trading portfolio – week of November 26th, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 


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Comments (reverse order)


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  1. albo

    FB strong.

  2. pstas

    GLUU- insider buying
    http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1366246.htm

  3. bamse

    Good morning all… Hope you are all sufficiently Turkeyed out… Toronto Argos win the Grey Cup and AAPL and FB are up, good start to the week!

  4. bamse

    Optrader, spreadsheet above is out of date… missing LULU etc

  5. Optrader
    Facebook breaks out, levels to watch
    The shares are up over 3.6% at time of writing, breaking out above last week's high. Shares are now trading back into the prior large bearish gap from July. This is bullish price behavior. Next resistance is at $25.52, and then at $26.83. Support is at $24.25. :theflyonthewall.com
  6. Optrader
    Netflix may see more competition from Amazon.com in 2013, says ITG Research
    ITG Research said Amazon's (AMZN) Prime has had little impact on Netflix (NFLX) but could become more of a competitive threat in 2013 given its expanding content library and streaming video focus. :theflyonthewall.com
  7. bamse

    merci

  8. Optrader

    Rolled-up FB again, and booked some profits. Still full position. This is turning into one of those big winners ;-)

  9. albo

    Yes it is !    What was your roll ?

  10. Optrader

    I rolled from 23's and 24's to 25's and 26's. Still December.

  11. Optrader

    DECK testing the 50MA.

  12. bamse

    I rolled FB to 25's. Off the top of my head, I think we are now playing with the house's money on that one.

  13. albo

    I'm in Jan 20 & 22s.  Roll & sell some Dec cover?

  14. Optrader

    Yes, Albo, I would do that. When you get too much in the money on those lower priced stocks, it gets more difficult to get in and out, and spread gets too wide. Do not sell covers that are too close.

  15. albo

    Thanks.  BTW it looks like the big money is moving into the stock and overwhelming the supply, at least for now.  Seeing the stock moving up often discourages those insiders who were going to sell.  Hope the trend continues !

  16. Optrader

    /OS Sold 1/3 SBUX calls.

  17. Optrader

    GLUU strong

  18. albo

    AAPL

  19. Optrader

    Go AAPL! 

  20. Optrader

    ARNA testing the top of that flag.

  21. Optrader

    CMG looking weak.

  22. partha

    Opt – do you see AAPL behaving any differently this time (due to the large drop) than in other runs ie. AAPL normally trends well – in either direction and the 5dma pretty much is a tell and in strong runs – ti doesnt break the 5dma.
    Its doing the same thing now – but I still hear people beating the $500 drum even now …

  23. partha

    Enjoy your FB guys … my buy/write is kinda running out of gas …

  24. Optrader

    Partha, yes, still the best way to AAPL is to follow the trend and the 5MA. Ignore the noise ;-)

  25. Optrader

    AAPL-There is the 200MA around $600, so that will be our resistance.

  26. smala766

    Opt, time to add some GLUU ?

  27. Optrader

    GLUU- We added the other day. I am fine with it for now.

  28. Outlier

    Opt,
     
    Are you a FB insider ? LOL.
    This trade was certainly "Out of our Rule Book". Entry, Stop Loss, Exit. Every aspect of it. 

  29. Optrader
    U.S. equities remained pretty numb to the Greek deal
    U.S. equities remained pretty numb to the Greek deal announced overnight and are trading in a neutral fashion heading into the open. The flat reading on durable goods orders was better than expected, though stocks are still fairly slack with the U.S. budget cloud still hanging over the markets. In Asia, Japan's N-225 gained 0.37%, while the HK Hang Seng fell 0.08% and the Shanghai Comp dove 1.3%. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.35% higher. The Dow is 6-points lower, S&P is virtually unchanged and NASDAQ is up 4-points notwithstanding any pending "fair value" adjustments in pre-market action. In M&A news, ConAgra will pay $4.95 B for Ralcorp, boosting its shares some 27% in pre-market trade. There's still plenty of data to come, including home prices and consumer confidence. :theflyonthewall.com
  30. Optrader

    FB- I wish I were an insider LOL. Our entry was not out of our rules, as we entered when 5MA was up and price was above. I also indicated immediately that it would be a trade where I would have no issue averaging down if price dropped.

    For the exit, we are following the rules, letting it run. And will close when price closes below 5MA.

  31. bamse

    FB – nice trade so far….

  32. Optrader

    Started buying some AKAM puts

  33. nicha

    Opt – what do you think of this AAPL analysis?
     
    http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1027591

  34. Optrader

    AKAM dropped right away.

  35. Optrader

    NIcha, this is a decent analysis, based on chart and EW. That being said I do not believe in anyone who tries to predict future prices. I have no idea if AAPL will print new all time high. For now that chart is bullish, and when it is not anymore we will exit our calls.

  36. Optrader

    AKAM-Wow, wish I had gone full position right away

  37. Optrader

    Sold 1/2 of those AKAM puts as they were up almost 50% already. Will buy back later.

  38. albo

    Great daytrade !   Missed this one.

  39. Pharmboy

    FSLR….thar she blows…

  40. Pharmboy

    …and now the water fall….

  41. albo

    Opt – Out of LULU if it closes here ?

  42. Optrader

    /OS Sold remaining CMG calls. All out.

  43. Optrader

    LULU-Will depend if it closes below or above the 50MA.

  44. Optrader

    Shorted some ES. Daytrade.

  45. Optrader

    What do you have for earnings date on LULU?

  46. Optrader

    /OS Sold last SBUX calls

  47. Optrader

    Out of the PGNX

  48. Optrader

    Tough to break 1400

  49. albo

    Briefing.com is showing Dec 6 for LULU.

  50. Optrader

    Thanks.

  51. Optrader

    Looks like we are going to close exactly around 1400

  52. Optrader
    U.S. equities are tilting lower
    U.S. equities are tilting lower as fiscal cliff negotiations resume with meetings between high-powered CEOs and Obama slated for today, following disappointment yesterday when Senate Majority Leader Reid cited lack of progress. This followed a rather bipolar policy debate between Fed hawk Fisher and dove Evans overnight. Spillover from Reid's remarks sank Asian shares with Japan's N-225 off 1.22%, the HK Hang Seng 0.62% lower and the Shanghai Comp down 0.89%. Europe picked up on this negative tone, with the Euro Stoxx 50 off 0.7%, Spain IBEX 1.1% lower and Italian FTSE MIB off 0.97% even after the EU approved the restructuring of the Spanish banking sector. The Dow is 36-points lower, S&P sank 5-points and NASDAQ faltered 8-points in pre-market trade. In corporate news, Costco announced a $7 dividend after beating forecasts and Microsoft confirmed better than expected Windows 8 sales. New home sales, Fed Beige Book and Tsy 5-year note auction are up next. :theflyonthewall.com
  53. Optrader

    Bought back the AKAM puts sold yesterday. Still not full position.

  54. Optrader

    /OB Bought some MOS puts. 3.5% stop.

  55. Optrader

    I shorted the stock on this one, as there was little volume on options.

  56. Optrader

    LPX looks like a good short.

  57. Optrader

    And CSCO

  58. Optrader

    FSLR strong.

  59. Optrader

    /OS Sold 1/3 AAPL calls.

  60. Optrader

    That's some candle being printed on SPX right now. Huge hammer at 200 support.

  61. Optrader

    /OB Bought some NFLX puts. 3.5% stop

  62. dent123

    Opt. How does nflx look for puts

  63. dent123

    Sorry opt  didn't see your post

  64. CaFords

    GLUU having a good day.

  65. Optrader

    /OS let's close lulu puts

  66. albo

    Opt- LULU gone ?

  67. Optrader
    Google upgraded to Buy from Hold at Oracle Research
    Oracle Research upgraded Google based on technicals. Price target is $760. :theflyonthewall.com
  68. Optrader
    Intel price target lowered to $16 from $20 at Goldman
    Goldman lowered Intel estimates to reflect margin risk due to over supply. The firm notes Intel and AMD (AMD) have record inventory and Intel's new capacity has not come online yet while PC client processor ASPs are above trend and could decline meaningfully. The firm reiterates its Sell rating. :theflyonthewall.com
  69. Optrader
    lululemon likely to report higher than expected Q3 EPS, says RW Baird
    RW Baird expects lululemon to report higher than expected Q3 EPS, but the firm believes that the company's Q4 comp guidance may miss expectations. However, the firm expects the company's rapid revenue growth to continue and it maintains an Outperform rating. :theflyonthewall.com
  70. Optrader
    Futures remain higher after weekly jobless data, Q3 GDP revision
    Stock index futures remain higher, indicating a higher open for the broader market. Weekly jobless claims fell to 393,000, versus expectations of 390,000. There were 410,000 jobless claims during the previous week. Third quarter GDP growth was revised up to 2.7% from an initial reading of 2.0%. Analysts expected the revised GDP figure to come in at 2.8%. :theflyonthewall.com
  71. Optrader

    Now we know why the market bounced strongly yesterday…

  72. Optrader

    Yes, Albo, we are out of LULU

  73. albo

    GLUU – Strong again.

  74. Optrader

    CREE very weak. Good looking chart for puts

  75. albo

    So far INTC shrugging off Goldman's sell reiteration.  Guess the 4.5 % dividend helps.

  76. Optrader

    Lots of resistance on SPX around 1422. Good spot to short ES for a daytrade.

  77. Optrader

    Or a little bit sooner LOL

  78. Pharmboy

    QCOR for calls…..this one is going to the 200d MA IMHO.

  79. partha

    Pharm – thanks for PGNX – its moving again

  80. Optrader

    PGNX-Amazing. Good one, Pharm!!

  81. Optrader

    QCOR-Great chart, but the spread on the options is very wide.

  82. Optrader

    I had a tiny bit of FSLR left from the other day. Added a bit here. Probably just for the day with stop at HOD.

  83. Optrader

    FSLR puts.

  84. Optrader

    Dropped hard right after I posted.

  85. Pharmboy

    Big reversal in PGNX….

  86. Pharmboy

    Man, need to refresh b'f I post….(PGNX).  QCOR – yes, bit wide, but if one plays the intraday trend, usually ITM or semi-DITM fill at the intersection.

  87. albo

    Pharm – This is probably nothing.  Stock is 19 cents and basically out of money, but I thought I'd point it out to you.
    http://www.internationalstemcell.com/profiles/investor/NewsPrint.asp?b=1468&ID=59026&m=rl&pop=1&Nav=0&g=583&t=1363

  88. albo

    Sold 1/3 FB as the gap is closing.  Still almost full position.

  89. scottmi

    MOS/Opt – seems to have gone the other way.. closed above 5ma yesterday and jumped up higher today. expect to close today if stays above 5ma?

  90. Optrader

    Yes, scottmi.

  91. Optrader

    CREE!

  92. Optrader

    MOS is at very strong resistance, with both the 50MA and the 200MA. Let's see what happens here.

  93. Pharmboy

    ISCO – right down the street from me…..funny.  I am not a stem cell expert, nor do I like to invest in these types of companies.  Very early on, and not sure what the ramifications are for putting a cell in the body that can differentiate into anything.  i know that microenvironments are good for the cells to turn into the existing area, but there are just too many unknowns….

  94. Optrader

    FB-Gap is now closed.

  95. albo

    Thanks, Pharm.  I threw a small amount of money at it at 19 cents, primarily so I'll keep track of it if anything develops.  But it's definetly a long shot.

  96. albo

    Opt – Nice call on CREE.

  97. Optrader

    FB breaking $27

  98. Optrader

    FB-There is a resistance line at $28. Would be great if we get there.

  99. albo

    ahem….obvious premature evacuation on FB.    Keep going !

  100. partha

    ZNGA showing signs of life

  101. partha

    Congrats on FB –  you guys will make a killing on this one – if it keeps going – full position and in at 21~ - 

  102. Optrader

    Yes, FB has been a great one. Even better as delta has increased significantly along the way and we got to take some profit out.

  103. Optrader

    In fact I just reduced again to take delta off. But still full size.

  104. albo

    C'mon ZNGA, you know you need GLUU.

  105. smala766

    Opt , do you still holding the put bought yesterday on AKAM ?

  106. Optrader

    Keeping MOS

  107. Optrader

    AKAM-Yes. Sold some at bottom yesterday and bought back

  108. Atitlan

    Incredibly fun week!

  109. Optrader
    The U.S. income report undershot expectations
    The U.S. income report undershot expectations with a flat October income gain and a 0.2% consumption drop, following downward revisions for consumption in Q3 and for income in Q2 and Q3 that were revealed in yesterday's Q3 GDP report. The BEA sited likely Sandy distortions in their source data from "24 states", and noted an $18 B downward adjustment that they made to October wages and salaries to account for the storm. Analysts now assume a 0.4% personal income "bounce" in November that partly reverses the October undershoot. The savings rate rose to 3.4% in October after falling through Q3 to 3.3% from a 4.1% (was 4.4%) recent-peak in June, and it's not clear that this is related to the consumer confidence confidence climb into Q4 that followed the summer plunge. Today's report has not altered our Q4 real growth forecast of 1.2% for GDP, though analysts lowered our Q4 real consumption growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.7%, following Q3 growth of 2.7% for GDP and 1.4% for consumption. Analysts expect a 1.9% Q4 rate of climb for the PCE chain price index following the 1.6% Q3 clip. :theflyonthewall.com
  110. Optrader
    Questcor initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho
    Target $28. :theflyonthewall.com
  111. bamse

    Optrader – methodology question. When a trade that we put on goes further OTM, the delta (by identity) decreases and thus our exposure decreases if we hold out # of contracts constant. When this happens, do you continue to increase the number of contracts (i.e. throw more money at the trade) to keep pumping up exposure or do you let your risk dwindle?
    Alternatively, I could see one rolling positions back to an ITM level, as existing positions go OTM, keeping the risk constant…This would also of course require further capital being employed…
    The do nothing approach limits downside, but also limits upside as delta falls and theta rises…

    Thanks!

  112. Optrader

    Bamse, good question. We do not add to those positions. we like to have our risk reduced on trades that go against us. This is another advantage of being long options. 

    That being said, if the trade turns, then we might add at this point.

  113. Optrader

    Except for the rare trade, when we are building-up a position (such as what we did in FB), I do not believe in adding to a loser.

  114. Optrader

    Pretty interesting hammer we are going to print on the monthly chart on SPX for November.

  115. scottmi

    SPX/Opt – indeed, but what does it imply? I am sure it will either go up, or down, or consolidate along..

  116. scottmi

    WHR peaking?

  117. bamse

    Yes. I agree. The laissez faire approach is best. Downside is thus always known and limited to initial investment. 

  118. albo

    FB – Analyst from Wedbush with very strong outlook for FB on CNBC.  One thing he mentioned was when FB gets added to the indices that will create a large amount of buying.

  119. scottmi

    PPO/Opt – looking at the daily chart, is today's candle confirming yesterday reversal and should continue down, or is this a hammer suggesting time to go up again..?

  120. Optrader

    Scottmi, that obviously a very bullish candle. So I would be bullish on a longer term basis (as it is a monthly chart). But with caution as it is still under the 5MA.

  121. Optrader

    PPO-Not a hammer yet. I like my hammers to have green body (closing above entry) or at least a very small red body. For now this chart is still bearish.

  122. Optrader

    Like that hammer on FB today ;-)

  123. albo

    Opt – entry = open ?

  124. scottmi

    NFLX – my trailing stop took me out for profit, but darn. do i get back in?

  125. scottmi

    NFLX – looking like it might try to end the day as one of those green hammers.. hmm.

  126. albo

    scottmi – Could be just bouncing off the 200.  Don't know.  Opt is in puts.

  127. Optrader

    Yes, Albo, I meant "open"

  128. scottmi

    NFLX – reentered puts, half position

  129. albo

    Pharm – Are you still in QCOR calls or did you get out?

  130. scottmi

    Stick – this stick isn't really helping me today.

  131. scottmi

    QLGC – time to go long?

  132. Optrader

    Went long ES. Small position but will keep over the weekend.

  133. Optrader

    Wow, that was weird. What was that?

  134. Optrader

    Anyway, that was a great week, enjoy the weekend!

  135. Pharmboy

    QCOR and AMRN calls….holding for next week.

  136. albo

    Thanks, Pharm.  Would love to see an AMRN deal this weekend.  Dream on !
    Nice close on FB.

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