Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Sign up here for a 30-day FREE trial of our PSW Report! (NO Credit Card required.) Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

View Single Comment

  1. phil

    Good morning!  

    Weather finally got better so we're having a lovely weekend, hope you guys are too.  

    Right now there's a pack of girls sleeping over so this is the only quiet time I get!  

    Obama had a nice meeting with Xi, apparently so we'll see if any new initiatives get announced.  

    President Obama yesterday warned Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to halt his country's hacking of U.S. businesses, saying that continuing the cyber-theft would be a very difficult problem in the nations' economic relationship. Meanwhile, China wants a "level playing field" for its companies that invest in the U.S. Despite the areas of contention, one Chinese participant called the "shirtsleeves" summit "constructive, strategic and historic."

    Meanwhile, China factory prices fell 2.9% in May, indicating crap demand and that's accelerating from 2.6% down in April.  They're talking about a "weak" Q2 and, don't forget, Chinese companies release earnings too, so it's not just US companies we should be concerned about.  

    "In the corporate sector the overall situation is still bad, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises," said HSBC economist Ma Xiaoping. "Output prices are decreasing, which could reflect deteriorating profit margins for them."

    Meanwhile, the central bank said on Sunday that Chinese financial institutions issued 667.4 billion yuan ($107.6 billion) of new yuan loans in May, down from 792.9 billion yuan in April and below economists' expectations. Total social financing, a broader measurement of credit in the economy, came to 1.19 trillion yuan in May, down from 1.75 trillion in April.

     

    The broad M2 money supply also expanded at a slightly slower pace, climbing 15.8% at the end of May compared with a year earlier, against the 16.1% rise at the end of April.

    15.8%!!!  Holy crap, and we thought our Fed was printing a lot of money!   When this Global House of cars finally goes off the rails – it's going to be look out below (crash) or look out above (hyper-inflation) – that's why things are so tricky to play this year and that's why I like – CASH!!!

    Speaking of discounts:  

    Bargain-basement Buffett: After five years of climbing prices to win the annual "lunch with the Oracle of Omaha" auction – last year's winner paid $3.46M - the winning bid this year was a relatively measly $1,000,100. According to eBay there were 106 bids; the winner bidder is as yet unidentified.

    At the close: Dow +1.36% to 15246. S&P +1.28% to 1643. Nasdaq +1.19% to 3465.

    Treasurys: 30-year -1.17%. 10-yr -0.64%. 5-yr -0.34%.

    Commodities: Crude +1.47% to $96.16. Gold -2.66% to $1378.15.

    Currencies: Euro -0.21% vs. dollar. Yen +0.47%. Pound +0.29%.

    Market recap: Stocks powered up and closed near session highs after the monthly jobs report painted a Goldilocks picture of steady economic growth that's slow enough for the Fed to maintain its stimulus policies. Fund clients added to positions and hedge funds closed out some bearish bets, as some of the calm that had prevailed for much of the year was restored. The dollar nosed higher and Treasury prices fell in choppy trading.

     

    F'ing unbelievable:  HFT Robot Art

    Irrespective of today's strong jobs numbers, Doug Kass is sticking to his bearish thesis that market is headed much lower from here. The problem, Kass says, is that "central bank liquidity blurs the line of demarcation between economic reality and stock market euphoria." The narrative now is whether the Fed is simply "pushing on a string," and Kass thinks many market participants are coming to this 'aha' moment." (Video).

    This is the way Blue-Collar America Ends - Automation, computers, robots, higher skill requirements for workers, out sourcing jobs to cheaper labor markets, bringing in cheaper skilled/trained workers from over seas, all are working against the working people. This appears to be a trend and I don’t see most of it stopping soon. The future is here. So where do middle class workers go, lower paying service jobs, unemployment, or fall off the cliff. I see lots of unemployment/ under employment being a permanent thing with standards of living for the masses continuing to fall.

    It's looking like the June policy meeting when the Fed will officially signal it's set to begin tapering asset purchases, according to Jon Hilsenrath. Yesterday's lukewarm jobs reports removed pressure to act right away, but the prerequisite necessary to cut back QE – an improving economy – has been met.

    Twenty-Year Anniversary of Market Backstops

    The percentage of the stock market now owned by hedge funds (5%) is the highest since Q2 2008, BofA Merrill Lynch finds in its Hedge Fund Quarterly Report. Hedge funds reduced cash holdings to the Q2 2007 trough of 4.3%, and raised net equity exposure to the Q2 2007 peak of 59%. Their largest exposure is to consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) followed by IT (XLK) and financials (XLF).

    The rout in junk bonds over the last 5 weeks is well known, but now leveraged loans (BKLNSNLN) have joined the tumble, notes Barclays. It suggests credit is becoming an issue along with higher rates as leveraged loans are floating rate and would seemingly be unaffected by rising Treasury yields. Also affected are short-term high-yield ETFs: HYSSJNK. 

    Watch out when Cramer makes convoluted arguments about why you should be bullish against bearish signals!  CNBC's Jim Cramer isn't worried so much about Fed tapering anymore. He's watching the 10-year bond. "When the ten-year goes down," Cramer says, "people step in and start buying." Stocks like Whirlpool (WHR), Toll Bros (TOL) banks that are levered to mortgages. If we can get 10-year rates to around 2.01% there, he thinks we could have a big rally. (Video). 

    Construction Improves, Yet Is Still Historically Low

    What does it mean to have “predicted the crisis”? (Noahpinion)

    Boring stocks can bring exciting returns, Mark Hulbert discovers, as his research reveals stocks exhibiting the least historical volatility on average comfortably outperform the most "exciting" (i.e., volatile) issues. One believer in the boring-is-beautiful school, Guggenheim Partners' Nardin Baker, likes these stocks: SODKMB,CLCOST. Too volatile are AAPLGSCMSHPQMET.

    Worried about the dreaded QE taper and the market volatility that will likely accompany it? Consider buying shares of CME Group (CME) and CBOE Holdings (CBOE), Barron's says. CMEshould benefit from ambiguity regarding the direction of interest rates as a quarter of "clearing and transaction-fee revenue [comes from] interest-rate derivatives," and CBOE has seen VIX trading volumes rise 111% Y/Y through May. (Also: Wells Fargo likes CME)

    Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to introduce tax cuts for capital expenditure in the autumn as part of the government's sweeping plan to pull the economy out of deflation. The lack of a nationwide reduction in corporate tax disappointed markets when Abe initially unveiled the program last week. He also wants to scrap regulations that shackle research and investment.

    Chinese industrial production +9.2% on year in May vs +9.3% in April and consensus of +9.3% also. Retail sales +12.9%, as expected, vs +12.8% in April. Fixed-asset investment excluding rural areas +20.4% in January-May vs +20.6% in January-April and +20.5% forecast. New local-currency lending -15.9% to 667.4B yuan ($109B), missing forecasts. Aggregate financing +4.4% to 1.19T yuan. "On balance, this weekend’s data is likely to strengthen the calls for a more expansionary macroeconomic policy stance," says RBS economist Louis Kuijs.

    China's exports +1% on year in May vs +14.7% in April and consensus of +5.6%. Imports -0.3% vs +16.8% and +6.6%. Trade surplus +12.3% to $20.4B vs consensus of $19.3B. The sharp slowdown in exports reflect a crackdown on invoicing, which is thought to have distorted the April data, especially regarding Hong Kong. Imports of copper and copper products -14.5%, indicating stuttering domestic demand

    Jeff Immelt believes China is serious about cleaning up its environment, and the GE CEO says he will "double down" his clean energy investments there. But Immelt worries that western CEOs who throw around terms like "green" and "sustainability" are hurting their own cause: "When a Chinese CEO hears the word sustainability, he thinks they're being lectured to by the U.S. on how to do things in an uneconomical way."

    Six families in Pennsylvania are angry with Chevron (CVX) and claim the company's gas wells have made it impossible to "quietly use and enjoy" their land. The Fayette County group seeks "unspecified compensatory and punitive damages" tied to what they say are the pernicious effects of twelve nearby wells which allegedly leak natural gas, methane, and "other toxic radioactive substances," according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg. The suit has not been verified with court records. 

    Ballard Power (BLDP +16%) soars again today on heavy volume. In an earlier press release, the company noted that recent growth in shipments of its ElectraGenTM Telecom Backup Power systems is being driven by the need for backup power in Asian, African and Latin American regions with regular, even daily, power outages due to unreliable electricity grids, as well as markets with reliable grids yet vulnerable to extended power outages in crisis situations.

    GT Advanced (GTAT-2.8% AH after filing a $50M mixed shelf. The struggling solar/LED equipment maker only says it will use the proceeds for "general corporate purposes." GT had $320.2M in cash and $259.6M in debt on its balance sheet at the end of Q1, or a net cash balance of $60.6M. That's down from a net cash balance of $275.9M a year earlier.

    Several plant scientists are questioning conclusions Monsanto (MON) drew from its investigation of an escaped GMO wheat variety, and say there is still a risk that rogue grain is in the seed supply. “Sure they tested it, but that doesn’t mean it’s all clean,” says one. “It just means it’s not so widespread that it could be detected easily."  - Here's a great quote from the Monsanto Representative

    Tesla's (TSLA) a short says Barron's Bill Alpert in a cover story which rehashes familiar arguments, but notes the shares – recently essentially unborrowable – can now be had for a single-digit interest rate. Perhaps the most interesting part of the story is Elon Musk hanging up on Bill Alpert during an interview for the piece: "I have no interest in an article that debates what we consider to be an obvious point – which is that there is a dramatic reduction in battery costs … I am terminating this interview." 

    GameStop's (GME +6.2%) big rally on the Microsoft Xbox One trade-in news "is a gift to short sellers," says SA Pro's Josh Burwick. "Great entry point here." The entry point was even better 3 weeks ago when Burwick penned a piece arguing negative catalysts were emerging and for investors to "look out below." 

    Maxim's John Tinker thinks shares of Barnes & Noble (BKS) are cheap (does that still apply after today's rally?), but says he wouldn't be surprised "if the quarterly numbers are worse than expected" given the likelihood that Chairman Leonard Riggio will "be looking to pay as little as possible" for the retail division. Tinker notes that the retailer trades at a historically low EV/EBITDA ratio.

    Tech companies may be telling the truth by saying they have not provided the National Security Agency with full access to their servers, but they have reportedly taken steps to make data-sharing with the government easier. For example, Facebook (FB) has built a separate and secure portal to which it can deposit data requested by the NSA. Other companies that negotiated with the government include Google (GOOG) Microsoft (MSFT), AOL (AOL) and Apple (AAPL); Twitter has limited its co-operation as much as possible.

    While Sprint (S -1.3%) slumps on a report SoftBank (SFTBF.PK) is talking with Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY.PK) about buying its 74% stake in T-Mobile USA (TMUS +4.1%) should the Sprint deal falter, Dish (DISH +1.5%) has spiked higher, as investors take the report as a sign SoftBank would rather abandon its Sprint efforts than significantly raise its bid. Sources tell Reuters SoftBank and DT have been talking since last year, but that talks "intensified" following Dish's $25.5B offer for Sprint. Clearwire (CLWR +3.3%) has also moved higher, and is now $0.02 above Dish's $4.40/share offer price. (previous) 





Sign up here for a 30-day FREE trial of our PSW Report! (NO Credit Card required.)


See our disclaimer here.

 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Zero Hedge

Orwell Would Be Proud: US Media Admits Divine Right To Decide What Public Needs To Know

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Yesterday afternoon, I happened to read a seemingly innocuous enough article in Time by Justin Lynch titled: Bloggers, Surveillance and Obama’s Orwellian State. The article covered the usual bases. Such as the fact the Obama Administration is the least transparent ever, how it has attacked whistleblowers and journalists more than all other Presidents combined, and how citizen journalists pose...



more from Tyler

Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update: A General Selloff

Courtesy of Doug Short.

All eight indexes on my world markets watch list posted losses for the week, reversing the unanimous gains the week before. The Shanghai Composite's -0.60% was the least bad performance, followed by the S&P 500's -0.90%. The four worst performers were the three European indexes and India's SENSEX, with weekly closes ranging -2.56% to -3.61%.

The Shanghai Composite remains the only index on the watch list in bear territory -- the traditional designation for a 20% decline from an interim high. The index is down 41.03% from its interim high of August 2009. See the table inset (lower right) in the chart below.

Here is a look at 2014 so far.

Here is a t...



more from Chart School

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writrers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The latest Stock World Weekly is now ready for your viewing. Please sign in with your PSW user name and password. (A free trial is also available here.)

 

#451625918 / gettyimages.com

 

...

more from SWW

Insider Scoop

ArcelorMittal Completes Sale of ATIC Stake to HES Beheer - Analyst Blog

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Steel giant ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) has completed the divestment of its 78% stake in European port handling and logistics company ATIC Services S.A. (ATIC) to HES Beheer for €155.4 million (roughly $213 million).

With this transaction, HES Beheer now owns 100% stake in ATIC where it previously held 22% stake. The transaction reflects ArcelorMittal`s strategy of selective deposal of non-core assets.

ArcelorMittal posted a net loss of $0.2 billion or 12 cents per share in first-quarter 2014, narrower than a net loss of $0.3 billion or 21 cents a year ago.

Revenues inched up 0.2% year over year to $19.8 billion in the reported quarter. Sales were almost unchanged from the prior quarter as improved steel shipments were partly offset by lower...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Phil's Favorites

Escape Velocity? As Good As It Gets? Or A Dangerous Economic Extreme?

Escape Velocity? As Good As It Gets? Or A Dangerous Economic Extreme?

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

Initial claims for unemployment remain near bubble record levels after first reaching that extreme in September of last year. The warning signs of a distorted, maladjusted, overheated economy continue.

The headline, seasonally adjusted (not actual) number for initial unemployment claims for the week ended July 5, the 26th week of the year, was 304,000. The consensus guess of Wall Street econ...



more from Ilene

Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



more from Paul

Option Review

Options Active On Amazon.Com

Options on Amazon.com, Inc. (Ticker: AMZN) are seeing heavy volume on the final trading session of the week amid strong gains in the price of the stock, which is currently up more than 4.0% on the day at $342.09 and the highest level since April. At last check, more than 127,000 options contracts have changed hands on Amazon or twice the stock’s average daily options volume of around 63,100 contracts. Call options are more active than puts as of the time of this writing, with the call/put ratio hovering near 1.33 just before midday in New York. The bulk of the volume is in the 11Jul’14 weekly options currently in their final day of trading prior to expiration, and in the 18Jul’14 expiry calls and puts. Amazon.com reports second-quarter earnings after the close of trading on July 24th.

...

more from Caitlin

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 7th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here...



more from OpTrader

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Summer slog likely to keep a lid on further stock gains

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stock investors entered the Fourth of July holiday on a high note, pushing the Dow Jones Industrials Index above 17,000 and the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index above 21,000, and even pushing the S&P 500 to a smidge above the upper trend line of its long-standing bullish ascending channel that has been in place for nearly three years. However, with the Independence Day cheer behind us, persistently overbought technical conditions, and two months of summer doldrums ahead until the Labor Day holiday, I don’t think stocks are likely to muster much in the way of further progress over the near term. This may give bears a chance to make their long-stymied move.  Although bulls should be able to maintain the upper hand in the longer term, I expect bears will finally have their window of opportunity to driv...



more from Sabrient

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

more from Bitcoin

Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



more from Pharmboy

Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



more from Promotions



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>