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  1. phil

    Good morning!  

    Things are holding up so far but not much of a bounce in Asia with the Nikkei up 2% but the /NKD FELL from 13,200 back to 12,900, below where we took the money and ran yesterday on the way up!  Hang Seng up just 0.4% finished at lows of the day and Shanghai up 0.6%, finished at the high of the day.   India went up 1.7% so at least they were happy and I guess we'll call them the tie-breaker.  

    Europe is up about half a point into lunch EXCEPT Italy, who have been in rally mode – they're flat.  

    Our Futures are flat as well with the Dollar at 81.12 and oil way up at $97.23, which is why we don't rush to DD or roll – you never know how crazy these upside pushes can get but there are still 128Mb open in July with 4 sessions to trade them and now there are 570Mb stuffed into the next 3 months so yes, we're going to stick with this one!  

    Gold topped out at $1,395 and back to $1,378, silver $21.67, copper $3.20 (off the floor from $3.16) and Nat gas flat at $3.80, after a mighty push up from $3.72 yesterday and we forgot to go long on gasoline yesterday at $2.80 (every Thursday is a good time to go long on gasoline!) and already back to $2.87 to make sure weekend drivers pay as much as possible at the pump.  

    Shorting oil/Burr – Always you need discipline with the Futures.  If they cross a good line, THEN they're a good short.  It would have been fine to play for a rejection at $97 but $97 was crossed so a quick stop-out there and it climbed to $97.30 and then failed to hold $97.25 quickly so that's a little encouraging but I hate playing those .25 lines as they offer very little resistance (that was obvious on the way up) now it's $97.11 so we HOPE they fall back below $97 so we can go short with a good stopping line but, otherwise, the .50 lines are more reliable than the .00 lines so I'd really like to see $97.50 tried, as that would clearly be silly.

    Oh and McCain wins!  

    Speaking of good crosses, watch the Dow, which is failing 15,100 and that's a nice line to short /YM if it falls with very tight stops over the line and, as above, $97 is the good short line on /CL – also with tight stops over as this market is still TECHNICALLY in bull mode (but Fundamentally, nothing has changed). 

    Euro-Zone Risks Return to Fore

    The recent turbulence rattling global bond markets is unmasking an unpleasant notion in Europe: The euro zone's problems aren't 





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Zero Hedge

Fragile Markets? US Equity Futures Flash-Smash... For No Good Reason

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

First VIX dumped-n-pumped this morning, then Russell 2000 (ETF and Futures) flash-crash at lunch time, and now, amid heavy volume, someone decided it was the perfect time to panic-buy S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq futures...

Some contest to Russell 2000's earlier flash crash...

Th hunt for a narrative t...



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ValueWalk

Howard Marks Investor Series with Bruce Karsh

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Published on May 24, 2017

The?Howard?Marks?Investor?Series?at?The?Wharton?School?brings?high-profile?investors?to?campus?to?share?their?real-world,?practical?investment?perspectives.?In?this?installment,?Howard?Marks?speaks?with?Bruce?Karsh.?Both?are?co-founders?of?Oaktree?Capital Management.

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

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Phil's Favorites

Is the Manufacturing Growth Slowdown No Longer Welcome? Already?

Courtesy of Mish.

On May 15, the Empire State manufacturing report kicked off the start of monthly regional Fed manufacturing reports with a composite reading of -1.0 vs an Econoday consensus expectation of 8.0.

Econoday called the Empire State slowdown “welcome news”. It feared manufacturing was overheating.

Yesterday, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index plunged from 20 to 1. The Econoday consensus estimate was 15 in a range of 13 to 18.

Econoday had this to say regarding the Richmond Fed report:

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth district did expand for the seventh consecutive month...



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Chart School

Rally Keeps Going But New Highs Await

Courtesy of Declan.

The S&P is only a short step away from confirming new highs, but today's action will have kept shorts wary with the risk of whipsaw high. A simple push above 2,406 could deliver an acceleration higher. The one disappointment is the light volume.


The Nasdaq isn't quite as close to the S&P in marking a new high, but today's action did negate yesterday's bearish 'black' candlestick. The 'bull trap' is just a few points away from being consigned to history - can tomorrow deliver?

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Global stocks recover despite China downgrade; Fed minutes due (Reuters)

World stock markets recovered on Wednesday from initial losses after Moody's first credit downgrade of China in 30 years, with investors turning their attention to U.S. Federal Reserve minutes that could provide more certainty of a rate hike next month.

Goldman Sees OPEC Cut Dwarfing U.S. Oil Sale If It Occurs at All (Bloomberg)

OPEC can rest easy even on the off chance that Donald Trump’s plan to sell U.S. oil reserves comes to fruition, according to Goldman Sachs Group...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Soars Above $2000 For First Time Ever

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is now up over 100% in 2017, amid global political uncertainty and increased interest in Asia, suddenly spiking above $2000 this afternoon for the first time ever...

That is a year-over-year gain of more than 350%. The move comes, as CoinDesk notes, amid a broader boost in the cryptocurrency market, which broke the $60bn barrier today. The increase has taken place amid strong surges from Ripple's XRP, which seeks to lower costs in enterprise cross-border payments, and ethereum's ether token, a cryptographic asse...



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Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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