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  1. phil

    Good morning!  

    Things are holding up so far but not much of a bounce in Asia with the Nikkei up 2% but the /NKD FELL from 13,200 back to 12,900, below where we took the money and ran yesterday on the way up!  Hang Seng up just 0.4% finished at lows of the day and Shanghai up 0.6%, finished at the high of the day.   India went up 1.7% so at least they were happy and I guess we'll call them the tie-breaker.  

    Europe is up about half a point into lunch EXCEPT Italy, who have been in rally mode – they're flat.  

    Our Futures are flat as well with the Dollar at 81.12 and oil way up at $97.23, which is why we don't rush to DD or roll – you never know how crazy these upside pushes can get but there are still 128Mb open in July with 4 sessions to trade them and now there are 570Mb stuffed into the next 3 months so yes, we're going to stick with this one!  

    Gold topped out at $1,395 and back to $1,378, silver $21.67, copper $3.20 (off the floor from $3.16) and Nat gas flat at $3.80, after a mighty push up from $3.72 yesterday and we forgot to go long on gasoline yesterday at $2.80 (every Thursday is a good time to go long on gasoline!) and already back to $2.87 to make sure weekend drivers pay as much as possible at the pump.  

    Shorting oil/Burr – Always you need discipline with the Futures.  If they cross a good line, THEN they're a good short.  It would have been fine to play for a rejection at $97 but $97 was crossed so a quick stop-out there and it climbed to $97.30 and then failed to hold $97.25 quickly so that's a little encouraging but I hate playing those .25 lines as they offer very little resistance (that was obvious on the way up) now it's $97.11 so we HOPE they fall back below $97 so we can go short with a good stopping line but, otherwise, the .50 lines are more reliable than the .00 lines so I'd really like to see $97.50 tried, as that would clearly be silly.

    Oh and McCain wins!  

    Speaking of good crosses, watch the Dow, which is failing 15,100 and that's a nice line to short /YM if it falls with very tight stops over the line and, as above, $97 is the good short line on /CL – also with tight stops over as this market is still TECHNICALLY in bull mode (but Fundamentally, nothing has changed). 

    Euro-Zone Risks Return to Fore

    The recent turbulence rattling global bond markets is unmasking an unpleasant notion in Europe: The euro zone's problems aren't 





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Phil's Favorites

Troubling Hints From Fed and Banking System Balance Sheets

Courtesy of Lee Adler of Wall Street Examiner

The Fed’s balance sheet shrank slightly last week as there was a net paydown of MBS [mortgage backed securities]. That will be replaced when the Fed settles its MBS purchases at mid month as it does each month. The Fed has increased its replacement purchases over the past couple of months in order to get the balance sheet back to the unchanged level. Paydowns rose when rates fell earlier in the year and more people refinanced their mortgages. That wave has now ended and paydowns are receding. That will lead to lower Fed replacement purchases [less buying of MBS] in the months ahead, which in turn will mean less support for stock and bond prices.

Bank loans continue to soar as banks lend more, and cash created by the BoJ and ECB flows into the US markets and US banks. The cr...



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ValueWalk

Payday Lender Lobbying And Campaign Spending Top $15 Million For 2014 Election Cycle [Report]

View original post here.

High cost “quick-fix” consumer lenders reported spending more than $15 million to influence Washington decision-makers during the last election cycle, according to an updated report (view or download full report here) released today by Americans for Financial Reform.

The Online Lenders Alliance (OLA) and Community Financial Services Association (CFSA) led the way, with combined contributions of $3.8 million. Top spenders also included some of the major members of these trade associations – the large national chains that dominate the high-cost consumer lending world: ACE Ca...



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Chart School

S&P To Break 2085?

Courtesy of Declan.

A huge bullish reversal after an opening sell off leaves things nicely set for bulls tomorrow. The media attributed a recovery in oil prices to market gains (a rare attribution for oil prices!), but whatever the cause it was a big intraday swing.

The S&P spiked through 200-day MA support on heavy volume accumulation. Other technicals are net bearish, although the index is enjoying a relative performance against Small Caps.


The Nasdaq also spiked low, but not at major support. Although it wouldn't be hard to pick a swing low from previous scrappy trading to mark a support level.

...

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Zero Hedge

Merkel Just Turned The Screws On Greece: There Is Money, But The Deal Is Much Harsher Now (And No Debt Haircut)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Another day came and went with no breakthrough in negotiations between Athens and Brussels as new Greek FinMin Euclid Tsakalotos reportedly showed up to Tuesday's Eurogroup with nothing to discuss. 

With the ECB tightening the screws on Greek banks and the German finance ministry as well as German lawmakers tightening the screws on Angela Merkel, the Chancellor is drawing a hard line toward the Greeks in the face of calls for debt writedowns from the IMF, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras and the Greek people. 

  • MERKEL SAYS IF GREEK REFORM PROPOSALS ARE SATISFACTORY AND PRIOR  ACTIONS TAKEN, SHORT-TERM FINANCE CAN BE PROVIDED: RTRS
  • MER...


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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Trade Deficit increased in May to $41.9 Billion (Calculated Risk)

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in May, up $1.2 billion from $40.7 billion in April, revised. May exports were $188.6 billion, $1.5 billion less than April exports. May imports were $230.5 billion, $0.3 billion less than April imports.

'The Great Fall of China' is hitting other markets (Business Insider)

China's ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Interest rates attempting breakdown, after historic rally!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

From the first of February to the end of June, the yield on the 10-year note shot up nearly 40%. This sharp rally hurt bond funds big time, as TLT suffered one of worst short-term declines in its history, falling 13% in a 16-weeks. (See post here and chart below) 

The strong rally in yields took them to the 2.5% level, where they hit dual resistance at (1) above. This dual resistance was its 2-year falling channel and the 61% level. Now yields could be breaking down from its historic yield ra...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls prepare for a new buying opportunity, courtesy of Greece

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Of course, all eyes have been on Greece in an ongoing saga that, although critical to the Greeks, is mostly just an annoying distraction for global investors -- partly because it has been going on for so many years, with the proverbial can of inevitability continually being kicked down the road, and partly because there can be no winners in this intractable situation. Predictably, the electorate chose to follow the advice of the communists that they elected and reject the rigid bailout offer, calling the bluff of the IMF, ECB, and Eurozone and betting they will do whatever it takes to avoid losing one of its members. These are uncharted waters, and with the resultant s...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 6th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Surges After Initial Forecasts Show "No" Vote Ahead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If the early bitcoin markets are an indication of what will happen once New Zealand opens for illiquid FX trade, it will be a risk off kinda day.

And that doesn't even take into account the pandemonium that will be unleashed in China in a few hours after the PBOC just went all-in to halt the crashing stock market. What if it fails to get a green close before tomorrow's US open?

Source: ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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