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  1. phil

    SCO/Jfaw – Be careful with market sell orders.  At the dead open, the MM can screw you.  The July $36s have a delta of .55 and closed at $1.15 so $1.70 is to be expected.  

    TOS let's you put trailing stop sell orders and, if you have to automate, that's the way to go.  In the STP, we have the $35s at net about $2.15 after buying back the short calls (brilliantly) yesterday.  Those closed at $1.50 and have a delta of .74 so, hopefully, we'll cash out better than even and, as we are on a mission to cash out our open positions even and keep our realized profits, that's going to be fine with us!. 

    Cycles/ZZ – I think, in the larger term, we are stabilizing from the big crash but, unfortunately, stable should be around 1,450 on the S&P, not 1,650.  This is like if you pull a ship underwater in the bathtub, down to the bottom but it's full of air (stimulus) and you let it go and it rises back up and, in fact, goes HIGHER than the surface of the water.  That's where we are now, because the ship went back to the top and even higher – people are extrapolating that the ship can now fly.  That's the difference between TA people and Fundamentalists in a nutshell. 

    Frankly, I think that the end of QE, once the initial shock to the system wears off, will be just what we need to get the economy going as people with savings will begin to get a return on their money and banks, who are sitting on virtually all of the money the Fed has been printing, will finally be forced to actually LEND some of that money out to generate their own income.  Once that massive pile of freshly printed money finally begins to move through the economy, we can hopefully get into a more virtuous cycle.  

    So that's how I reconcile the two and that's what keeps me long-term bullish.  

    Thanks for Fisher Equation – very good for people to understand.  

    Oil/Burr -Well, we did with our USO/SCO plays.  

    Gold/Jfaw – I don't think we get there ($1,100).  The macro is that the drop in gold (for various reasons) caused the massive sell-off in GLD that I've been predicting for years and that flooded the market with physical gold.  Now GLD is about 50% depleted so I don't see it going to zero and, even if 25%, then they can only dump half as much gold going forward as they dumped in the first half of this year, which began at $1,700.  So $350 ($400 today) and another 50% would be $1,100 at worst.  $1,100 is also the point at which most miners lose money extracting gold and, if you've ever seen a gold mining operation, you know they'll shut down long before that happens.  So I think $1,200-$1,250 is worst case and, once GLD is forced back to buying – things can turn around very quickly as the physical market is very tight.  Those are all factors that have nothing to do with inflation or investor confidence or global conflict, which can also drive the price up very quickly. 





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Zero Hedge

Oops! The Economy Is Like A Self-Driving Car

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

Back in 1776, Adam Smith talked about the “invisible hand” of the economy. Investopedia explains how the invisible hand works as, “In a free market economy, self-interested individuals operate through a system of mutual interdependence to promote the general benefit of society at large.”

We talk and act today as if governments and economic policy are what make the economy beh...



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Phil's Favorites

Zero Percent Down Loans in a Raging Bubble: Didn't We Try This Before?

Courtesy of Mish.

Australian parliament member Andrew Broad wants banks to accept zero percent down loans.

New.Au calls the proposal a “creative idea”.

Please consider First homebuyers with a good rental history shouldn’t have to save a deposit, Federal MP says.

IS THIS the lifeline struggling first home buyers have been waiting for?

Well, it’s certainly one of the more creative solutions to the country’s housing affordability crisis.
Federal Nationals MP Andrew Broad has suggested banks should forgo a deposit from first homebuyer...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.



Date Found: Wednesday, 13 July 2016, 03:17:09 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: .."But, investors truly wonder if the moves are sustainable. As we have stressed, the valuation on Utilities looks stretched..."... RTT: No kidding!!



Date Found: Monday, 18 July 2016, 03:28:53 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: Catherine Austin Fitts-The Debt Game Is Over youtu.be/feW-iDhkoiA



Date Found:...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Commodities Have Been Down So Long It May Be Time To Snap Them Up (Forbes)

The post-crisis years have not been good for real assets, the catchall term for commodities, energy, real estate and other investments based on selling real things instead of clever ideas.

A trader psychologist who consulted on Showtime's 'Billions' reveals the biggest mistake traders make (Business Insider)

Denise Shull is a decision coach and performance architect who consulted on Showtime’s&nbs...



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ValueWalk

GNC Suspends Dividend: An Important Lesson on Dividend Safety

By Simply Safe Dividends. Originally published at ValueWalk.

GNC (GNC) surprised many income investors when management recently announced that the company’s dividend will be suspended.

After all, GNC has been in business for more than 80 years, maintains a payout ratio below 40%, generates solid free cash flow, and even increased its dividend every year since it began paying one in 2012 – including an 11% boost just last year.

These are some of the qualities we look for when evaluating companies for our Conservative Retirees dividend portfolio.

None of these strengths mattered, however.

GNC’s double-digit yield was wiped out immediately, adding insult to injury after the stock’s 70%+ decline over the past year.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

How to Use, Trade, Store and Invest in Bitcoin Digital Assets - Step by Step, Part 1

By Reggie Middleton

(Originally published on Zero Hedge)

I will teach novices and experts alike how to fit Bitcoin into an investment portfolio safely and with the optimum risk-adjusted potential - along with step-by-step guides, instructions and tutorials.

This first part of the series starts with the basics, obtaining and managing your bitcoin.

What is Bitcoin?

First off, we need to know what Bitcoin is since most media pundits and even experienced financial types truly do not know. Bitcoin (capital "B") is a protocol driven network (very similar to that other popular protocol-based network, the Internet). This network is a blank tapestry upon which smart and creative actors can paint a cornucopia of applications (just like applicat...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Fear Indicator; Hitting highest levels in history, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Markets have been on a steady rise and the same can be said for Inverse Fear ETF (XIV). Below looks at Inverse Fear ETF (XIV) since the lows in 2011.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

What a difference a year can make! One year ago this week, XIV was testing rising channel support, as relative momentum was hitting levels last seen at the 2011 lows.

...



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Members' Corner

Save Your Relationship?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo".

Our last episode How to Poop At Work? answered the question, what to do when your at a big fancy pants meeting, when out of nowhere, you need to download a brown load?

This week's installment, Save Your Relationship, demonstrates that people will do just about anything to save their relationshits...

...

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Mapping The Market

NSA May Be Withholding Intel from President Trump

By Jean Luc

These GOP guys were so worried about Hillary's email server and now we find out that we had something close to a Russian mole in the White House. In the meantime, Trump keeps on using his unsecured phone, had high level conversation in his resort in front of dinner guests! It's getting so bad that rumors are now circulating that the NSA is not sharing information with the WH:

NSA May Be Withholding Intel from President Trump

By 

….Our spies have had enough of these shady Russian connections—and they are starting to push back….In light of this, and out of worries about the White House’s ability to keep secrets, some of our spy agencies have begun withholding intelligence fro...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night but rooms are limited at that price.

So, if you are planning on being in Vegas (Highly Recommended!), please sign up as soon as possible by sending...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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