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  1. phil

    SCO/Jfaw – Be careful with market sell orders.  At the dead open, the MM can screw you.  The July $36s have a delta of .55 and closed at $1.15 so $1.70 is to be expected.  

    TOS let's you put trailing stop sell orders and, if you have to automate, that's the way to go.  In the STP, we have the $35s at net about $2.15 after buying back the short calls (brilliantly) yesterday.  Those closed at $1.50 and have a delta of .74 so, hopefully, we'll cash out better than even and, as we are on a mission to cash out our open positions even and keep our realized profits, that's going to be fine with us!. 

    Cycles/ZZ – I think, in the larger term, we are stabilizing from the big crash but, unfortunately, stable should be around 1,450 on the S&P, not 1,650.  This is like if you pull a ship underwater in the bathtub, down to the bottom but it's full of air (stimulus) and you let it go and it rises back up and, in fact, goes HIGHER than the surface of the water.  That's where we are now, because the ship went back to the top and even higher – people are extrapolating that the ship can now fly.  That's the difference between TA people and Fundamentalists in a nutshell. 

    Frankly, I think that the end of QE, once the initial shock to the system wears off, will be just what we need to get the economy going as people with savings will begin to get a return on their money and banks, who are sitting on virtually all of the money the Fed has been printing, will finally be forced to actually LEND some of that money out to generate their own income.  Once that massive pile of freshly printed money finally begins to move through the economy, we can hopefully get into a more virtuous cycle.  

    So that's how I reconcile the two and that's what keeps me long-term bullish.  

    Thanks for Fisher Equation – very good for people to understand.  

    Oil/Burr -Well, we did with our USO/SCO plays.  

    Gold/Jfaw – I don't think we get there ($1,100).  The macro is that the drop in gold (for various reasons) caused the massive sell-off in GLD that I've been predicting for years and that flooded the market with physical gold.  Now GLD is about 50% depleted so I don't see it going to zero and, even if 25%, then they can only dump half as much gold going forward as they dumped in the first half of this year, which began at $1,700.  So $350 ($400 today) and another 50% would be $1,100 at worst.  $1,100 is also the point at which most miners lose money extracting gold and, if you've ever seen a gold mining operation, you know they'll shut down long before that happens.  So I think $1,200-$1,250 is worst case and, once GLD is forced back to buying – things can turn around very quickly as the physical market is very tight.  Those are all factors that have nothing to do with inflation or investor confidence or global conflict, which can also drive the price up very quickly. 





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Zero Hedge

Lumber Is Liquidating

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The most economically-sensitive commodity is plunging once again. Lumber prices have cratered today to their lowest since June 2013, seemingly tracking the collapse in US Macro data over the last 2 months. First it was Lumber Liquidators, and now the underlying is seeing the biggest weekly drop in six months (and down 5 weeks in a row). As a reminder, the last time lumber and stocks diverged like this... it did not end well...

First it was Lumber Liquidators...

Timberrrr.....

...

more from Tyler

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Phil's Favorites

Diving Into the Payroll Report: Establishment +295K Jobs; Household +96K Employment, Labor Force -178K

Courtesy of Mish.

Initial Reaction

Once again we see the pattern of a strong establishment survey but a poor household survey. The latter varies more widely, and the tendency is for one to catch up to the other, over time. The question, as always, is which way?

Here is one stat that really stands out: The unemployment rate for teenagers 16-19 fell 1.7 percentage points. BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +295,000 - Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +96,000 - Household Survey
  • Unemployment: -274,000 - Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: -175,000 - Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: +15,000 - Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.2 at 5.5% - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.3 to 11.0% - Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institut...



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Chart School

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.6, unchanged from the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.6, down from the previous week's -4.5 but off the interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.

"The Song Remains the Same"

The title for the ECRI's latest public report (full report requires a subscription) illustrates the shrinking GDP growth during the seven business cycle expansions since 1970:

For a long time, nearly four decades, growth has been getting progressively weaker durin...



more from Chart School

Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: Utilities

Kimble Charts: Utilities

By Ilene

Chris Kimble shared his chart of the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF, XLU, with us.

The one month performance inset shows XLU’s uninspiring performance compared to every other ETF on the list. However, the rather steep bullish falling wedge pattern says that it may be time for a bounce.

[Click on chart to enlarge]

Chris likes XLU for a short-term bounce off the 200 day moving average at $44. One way to play this setup is to buy the XLU outright. Chris suggests a 3% stop loss on the shares.

Another bullish play is to use options in a strategy designed by Phil:

1. Buy the XL...



more from Paul

Option Review

Alibaba Options In Focus

Options volume on Alibaba Group Holdings is poised to end at the session at approximately three times the average daily level, with volume in BABA contracts approaching 300,000 contracts versus average daily volume of 105,000 contracts and less than 30 minutes to go before the closing bell. Shares in BABA are down 3.0% as of the time of this writing to stand at $81.50, off the intraday and fresh 52-week low of $80.03 set earlier this afternoon.

Across all available expiries, the 80.0 strike put options are seeing notable activity, with cumulative volume in excess of 30,000 contracts. As for trading in BABA...



more from Caitlin

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks break out again but may be running on fumes

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite low trading volume, a strong dollar, mixed economic and earnings reports, paralyzing weather conditions throughout much of the U.S., and ominous global news events, stocks continue to march ever higher. The world remains on edge about potential Black Swan events from the likes of Russia, Greece, or ISIS (or lone wolf extremists). Moreover, the economic recovery of the U.S. may be feeling the pull of the proverbial ball-and-chain from the rest of the world’s economies. Nevertheless, awash in investable cash, global investors see few choices better than U.S. equities.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then ...



more from Sabrient

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 2nd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Digital Currencies

MyCoin Exchange Disappears with Up To $387 Million, Reports Claim

Follow up from yesterday's Just the latest Bitcoin scam.

Hong Kong's MyCoin Disappears With Up To $387 Million, Reports Claim By  

Reports are emerging from Hong Kong that local bitcoin exchange MyCoin has shut its doors, taking with it possibly as much as HK$3bn ($386.9m) in investor funds.

If true, the supposed losses are a staggering amount, although this estimate is based on the company's own earlier claims that it served 3,000 clients who had invested HK$1m ($129,000) each.

...



more from Bitcoin

Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

more from SWW

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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