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  1. phil

    Good morning! 

    Watch out for the irrational exuberance in the Futures.  So what, C had nice earnings?  That's not enough but monkey-boy Cramer is in a suit and pumping his heart out so let's wait and see what happens when there's real action before we call it anything but a blip!  

    Watch those MoMos – if they can't keep it going, I doubt the broader market will.  And, of course, watch those weak bounce lines.  Anything less than that is…. weak.

    NYSE/Button – Thanks!  

    JNJ/Louis – I am leaning towards selling but I'd still like to see what they do first.  When I said I want to wait until next week on Friday, I didn't mean 9:39 on Monday morning…

    CNBC is spinning their asses off – makes me really nervous the way they are digging for a bullish take on every shred of news.  Take Retail Sales, for example, you would think we won the superbowl off these numbers:

     
    • Mar. Retail Sales: +1.1% vs. +1.0% expected, +0.7% prior (revised).
    • Ex-auto +0.7% vs. +0.5% expected, +0.3% prior.

    If you look closely at the report, March gasoline sales were up 12.5% as prices shot up and, of course, ex-auto, that $5Bn difference adds 1.6% to the entire report.  We KNOW it wasn't demand-based, because we pay attention to the inventory reports and that means that retail sales, are in fact NEGATIVE and not at all the home run CNBC and the other promotional media outlets would have you believe.  

    Don't take any wooden nickels!  





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ValueWalk

UBS Donations To Clinton Foundation Upped After 2009 Swiss Deal

By Clayton Browne. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It might just be coincidental timing, but it sure looks bad. You can make excuses until you're blue in the face, but the fact that banking giant UBS AG (NYSE:UBS)'s donations to the Clinton Foundation suddenly increased dramatically after Hillary negotiated a favorable settlement for UBS in a dispute with the U.S. IRS regarding disclosure of tax evaders does not pass the smell test. When you throw in the fact that within a year or so UBS then partnered with the foundation for an inner-city loan program and paid Bill Clinton $1.5 million to join in a series of question-and-answer sessions with UBS Wealth Management Chief Exe...



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Zero Hedge

LinkedIn Pumps'n'Dumps As Revenue Growth Rate Continues To Slow

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Despite early exuberance at beating top and bottom lines (and users), it appears those looking for hyper-growth opportunities are selling into the machines. An initial 12% spike in the stock after hours has been completely destroyed into the red as investors realize growth rates continue to tumble, capex is rising, and organic growth is slow.

Pump... and Dump!

as Revenue growth rates continue to tumble...

...



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Phil's Favorites

GDP Bounce: Disappointing Mixed Bag of Expectations and Revisions; Where to From Here?

Courtesy of Mish.

This morning, the BEA reported Second Quarter GDP was 2.3%.

2.3% was at the low end of the Consensus Range of 1.9% to 3.5%. On the plus side, first quarter was revised way higher.

Revisions

  • First quarter 2015 revised up from -0.2% to +0.6%
  • 2013 GDP revised lower from 2.2% to 1.5%
  • 2012 GDP revised lower from 2.3% to 2.2%

Evolution of First Quarter 2015 GDP

  • +0.2% Initial
  • -0.7% Revised
  • -0.2% Revised
  • +0.6% Revised

GDP is the most lagging of all indicators. By ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The bull market is coming to an end (Business Insider)

No one knows to what still crazier level this stock market is headed, or what kind of decline – if any ever, the bulls say – it will experience. But we all have our signs and signals that we keep our eyes on, hoping to get the drift in time.

No one wants to go through another crash like the last three (1987, 2000, and 2008 which all occurred during my investing years) with any significant amount money tied up in stocks (not to speak of bonds).

Post-Coup Thailand Sees Economic Slump Putting Press...



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Chart School

Second Day of Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

Another round of buying swept through Large Cap indices, but other indices didn't enjoy the same level of interest.

The S&P had the best of it. Since the middle of July it has enjoyed a strong advance relative to Small Caps and Technology indices, but it may be time for it to revert to mean. Technicals are a little scrappy, but are holding to the bearish side, but one more day of gains could swing it back in bulls favour.


The Nasdaq banked a small gain, but it's up against the big red candlestick from last week. The 'bull trap' is still in play. Technicals are mixed here too.

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Travel indicator being put to critical tests

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The American Economy is driven a good deal by the consumer.

The table below reflects that nearly 70% of GDP is based consumption.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The 4-pack below looks at consumption with a focus on the travel and leisure sector, by looking at Avis (CAR), Hertz (HTZ), Expedia (EXPE) and Priceline (PCLN).

CLICK ON CHART ABOVE TO ENLARGE

While many seem to be occupied by the news abou...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Gold Spikes Back Above $1100, Bitcoin Jumps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...

Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom

...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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