Courtesy of Doug Short.
The pre-market announcement of new jobless claims continues to beat expectations with its four-week moving average now the lowest since early October of 2007, two months before the last recession. Despite the good claims number, the S&P 500 opened fractionally lower with some options expiration volume and sold off to its modest -0.30% intraday low 25 minutes later. The index slowly recovered to its 0.39% intraday high early in the final hour of trading. It closed with a trimmed gain of 0.14%, the fourth day of gains and a hefty 2.71% advance for the holiday-shortened week — the best weekly since the week after Independence Day in 2013.
The yield on the 10-year note finished at 2.73%, up 8 bps from yesterday’s close and 13 bps off the 2014 low of 2.60%.
Here is a snapshot of the four-day week.
Here is a daily chart of the SPY ETF. Although many commentators have warned of growing market exuberance, a look at the volume bars shows that trading has generally been much higher on declines.
The S&P 500 is now up 0.89% for 2014.
Here is a longer perspective, starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
