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Friday, March 29, 2024

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    Oil flying to $103 but /NG laying there at $4.46.  Maybe a flush ahead of inventory but very dangerous to play.  Usually, nat gas moves maybe .05 in a day – it's been up and down $1.50 in the last 10 – all sorts of margin calls going on and it does remind me of the time those hedge funds blew up on Nat Gas trading.  

    Dollar just got rejected at 80.50 but did pop to 80.60 before that.  We'll see if 80.40 holds.  Yellen's last speech sent us down from 80.90 that Tuesday back to 80 on Friday's close.  We're exactly half bounced since.  

    SHLD rocked earnings – also losing less than expected.  Up 8%.  People are starting to figure out the real estate play, I think.  

    Rates/StJ – What's scary about that chart is that Italy is in the G8!   Not that Russia's any sounder…

    Buffett/StJ – I think the main point is it's an indicator Buffett talked about 40 years ago in a book and the World may have moved on a bit since then.  I doubt Buffett himself is even using it anymore.  It's the same as when people talk about a bank being bigger than someone's GDP – the bank isn't really attached to the local economy that way – if they are an IBank who does business all over the World, then it's no different than Samsung being 25% of S Korea's GDP – it's a benefit to the country and, if they fail, the country doesn't have an obligation to bail them out (though systemic risk can force the issue).  Iceland's banks were 10x bigger than their GDP and Iceland told them to F off when they failed and Iceland recovered as well as any other nation after the crash – WITHOUT any crazy stimulus or bailouts.  

    BIDU all over the place.  



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