6.9 C
New York
Friday, March 29, 2024

Comment by phil

View Single Comment

  1. phil

    Good morning!

    S&P failing 1,860 (/ES) makes a good shorting line (with tight stops over).  Should be confirmed by /YM below 16,350 and /TF below 1,134.  

    Oil $103.23 (June /CL), gold $1,290 off $1,285, silver $19.43 off $19.30, copper $3.04 rejected at $3.05, Nat gas flatlined at $4.75 all weekend and gasoline $3.05 with the Dollar at 79.95.

    [image]CNBC has a guest host predicting 2,014 on the S&P for 2,014 and the WSJ is touting the lasting recovery on their cover so that's the spin for the day and today will be another very low-volume day so it won't mean a thing and the show can go on – at least until tomorrow. 

    I think it's time to short WYNN again ($208) – not that I ever thought it shouldn't be shorted over $200 but now we have this:

    • Sterne Agee forecasts Macau gaming revenue will grow 5% to 10% in April after the first two weeks of the month came in below expectations.
    • The investment firm maintains its longer-term view on Macau casino revenue growth despite the early April hiccup.
    • Macau related stocks: MPELMGMWYNNLVSGXYEFSJMHF.

    Earnings should be this week but I don't see a date and the options are really expensive so maybe not a play since Q1 earnings should have been pretty good but, after that, a short might be nice.  I visited most of the casinos in AC this weekend and the Trump Plaza is run-down and neglected and empty and understaffed but the Trump Taj Mahal is where they seem to be putting their money – it was very nice.  All the CZR properties were busy but they were hosting the World Series of Poker this weekend, so hard to say what the trend is but I was impressed by the very good use of money to spruce up all 4 of their hotels.  

    Even Revel was busy (they almost went BK) and a surprising amount of families at the hotels – that's unusual for Atlantic City.  

    CZR is back where we like to own them ($18) and 2016 $12.50 puts can be sold for $3.20 and those pay for the $15/22.50 bull call spread at $3.40 for net .20 on the $7.50 spread.  Since your net entry is $12.70, even ordinary margin is just $6.35 but TOS only charges $1.55 so the short puts alone are very margin-efficient as well. 

    Let's put 10 of those spreads into the Income Portfolio!

    Sam & Ralph – When Jackie was little she pointed out to me that Sam was not, as I claimed, Wile E. Coyote because he had a red nose.



Stay Connected

157,450FansLike
396,312FollowersFollow
2,280SubscribersSubscribe

Latest Articles